Blu-ray to be mainstream next year

[Batman1980]

Blu-ray to Enter Mainstream Next Year, Says NPD
Posted September 25, 2009 08:13 AM by Juan Calonge
Blu-ray Disc will penetrate the mainstream by next year, according to an analysis of the demographics of set-top player buyers performed by research company NPD. The types of consumers using Blu-ray set-top players were surveyed in February 2008 and then in August 2009. The Blu-ray install base still skews toward the more tech-savvy demographic, but other consumers are jumping in, thanks to pricing and word-of-mouth.

NPD uses five adopter categories: “cutting-edge” consumers, “sensibles” (older people who can afford new technology but don't rush to buy it), “dreamers” (those who want new gadgets but are deterred by price), “neutrals” (people who are unimpressed by technology) and “anti-tech” (those who believe new gadgets are a waste of money).

The most encouraging sign for major Blu-ray acceptance was the progress within the two more mainstream groups: sensibles and dreamers. They are considered vital to a product's sales because they make up about 42% of the U.S. population. In February 2008, they made up just a small fraction of the Blu-ray usage base, at 22% combined. By August 2009, that had increased to 37%. In other words, out of every 100 owners of a Blu-ray player, 37 were “sensibles” or “dreamers.”

The largest group within the BD installed base is still that of cutting-edge consumers, although its predominance has decreased from 64% in February 2008 to 38% in August 2009. Cutting-edge consumers make up just 20% of the US population, not enough to move products into the mainstream.

Blu-ray usage has even increased among the “neutrals” and “anti-tech”, who now make up 24% of the BD user base, up from 14% in February 2008.

“In the last year, we have made great strides toward becoming mainstream, but we're not quite there yet,” said NPD analyst Russ Crupnick. “But going into the holiday season, we are seeing a combination of fairly reasonable price points on hardware and a lot of content. By February, after the holidays, it's going to quickly look more and more mainstream. We are on that path.”

Crupnick says that Blu-ray adoption can be fostered by current format fans showing off their setups to friends and family. NPD research shows that such word-of-mouth is the most powerful way to encourage a Blu-ray player purchase, rather than store demonstrations.

“It can be difficult with demos in stores because there might be kids tugging at you or you're trying to get groceries. It's tough to get that immersive experience,” said Crupnick. “When I am at your house, there is much more opportunity for an immersive experience.”

Source: Video Business | Permalink | Relevant for:
Doubt it but would be awesome if it's true.

[Afrobean]

Awesome if true?

Blu-ray is already mainstream. It's commonly available in non-specialty stores (did you ever see Laserdiscs at Kmart?) and it appears commonly in standard advertising directed not at a niche market, but at the general public at-large.

Just because it doesn't have hold of a certain portion of the market doesn't mean it's not mainstream. It's mainstream at present, just secondary and not as large as it could be.

[neos_peace]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Awesome if true?

Blu-ray is already mainstream. It's commonly available in non-specialty stores (did you ever see Laserdiscs at Kmart?) and it appears commonly in standard advertising directed not at a niche market, but at the general public at-large.

Just because it doesn't have hold of a certain portion of the market doesn't mean it's not mainstream. It's mainstream at present, just secondary and not as large as it could be.

I can go with that reseaoning.

[Clark Kent]

Blu-ray is already mainstream because it has firmly established itself in the marketplace as a viable format, and the rightful successor to dvd as the industry's home video format of choice. Most major retailers carry it and promote it, and a wide variety of hardware is available from different manufacturers.

[mjbethancourt]

Sounds like the article writer is working from a mistaken definition of "mainstream".

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

Sounds like the article writer is working from a mistaken definition of "mainstream".

The article writer isn't the one defining mainstream. It's the NPD. And their determination of mainstream sounded pretty solid to me - at least as solid as any survey-based research can be.

Blu-ray is obviously well-established in the marketplace, but I'm sure the BDA wouldn't even say that it's gone totally mainstream yet.

[Afrobean]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainstream

Mainstream is, generally, the common current of thought of the majority. However in the reality, the mainstream is far from cohesive; rather the concept is often considered a cultural construct.

As such, the mainstream includes all popular culture, typically disseminated by mass media.

It doesn't matter if it makes up a smaller section of the market, if it is widely available and seen widely in the market, it is mainstream. In reality, all things that are recognized as mainstream are truly only a piece of the market, but it's their prominent presence in culture that defines what is or is not mainstream. If something is readily available for all in whatever culture, it's mainstream.

It is also worth noticing that the term is commonly applied derogatorily and specifically to art, NOT as a statement of the prevalence of technology as is the case here. This is because the measure of mainstream is in its wide availability, not necessarily in the prevalence of its consumption.

[jangofett]

I would call mainstream 20%-25% marketshare at least, considering that there are basically only 2 options for physical media. Having said that, unless the NPD knows about some cheap players coming out, reductions in movie prices and the like, I don't see a huge amount of growth between now and the end of 2010.

It's probably going to take forever just to get to 20%....

[Lord_Stewie]

Heck yeah about time.

[P@t_Mtl]

I don't recall much advertisment on TV way back when saying

"now available on VHS & Laserdisc"

Yet we hear more and more

"now available on DVD & Blu-ray"

When you start hearing

"now available on Blu-ray & DVD"

That will be the day

[Uniquely]

I would say blu-ray becomes mainstream when the following scenario no longer occurs.


Average non tech oriented consumer: "what are you doing tonight?"
Me: "watching Tales of Despereaux on Blu-ray"
Average non tech oriented consumer: "what's blu-ray?"

