Are CDs a preview to what's gonna happen to Blu-rays?

[David McMinn]

It seems to me I've heard this before. Like LP (records) going the way of the doo doo (sp?). It seems to me records are strong and have made a comeback of sorts. I just purchased 3 cd's this month from Screen Archives Entertainment. What bothers me is what happens me when my iPod dies. I here the iPod is non existent even though you can purchase used one on eBay are Amazon market place. If they stop making the players that play them, then we have a problem.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by DVD Phreak

To your point about the industry not spending more money than it has to, sometimes you spend money to save money -- such as not having to make Blu-rays when streaming videos equal or exceed their quality (which will happen, I assure you).

If better picture quality was the only reason that people bought physical media then DVDs wouldn't continue to be the best selling form of physical media. Regardless of how good streaming looks there will always be a market for physical media. Increasing spending on bandwidth absolutely will not save money.

Originally Posted by DVD Phreak

To your point about the public only cares about resolution, the public DOESN'T have to like any new tech for a tech to thrive. Did the public clamor for candy-bar phones when iPhone came out, when most people still loved their flip phones and Blackberrys? When it comes to potentially transformational technology, the public is quite passive, I'm afraid. Did the public "ask" for the Internet, DVDs, Blu-rays? When a breakthrough occurs, it changes everyone's thinking. Prisoner-of-the-moment thinking sometimes fails us all.

All of those things are new technologies that companies could charge high amounts for. No streaming companies have ever charged extra for access to higher bitrates (without increasing resolution). If they increased bitrates they'd be spending drastically more money on bandwidth without making any more income from their customers. It doesn't make any business sense for them to do that.

If people want expensive high bitrate downloads that option already exists: Kaleidescape. But it is way less popular because most people don't care about high bitrates. High bitrate streaming and downloads will always be a niche just like 4K Blu-ray is.

[DVD Phreak]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

If better picture quality was the only reason that people bought physical media then DVDs wouldn't continue to be the best selling form of physical media. Regardless of how good streaming looks there will always be a market for physical media. Increasing spending on bandwidth absolutely will not save money.



All of those things are new technologies that companies could charge high amounts for. No streaming companies have ever charged extra for access to higher bitrates (without increasing resolution). If they increased bitrates they'd be spending drastically more money on bandwidth without making any more income from their customers. It doesn't make any business sense for them to do that.

If people want expensive high bitrate downloads that option already exists: Kaleidescape. But it is way less popular because most people don't care about high bitrates. High bitrate streaming and downloads will always be a niche just like 4K Blu-ray is.

The whole physical media industry has been in decline compared to streaming so it doesn't matter how "well" DVDs sell. DVDs outsell other types of discs (a debatable point) the same way Juliet outlives Romeo. A tech doesn't have to completely disappear to become "essentially obsolete." Vinyls are outselling CDs too, by the way.

Again, Netflix wouldn't be spending much on high bandwidth if bandwidth weren't expensive in the first place. When we had dial-up, ISDN was expensive. When we had DSL, cable was expensive. And on and on.

To your point about companies always charging a lot for new tech, it's not so much what they charge, but whether the market is ready for the tech or not. If the tech ends up taking over the industry, it won't matter what it will cost. What we pay for it will become moot because we will all be using it! It's a pretty good bet that when streaming speed finally reaches the 30Mbps range, Blu-ray's days will be numbered.

Movie download services don't work because they are too inconvenient for users. Besides quality, users want convenience of content delivery the most. Another reason why high Internet speed = streaming speed approaching Blu-ray's = Blu-ray becoming obsolete. This example is not really about the public rejecting high bitrates.

[slimjean]

Originally Posted by Blastar

CDs have become highly impractical, so it's not really surprising they are almost all but gone as a format.

We're talking about a disc that holds roughly ~700 MB of data, which is a pretty measly amount of storage. They take up a fair amount of space (granted way less then Vinyl) unless you are putting them in special carrying cases. Reality is most can easily store their entire music library (or at least their favorites) on a smartphone these days. They serve no real utility other then "good feels".


Movies/TV shows are a little different though...

1. Movies (especially in high quality) take up a lot of space. Until we reach Petabytes of cheap storage or compression becomes astoundingly simple and efficient - discs will remain sensible as storage. They are also relatively inexpensive.

The biggest downside of discs is their read speed, but for video playback it's generally fine anyways. I kind of doubt we'll see a transition of media to flash drives or an equivalent, but you never know.


2. License rights are always changing. If you want to watch a particular something it may not be readily available, even on the internet. This is hands down the biggest reason to purchase home media. Sadly a lot of people today errantly believe everything will just be available always, easily, and cheaply. Streaming will eventually become more expensive then cable ever was (sort of is). Possibly more obnoxious too.

