Home Video Sales Thread (HMM weekly/DEG quarterly/Nielsen Top 20/etc.)

[bruceames]

Even better week.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah that's odd. Maybe they used the figures for the wrong week last year? If they used the week ending 3/12 last year (instead of 3/5) than the comparisons would be a lot closer. Let us know if you hear anything back.

I heard back. It's last year's numbers that were wrong:

I’m told there was a glitch in last year’s numbers that wasn’t discovered until well after the reports were sent out, and they never bothered with corrected figures. So this year’s numbers are correct and you can replace last year’s numbers with whatever the reverse calculation is.

Thanks.

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Managing Editor/
Reviews Editor/
Market Research Director
HOME MEDIA MAGAZINE

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Even better week.

Nice, very good week.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Nice, very good week.

Disney releases have a way of making everything all right again. Can't wait until they jump on the 4K bandwagon.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Disney releases have a way of making everything all right again.

just need them to join UHD and start releasing movies in that format now!

Edit:just saw your last sentence. It wasn't there before!

[bruceames]

Y-axis is in billions
X-axis: 1 = year 2006 and 11 = year 2016
Sorry, tried to format the x-axis values and gave up after 30 minutes.

Chart 1 shows the decline of DVD very clearly, peaking at nearly $14 billion in 2006, to just $3.43 billion last year. Notice the linear nature of the decline. The first linear decline is fairly small, from 2006-2008 (average decline of 5% a year). The second is much steeper, from 2008-2011 (down 15% per year), and the latest decline "curve" (2011-2016) is also nearly a straight line, a more moderate decline of about 10% a year.

The growth curve of Blu-ray can be seen in the secord chart, and lately has remain fairly constant, around $2 billion a year for the last 7 years.

The digital figures (growth curve shown in chart 3) are sell-through only and I don't have the data for years prior to 2008 (although it's insignificant anyway). But digital growth started out slow and started to grow quickly in 2012. This rapid growth lasted until 2015, and last year growth has slowed down again.

Below is the table of data from which the charts are derived. Keep in mind that Digital HD doesn't separate HD from SD purchases. So for comparison's sake, between digital and disc, one would need to compare the sum of DVD and Blu-ray against it. Nevertheless, they are 3 separate categories for tracking sell-through spending, and the only ones we have right now.

Year	DVD	BD	Digital 
2006	13.89	0.02	0
2007	13.38	0.25	0
2008	12.48	0.63	0
2009	10.55	1.07	0.43
2010	8.5	1.8	0.54
2011	6.8	2.1	0.6
2012	6	2.18	0.81
2013	5.33	2.33	1.19
2014	4.66	2.12	1.55
2015	3.96	2.02	1.89
2016	3.43	2.02	2

chart 1: DVD growth curve, with Blu-ray and Digital stacked on top


Chart 2: Blu-ray growth curve


Chart 3: Digital growth curve

[bruceames]

I'll update my revenue table next week, but the last two weeks have really helped Blu-ray get out of a deep hole. It was down over 22 percent but now it's only down 7 percent and there are some good weeks coming up. The interesting week will be Rogue One week, which is the same week as the previous Star Wars movie last year. That week did $93 million.

[chrisbluray]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Steed is right. You can't compare disc to subscription streaming since it is simply a substitute for regular TV viewing. Digital HD showed very little growth last year and that is what the studios want the consumers to gravitate to and it's not working out very well. Which is good news for disc fans in the long term. Sure the overall pie will continue to drop for some time but there is not going to be this mass exodus to digital.

I would also factor in the botched rollout of 4K content. What I think you're going to find is that for a lot of people with 2014-2016 models of UHD TV, that upconverting regular Blu-Rays is still the most cost-effective means for content for a UHD TV.

Granted, the movies aren't true 4K, but there is a lot to be said for being able to use existing drives and allready-bought discs(not to mention a lot of discs are going for $5 or $10 now, or even less on the used market). That could, in turn, feed into standard Blu-Ray making a surge, simply because of the mismanagement of 4K content. When HDR is a matter of 'buy another 4K TV', I don't think you'll find a lot of people are willing, so they'll use whatever provides the best picture, which is regular Blu-ray. As long as its 'good enough', they'll simply wait out the process buying older discs.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by chrisbluray

I would also factor in the botched rollout of 4K content. What I think you're going to find is that for a lot of people with 2014-2016 models of UHD TV, that upconverting regular Blu-Rays is still the most cost-effective means for content for a UHD TV.

