Home Video Sales Thread (HMM weekly/DEG quarterly/Nielsen Top 20/etc.)

[bruceames]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/age...ail-apocalypse

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Blu-ray up: 9.1% (36.3% share)
DVD down: -13.1%

Thanks for the work Bruce .

[Coenskubrick]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Blu-ray up: 9.1% (36.3% share)
DVD down: -13.1%

That's quite a step up over DVD. I can't wait for the day when they're 50/50 and they stop releasing DVD only.

[Eny-]

Originally Posted by Coenskubrick

That's quite a step up over DVD. I can't wait for the day when they're 50/50 and they stop releasing DVD only.

That will never happen.

[Coenskubrick]

Originally Posted by Eny-

That will never happen.

Oh you, such a pessimist. We gained 9% and DVD lost 13% this year. It's not out of the question that BR might one day be on even footing.

[bruceames]

A few notes on market share:

This year we'll see one of the biggest share increases in years. Last year it ended at 33.8%. So far this year it's 36.3%, but it always jumps up in Q4 (as this is a high sale period with titles that favor Blu-ray). So it will end up this year at close to 39%.

Blu-ray will eventually be over 50% in revenue share, maybe in two years. But the top 20 revenue share is well over that now. The reason the overall share is so low is that DVD releases a lot of stuff that doesn't make it to Blu-ray (not enough demand, not worth it, etc). So DVD sales have a long sales tail compared with Blu-ray. But the movies that stores stock, overall Blu-ray does just as good or better.

DVD will probably never really go away, for that reason that it's so easy to replicate on disc (more facilities at its disposal) and cheaper and so many titles will only be viable on that format since sales will be too low to justify a multi-format release.

With the introduction of UHD BD, I expect that will help accelerate the decline of DVD, especially for new releases. In a few years, it will be common for some movies not to get a DVD release at all. But DVD will still be around for that obscure stuff. DVD has been declining at a rate between 10 and 15 percent per years for several years now. The remarkable thing is that this decline is consistent and doesn't accelerate.

Blu-ray on the other hand seems to be enjoying a resurgence this year, no doubt due in part to UHD BD (and also due to a higher box office value of the movies released so far). It has positive growth for the first time in three years. As UHD BD becomes more popular, I expect the growth to be positive for the next few years as well.

UHD BD has a lot of potential for the average consumer because most of the visual upgrade is related to HDR, and that can be appreciated on any size display. Blu-ray on the other hand was mostly dependent on a resolution upgrade, which most people didn't appreciate fully because their displays were too small or they sit too far away. It's only a matter of time before HDR display become the norm and dynamic HDR (probably Dolby Vision) comes to disc, which will really give the format a boost. Keep in mind, UHD BD will mainly be a new release format, but that's OK. Most Blu-ray sales are from new release as well.

[Eny-]

Originally Posted by bruceames

DVD will probably never really go away, for that reason that it's so easy to replicate on disc (more facilities at its disposal) and cheaper and so many titles will only be viable on that format since sales will be too low to justify a multi-format release.

This is also true for Blu-ray ATM. The problem is penetration. Everyone and their mother has a DVD player and are good that way. A BD player doesn't interest them, even with HDTVs.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Eny-

This is also true for Blu-ray ATM. The problem is penetration. Everyone and their mother has a DVD player and are good that way. A BD player doesn't interest them, even with HDTVs.

Still DVD replication costs are about half of Blu-ray on the smaller jobs. And yes since DVD has a much larger player base it makes it a no brainer which format to replicate in (assuming they have to choose, which is likely on small print runs).

[rdodolak]

On a related note,

Technicolor Reports H1/Q2 2016 Results, Blu-ray Sparkles and Shines

[bruceames]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...k-ended-100116

[Coenskubrick]

Shame, but at least it still didn't go down more than DVD.

[bruceames]

Well you have to expect it to be down this week because the top titles for the week, this year and last, are Central Intelligence and Avengers: Age of Ultron (which was the biggest movie of the year).