The deciding factor in the future will really be the ease of acquiring digital copies, keeping them, and whether additional content (extras) are provided to make them more then glorified rentals.


3. Streaming is far from perfect. It's almost never been my experience to watch a movie at 100% perfect resolution start to finish. Also a lot of people can't stream 4K and won't be able to. 5G in theory is cool, but it has a real distance problem. That limitation my be overcome sometime, but likely only in larger metros. Also Gbps connections still aren't common. And even with all the bandwidth in the world, interruptions will remain a thing.

So while a disc is "archaic" it's also very reliable (usually if made for and cared for well). Tapes and HDDs will remain a storage medium for this very reason. Most don't know that SSDs have a much more finite lifespan of use (~20 years).


Movie collecting really has always been a niche though. Most folks really only bought movies and shows in the day (90s-00s), cause they couldn't rent them or didn't know they could rent them. Or it was more convenient to own then to try and rent a copy as needed.


Blu-ray will die and become wholly irrelevant and obsolete someday, but it is not this day!

Whatever. I burn my music to bluray with great artwork. Do complete catalogs on one disc in chrono order. Play all day with seamless uncompressed goodness.

Same as in my car bluray player.

[BijouMan]

Physical media will always be advantageous in that it holds value and can be resold, whereas with digital media, once it is purchased, it can never be resold, meaning the money will forever be gone. This is especially true with rare limited editions which can be purchased from the secondhand market, enjoyed, then resold at little to no loss.

[mep]

I personally think BDs will not go the way CDs are currently going, I think it’s more likely BDs will be the physical collectors item for cinephiles for the foreseeable future. So more comparable to Vinyl, not to CD. Don’t think this would change, even if the quality of streaming would significantly increase. For me because of three main reasons:

1. Collectors like to own products that hold some kind of internal value for them. You never own anything on streaming, you are always only renting. So it will never be a Collectors market and I still think we will always have passionate collectors regarding certain art forms.

2. Physical Media future proves your access to content unaltered. You will never get that from modern Streaming Services.

3. Streaming Services are mostly interested in new content that drives subscriptions. They will never be interested in more obscure or backcatalog titles like the current physical boutique labels are. You will never find definitive editions on Streaming Services like you get from the current physical boutique labels. Streaming Services will never be interested in creating or licensing bonus material in a way the current collectors centered physical boutique labels are.

Therefore I would think that BDs will be the new Vinyl, not the new CD.

Said that, I don’t collect Vinyl. I still collect CD…

[dcx4610]

The DVD thing is more bizarre to me than anything else. Apparently DVDs are still outselling Blu-rays by a healthy margin.

I go to a local huge used media store quite often and hear a lot of interesting conversations and get to see certain things. I saw one couple that couldn't have been more than their 30s looking at the action section. They found a title they wanted but it was on Blu-ray. To paraphrase, they said something like "This says Blu-ray + DVD? What does that mean? We have DVD." and then ultimately put it back on the shelf.

There's also this massive DVD bin that people go rabid over in the same store. Granted, the movies are 25c or most most $1.

I wish the industry had better marketing to let these people know that they can buy these DVD/Blu-ray combo packs and they can still play their existing DVDs on a Blu-ray player.

It seems a lot of people simply didn't upgrade to Blu-ray because they thought their DVDs would no longer work and didn't want to start over again.

[mep]

Originally Posted by dcx4610

The DVD thing is more bizarre to me than anything else. Apparently DVDs are still outselling Blu-rays by a healthy margin.

I go to a local huge used media store quite often and hear a lot of interesting conversations and get to see certain things. I saw one couple that couldn't have been more than their 30s looking at the action section. They found a title they wanted but it was on Blu-ray. To paraphrase, they said something like "This says Blu-ray + DVD? What does that mean? We have DVD." and then ultimately put it back on the shelf.

There's also this massive DVD bin that people go rabid over in the same store. Granted, the movies are 25c or most most $1.

I wish the industry had better marketing to let these people know that they can buy these DVD/Blu-ray combo packs and they can still play their existing DVDs on a Blu-ray player.

It seems a lot of people simply didn't upgrade to Blu-ray because they thought their DVDs would no longer work and didn't want to start over again.

I don’t think the normal consumer went on from DVD to BD and they missed the time-frame when this transition could have been possible, because of the Format war between BD and HD DVD. Afterwards Streaming was already on the rise and the younger generation isn’t interested in physical media anymore. So the transition was not from one physical medium to the next, it went directly to streaming.

But DVD was such a massive success, that it still remains a broad enough user base to outsell BD even now. But I personally think that DVD Sales will demise more and more the upcoming years and BD sales will keep being steady like Vinyl vs. CD.