Granted, the movies aren't true 4K, but there is a lot to be said for being able to use existing drives and allready-bought discs(not to mention a lot of discs are going for $5 or $10 now, or even less on the used market). That could, in turn, feed into standard Blu-Ray making a surge, simply because of the mismanagement of 4K content. When HDR is a matter of 'buy another 4K TV', I don't think you'll find a lot of people are willing, so they'll use whatever provides the best picture, which is regular Blu-ray. As long as its 'good enough', they'll simply wait out the process buying older discs.

Sales of 4K discs, by all accounts, have been better than expected. So "botched" is hardly the right word. Besides, when Blu-ray came out, people had to buy another TV and disc player too, and Blu-ray did alright, in spite of a format war in its early years.

[chrisbluray]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Sales of 4K discs, by all accounts, have been better than expected. So "botched" is hardly the right word. Besides, when Blu-ray came out, people had to buy another TV and disc player too, and Blu-ray did alright, in spite of a format war in its early years.

A lot of that is marketing spin.. you can frame statistics any which way for the paid news outlets to make something look good, and I have yet to see a single 4K Blu-Ray release without a regular Blu-Ray disc in the same package. So really.. which are you actually buying?

But step back and look for a second.

We're now *3 years* into 4K and have maybe one or two UHD players at premium pricing, with declarations that all the old TV's should be scrapped in favor of new HDR UHD TV's, or that the older 4K sets won't work with streaming. Its a classic case of the tech industry not getting their ducks in a row. People have been buying the TV's... its just the content has been lagging, or now has technical conflicts.

The PC side is a mess of declarations of new hardware due to copyright shenanigans, which is largely a byproduct of the industry simply just not caring whether the new discs can be played on PCs, regardless of if those same PC's already have had the technical capability, and for quite a while I might add. If you want to sell UHD discs, they need to work on as many current systems as possible that have the capability of playing them, not as few as humanly possible.

Will the problem fix itself? Sure, but it'll take years for the customer buying cycle to roll over, and in all likelihood they'd only upgrade for 8K. People don't tend to like buying twice within the same resolution of TV. 3D exhibited this issue, HDR will be no different. Gimmicks to enhance the picture simply don't have the TV buying power of a completely different resolution paradigm, and people only tend to buy that once given the cost.

As such, I have a feeling that as people wise-up, they'll finally push regular Blu-Ray into the mainstream as the de facto standard, finally replacing DVD, for a decade or more. If they get 4K discs, it'll simply be because they are riding along in the same package at the sell-through price point. I'm sure your niche enthusiasts will put out for any tech to make sure they're riding the bleeding edge, but thats a fraction of the money that could have actually been made.

And as stated, in all reality the TV industry starts rolling 8K in a couple years and shuffling the deck yet again. Basically.. its such a mess that regular Blu-Ray may win by default as you can get 95% of the benefits and the existing equipment is very inexpensive.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by chrisbluray

A lot of that is marketing spin.. you can frame statistics any which way for the paid news outlets to make something look good, and I have yet to see a single 4K Blu-Ray release without a regular Blu-Ray disc in the same package. So really.. which are you actually buying?

But step back and look for a second.

We're now *3 years* into 4K and have maybe one or two UHD players at premium pricing, with declarations that all the old TV's should be scrapped in favor of new HDR UHD TV's, or that the older 4K sets won't work with streaming. Its a classic case of the tech industry not getting their ducks in a row. People have been buying the TV's... its just the content has been lagging, or now has technical conflicts.

The PC side is a mess of declarations of new hardware due to copyright shenanigans, which is largely a byproduct of the industry simply just not caring whether the new discs can be played on PCs, regardless of if those same PC's already have had the technical capability, and for quite a while I might add. If you want to sell UHD discs, they need to work on as many current systems as possible that have the capability of playing them, not as few as humanly possible.

Will the problem fix itself? Sure, but it'll take years for the customer buying cycle to roll over, and in all likelihood they'd only upgrade for 8K. People don't tend to like buying twice within the same resolution of TV. 3D exhibited this issue, HDR will be no different. Gimmicks to enhance the picture simply don't have the TV buying power of a completely different resolution paradigm, and people only tend to buy that once given the cost.

