Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Maybe you should check your facts before you post. From the DEG End Of 2019 Report:

Maybe you should read that paragraph entirely with actual comprehension before making such a poorly considered reply?

The statistics that I cited in my post are from the Digital Entertainment Group reports. I posted the link to the 2019 report specifically which is more than you could be bothered to do:

Originally Posted by Vilya

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

^If you had actually read that report, you would have seen that total video on demand revenue was down 6.19% for the year: I made no mention of video on demand revenue at all in my previous post, but as you decided to bring it up in your reply I am quoting what the report had to say about it now:



My usage of the phrase "all sales" means all sales revenue from every purchase category, their summation and their grand total, and that is plainly obvious when reading the very next sentence in that paragraph:

Originally Posted by Vilya

All sales of video content are in decline. Overall purchases, both disc and digital combined, have been in decline every single year since 2011. Rentals, mostly in the form of subscription streaming, is where the substantial growth has occurred. Again, as has been pointed out several times, digital sales have never overtaken those of disc.

In 2011, overall combined sales were $9.505 billion. In 2019, overall combined sales were just $5.867 billion. Overall combined sales are down 38.2%. The growth in 4K disc sales has not reversed this decline and the anemic growth in digital sales have done far less to stem this drop in sales. Growth in 4K disc sales last year was approx. 15% while digital sales grew a mere 5.12% and despite this overall combined sales still dropped; it amounts to nothing more than each having a bigger slice of a shrinking pie.

^I not only cited last year's rise in digital sales, the same as you did, I also cited the rise in 4K disc sales in the very next paragraph. It is beyond obvious that I am discussing total sales revenue here as I specifically mention the only two areas where it grew and that despite that growth, overall sales revenue still declined. I am illustrating that overall video content purchases are dropping as consumers shift to subscription streaming. There is not one single fact that is incorrect in my post; every statistic is from the same source that you referenced. The only confusion stems from how you interpreted what I meant by "all sales."

You might have noticed all of this had you read my post completely rather than just that one sentence that you chose to fixate upon. I have read many of your posts in several threads and I know that you are usually sharper than this.

Overall combined sales were $5.876 billion in 2019. In 2018, they were $6.494 billion. In 2017, they were $6.870 billion. In 2016, they were $7.501 billion. The steady decline year over year is abundantly obvious. In 2011, overall combined sales were $9.505 billion. 4K disc sales have not stopped this decline and neither have digital sales. Again, overall sales of both disc and digital combined have fallen 38.2% since 2011.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

People are buying less content as their preference increasingly favors the cheap "all you can eat" option that is subscription streaming.

Total digital revenue was $20.439 billion in 2019. Subscription streaming totaled $15.898 billion. Subscription streaming revenue was 78.83% of all digital revenue. Digital sales were just 12.64% of total digital revenue and video on demand was a mere 9.58% of total digital revenue. Subscription streaming was where the lion's share of digital revenue was derived and that was where the only strong growth (23.73%) occurred.

The whole point being that more people are renting content instead of buying it. The vast majority of them are renting it in the form of subscription streaming and Vudu is not an SVOD.

Walmart is likely selling Vudu because they see it as an under performing property; tepid digital sales growth (5.12%) and declining video on demand revenue (down 6.19% in 2019) are apparently just not worth their effort. Companies do not sell their winning assets, but they do look to liquidate their lackluster ones.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

All true. In fact by the end of 2021 there is a very good chance that EST will be higher than physical sales if the growth of EST and the sharp decline of physical continues. Only $600 million separates them as of 12/31/2019.

EST will likely overtake disc sales by the end of 2021, but overall combined sales, disc plus digital, will still continue to drop.

People are buying less and subscribing more.

Check your facts and your arithmetic; the difference between disc sales and digital sales in 2019 was $709.24 million. Disc sales were $3.29265 billion and digital sales were $2.58341 billion. Maybe you should check your own facts before asking anyone else to check theirs? Your statement is incorrect by a full 18.21%.

These might be of help to you:

https://www.online-calculator.com/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Like people have said before, it’s just a bigger slice of a shrinking cake. Not sure what your point is here? Unless you are getting unduly excited about a dead in the water format that can’t hope to compete with subscription streaming. EST, Evaporating streaming trash.

That gave me a good laugh!

[Vilya]

Here's a Walmart anecdote especially for alchav as he values anecdotes above any mere factual industry data:

My local super duper Walmart no longer sells digital codes for movies. They dabbled in offering those little cards with movie codes on them for a brief time, but they are all gone now along with the displays that held them. By alchavian "logic" that can only mean that no one wants digital codes. Digital codes certainly "evaporated" from my local Walmart.

But guess what they still sell on displays that are as large as ever? They still sell DVDs, blu-rays, and 4K discs. My local Walmart knew which to keep and which to dump.

[Steedeel]

Vilya, I was thinking about our discussion last year when watching tv last night. A host was suggesting to a Climate warrior that if they are to be taken seriously, they need to lead by example and get rid of their petrol car and TV set, laptop and tablet. My goodness, that type of conversation makes me very nervous!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

That gave me a good laugh!

I do my best.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Maybe you should check your facts before you post. From the DEG End Of 2019 Report:

It appears you are still angry over HD-DVD losing the HD disc war. It has been about 12 years now since the demise of HD-DVD so you should be getting over your hate for anything Blu-ray.

[stonesfan129]

Now that Walmart is in talks to sell VUDU to Comcast (FandangoNow), I may just switch back to discs. The AppleTV app on my Roku Ultra is nice but it doesn't give you the iTunes Extras.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

You are the only person that I have come across that can not do simple arithmetic.