[Sponge-worthy]

Is HDTV "mainstream" yet? If so, then Blu-ray probably wouldn't be too far behind.

[DetroitSportsFan]

Originally Posted by P@t_Mtl

When you start hearing

"now available on Blu-ray & DVD"

That will be the day

That's already been going on for months.

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mainstream

Mainstream is, generally, the common current of thought of the majority. However in the reality, the mainstream is far from cohesive; rather the concept is often considered a cultural construct.

As such, the mainstream includes all popular culture, typically disseminated by mass media.

It doesn't matter if it makes up a smaller section of the market, if it is widely available and seen widely in the market, it is mainstream. In reality, all things that are recognized as mainstream are truly only a piece of the market, but it's their prominent presence in culture that defines what is or is not mainstream. If something is readily available for all in whatever culture, it's mainstream.

It is also worth noticing that the term is commonly applied derogatorily and specifically to art, NOT as a statement of the prevalence of technology as is the case here. This is because the measure of mainstream is in its wide availability, not necessarily in the prevalence of its consumption.

I appreciate your semantic analysis, but the NPD study that the article references isn't about whether the term mainstream can be applied generally to Blu-ray as a technology. It's about whether or not Blu-ray usage has "penetrated the mainstream" consumer market. The mere availability of Blu-ray to consumers, while indirectly related, is still a separate thing.

[mjbethancourt]

Originally Posted by kefrank

I appreciate your semantic analysis, but the NPD study that the article references isn't about whether the term mainstream can be applied generally to Blu-ray as a technology. It's about whether or not Blu-ray usage has "penetrated the mainstream" consumer market. The mere availability of Blu-ray to consumers, while indirectly related, is still a separate thing.

Gotta agree with 'Frobean on this one. Everybody knows what blu-ray is, most people now accept that they will have to adopt it at some point, most sooner than later, adoption is already quite widespread, and its available everywhere at all the standard retail stores. "Mainstream" and "dominating the mainstream" are not the same thing.

[P@t_Mtl]

Originally Posted by DetroitSportsFan

That's already been going on for months.

Do they? Must of the stuff I hear on TV is still DVD and then BD.

[Propellarhead9]

Originally Posted by P@t_Mtl

Do they? Must of the stuff I hear on TV is still DVD and then BD.

I watch commercials for a living at the moment its about 50/50 with what they say. Disney about 90% of the time puts Blu-ray first.

As far as Blu becoming mainstream I can totally see it happening just because of how fast people are buying ps3s at the moment and it's probably going to continue in trend through Christmas. The slims are selling like hot cakes.

Content as well is getting to the point where we will start seeing a lot of titles dropping to the sub $15 range for their regular price. (Mainly ones released in like '06, '07 and maybe early '08.)

I'm optomistic that Blu-ray is going to be the dominant source. I also think we are going to see a lot more companies doing what Disney does and put the DVD in the case with it so people can be like hey why don't I just go ahead and get the blu-ray now so i don't have to buy it again later on.

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

Gotta agree with 'Frobean on this one. Everybody knows what blu-ray is, most people now accept that they will have to adopt it at some point, most sooner than later, adoption is already quite widespread, and its available everywhere at all the standard retail stores. "Mainstream" and "dominating the mainstream" are not the same thing.

Sounds like you did some surveys of your own?

It's just semantics. If you read the article, you'll see that the NPD was not concerned with awareness and availability, which seems to be the context in which you and 'frobean are claiming Blu-ray is currently "mainstream." The NPD was concerned with current adoption and usage, which has not "penetrated the mainstream" according to their survey results. I don't disagree with them, but I do expect Blu-ray to do so by the end of the holiday shopping season or just after.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by kefrank

I appreciate your semantic analysis, but the NPD study that the article references isn't about whether the term mainstream can be applied generally to Blu-ray as a technology. It's about whether or not Blu-ray usage has "penetrated the mainstream" consumer market. The mere availability of Blu-ray to consumers, while indirectly related, is still a separate thing.

There is no "mainstream" market (it'd be the homologous total of the market, impossible to measure), and if there was, they're counting the "mainstream" market as the less likely to convert members of the total market rather than being widely available to the total market. If a new technology can permeate in a way that all people are familiar with it but not for non-tech minded people who will never want it, is that not mainstream?

Think of it this way. A small arthouse movie gets picked up for distribution by Disney and gets a wide release. This movie can now be called mainstream regardless of how much money it actually makes, regardless of how it actually appeals to the market. It's the wide release that defines it, and frankly, Blu-ray is almost as wide as it can get.

It all just comes down to them using a term incorrectly to define market penetration. I guess it's somewhat forgivable with them explaining what they mean by it and the fact that there is no word I know of for what they're trying to describe, but it's unfortunate to see them using terms haphazardly like that.

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

It all just comes down to them using a term incorrectly to define market penetration. I guess it's somewhat forgivable with them explaining what they mean by it and the fact that there is no word I know of for what they're trying to describe, but it's unfortunate to see them using terms haphazardly like that.

This is really the only point I disagree with you on. I don't believe they're using the term "mainstream" incorrectly. They're just using it differently than you. The NPD study is about Blu-ray usage "penetrating the mainstream." "Mainstream" as a noun means the principal or dominant course, tendency, or trend according to at least one dictionary and that's exactly the way they use it. Blu-ray usage has not yet become the dominant course or tendency, but it is quickly headed there. Seems accurate to me.