Home Video Sales Thread (HMM weekly/DEG quarterly/Nielsen Top 20/etc.)

[Lee A Stewart]

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

[Lee A Stewart]

[Lee A Stewart]

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

[unberechenbar]

Nice to see some green for once.

[Lee A Stewart]

[Steedeel]

John Wick 4.

[Boccaccio]

And next week should be the numbers for the 2 Avatars.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Boccaccio

And next week should be the numbers for the 2 Avatars.

Very interested to see how that does.

[bladerunner6]

“
Originally Posted by cgpublic View Post
That's right, trending to $500M within the next three to five years, not 2030, depending on the content/theatrical exhibition situation.

That's $1.2B with Star Wars and 2019/2020 theatrical releases.

With Hollywood at a standstill, do you think that the trend is going to flatten, or will it feed on itself and spiral exponentially?

$2B this year would be golden given Disney, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel and DC have nothing in the pipeline, and if it hits the fan re: theatrical, you'll never see that number again.

Like I said, it's a good thing the market is active with plenty of low-volume, interesting releases, because the days of mass-market physical media is drawing to a close.“

Originally Posted by bladerunner6

I am not going to get into any current debate.

Just at three, four and five years from now I will post in the thread how well your prediction is going.

500 million per year no later than five years from now and no earlier than three years from now.

I will give 10% fudge factor so if it is 550 million or less you will be deemed correct.

See you on 6/30/23!

Bye until then.

Still an over $1 billion a year market in the US.

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/circan...till-spinning/

[cgpublic]

Originally Posted by bladerunner6

I am not going to get into any current debate.

Just at three, four and five years from now I will post in the thread how well your prediction is going.

500 million per year no later than five years from now and no earlier than three years from now.

I will give 10% fudge factor so if it is 550 million or less you will be deemed correct.

See you on 6/30/23!

Bye until then.

Ha ha ha. You remembered!

Too bad you've forgotten how to count.

The number you are quoting is for the last nine months of 2022 and the first three months of 2023.

Unfortunately for you and the mass market physical media segment, I was right on the money.

When I originally posted, physical media was an approximate $2B segment. The numbers for 2023 are trending below $1B, so we are looking at a decline of approximately 50%.

If we breakout Blu-ray/UHD and set aside DVD, you are looking at an approximate $500M segment for 2023.

Do you want to guess what the numbers will be for 2025, the last year of my window, given the present trends?

Listen, this trend is what it is, which is why I've built up my library over the last five years to upwards of 2K discs.

And as I stated then and will continue to believe until proven otherwise, a very vibrant micro and secondary market inline with vinyl sales will exist for physical film media.

Just don't count on finding anything other than a shipper of new releases at Walmart, Target or Best Buy in a few years, if that, or on point with my original post, that this trend is a temporary pandemic-related downturn and would bounce back.

[Vilya]

Trying to exclude DVD sales now, three years after making your initial prediction that included them, is just an attempt to move the goalposts.

Physical media sales for 2022 were $1.58287 billion.



^The figures in this chart do not include any sales data from 2023.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

The Digital Entertainment Group's report for the 1st quarter of 2023 is out, but for some peculiar reason they are now combining disc sales with disc rentals.



https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

Disc sales for 2023 have a very good chance to stay above $1 billion as there are some very popular titles hitting the market this year.

[Vilya]

Physical media sales for 2023, as of week ending June 10, 2023, stand at $500.43 million.

I added up all of the charts that Lee has posted for 2023 to arrive at that figure starting with his post showing the figures for week ending Jan. 7, 2023 up until now.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Physical media sales for 2023, as of week ending June 10, 2023, stand at $500.43 million.

I added up all of the charts that Lee has posted for 2023 to arrive at that figure starting with his post showing the figures for week ending Jan. 7, 2023 up until now.

It’s obviously going to be over 1 billion by year’s end. Heck, we still have Avatar to count, not to mention Barbie (obvious smash hit) which could do Mario numbers. Loads of titles to come and I’m very confident it won’t drop below 1 billion.

And yeah, CGpublic will always move the goalposts to fit his argument.

[cgpublic]

Physical media sales totaled $3.2B in 2019.

Physical media sales totaled $1.5B in 2022, a decline of over 50% in a three year period.

We're trending to approximately $1B in 2023.

The numbers and related rate of decline speaks for itself.

My original post three years ago simply highlighted an opinion that the rate of decline in physical media sales would not hold steady at 15% or 20%, but would begin to increase exponentially due to the nature of the underlying factors, e.g., the growth of streaming, the decline of brick and mortar availability, etc.

I don't know what to tell you other than let's see where we are in 2025.

There's no side here. Just numbers. Pick your own.

[Lee A Stewart]

It is going to be a bit more difficult to ascertain what the PM sales for 2023 are because the DEG has combined sales and rentals. The only sure way is what Vilya did - count the weekly sales.

He's given us a start: week ending June 10, 2023, stand at $500.43 million. I can add the running total below the weekly DVD/BD Pie Chart. So it will look like this:

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

$500.43 million.

[cgpublic]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

It is going to be a bit more difficult to ascertain what the PM sales for 2023 are because the DEG has combined sales and rentals.

Let me guess. Someone moved the goal posts.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

Let me guess. Someone moved the goal posts.

According to the DEG, total PM rentals for 2022 were $500 million. With Netflix stopping their service this year (09/23) that's an automatic $145.7 million reduction. Add to that the yearly 17% loss in revenue. The number is getting too small to track. So, to offset some of the shrinkage in PM sales, they combined the two.