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Old 11-17-2008, 03:27 PM   #41
Marquoz Marquoz is offline
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Originally Posted by SellmeyourDVD View Post
Enron posted what, a 14billion dollar profit? Than gas comes soaring down shortly after that is posted? RIDICULOUS

Wow, Enron posted a profit? I'd double check THAT paper! I'm 99% sure that it's fraud!
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Old 11-17-2008, 03:34 PM   #42
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it's 1.83 here but just keep in mind that-

#1 that is still an astronomical price for gas, remeber when it used to be .95 cents just 7 years ago?

and #2 it is going to shoot right back up as soon as the economy gets better (well at least that is what the economists seem to think).

Enron posted what, a 14billion dollar profit? Than gas comes soaring down shortly after that is posted? RIDICULOUS

It was nice filling up for 15 bucks a couple of days ago.... but we're still being price gauged.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/i...tion_chart.htm

lol, gas was not .95 7 years ago, hasn't avgeraged that low since the early 90s.

obviously the chart above does not include the recent price drop in gasoline, but if you were to just mentally draw a line down to about $2, you could see that gas prices are pretty low when adjusted for inflation.

gouged? OH please! if we were to take all restrictions and regulations out of the energy industry and simply let market value determine the price, it would sore in price.
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:42 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by stockstar1138 View Post
gouged? OH please! if we were to take all restrictions and regulations out of the energy industry and simply let market value determine the price, it would sore in price.
What a great statement, stockstar1138.

Also, let's not forget how much our European cousins are paying. Their prices (particularly in Britain) are WAY above ours.
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:43 PM   #44
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Paid $35 yesterday to fill up my 16-gallon tank...93 octane...at BP, of all places...
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Old 11-17-2008, 07:45 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by stockstar1138 View Post
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/i...tion_chart.htm

lol, gas was not .95 7 years ago, hasn't avgeraged that low since the early 90s.
Not averaged but 7 years ago (after 9/11), gas did plummet. I paid $0.77/gallon (or maybe less) when people weren't traveling much and after the market dropped.

I had a Sunoco station that ran mid-night madness sales on Thursday nights from 11 PM to 4 AM where gas was reduced to drum up sales before the next day's delivery for the weekend.
After ER, I'd drive around the corner and fill up my Accord. Often, $10-12 filled it. Those were the days!
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:03 PM   #46
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When I filled up last week at my Costco it was $2.14, so just about $60 to fill my tank. Im lovin it, but am already prepared for when it goes back up and I am paying around $100 or more to fill up every week.
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:05 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by DeathByAsh'aman View Post
Oddly enough the rest of the world uses oil as well. Funny i know. Also oil is used for more then just gasoline, scandalous right? So the world economies have tanked, you follow? Companies in all industries are using less and less oil, so that roughly translates into less demand. Less demand means that people begin to offer less and less for a barrel of oil.

Side note: I wouldnt get too comfortable with oil this cheap. The cost of a barrel of oil is getting very close to the cost of production. The OPEC nations have been *****ing and moaning ever since the price slipped under $100. In the next few years i expect oil to cost more then it did last July, but as for when it will spike back up, your guess is as good as mine
The Steam Engine
A device that converts heat energy from burning into mechanical energy.

Atmospheric pressure is 760mm Hg, 1.03 kg/cm^2 or 101 kPa and if we cool steam to create a vacuum, an atmospheric engine becomes a source of power. Thomas Savery, 1698, the 'Miner's Friend' and Tomas Newcomen and John Calley, 1712, built on this principle of the Atmospheric Steam Engine. The 100 C steam that filled the cylinder was cooled down by water injection which created a partial vacuum. The greater atmospheric pressure outside the cylinder forced the piston down and lifted the other end of a Great Balanced Beam that pivoted up at a fulcrum carrying with it a pump-rod that sucked up water. The Newcomen engine produced about 5.5 h.p. and improved on the miner's friend which was used to pump water out of mines. The design was an inefficient 0.5%, producing an average duty of 6 million ft-lb for each bushel of coal burned. Smeaton, 1767, doubled the duty of the fire-engine to 1% (Willams, pp 319, 320).

The Boulton and Watt steam engine had a seperate condenser which increased fuel efficiency by 75% over the Newcomen design whiched reversed the process and use steam expansively. It was improved upon so it could provide rotery motion to power factory machinery which got the industrial revolution underway.


The Internal Combusion Engine
Dugald Clerk, 1878, designed the first two-stroke engine. Nikolaus August Otto, German inventor of the first internal-combustion engine. Atkinson cycle engine, 1882, provides efficiency at the expense of power density. Dr. Rudolf Diesel, 1892 developes his Carnot heat engine.

