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Old 11-30-2022, 03:14 PM   #4201
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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/mo...re-1235271483/

Inside James Cameronís Billion-Dollar Bet on ĎAvatarí
The director on spending a decade of his life ó not to mention hundreds of Disneyís millions ó to make ĎAvatar: The Way of Water,í the long-awaited second film in his ambitious and risky franchise: ďThereís skepticism in the marketplace. Can anybody even remember the characters' names? Weíll see what happens after this film."
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Old 12-01-2022, 09:05 AM   #4202
samlop10 samlop10 is online now
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Originally Posted by Steedeel View Post
Minions budget was 80 million, it made nearly 12 times that amount. That’s impressive in ANY year.

Barely 1 billion for JW? It still made it. It’s the third film and the 2nd one received a mixed reception. It’s budget was 150 million, so again a very healthy profit.

The Batman underachieved slightly, but audiences were jaded from BVS. Batman Begins only made 400,000, it’s not the first time an opening film in the franchise struggled. You know what happened next with TDK. The next one will do better.

I’m far more optimistic than you. It’s been an horrific two years but we are going in the right direction.

This made up law that all films have to make 1 billion to be financially successful is a total myth anyway.

Like I said, 2023 will look better and continue the recovery.
I’m not arguing whether the BO in general has turned a profit or not. It has. What I’m saying is the trend in overall numbers is still lower than previous years, especially on blockbusters, and audiences do not seem interested enough to get the overall numbers back to pre-pandemic levels.

If you compare overall numbers from year to year, this year is one of the worst ones. Especially during these past few weeks when you compare the same weekends year-to-year.

It’s not like I want theaters/cinemas to die. I love going to the movies (I go almost every weekend and sometimes even 2 or 3 times/week). But I do think Hollywood and theaters need to put more effort into the films they make, and how they are shown. They were relying on people making the movies one of their top choices for entertainment. That’s gone. Streaming has taken that option over going out to the cinemas. Hollywood has also been very reliant on making money based on IPs (sequels, reboots, remakes, universe-connected films) while being more blatant with their politics, and that is just not working as well anymore for them. Cinemas do not care if people use their phones, talk, or are in general disruptive while the movie plays either. And concessions are generally gas-station levels of quality but 5-10x more expensive. Has there been profits overall in the BO? Yes. Is it as good or better than previous years (pre-covid)? Definitely not. And it seems to be going lower. And using covid itself as the reasoning behind that does not make sense anymore since there have been films post-lockdowns that have surpassed BO records, but most are making less than expectations, even if some still turn a profit. People are just not as interested anymore in the bigger movies being made, save for very few exceptions.

My point is the industry has to focus more on pure entertainment, less on politics, and also more on making the experience better/more considerate of people that go to actually watch and enjoy the film. That is if they want to bring their numbers up. And being they are primarily a business and the people behind the money want bigger profits, seeing these lower numbers is not good for them. Business will always want bigger numbers. It’s extremely rare when a business is satisfied by merely making ‘a’ profit. The great majority are always looking to make bigger profits. And at this point in time, the movie business is not meeting those wanted expectations.
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Old 12-01-2022, 10:34 AM   #4203
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Originally Posted by samlop10 View Post
I’m not arguing whether the BO in general has turned a profit or not. It has. What I’m saying is the trend in overall numbers is still lower than previous years, especially on blockbusters, and audiences do not seem interested enough to get the overall numbers back to pre-pandemic levels.

If you compare overall numbers from year to year, this year is one of the worst ones. Especially during these past few weeks when you compare the same weekends year-to-year.

It’s not like I want theaters/cinemas to die. I love going to the movies (I go almost every weekend and sometimes even 2 or 3 times/week). But I do think Hollywood and theaters need to put more effort into the films they make, and how they are shown. They were relying on people making the movies one of their top choices for entertainment. That’s gone. Streaming has taken that option over going out to the cinemas. Hollywood has also been very reliant on making money based on IPs (sequels, reboots, remakes, universe-connected films) while being more blatant with their politics, and that is just not working as well anymore for them. Cinemas do not care if people use their phones, talk, or are in general disruptive while the movie plays either. And concessions are generally gas-station levels of quality but 5-10x more expensive. Has there been profits overall in the BO? Yes. Is it as good or better than previous years (pre-covid)? Definitely not. And it seems to be going lower. And using covid itself as the reasoning behind that does not make sense anymore since there have been films post-lockdowns that have surpassed BO records, but most are making less than expectations, even if some still turn a profit. People are just not as interested anymore in the bigger movies being made, save for very few exceptions.