[ham6817]

Some people i know can't understand owning physical media looks better on the screen vs streaming.

[BijouMan]

Originally Posted by dcx4610

The DVD thing is more bizarre to me than anything else. Apparently DVDs are still outselling Blu-rays by a healthy margin.

I go to a local huge used media store quite often and hear a lot of interesting conversations and get to see certain things. I saw one couple that couldn't have been more than their 30s looking at the action section. They found a title they wanted but it was on Blu-ray. To paraphrase, they said something like "This says Blu-ray + DVD? What does that mean? We have DVD." and then ultimately put it back on the shelf.

There's also this massive DVD bin that people go rabid over in the same store. Granted, the movies are 25c or most most $1.

I wish the industry had better marketing to let these people know that they can buy these DVD/Blu-ray combo packs and they can still play their existing DVDs on a Blu-ray player.

It seems a lot of people simply didn't upgrade to Blu-ray because they thought their DVDs would no longer work and didn't want to start over again.

"Blu-ray + DVD" means the package includes a Blu-ray and a DVD.

My local used media store has a UHD Blu-ray section which is tiny compared to the Blu-ray section which is absolutely tiny compared to the DVDs which are all over the store. They also sell games, etc.

[Shane Rollins]

Originally Posted by BijouMan

"Blu-ray + DVD" means the package includes a Blu-ray and a DVD.

Thanks Captain Obvious. Someone needs to go tell them that. If they seriously don’t know what a combo pack is by now, that’s sad.

Originally Posted by BijouMan

My local used media store has a UHD Blu-ray section which is tiny compared to the Blu-ray section which is absolutely tiny compared to the DVDs which are all over the store. They also sell games, etc.

I have yet to see used 4Ks in a store. I remember when Goodwill started having used DVDs around 2005-2006ish, and they were locked behind the counter in one of those electric jewelry cases. They were literally $10+ each. Now they’re $1-$2 each. Blu-rays and HD-DVDs are all less than $5 unless it’s a box set. Give it time though, because 4K is still a niche within a niche within a niche. Just like Beta, CED, and laserdiscs pop up every now and then, 4Ks will begin to pop up too.

[Shane Rollins]

Originally Posted by mep

I don’t think the normal consumer went on from DVD to BD and they missed the time-frame when this transition could have been possible, because of the Format war between BD and HD DVD. Afterwards Streaming was already on the rise and the younger generation isn’t interested in physical media anymore. So the transition was not from one physical medium to the next, it went directly to streaming.

But DVD was such a massive success, that it still remains a broad enough user base to outsell BD even now. But I personally think that DVD Sales will demise more and more the upcoming years and BD sales will keep being steady like Vinyl vs. CD.

Considering Toshiba’s HD-DVD was pretty much dead on arrival, had Blu-ray been marketed by anyone but Sony, or had Sony not put Blu-ray players in the PS3s, Blu-ray would be even more of a niche at best and nonexistent at worst. That decision, which actually caused a $3 billion loss for Sony, wound up winning them the format war and negating their loss almost instantly. Also, DVDs play in a lot of devices, not just DVD players. Blu-ray and HD-DVD play in less devices than DVDs do. 4K Blu-rays play in less devices than standard Blu-rays do. Considering Sony has a history of bad decisions with formats (first they didn’t market U-Matic, which would have given them the home video market early on; then they wouldn’t compromise quality on Beta and it killed the format, then they created Hi-8 and it never took off), it’s a miracle they finally made the right decision, or we may very well not have physical media anymore.

[Shane Rollins]

Originally Posted by ham6817

Some people i know can't understand owning physical media looks better on the screen vs streaming.

If VHS, Doordash, Wall-E, and McDonald’s taught us anything, it’s that people prefer convenience over quality.

[BijouMan]

Originally Posted by Shane Rollins

Considering Toshiba’s HD-DVD was pretty much dead on arrival, had Blu-ray been marketed by anyone but Sony, or had Sony not put Blu-ray players in the PS3s, Blu-ray would be even more of a niche at best and nonexistent at worst. That decision, which actually caused a $3 billion loss for Sony, wound up winning them the format war and negating their loss almost instantly. Also, DVDs play in a lot of devices, not just DVD players. Blu-ray and HD-DVD play in less devices than DVDs do. 4K Blu-rays play in less devices than standard Blu-rays do. Considering Sony has a history of bad decisions with formats (first they didn’t market U-Matic, which would have given them the home video market early on; then they wouldn’t compromise quality on Beta and it killed the format, then they created Hi-8 and it never took off), it’s a miracle they finally made the right decision, or we may very well not have physical media anymore.