Automotive History
Around 1900, there were three technologies that vied for the road, each with its advantages and disadvanteges. The external combustion steam engine was great for powering large locomotives, but it was cumbersome for the smaller car. At the onset, the electric outsold gasoline powered cars which had better range. In 1907, Charles Franklin developed the self-starter, replacing the difficult to use and dangerous hand crank. Gasoline engine sales went up, and EV sales were down to 6,000 by 1911. The combinations of low tec lead-acid batteries and no network of charging stations kept electric out of the mas market. Today we have a simular chicken and egg story that looks like the launch of a new video format. Movie studios can't sell discs unless people have players to play them on; and the buying public wants lots of content. For now it's no charging stations, no electrics.



Driving Over the Edge

Oil supplies over 90% of the energy for world transportation (Sorrell et al., 2009 and the TOD). Over the long term, because of the inalasticity of supply, the price will be going up despite a recent downturn because hard economic times (2008). Fuel could well be around $10 a gallon in about 10 years. The old inexpensive high ERoEI easy oil is slowly being replaced by newer more expensive low ERoEI unconventional oil. Yet demand could be 100+ mbpd due to more cars on the road even as the average mpg is going up. Whether this comes to pass remains to be seen. Output from the older elephant fields are going down at a rate of 6.7% a year, so it may not be possible to achieve that kind of production, but with high prices putting more oil into production, a lot can happen. At any rate, the low ERoEI Extra heavy oil, Oil sands and Oil shale (kerogen) pose considerable challenges.

Currently there are a total of 911,522,191 vehicles in the world. America's portion is 248,700,000 cars and comercial vehicles, the most of any nation. We have nearly one car for every person of driving age. China, the most populus country, has only 13,758,000 cars, averaging fewer then three cars for every 100 people but has in the last five years built 20,000 miles of expressways at a pace four times faster than the United States built its interstate highway system (Calthorpe) India has few still, so there is lots of room for growth and consumption for the emerging economies. The Chinese purchased 13.6 million cars and light trucks last year(2009), compared to 10.4 million for the USA so they are now the world's #1 auto market. (TOD, 13 January 2010). The new peoples car, the 67mpg $2,200 - $3,800 Tata Nano goes on sale in India where they are just beginning to motorize. Though thrifty fuel wise, it creates a Jevons Paradox where its affordability actually increases consumption because so many more people can now afford a car. A serious issue in a country with a population of 1.15 billion that is growing at a rate of 1.7% a year. A European version is expected by 2011.

A another consequence of putting more cars on the road is land use. Lester Brown notes that for "every five cars that we bring online, we pave over an acre of land". This is about the area of a football field.

"The fossil-fuled internal-combustion engine that's now powering your car isn't going away anytime soon. But automakers understand that the technology... is unsustainable. With the world's population slated to jump from 6.8 billion to 9 billion by 2050, the number of cars will outstrip the supply of oil that currently drives them. 'Everyone agrees we have to get off oil. In 10 years, the number of cars around the globe will rise from 800 million to 1.1 billion. We know the price of oil will go up again'" (Brian Dumaine, Time p40, 26 July 2010). John B. Hess, CEO, adds. "An energy crisis is coming, likely to be triggered by oil...Demand is expected to grow on an annual basis by at least one million barrels per day, driven by the developing economies of the world and by a growth in transportation as we go from one billion cars today to two billion cars in 2050" (Peal Oil.com, 10 March 2011)

"Trucks outsold cars by the highest margin in nearly five years in October...pickups, SUVs, minivans, and smaller SUVs, which made up 54 percent of all US vehicle sales according to industry tracker J.D. Power and Associates, while cars made up 46 percent of the market. That’s the biggest margin of difference between the two categories since December 2005, when trucks accounted for 56 percent of sales" )Boston.com, 5 November 2010)

"Fuel efficiency is a bit of a head fake. We instinctively equate fuell efficiency with conservation... but the average consumer today consumes more fuel - not less - then he did 30 years ago". This is in spite of the fact that today's cars use 30 - 40% less gas (Jeff Rubin). I would tend to agree. As I insert this portion into the post, gas is hovering at around $4.00. Regardless, USA Today notes: "In Texas, which already has some of the nation's highest speed limits, the state House passed a bill last week allowing a speed limit of 85 mph on some highways." (April 2011)


Turning over a New Leaf ?