My point is the industry has to focus more on pure entertainment, less on politics, and also more on making the experience better/more considerate of people that go to actually watch and enjoy the film. That is if they want to bring their numbers up. And being they are primarily a business and the people behind the money want bigger profits, seeing these lower numbers is not good for them. Business will always want bigger numbers. It’s extremely rare when a business is satisfied by merely making ‘a’ profit. The great majority are always looking to make bigger profits. And at this point in time, the movie business is not meeting those wanted expectations.
With China and Russia out of the equation and movies taking a substantial hit to their box office post-pandemic, I think studios are going to be a lot less inclined to spend $200m+ on a single movie, at least until things go back to how they were pre-2020 (if that ever happens).

Lots of recent titles could have been decent hits, if they had a more reasonable budget: Black Adam, Fantastic Beasts, Bullet Train, Lightyear, even Thor L&T (which did turn a profit, but thanks to it's $250m price tag, it was quite small).
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Old 12-01-2022, 10:55 AM   #4204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samlop10 View Post
I’m not arguing whether the BO in general has turned a profit or not. It has. What I’m saying is the trend in overall numbers is still lower than previous years, especially on blockbusters, and audiences do not seem interested enough to get the overall numbers back to pre-pandemic levels.

If you compare overall numbers from year to year, this year is one of the worst ones. Especially during these past few weeks when you compare the same weekends year-to-year.

It’s not like I want theaters/cinemas to die. I love going to the movies (I go almost every weekend and sometimes even 2 or 3 times/week). But I do think Hollywood and theaters need to put more effort into the films they make, and how they are shown. They were relying on people making the movies one of their top choices for entertainment. That’s gone. Streaming has taken that option over going out to the cinemas. Hollywood has also been very reliant on making money based on IPs (sequels, reboots, remakes, universe-connected films) while being more blatant with their politics, and that is just not working as well anymore for them. Cinemas do not care if people use their phones, talk, or are in general disruptive while the movie plays either. And concessions are generally gas-station levels of quality but 5-10x more expensive. Has there been profits overall in the BO? Yes. Is it as good or better than previous years (pre-covid)? Definitely not. And it seems to be going lower. And using covid itself as the reasoning behind that does not make sense anymore since there have been films post-lockdowns that have surpassed BO records, but most are making less than expectations, even if some still turn a profit. People are just not as interested anymore in the bigger movies being made, save for very few exceptions.

My point is the industry has to focus more on pure entertainment, less on politics, and also more on making the experience better/more considerate of people that go to actually watch and enjoy the film. That is if they want to bring their numbers up. And being they are primarily a business and the people behind the money want bigger profits, seeing these lower numbers is not good for them. Business will always want bigger numbers. It’s extremely rare when a business is satisfied by merely making ‘a’ profit. The great majority are always looking to make bigger profits. And at this point in time, the movie business is not meeting those wanted expectations.
I take it on board but you are missing some vital points. First, we have had a three month gap in Blockbusters due to the production process and COVID. Basically, 2022 was only ever going to be a bridging year, with 2023 being the year when numbers are expected to get closer to pre-pandemic. Three months without blockbusters is just too much of a disadvantage for this year.

Another factor is the cost of living crisis. I don’t know about the USA but here, it’s really grim. People are putting off many things they do for entertainment, theatre, cinemas, concerts, even holidays. That won’t be for ever.

Studios need to stop releasing streaming content so close to the cinema date though. That’s not helping one little bit and in the long run, it’s crippling the studios because streaming services are not turning healthy profits.

Like we said, the saving grace is horror films, with 90% turning a healthy profit this year. Studios will need some more of that along with a couple of mega hits from the blockbusters.

The point is though, we are still having COVID outbreaks and it’s Winter, plus 2019 didn’t have a global cost of living crisis to deal with. You can’t just say COVID isn’t a factor, numbers peak in different areas, at different times of the year.

I’m not saying it will go back to that in 2023, but I do think it will continue the recovery.
It’s my opinion that next year will be healthy with at least 6 films making 1 billion or more.

Feel free to bookmark.
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Old 12-01-2022, 11:08 AM   #4205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedrox View Post
With China and Russia out of the equation and movies taking a substantial hit to their box office post-pandemic, I think studios are going to be a lot less inclined to spend $200m+ on a single movie, at least until things go back to how they were pre-2020 (if that ever happens).