As such, I have a feeling that as people wise-up, they'll finally push regular Blu-Ray into the mainstream as the de facto standard, finally replacing DVD, for a decade or more. If they get 4K discs, it'll simply be because they are riding along in the same package at the sell-through price point. I'm sure your niche enthusiasts will put out for any tech to make sure they're riding the bleeding edge, but thats a fraction of the money that could have actually been made.

And as stated, in all reality the TV industry starts rolling 8K in a couple years and shuffling the deck yet again. Basically.. its such a mess that regular Blu-Ray may win by default as you can get 95% of the benefits and the existing equipment is very inexpensive.

i completely disagree. I see 4K doing very well and it's off to a good start.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I'll update my revenue table next week, but the last two weeks have really helped Blu-ray get out of a deep hole. It was down over 22 percent but now it's only down 7 percent and there are some good weeks coming up. The interesting week will be Rogue One week, which is the same week as the previous Star Wars movie last year. That week did $93 million.

I don't think it will do as well Bruce, we will see what other releases are due out that week.

[bruceames]

Wow Chris, you reading waay too much into this. UHD BD has only been out a year, not three, and there is no reason to believe it's not doing well. Show me these "declarations" that old TVs should be scrapped for HDR TVs. That's pure hyperbole, come on.

Sure, if they want to enjoy the new format in HDR, then they will have to get an HDR TV. But again, that was the case with Blu-ray too. They had to get an HDTV, and even then 1080P TVs were very expensive until about 3-4 years after launch.

And of course the players. Remember the $1000 Blu-ray players? Now we have:

Sony Player: $300
Samsung: $200
Xbox One S: $300 (also gaming)
Panasonic: $700 (I think, not sure)
Oppo: $550

That's at least 5 players out now, only two of which are "premium" pricing (if you think $300 is premium pricing only one year after launch, then perhaps you need to look at the pricing of players in other formats during the same period after launch. They were much higher). Not one or two players like you said.

Who cares about the PC side? Video formats have never been PC-based, and sales from PC setups have always been small.

HDR is not a gimmick. If you see it, you will not think so. It really sounds like you are bothered that this format is getting "in the way" and trying to make regular Blu-ray obsolete. But actually UHD BD is just a supplement to regular Blu-ray, so you have nothing to worry about. They are both on the same "team".

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I don't think it will do as well Bruce, we will see what other releases are due out that week.

Probably not. It didn't do as well in the theaters, but maybe coming out with the 3D version as well from the start will help?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Probably not. It didn't do as well in the theaters, but maybe coming out with the 3D version as well from the start will help?

Possibly Bruce. Like you say though, some good weeks ahead. I will certainly be buying Rogue One.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Possibly Bruce. Like you say though, some good weeks ahead. I will certainly be buying Rogue One.

I got mine preordered. Only buying it because of the 3D, as I've been getting back into 3D lately (which is conflicting whenever a movie comes out in both 4K and 3D and I have to choose). I never saw it in the theater.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I got mine preordered. Only buying it because of the 3D, as I've been getting back into 3D lately (which is conflicting whenever a movie comes out in both 4K and 3D and I have to choose). I never saw it in the theater.

Been watching a lot of 3D films on my VR headset recently. Will be starting to buy 4K/Blu-Ray combos at the back end of the year. Or early next year.

[chrisbluray]

Originally Posted by bruceames

UHD BD has only been out a year, not three, and there is no reason to believe it's not doing well. Show me these "declarations" that old TVs should be scrapped for HDR TVs. That's pure hyperbole, come on.

4K has been around since 2014 for TV's, even longer for Monitors.. and every year its 'content comes next year'. Now the content we're getting is a lot of 2K uprezzes masquerading as 4K(likely to be double-dipped with 'remastered 4K' later(while being downrezzed from the remastered 8), Streaming is ignoring 3 years of TV's, and the TV makers are in their mid-generation visual gimmick upgrade.

Last time it was 3D, this time its HDR. I'm not dismissing the improvements, they're certainly tangible(I've been a fan of 3D), i'm saying that they don't get people out to the store. Rather than better resolution, we make your picture look better and different in some way that we believe will get people to buy a new TV. Will HDR even have staying power once 8K hits, or have the shelf life of say 3D? That's rhetorical, I know your opinion on it, only time will tell if it actually does.

Originally Posted by bruceames

Sure, if they want to enjoy the new format in HDR, then they will have to get an HDR TV.