Smart Car, MSRP $13,990(Passion coupe)



Tata Nano, MSRP $2,500



Nissan Leaf, MSRP $32,780
Range 117 km (73 mi) (EPA), 175 km (109 mi) (NEDC), 76 to 169 km (47 to 105 mi) (Nissan) (wiki)



Tesla Roadster, MSRP $101,000
...is the first production automobile to use lithium-ion battery cells and the first production EV with a range greater than 200 miles (320 km) per charge.[8] The base model accelerates 0 to 60 mph (97 km/h) in 3.9 seconds (wiki)



Chevy Volt, MSRP $41,000
16 kWh lithium-ion battery, 35 miles (56 km) (EPA), 25 to 50 miles (40 to 80 km) (GM) (wiki)


"A game changing product does not need a tax credit" (Rush Limbaugh, 2010)

Despite being cheaper to fill up, one of the problems of going green is the high up front cost. In 2008, the average was $28,000. The Volt will street for $41,000, the Leaf $32,780 and the Tesla $101,000. All this extra green will get you a car that will need hours to charge and have a much lower driving range then a gas only version, putting off many buyers including myself. Being eco-frendly is nice, but I got have have something that's up to the task. Even with a $7,500-per-car federal tax credit to the first 200,000 purchasers of each model, I'm not sure the economics is running on all cylinders. Also, with federal coffers running low, how long will the tax credits will last?

First come, first served? With hardly any electrics on the road, there is little consideration for the additional load they will place on the grid, so the juce will be there 24/7 for the first users. As the numbers grow, so will the strain and the likelyhood brownouts and rolling blackouts. The US currently has 245 million cars on the road each will needing about 3MWh. So the requirements to go all electric are 3MWh per car X 245 million which gives us 750TWh/year. Charging Li-ion batteries is 85% efficient + 10% for losses due to self-discharge. So the actual requirement are 4MWh per car or 980TWh. This is 20% of the electricity generated in the US as of 2008.

There is still a medium term future for the piston engine as oil dwindles. The government plans to raise fuel efficiency standards 40% for cars and light trucks between 2017 and 2025. The average will rise to 54.5mpg. I expect much of the improvement will be from cars getting smaller and lighter as they have been improving the engine for a long time now; fuel efficiency gains are subject to the laws of diminishing returns. Perhaps by 2025, a Cooper Mini might seem full size by then. Driving wise, it will let us live with $7-10 gas, as we would now fill up on average once every two weeks apposed to once a week today.

A problem with batteries - energy density
Energy density is the amount of energy stored in a given system or region of space per unit volume. Chemical reactions such as combustion is far short of E = mc˛ which is what we would get with matter-animatter(180,000,000,000 MJ/kg), nuclear-fusion and nuclear-fission(U-235 79,500,000 MJ/kg). Gasoiline has a chemical energy content of only 47.2 MJ/kg and Diesel 45.4 MJ/kg. Batteries are lower still. Lithium-ion is 12.9 MJ/kg, and a lead-acid is 2.6 MJ/kg. So the specific energy of gasoline when measured in kWh per kg is about 400 times higher than that of a lead-acid battery and about 200 times greater than the Lithium-ion battery in the Chevrolet Volt.

Full Cost of Electric Drive
"... Say you pay $0.10 per kWh for electricity delivered to your home, and gas costs $4.00. Charging the Volt battery with 10.5 kWh at 90% efficiency to replace the drain from 38 miles of driving will cost $1.17... Now figure in the estimated price of the Volt battery at $8,000 ... If we get 62,000 miles of electric drive out of the battery, we will spend $1950 on electricity for charging, plus $8000 for the battery. That’s $9,950. The same distance on gasoline would cost $6500... gasoline wins. (Rembrandt, TOD)



Other Electric/Hybrid cars on the way
Cents Per ton mile:
  • Air - 82
  • Truck - 26
  • Rail - 2.9
  • Barge - 0.72
Credit - Oil-Price.net
Buffet Buys Railways

Back to The Oil Post

Last edited by U4K61; 11-03-2012 at 07:47 PM.
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:08 PM   #48
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I agree, over the long term, the price is going up. I'm guessing $10 - $15 a gallon in about 10 years. The easy stuff will be mostly gone by then. Demand will be 100+ million barrels a day, much of it having to come from hard to reach places.
we've got serious problems if we still have that much demand/day in 10 years.
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:08 PM   #49
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I love the prices now. I have to say though, the days of my daily driver needing to be a sports car are behind me. I will always have my '75 Firebird, may even finish restoring it one of these days, but Chevy Volt here I come. Screw the Iranians and screw Chavez, 40 miles on a charge and 50+ miles to the gallon here I come*.




*And I don't care if it takes a good mile to get up to speed.
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:20 PM   #50
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You actually believe that crap? You believe that the "crisis" has made people stop spending so much on gas, that they were able to drop it from nearly $4.00 a gallon to sub $2.00 dollars a gallon? Nearly a $2.00 dollar drop in a months time?