Box Office Comparison DOWN -56.00% From the Previous Year
Street Title Box Office | Street Title Box Office
|
9/27/16 Central Intelligence $127.44 | 10/2/15 Avengers: Age of Ultron $459.01
9/27/16 Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates $46.01 | 9/29/15 Spy $110.83
9/27/16 Warcraft $47.23 | 9/29/15 Entourage $32.36
9/27/16 The Shallows $55.12 | 9/29/15 Poltergeist $47.43
9/27/16 The Neon Demon $1.33 | 9/29/15 Aloft $0.05
9/27/16 Hunt For The Wilderpeople $5.14 | 9/29/15 Cop Car $0.13
9/27/16 Lady in White $1.71 | 9/29/15 Dislecksia: The Movie $0.03
9/27/16 Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words $0.35 | 9/29/15 The Connection $0.19
9/27/16 The Innocents $1.07 | 9/29/15 Unexpected $0.02
9/27/16 City of Gold $0.61 |
9/27/16 The Seventh Fire $0.03 |
|
Total Box Office Power: $286.02 | Total Box Office Power: $650.04
|
Top Selling Title for Week Ended 10/2/16 | Top Selling Title for Week Ended 10/4/15
Warcraft | Avengers: Age of Ultron

[malakaheso]

It hasn't been a great year for new releases so thats hardly surprising

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by malakaheso

It hasn't been a great year for new releases so thats hardly surprising

Yeah, other than Star Wars, it really hasn't. But Star Wars has made a strong impact and I think there is a 3D version coming out soon so that will help too. But otherwise the lineup for the rest of the year is not nearly as good as it was last year.

[reanimator]

I was just noticing the UHD-BD sales numbers relative to 3D sales -- X:MEN, WARCRAFT and TMNT have all sold better on UHD than 3D. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of 3D and I buy them by the boatload. I guess I'm a little surprised that UHD-BD has already taken the sales lead so early in it's lifespan. It's another encouraging sign that UHD-BD is performing above expectations and gaining steam.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by reanimator

I was just noticing the UHD-BD sales numbers relative to 3D sales -- X:MEN, WARCRAFT and TMNT have all sold better on UHD than 3D. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of 3D and I buy them by the boatload. I guess I'm a little surprised that UHD-BD has already taken the sales lead so early in it's lifespan. It's another encouraging sign that UHD-BD is performing above expectations and gaining steam.

Yeah it's been that way for a few months now. Interestingly Captain America: Civil War 3D shares are in the upper teens (starting at 27%!) but that's mainly because the digital copy is exclusive to the 3D SKU. Seems these days that the uv/dc is a much bigger selling point than before. And with the dc being UHD quality in most cases, that will help the format quite a bit going forward. It really adds value for people wanting to future proof. I think the UHD codes can get up to $8-10 in resale value.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah it's been that way for a few months now. Interestingly Captain America: Civil War 3D shares are in the upper teens (starting at 27%!) but that's mainly because the digital copy is exclusive to the 3D SKU. Seems these days that the uv/dc is a much bigger selling point than before. And with the dc being UHD quality in most cases, that will help the format quite a bit going forward. It really adds value for people wanting to future proof. I think the UHD codes can get up to $8-10 in resale value.

But not in the U.K where we don't have a Storefront lol. No Vudu or anything remotely good. Good job I hate digital!

[mredman]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah it's been that way for a few months now. Interestingly Captain America: Civil War 3D shares are in the upper teens (starting at 27%!) but that's mainly because the digital copy is exclusive to the 3D SKU. Seems these days that the uv/dc is a much bigger selling point than before. And with the dc being UHD quality in most cases, that will help the format quite a bit going forward. It really adds value for people wanting to future proof. I think the UHD codes can get up to $8-10 in resale value.

don't think it has anything to do with UV at all. Its because Marvel 3D Blu-Rays are cheaper than most 3D Blu-Rays thats why they always sell way better have been that since Avengers.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mredman

don't think it has anything to do with UV at all. Its because Marvel 3D Blu-Rays are cheaper than most 3D Blu-Rays thats why they always sell way better have been that since Avengers.

I think the UV/DC being exclusive to the 3D on Captain America: Civil War, had everything to do with the high 3D share. Warcraft and TMNT 3Ds were only $2 more and their 3D shares on release week were only 3% and 2% respectively. While Captain America was 27%. A $2 discount isn't going to make the 3D share jump from 3% to 27%, no way.

In the Digital forum I read that Captain America codes were going for $12-$15, so obviously a lot of people were buying it for the codes, or put another way: because the 2D version didn't have a code.

Check out this thread. The codes were selling for more than the 3D disc.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=283069

[mredman]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I think the UV/DC being exclusive to the 3D on Captain America: Civil War, had everything to do with the high 3D share. Warcraft and TMNT 3Ds were only $2 more and their 3D shares on release week were only 3% and 2% respectively. While Captain America was 27%. A $2 discount isn't going to make the 3D share jump from 3% to 27%, no way.

In the Digital forum I read that Captain America codes were going for $12-$15, so obviously a lot of people were buying it for the codes, or put another way: because the 2D version didn't have a code.

Check out this thread. The codes were selling for more than the 3D disc.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=283069

Weird i still dont believe it. MOST people definitely buy it for the 3D Blu-Ray. Any other thing is just . Still think the price has a big factor as well.