Exact same song and dance accompanied 3D TV. Make your 4K TV look better.. by.. buying a new 4K TV. That does not work. People simply sit it out until 8K comes along. People upgrading from 1080p might go HDR, but the people you've already sold UHD sets to get burned.

Originally Posted by bruceames

But again, that was the case with Blu-ray too. They had to get an HDTV, and even then 1080P TVs were very expensive until about 3-4 years after launch.

Except the difference here is you already have quite a few people who have bought UHDTV's with the expectation that they'd play the 4K content when it arrived. Now you're busy telling them they really need better UHDTV's with this 'HDR' sell point to get a good UHD picture. Oh.. and btw.. the UHD discs you are getting are really 2K upconverts. Its certainly an interesting way to do business.

Originally Posted by bruceames

That's at least 5 players out now, only two of which are "premium" pricing (if you think $300 is premium pricing only one year after launch, then perhaps you need to look at the pricing of players in other formats during the same period after launch. They were much higher). Not one or two players like you said.

'Premium' pricing is always in comparison to the other options and just because its $300 rather than $600, really doesn't make a difference when you can buy a $50 Blu-ray player and get 95% of the viewing benefit. Can you see every last freckle on Matt Damon's face at 2K(probably). Can you see every last grain of sand(probably not).

Originally Posted by bruceames

Who cares about the PC side? Video formats have never been PC-based, and sales from PC setups have always been small.

My point exactly. Its not a matter of who cares, its a matter of, you have millions of machines that can do UHD, why cut off your nose to spite your face by forcing them all to upgrade, when it isn't due to technical capability? Your viewpoint is exactly that of the industry. They're so narrowly focused that regardless of paid puff pieces, 4K content isn't about to take off any time soon. It will sell, sure, but not on a mainstream basis. Laserdisc sold quite a few copies too.

Originally Posted by bruceames

HDR is not a gimmick. If you see it, you will not think so.

For me, 3D TV wasn't a gimmick either and I still love the picture on a good set. We saw how long that lasted.

Originally Posted by bruceames

It really sounds like you are bothered that this format is getting "in the way" and trying to make regular Blu-ray obsolete.

You misread me then. I really would like 4K to succeed. HDR also. Hell, bring 3D back to TV's. I'm bothered that they're fractionalizing the market to the point that people just won't even bother and people will simply fall back on regular Blu-Ray. In 2017, there just is still really not much point to go 4K UHD(HDR or otherwise). And if you do because you really want the upgrade(and really.. its all that's for sale tbh), its likely that regular Blu-Ray is simply your best content option. That will only magnify once 8K clogs up the market.

You're trying to hit a moving target with content, for which for most people regular Blu-Ray is 'good enough'. I wouldn't be surprised if companies look to resolve this in the near future by mastering at 8, downconverting and selling at 4, and then having the 8 ready to double-dip early in the 2020's. At which point, investing in the 4K content in the last couple years of this decade was pointless, because they were really just resetting the table for 8. It really feels like they just took too long to get rolling on it.

I know you can't see it now because of The New Shiny Toy, but you probably will later.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by chrisbluray

4K has been around since 2014 for TV's, even longer for Monitors.. and every year its 'content comes next year'. Now the content we're getting is a lot of 2K uprezzes masquerading as 4K(likely to be double-dipped with 'remastered 4K' later(while being downrezzed from the remastered 8), Streaming is ignoring 3 years of TV's, and the TV makers are in their mid-generation visual gimmick upgrade.

Actually 4K TVs have been around since 2013, and Sony had content available from the beginning via download (rental or purchase) to its X1 player.

Most of the negativity regarding 2K upscales have been from non-owners, who tend to change their tune when they see that, in spite of it being from a 2K DI, there is still more spatial detail in the picture than on the regular Blu-ray. But that's not the point. The point is that most of the benefit of UHD is from the HDR/WCG and 10 bit depth color. The law of diminishing returns really kicks in when you go from 2K to 4K resolution. With 8K you'd have to sit ridiculously close to the screen to see any benefit from resolution increase (for example within 4 feet of a 75" display).

Last time it was 3D, this time its HDR. I'm not dismissing the improvements, they're certainly tangible(I've been a fan of 3D), i'm saying that they don't get people out to the store. Rather than better resolution, we make your picture look better and different in some way that we believe will get people to buy a new TV. Will HDR even have staying power once 8K hits, or have the shelf life of say 3D? That's rhetorical, I know your opinion on it, only time will tell if it actually does.