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Maybe you should check your facts before you post. From the DEG End Of 2019 Report:

Well I have another one that has math problems.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by wendell r. Breland

it appears you are still angry over hd-dvd losing the hd disc war. It has been about 12 years now since the demise of hd-dvd so you should be getting over your hate for anything blu-ray.

rotf lmfao!

[cminer72]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Here's a Walmart anecdote especially for alchav as he values anecdotes above any mere factual industry data:

My local super duper Walmart no longer sells digital codes for movies. They dabbled in offering those little cards with movie codes on them for a brief time, but they are all gone now along with the displays that held them. By alchavian "logic" that can only mean that no one wants digital codes. Digital codes certainly "evaporated" from my local Walmart.

But guess what they still sell on displays that are as large as ever? They still sell DVDs, blu-rays, and 4K discs. My local Walmart knew which to keep and which to dump.

What stupid logic. People who buy digital, purchase through devices. They don’t go to the store. That’s the whole point of buying digitally. Digital sales are and subscriptions are on the rise. Physical media is declining rapidly. You can’t change facts with bad logic.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cminer72

What stupid logic. People who buy digital, purchase through devices. They don’t go to the store. That’s the whole point of buying digitally. Digital sales are and subscriptions are on the rise. Physical media is declining rapidly. You can’t change facts with bad logic.

If you honestly think digital HD sales are healthy, I have some time share properties you may be interested in?

Even the industry have lost interest in digital HD. When was the last time you read about how excited the industry is about Digital HD? A clue, it’s a long long time ago. The type of growth we are seeing with Digital HD suggests it will peak very soon and that’s a very bad thing. Those single digits are just nowhere near good enough.

Subscription on the other hand is a success in terms of viewing figures. Even then, expect a lot of services with ads starting up in the next year or two. It will basically become just like cable tv.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cminer72

What stupid logic. People who buy digital, purchase through devices. They don’t go to the store. That’s the whole point of buying digitally. Digital sales are and subscriptions are on the rise. Physical media is declining rapidly. You can’t change facts with bad logic.

Of course it is stupid logic; anecdotes are not proof. They are statistically insignificant observations at best and they are often biased. They are mostly unverifiable, too, amounting to nothing more than hearsay.

The part of your post that I underlined is often true for those that buy discs as well. Many of us buy our discs online through our internet connected devices. The online selection is unrivaled and the best prices are often found online.

No one is refuting that disc sales are declining, but digital sales are growing slowly. In fact, their rate of growth has dropped sharply from 2018. In 2019, digital sales were up just 5.12%. In 2018, they were up 14.43%. Their highest rate of growth was in 2013 when they rose 47.12%.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

4K disc sales saw impressive growth rates for their first few years, too, even in triple digits, but last year they grew only about 15%.

Even though both digital sales and 4K disc sales have grown, overall total sales continue to drop; "All sell thru" includes both disc and digital sales:

All sell thru for 2019: $5.876 billion.
All sell thru for 2018: $6.494 billion.
All sell thru for 2017: $6.870 billion.
All sell thru for 2016: $7.501 billion.
All sell thru for 2015: $7.991 billion.
All sell thru for 2014: $8.486 billion.
All sell thru for 2013: $8.969 billion.
All sell thru for 2012: $9.274 billion.
All sell thru for 2011: $9.505 billion.

https://www.degonline.org/industry-data/

Overall purchases of video content, all sell thru, are in decline and the upticks in digital sales and 4K disc sales have done little to slow this inexorable year over year drop. All sell thru has dropped 38.2% since 2011.

Subscription streaming, on the other hand, has exploded:

In 2019, subscription streaming made $15.898 billion.
In 2011, subscription streaming made $00.994 billion.

Subscription streaming has increased 1499.4% since 2011 while overall purchases, all sell thru, declined 38.2% over that same period.

It is obvious where consumers are choosing to spend most of their home video entertainment money. And that choice is still linear pay TV, namely cable TV and satellite. In 2018, pay TV revenue was $119.6 billion. 2019 Pay TV revenue was projected to be $119.85 billion.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ca-since-2006/

[Wendell R. Breland]

Most everything in home entertainment has saturation points. Even Netflix is reaching saturation in the US.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Vilya, I was thinking about our discussion last year when watching tv last night. A host was suggesting to a Climate warrior that if they are to be taken seriously, they need to lead by example and get rid of their petrol car and TV set, laptop and tablet. My goodness, that type of conversation makes me very nervous!

But that's just it. I would bet that many of these so-called "climate warriors" leave a bigger carbon footprint than you or I do. There have always been lots of preachers in the world harping on one thing or another, but nowhere near as many people who actually practice what they preach. "Do as I say, not as I do" as the saying goes.

Regardless, the vast majority of people are going to keep all of their toys no matter what a few zealots decide to do.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

rotf lmfao!

Surely you can do better than that!! Like that is or or

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Surely you can do better than that!! Like that is or or

He seems to be getting lazy of late.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

It appears you are still angry over HD-DVD losing the HD disc war. It has been about 12 years now since the demise of HD-DVD so you should be getting over your hate for anything Blu-ray.

I still have a whopping 5 HD DVDs in my collection AND a device that plays them. I hope that doesn't make him green with envy.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by stonesfan129

Now that Walmart is in talks to sell VUDU to Comcast (FandangoNow), I may just switch back to discs. The AppleTV app on my Roku Ultra is nice but it doesn't give you the iTunes Extras.

Only a campaigning politician hoping to court the favor of fickle voters waffles about more than you do.

You should probably stick with discs because they usually include the digital code and this way you get both; as much as you bounce back and forth between the two this would be your best option.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Sometime back I mentioned the URC MX-980 remote I was using in the home theater, below is why. And that is not all of them. Now I have procured a used URC MX-5000 because it can control equipment via IR and/or IP. Have read 112 pages of the manual with only 48 to go.

[Show spoiler]