Lots of recent titles could have been decent hits, if they had a more reasonable budget: Black Adam, Fantastic Beasts, Bullet Train, Lightyear, even Thor L&T (which did turn a profit, but thanks to it's $250m price tag, it was quite small).
I think eventually, Disney will start showing the premier of all their tv shows on the big screen for extra profit. Think Loki, Wandavision, Ms Marvel.
In the future, there is going to be X-Men with the potential for spin off tv shows for many of the mutants.

I do think there is potential for other studios there as well. Not sure of the mechanics but I can see it happening.

In the long term though, I agree that budgets will drop slightly, although there is only so much you can cut when you consider the main attractions are comic book movies. Can creatives give us gripping, compelling content with maybe 2-3 absolutely outstanding action sequences and more focus on characters and tension? Every Marvel film not concluding with a CG mash up would help.
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Old 12-01-2022, 11:39 AM   #4206
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I think eventually, Disney will start showing the premier of all their tv shows on the big screen for extra profit. Think Loki, Wandavision, Ms Marvel.
In the future, there is going to be X-Men with the potential for spin off tv shows for many of the mutants.

I do think there is potential for other studios there as well. Not sure of the mechanics but I can see it happening.

In the long term though, I agree that budgets will drop slightly, although there is only so much you can cut when you consider the main attractions are comic book movies. Can creatives give us gripping, compelling content with maybe 2-3 absolutely outstanding action sequences and more focus on characters and tension? Every Marvel film not concluding with a CG mash up would help.
TV on the big screen has never attracted people, because they'd rather just wait an extra week or two and see it at home. Just look at all of Netflix's limited theatrical releases, outside of Glass Onion, none of them have been noteworthy.

TV is actually one of the reasons Cinemas are in decline, because the quality of content produced for home consumption has increased so much over the years that people have gotten more selective with what they'll spend their money on to go see on the big screen. Movies have to offer the kind of spectacle that's currently not possible on a series budget to draw in the crowds, which is getting more and more difficult as streaming quality rises.

So it's a vicious cycle or spending more to attract the audience, while also needing to spend less to reduce the growing risk or losing money.

Last edited by Hedrox; 12-01-2022 at 11:47 AM.
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Old 12-01-2022, 11:42 AM   #4207
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Originally Posted by Hedrox View Post
TV on the big screen has never attracted people, because they'd rather just wait and extra week or two and see it at home. Just look at all of Netflix's limited theatrical releases, outside of Glass Onion, none of them have been noteworthy.

TV is actually one of the reasons Cinemas are in decline, because the quality of content produced for home consumption has increased so much over the years that people have gotten more selective with what they'll spend their money on to go see on the big screen. Movies have to offer the kind of spectacle that's currently not possible on a series budget to draw in the crowds, which is getting more and more difficult as streaming quality rises.
I honestly wouldnít rule it out, although I take your view on board.
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Old 12-01-2022, 04:20 PM   #4208
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Jim - settle down there, bro..... LOL.

https://www.darkhorizons.com/cameron...7-possibility/
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Old 12-01-2022, 04:33 PM   #4209
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Jim - settle down there, bro..... LOL.

https://www.darkhorizons.com/cameron...7-possibility/
Vin Diesel is finishing up the Fast Saga. Now he needs another franchise with 8 sequels to latch onto. Makes sense.
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Old 12-01-2022, 05:27 PM   #4210
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Jim - settle down there, bro..... LOL.

https://www.darkhorizons.com/cameron...7-possibility/
The title is a bit misleading, what he actually says in the THR interview is that the story/world can continue beyond a 5th movie, if they're successful. So really nothing out of the ordinary.

What's more interesting is that he's thinking of these movies in pairs, he might be seeing them as 2-part story arcs, first 2 being Jake's story, next 2 his kids story and so on.
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Old 12-02-2022, 05:54 AM   #4211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedrox View Post
With China and Russia out of the equation and movies taking a substantial hit to their box office post-pandemic, I think studios are going to be a lot less inclined to spend $200m+ on a single movie, at least until things go back to how they were pre-2020 (if that ever happens).