You can't compare 3D with 4K and say that it will be a passing fad like 3D was, considering most TVs sold are 4K.

Exact same song and dance accompanied 3D TV. Make your 4K TV look better.. by.. buying a new 4K TV. That does not work. People simply sit it out until 8K comes along. People upgrading from 1080p might go HDR, but the people you've already sold UHD sets to get burned.

Oh please. Are you serious about people waiting it out for 8K? What's going to be so special about 8K that 4K doesn't have now, other than resolution? True 8K resolution is way overkill as in order to enjoy the benefits you have to sit so close that the borders of the display are outside your field of vision.

Except the difference here is you already have quite a few people who have bought UHDTV's with the expectation that they'd play the 4K content when it arrived. Now you're busy telling them they really need better UHDTV's with this 'HDR' sell point to get a good UHD picture. Oh.. and btw.. the UHD discs you are getting are really 2K upconverts. Its certainly an interesting way to do business.

I suspect you're one of those people who bought a 4K TV that doesn't have HDR? Hey, I bought one too, but I understood that I was buying as an early adopter (within 2 years of launch of 4K TVs), so it goes with the territory.

As for 2K upconverts, reviews and owner impressions have shown little to no correlation between the visual upgrade between BD and UHD BD vs. whether it was sourced from a 2K or 4K DI.

'Premium' pricing is always in comparison to the other options and just because its $300 rather than $600, really doesn't make a difference when you can buy a $50 Blu-ray player and get 95% of the viewing benefit. Can you see every last freckle on Matt Damon's face at 2K(probably). Can you see every last grain of sand(probably not).

This is just silly. How can you expect to buy a $50 UHD player only one year after launch? Compared to previous formats, UHD players are far, far more affordable at the same point in time after launch. Get some perspective.

My point exactly. Its not a matter of who cares, its a matter of, you have millions of machines that can do UHD, why cut off your nose to spite your face by forcing them all to upgrade, when it isn't due to technical capability? Your viewpoint is exactly that of the industry. They're so narrowly focused that regardless of paid puff pieces, 4K content isn't about to take off any time soon. It will sell, sure, but not on a mainstream basis. Laserdisc sold quite a few copies too.

Again, no one is forcing anyone to upgrade. And no one is expecting UHD BD to become mainstream anytime soon, if ever. It (at least for now) is merely a supplement to Blu-ray. People can upgrade anytime they choose. Heck, every UHD BD sold comes with a Blu-ray too, so the necessity of choosing now or even ever is taken out of the equation.

For me, 3D TV wasn't a gimmick either and I still love the picture on a good set. We saw how long that lasted.

You don't need glasses to watch UHD BD movies.

You misread me then. I really would like 4K to succeed. HDR also. Hell, bring 3D back to TV's. I'm bothered that they're fractionalizing the market to the point that people just won't even bother and people will simply fall back on regular Blu-Ray. In 2017, there just is still really not much point to go 4K UHD(HDR or otherwise). And if you do because you really want the upgrade(and really.. its all that's for sale tbh), its likely that regular Blu-Ray is simply your best content option. That will only magnify once 8K clogs up the market.

What makes you think that 8K is going to "clog up the market"? Very likely IMO that 4K will be the last physical format, but I hope I'm wrong.

You're trying to hit a moving target with content, for which for most people regular Blu-Ray is 'good enough'. I wouldn't be surprised if companies look to resolve this in the near future by mastering at 8, downconverting and selling at 4, and then having the 8 ready to double-dip early in the 2020's. At which point, investing in the 4K content in the last couple years of this decade was pointless, because they were really just resetting the table for 8. It really feels like they just took too long to get rolling on it.

I know you can't see it now because of The New Shiny Toy, but you probably will later.

Sure, Blu-ray is good enough for most people. Heck, you could say the same thing about DVD, even now. After all, DVD still owns over 60% of the disc market.

I don't get this obsession about 8K with you. 4K discs have only been out a year. Life is too short to wait for something that will probably never come to disc. I've been enjoying HDR movies for over a year, and 4K movies for nearly 3 years. It's been worth it not to wait. Life is short.

[Ant1010]

lol Bruce you must be bored tonight to be entertaining this