When will Blu-ray become mainstream? - Blu-ray Forum

hendra · 02-23-2008, 04:37 AM

When are we going to see Blu-Ray drives installed at almost every single notebook sold in the US? Right now, very few models come with Blu-Ray and no super thin and light notebook has one eventhough Panasonic has released samples that will fit with a super thin and light notebook.

Marcusarilius · 02-23-2008, 04:41 AM

My guess for PCs is all in 2 to 4 years.

A BD player in almost every home? 5 to 8 years.

rawsausage · 03-24-2008, 01:40 PM

It might also be that Bluray will never reach the same diffusion level. Many people are planning to skip it entirely because it simply does not work. I for one will not get a drive before the applications for movie playback exists for my operating system.

Others can't see very big reason to migrate to Bluray as the difference between DVD and Bluray is in THEIR opinion neglible. (I don't really get it personally but many people are satisfied with DVD already.) Also given the advancements in network speeds and how networked services can be built it might be that some consumers had the DVD as the last physical media they will ever buy.

In the end it might take much longer time than anticipated for high diffusion level of Bluray devices, and it might not ever even realize at all. The cream skimming tactics of the industry aren't helping that either.

jk1138 · 03-24-2008, 01:52 PM

???

SilverFireshot · 03-24-2008, 02:11 PM

HD is still a fairly small market. Prices are just starting to get to average consumer level prices for good HDTV's. My guess is you will see a good spike of HDTV sales at the end of this year. It's hard to estimate this format change because it's not the same as going from VHS to DVD. That change you didn't need a new TV to watch the DVD, just a player. My conservative estimate is it will be at least 10 years before Blu-ray starts to overtake DVD as the average mainstream format. Of course by then there may be another format emerging or Digital Downloads might take off (I highly doubt it). Hell it was only a couple of years ago when DVD overtook VHS.

Aaron · 03-24-2008, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

My guess for PCs is all in 2 to 4 years.

A BD player in almost every home? 5 to 8 years.

5-8 years? You have to be kidding. I would say in the next 3 years most homes will have a BD player.

SilverFireshot · 03-24-2008, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron

5-8 years? You have to be kidding. I would say in the next 3 years most homes will have a BD player.

Most homes don't even have HDTV's yet.

Joe Cain · 03-24-2008, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron

5-8 years? You have to be kidding. I would say in the next 3 years most homes will have a BD player.

In 3 years most homes might have HDTVs, but BD players?

It took DVD about a decade to reach into 4 out of TV-owning households.

Aaron · 03-24-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilverFireshot

Most homes don't even have HDTV's yet.

Yet... but in 3 years I'm sure most homes will have HDTV's because they're becoming so much cheaper compared to 2 years ago. In Feb 2009 I'm sure that there will be a many people upgrade.

Aaron · 03-24-2008, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

In 3 years most homes might have HDTVs, but BD players?

It took DVD about a decade to reach into 4 out of TV-owning households.

Ok, if DVD got into 80% of households in 10 years, then BD should get into at least 50% in 3~5 years.

maximiza · 03-24-2008, 02:23 PM

Next year you will see a huge increase, people will be buying all new systems with the mandatory change over to digital broadcasting. High Definition will be the standard unlike what it is today.

SilverFireshot · 03-24-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aaron

Ok, if DVD got into 80% of households in 10 years, then BD should get into at least 50% in 3~5 years.

Like I said you can't go by the same standard as VHS to DVD because you didn't need to get a new TV when you upgraded to DVD, just a new player.

I do expect the digital conversion will cause a lot of people to make the leap into HD, but most will just get a converter box so they can still watch everything on the TV they have now (trust me my wife works at a major television provider and she is constantly getting requests for converter boxes).

I'm not saying I don't want it to become standard sooner, that's good for everyone! I'm just being realistic with past market trends plus the changes in this format. I hope I'm wrong though

maximiza · 03-24-2008, 02:33 PM

Standerd definition will become very "last century". I mean old fuddy duddie geriatric types will want converter boxes but real mainstream people will just upgrade. Time will tell of course.

Wreck · 03-24-2008, 02:40 PM

Quote:

When will blu-ray become mainstream?

When you no longer see threads like these... seriously, think about it.

glogrono · 03-24-2008, 04:03 PM

It will be directly related to the number of HDTV sets in homes. Also, what some people have said already, many people just don't see a difference in PQ between dvd's and Blu Ray's. This makes me so angry!!! I hate to say it, but it's mostly girls. My girlfriend and my room mate's girlfriend can't see the difference!! My gf's starting to understand and see the quality, but it's so weird that someone would be able to watch Pirates on Blu and say it looks just like the DVD.

navyman · 03-24-2008, 04:10 PM

I think you guys are too focused on the hd aspect of blu-ray. No doubt that hd video and sound are the major draw to blu-ray, but even people without hd sets and home theater systems can benefit from blu-ray. One example is the added language tracks. Speaking from experiance (I am the son of Portuguese immigrants and my girlfriend's parents came from China) the ability for people whose first language is something other then English to sit down and be able to better understand a movie is worth more then the fact that the image looks prettier. I think that will help sell quite a few more players and it is one of many advantages that they have over digiital files.

syncguy · 03-28-2008, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glogrono

It will be directly related to the number of HDTV sets in homes.