Lots of recent titles could have been decent hits, if they had a more reasonable budget: Black Adam, Fantastic Beasts, Bullet Train, Lightyear, even Thor L&T (which did turn a profit, but thanks to it's $250m price tag, it was quite small).
Yeah, I am amazed at some of the inflated budgets. If the stories and writing are better, I would not mind lower-budget films.
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Old 12-02-2022, 06:19 AM   #4212
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Originally Posted by Steedeel View Post
I take it on board but you are missing some vital points. First, we have had a three month gap in Blockbusters due to the production process and COVID. Basically, 2022 was only ever going to be a bridging year, with 2023 being the year when numbers are expected to get closer to pre-pandemic. Three months without blockbusters is just too much of a disadvantage for this year.

Another factor is the cost of living crisis. I donít know about the USA but here, itís really grim. People are putting off many things they do for entertainment, theatre, cinemas, concerts, even holidays. That wonít be for ever.

Studios need to stop releasing streaming content so close to the cinema date though. Thatís not helping one little bit and in the long run, itís crippling the studios because streaming services are not turning healthy profits.

Like we said, the saving grace is horror films, with 90% turning a healthy profit this year. Studios will need some more of that along with a couple of mega hits from the blockbusters.

The point is though, we are still having COVID outbreaks and itís Winter, plus 2019 didnít have a global cost of living crisis to deal with. You canít just say COVID isnít a factor, numbers peak in different areas, at different times of the year.

Iím not saying it will go back to that in 2023, but I do think it will continue the recovery.
Itís my opinion that next year will be healthy with at least 6 films making 1 billion or more.

Feel free to bookmark.
Thing is, even if you look at franchises individually (instead of adding up the total BO and comparing it to previous years pre-covid), they also show a decline in their own individual profit trends. The MCU has earned less money despite having the same number of films come out this year as other years pre-covid. Same with the Minions/Despicable Me franchise, same with Jurassic World.

We have had hits that have broken BO records post-covid so it does not make sense to say it is still a factor. When Spider-Man: No Way Home came out covid numbers were higher than they are now (and that was also a packed holiday season with other blockbusters, like The King's Man and The Matrix: Resurrections) so again, saying people are still scared of covid to go to the cinema is just not true. If more people had enough interest, they would go to the cinema.

It is true a lot of economies are going into a recession, and that could very well affect the BO given how inflated tickets prices and concessions have become. But that goes back to my point of people preferring to stay at home to stream great content, saving money on tickets, food, plus being more comfortable and not having to deal with inconsiderate patrons.

The movie industry has to give better/more entertaining films if they want profits to be comparable to pre-covid times, and theaters need to focus on making the watching experience better too (cleaner theaters, being stricter on phone usage and talking). It's hard for people to justify going when they have a more enjoyable time staying at home. They have to make it so people have a better experience going to the cinema vs staying at home.
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Old 12-02-2022, 06:24 AM   #4213
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Originally Posted by samlop10 View Post
The movie industry has to give better/more entertaining films if they want profits to be comparable to pre-covid times, and theaters need to focus on making the watching experience better too (cleaner theaters, being stricter on phone usage and talking). It's hard for people to justify going when they have a more enjoyable time staying at home. They have to make it so people have a better experience going to the cinema vs staying at home.
The 3 largest movie theater chains are still buried under massive debt loads. What you are suggesting cost them money in the form of additional labor. That is something they have been trying to cut. It's their second biggest expense behind rent.
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Old 12-02-2022, 08:24 AM   #4214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedrox View Post
With China and Russia out of the equation and movies taking a substantial hit to their box office post-pandemic, I think studios are going to be a lot less inclined to spend $200m+ on a single movie, at least until things go back to how they were pre-2020 (if that ever happens).

Lots of recent titles could have been decent hits, if they had a more reasonable budget: Black Adam, Fantastic Beasts, Bullet Train, Lightyear, even Thor L&T (which did turn a profit, but thanks to it's $250m price tag, it was quite small).
Movies are being shown in Russia again.
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Old 12-02-2022, 09:07 AM   #4215
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Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart View Post
The 3 largest movie theater chains are still buried under massive debt loads. What you are suggesting cost them money in the form of additional labor. That is something they have been trying to cut. It's their second biggest expense behind rent.
That may very well be true, but this fact isnít going to change peopleís minds to go more often to the cinema.
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Old 12-02-2022, 10:17 AM   #4216
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Originally Posted by samlop10 View Post
Thing is, even if you look at franchises individually (instead of adding up the total BO and comparing it to previous years pre-covid), they also show a decline in their own individual profit trends. The MCU has earned less money despite having the same number of films come out this year as other years pre-covid. Same with the Minions/Despicable Me franchise, same with Jurassic World.