Lol, OK! There is no supply/demand when it comes to oil/gas in this country. There is only demand. There is no difference now and 2 months ago in regards to demand. None. All these people that whined and moaned about gas to start with, were already hurting.
you obviously didnt get it.....................
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:24 PM   #51
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now is the time for the govt. to really start beefing up the alternative fuels industry, give the oil futures the feeling that there won't be much demand in a decade for oil and the price will plummet even further.

1.79 here btw.
your right, but what will the goverment use for money? more borrowed funny money from the FED.
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Old 11-17-2008, 08:28 PM   #52
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your right, but what will the goverment use for money? more borrowed funny money from the FED.
oh yeah, i forgot we don't have any money left.
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Old 11-17-2008, 10:04 PM   #53
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I paid $1.59 today... that was fun.

The Grocery Store (price chopper) gives you $0.10 off for each $50 you spend on groceries. They have great prices for groceries anyway and we racked up to a $0.60 discount making regular unleaded $1.59. I filled up the mini-van for $20.... fun stuff.
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Old 11-17-2008, 10:33 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by stockstar1138 View Post
now is the time for the govt. to really start beefing up the alternative fuels industry, give the oil futures the feeling that there won't be much demand in a decade for oil and the price will plummet even further.

1.79 here btw.
I look forward to the day when oil runs out (I have faith that we'll have a reliable alternative by then) and the OPEC countries are left with nothing but barren desert.
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Old 11-17-2008, 11:12 PM   #55
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Once all of the hedge funds and money mongers get back into it, it will skyrocket again. I can't wait until the day that we won't be at the mercy of the middle east and Venezuala. I might not be alive, but I still can't wait.
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Old 11-18-2008, 01:53 AM   #56
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Now, I'm not too savvy when it comes to economics - but are these prices a temporary thing? A little breath of fresh air? What are your thoughts, non-politically related?
yes

the high prices had little to nothing to do with demand or supply. They had to do with futures. What are futures? it is someone saying I will p guarantee you a price today for a production. what happened was gas was extremely safe and extremely growing in value (so if the barrel was X today, buying for Y>=X was safe because you knew you could sell it for Z>Y>=X) so people where investing in oil futures because it had high returns. The slowing of the housing market, that brought the down fall of some banks that brought the downfall of the stock market and the future market. That is why the prices dropped a few days after the stock market. The same people that got scared and took their money out of the stock market also took it out of the futures.


so if it appears safe and good returns then people will start investing in futures and prices will go up again. There is also the fact that OPEC can cut down production in order to try and increase the value. Oil was extremely safe most of it was produced by a cartel that can control production people where obviously willing to pay increasing prices, so a safe bet that value would not plummet.
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Old 11-18-2008, 02:14 AM   #57
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Screw the Iranians and screw Chavez, 40 miles on a charge and 50+ miles to the gallon here I come.
I flat-out REFUSE to purchase a drop of gasoline from Citco. I'll gladly pay more or drive farther to not support that @$$-hole. Fotunately, Citco's are few and far between around where I live.
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Old 11-18-2008, 02:21 AM   #58
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today gas is $1.69
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Old 11-18-2008, 03:59 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by CrabbyAzz View Post
You might want to take an economics class. The market crisis reduced the need for gas because;

1 People are traveling less.
2. Industries are using less, since demand for products are down.

So temporarily there is too much gas and thus the price is down. However, some OPEC members (Iran) are trying to reduce production to bring the price per barrel up to $100.
And the connection between the price of gasoline and the spot price of oil is weak.

Didn't anyone wonder how the US oil companies managed to be the first commodity user in history that had its profits soar when the cost of the raw material it used soared?

It's interesting to note that a drop in worldwide oil consumption has NOT occured. From Sept. 2007-2008 the demand for oil dropped 1 million barrels a day in the western countries, but went up 1.2 million barrels a day in China. China is soaking up the excess production, but people think the demand is falling.

And while oil is falling like a rock, all the expensive oil production projects are being put on hold, potentially delaying there online dates by years.

Now, China is going to spend $568 BILLION of your US trade-deficit dollars (4 trillion Yuan) to stimulate the Chinese economy.

What happens when the US and other importing countries want that oil again?

Gary
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Old 11-18-2008, 04:33 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Ricshoe View Post
I flat-out REFUSE to purchase a drop of gasoline from Citco. I'll gladly pay more or drive farther to not support that @$$-hole. Fotunately, Citco's are few and far between around where I live.
I don't typically like to see any business fail. But I have to admit that when I drive by a closed Citgo, it brings a smile to my face.
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