Yes, I agree with this. blu-ray take up will closely follow at least reasonable size HDTV sales (say 40" and above).

Once people upgrade the TV set they would start seeing imperfections of the picture quality (of course subject to, screen resolution, size, seating distance, mindset etc). The available solution to fix this issue is blu-ray. I expect blu-ray will be taken up faster than the average thinking. To realise this, blu-ray players and disks should be aligned with mass market price points.

02-23-2008, 04:37 AM	#1
hendra Active Member Member since:Dec 2007	When will Blu-ray become mainstream? When are we going to see Blu-Ray drives installed at almost every single notebook sold in the US? Right now, very few models come with Blu-Ray and no super thin and light notebook has one eventhough Panasonic has released samples that will fit with a super thin and light notebook.

03-24-2008, 01:40 PM	#3
rawsausage New Member Member since:Mar 2008	Alpha geeks It might also be that Bluray will never reach the same diffusion level. Many people are planning to skip it entirely because it simply does not work. I for one will not get a drive before the applications for movie playback exists for my operating system. Others can't see very big reason to migrate to Bluray as the difference between DVD and Bluray is in THEIR opinion neglible. (I don't really get it personally but many people are satisfied with DVD already.) Also given the advancements in network speeds and how networked services can be built it might be that some consumers had the DVD as the last physical media they will ever buy. In the end it might take much longer time than anticipated for high diffusion level of Bluray devices, and it might not ever even realize at all. The cream skimming tactics of the industry aren't helping that either.

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02-23-2008, 04:41 AM	#2
Marcusarilius Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Seattle, WA. Blu-ray reviews:52 Trading Score:1	My guess for PCs is all in 2 to 4 years. A BD player in almost every home? 5 to 8 years.

03-24-2008, 01:52 PM	#4
jk1138 Special Member Member since:Jan 2008 Location:FL Blu-ray collection:32 Blu-ray reviews:59 Trading Score:27	???

03-24-2008, 02:11 PM	#5
SilverFireshot Senior Member Member since:Mar 2008 Location:Boise, ID Blu-ray collection:153	HD is still a fairly small market. Prices are just starting to get to average consumer level prices for good HDTV's. My guess is you will see a good spike of HDTV sales at the end of this year. It's hard to estimate this format change because it's not the same as going from VHS to DVD. That change you didn't need a new TV to watch the DVD, just a player. My conservative estimate is it will be at least 10 years before Blu-ray starts to overtake DVD as the average mainstream format. Of course by then there may be another format emerging or Digital Downloads might take off (I highly doubt it). Hell it was only a couple of years ago when DVD overtook VHS.

03-24-2008, 02:23 PM	#11
maximiza Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Queens Village, NYC	Next year you will see a huge increase, people will be buying all new systems with the mandatory change over to digital broadcasting. High Definition will be the standard unlike what it is today.

03-24-2008, 02:33 PM	#13
maximiza Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Queens Village, NYC	Standerd definition will become very "last century". I mean old fuddy duddie geriatric types will want converter boxes but real mainstream people will just upgrade. Time will tell of course.

03-24-2008, 04:03 PM	#15
glogrono Active Member Member since:Jan 2008	It will be directly related to the number of HDTV sets in homes. Also, what some people have said already, many people just don't see a difference in PQ between dvd's and Blu Ray's. This makes me so angry!!! I hate to say it, but it's mostly girls. My girlfriend and my room mate's girlfriend can't see the difference!! My gf's starting to understand and see the quality, but it's so weird that someone would be able to watch Pirates on Blu and say it looks just like the DVD.

03-24-2008, 04:10 PM	#16
navyman Active Member Member since:Mar 2008 Location:Ingleside, Texas Blu-ray collection:147 Blu-ray reviews:2	I think you guys are too focused on the hd aspect of blu-ray. No doubt that hd video and sound are the major draw to blu-ray, but even people without hd sets and home theater systems can benefit from blu-ray. One example is the added language tracks. Speaking from experiance (I am the son of Portuguese immigrants and my girlfriend's parents came from China) the ability for people whose first language is something other then English to sit down and be able to better understand a movie is worth more then the fact that the image looks prettier. I think that will help sell quite a few more players and it is one of many advantages that they have over digiital files.

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