We have had hits that have broken BO records post-covid so it does not make sense to say it is still a factor. When Spider-Man: No Way Home came out covid numbers were higher than they are now (and that was also a packed holiday season with other blockbusters, like The King's Man and The Matrix: Resurrections) so again, saying people are still scared of covid to go to the cinema is just not true. If more people had enough interest, they would go to the cinema.

It is true a lot of economies are going into a recession, and that could very well affect the BO given how inflated tickets prices and concessions have become. But that goes back to my point of people preferring to stay at home to stream great content, saving money on tickets, food, plus being more comfortable and not having to deal with inconsiderate patrons.

The movie industry has to give better/more entertaining films if they want profits to be comparable to pre-covid times, and theaters need to focus on making the watching experience better too (cleaner theaters, being stricter on phone usage and talking). It's hard for people to justify going when they have a more enjoyable time staying at home. They have to make it so people have a better experience going to the cinema vs staying at home.
We have had lesser Marvel in a way though. Spidey is always huge (hence the takings) Thor and Black Panther to but what else have we had? Black Widow, The Eternals and Ten Rings. Hardly tent pole Marvel for the ones that didnít do great.

Pixar has been ruined by release dates on Disney+. There absolutely should be at least a 4-5 month wait otherwise they arenít as prestige anymore.

Tom cruise pushed for the long theatrical period and it paid off in spades.

Warner have learnt the lesson, other studios need to too.
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Old 12-02-2022, 11:16 AM   #4217
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Originally Posted by Steedeel View Post
We have had lesser Marvel in a way though. Spidey is always huge (hence the takings) Thor and Black Panther to but what else have we had? Black Widow, The Eternals and Ten Rings. Hardly tent pole Marvel for the ones that didn’t do great.

Pixar has been ruined by release dates on Disney+. There absolutely should be at least a 4-5 month wait otherwise they aren’t as prestige anymore.

Tom cruise pushed for the long theatrical period and it paid off in spades.

Warner have learnt the lesson, other studios need to too.
I would say Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is pretty tentpole by now given it also has Wanda in it. Thor: Love and Thunder also, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever too. All of them bigger MCU films of known characters already (they are not new nor solo character films), all from this year as well, and they all came in lower than expected.

It could be D+ having that effect on Pixar, but at the same time I have yet to watch a Pixar film since Toy Story 4 that I could say was great. Most have been 'meh' or just good, but not great, imo anyway. I would not be surprised if most people felt similarly. The higher story quality they were known for has not been there for a little while now. I do not think it's just the D+ release strategy.


I agree oother studios need to learn as well. But at this point streaming services are not just going to stop releasing content to re-condition people to go to the cinema more. Netflix barely releases a few of their films in cinemas, and the majority of the few that they do release in cinemas get the bare minimum to qualify for awards (i.e. they sometimes release films in a single cinema for a single week). And the way studios are competing with that right now is with their own streaming services. I think if they want people to opt for a trip to the cinema instead of staying at home for Netflix, they will need to increase the film quality/entertainment value and cinema experience.

Last edited by samlop10; 12-02-2022 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 12-02-2022, 12:21 PM   #4218
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Movies are being shown in Russia again.
Is Russia that big of a market anyway ? China maybe, but Russia ?
And how much is going back to the studios ? Maybe only a small part like China.
I don't think the studios care about Russia.
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Old 12-02-2022, 12:37 PM   #4219
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Originally Posted by Boccaccio View Post
Is Russia that big of a market anyway ? China maybe, but Russia ?
And how much is going back to the studios ? Maybe only a small part like China.
I don't think the studios care about Russia.
143m population and in 2009 Avatar did $116m there, quite a big number.
Not sure how much is going back to studio from there. But now Russia is out of question, China is more to speculate on as they approved Avatar 2 showing but still they have more than half of cinemas closed due to zero covid policies.
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Old 12-02-2022, 02:43 PM   #4220
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Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart View Post
The 3 largest movie theater chains are still buried under massive debt loads. What you are suggesting cost them money in the form of additional labor. That is something they have been trying to cut. It's their second biggest expense behind rent.
Nearly all of the chain theaters here have one person at the ticket line. There are multiple kiosks, tickets are generally ripped at concession. Waiting for them to install turnstiles and you just scan your ticket to get in.
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