Had HD DVD (no, it’s not HD-DVD) won the format war, guess what we would’ve had now…

[Show spoiler]…UHD DVD!!!

Also, Video8 and the later Hi8 (not Hi-8) was very popular in camcorders. So popular, in fact, that Sony later developed Digital8 which records DV-format video onto a Hi8 tape, and most of the camcorders can play back Video8 and Hi8 tapes and transfer them directly to a computer using FireWire, or as Sony calls it, i.LINK.

Blu-ray will always be the future!!! A disc read with a blue laser is the most futuristic thing ever!!! As are the sounds the players make!!! And the logo, too!!!

Although when it comes to commercial aviation, the future already happened 45 years ago, and 27 years later we went back to the present. But don't worry, it'll happen again before this decade is out.

[Alister_M]

Originally Posted by Shane Rollins

If VHS, Doordash, Wall-E, and McDonald’s taught us anything, it’s that people prefer convenience over quality.

Joe and Jane Sixpack are morons, always have been. The people who stream everything now are the same people who used to ask to borrow your LPs and CDs so they could copy them to cassette, or rented a VHS from the store and copied it to another tape. Ownership of media was an odd blip on the masses radar in the early 2000s when DVDs replaced the bulky inconvenience of VHS, but then they moved on to the next convenience which is streaming (and before that, mass piracy). Part of that was because DVDs are completely unsuitable for the rental market as they're too easily damaged. True collectors will always be a niche market, but they'll always demand a physical product for superior quality, no matter how much digital snake-oil salesmen and their easily-fooled acolytes will try to convince us that their poorly compressed crap is even remotely comparable.

[meremortal]

Originally Posted by ham6817

Some people i know can't understand owning physical media looks better on the screen vs streaming.

I'm not sure if I could reliably pick out a blu from a decent quality stream in a double blind type testing as they are playing in motion and assuming they're sharing the same master. The differences can look a lot more dramatic when doing A/B comparisons with screengrabs on a computer screen. For example, I often think dvds look way worse in still frames. I'd also imagine the typical person watching a movie may be using both a smaller screen and/or sitting a bit further back than folks reading this thread.

[Pondosinatra]

Ya, I wonder if in a decade we're on a website called...say...Streaming.com

And there's a thread there called...say...Official Blu-ray Thread.

And we'll be on there talking about how our Blu-ray copy of a given movie is better because it uses the original soundtrack, or complaining that we can't get parts for our broken down players, or waxing nostalgic for the days you used to get slipcovers.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Alister_M

Joe and Jane Sixpack are morons, always have been. The people who stream everything now are the same people who used to ask to borrow your LPs and CDs so they could copy them to cassette, or rented a VHS from the store and copied it to another tape. Ownership of media was an odd blip on the masses radar in the early 2000s when DVDs replaced the bulky inconvenience of VHS, but then they moved on to the next convenience which is streaming (and before that, mass piracy). Part of that was because DVDs are completely unsuitable for the rental market as they're too easily damaged. True collectors will always be a niche market, but they'll always demand a physical product for superior quality, no matter how much digital snake-oil salesmen and their easily-fooled acolytes will try to convince us that their poorly compressed crap is even remotely comparable.

It doesn't have to be "remotely comparable." All it has to be is . . . good enough. Mission accomplished

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Ya, I wonder if in a decade we're on a website called...say...Streaming.com

And there's a thread there called...say...Official Blu-ray Thread.

And we'll be on there talking about how our Blu-ray copy of a given movie is better because it uses the original soundtrack, or complaining that we can't get parts for our broken down players, or waxing nostalgic for the days you used to get slipcovers.

4K Ultra HD Blu-ray: The Collector’s Format

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/4k-dis...ectors-format/


Discs Keep Spinning

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/discs-keep-spinning/

[Hypnosifl]

Originally Posted by Shane Rollins

While a dream come true would be for streaming music and movies to collapse like the digital book/Kindle/Nook market did, that seems like a pipe dream at this point.

ebook sales haven't collapsed, just decreased somewhat from their 2013 high and have been fairly constant for the last five years. I'm glad the option exists since my room is already overflowing with books! Similarly I wouldn't want streaming music and TV/movies to collapse, I don't want them to cause a collapse in physical media but it doesn't have to be an either/or.

I always buy physical when it's available at equal resolution to streaming, but there are plenty of cases where studios will make HD versions of something available on streaming even though it apparently isn't sufficiently profitable for them to release it as a blu-ray (likewise you sometime see things in 4K streaming that are only available physically as standard blu-rays). And as for music, some streaming services like Pandora are inferior, but ABX tests show that large majorities of people can't tell the difference between high-quality iTunes type digital downloads and higher-bitrate music if they don't know in advance which one they're listening to.