Avatar Way of the Water BO Predictions

[Ricky G]

We can't really know what's going to happen at the box office. However, it is almost 100% guaranteed that James Cameron will have something to say about it by Monday after release.

[raptors661]

Originally Posted by s2mikey

It can be. Its rare that a film can pull it off, like the LOTR movies. But those are the exception, not the norm. Theaters hate 3 hour movies. Its a long time for people to sit still, especially kids/teens.

Thats why I asked about the return of intermissions. I think its a great idea and they can run some ads during it if they wanted.

The problem with adding an intermission to 3 hour movies is it will just add to an already long runtime, which would mean limiting the amount of showtimes per day even more than without an intermission. Theaters will never go for that.

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by raptors661

The problem with adding an intermission to 3 hour movies is it will just add to an already long runtime, which would mean limiting the amount of showtimes per day even more than without an intermission. Theaters will never go for that.

Right - but the 3 hour runtime already botches their schedule. They could run ads too and sell that time. Just a thought. .

They used to do it.....right? 2001(that was only 2:40), Lawrence of Arabia, etc.

[Zombo]

The first film had a lot to offer that was new and refreshing for movie goers. The word of mouth had to do with being emersed in a 3D CGI realistic Pandora, that effect has worn off at this point. This film doesn't have new and sensational upgrades in CGI or 3D to get people talking, so I don't expect it to get anywhere near the box office numbers of the first film.

I bet this barely catches up with Top Gun Maverick.

[By_His_Strypes]

I'll never underestimate the power of a James Cameron release... I'd rather have a sequel to The Abyss than Avatar though. But, that's never going to happen. Still, this will do very very well and will wind up in the Top 3 grossing movies of all-time.

[Zivouhr]

Originally Posted by s2mikey

It can be. Its rare that a film can pull it off, like the LOTR movies. But those are the exception, not the norm. Theaters hate 3 hour movies. Its a long time for people to sit still, especially kids/teens.

Thats why I asked about the return of intermissions. I think its a great idea and they can run some ads during it if they wanted.

Interesting idea and it could work for some, though the only intermissions I don't mind are for double features with 2 movies shown and the break in between. For toddlers, they definitely need intermission for lengthy kids movies I bet if they drink a lot of soda. 3 hours isn't too bad, but if a movie is 4 hours, that's getting out of hand, and I could understand an intermission for a 5 hour film too.

The only movie I ever saw an intermission for in theaters (aside from Drive-in theater double features) was the animated Rescuers Down Under. I was like "What is this? An intermission?" But families in the audience took advantage of it with trips to the rest rooms.

Otherwise, I feel the 3 hour movie is being interrupted, and commercials during movies would be very distracting IMO to the flow of the film and the building of potential emotions to the story, almost like watching it on broadcast TV, or the Disney- channel with their new advertisement tier....

Originally Posted by raptors661

The problem with adding an intermission to 3 hour movies is it will just add to an already long runtime, which would mean limiting the amount of showtimes per day even more than without an intermission. Theaters will never go for that.

That's a good point. 3 hours and 10 minutes, plus 10 minute intermission, plus 20 minutes of trailers, = 3 hours and 40 minutes in the movie theater. The theaters wouldn't mind if the customers bought more snacks though.

Originally Posted by Ricky G

We can't really know what's going to happen at the box office. However, it is almost 100% guaranteed that James Cameron will have something to say about it by Monday after release.

Yes, Cameron has been talking probably more than he should lately, criticizing Marvel and DC, criticizing movies that don't film underwater, how much trouble he's in if he doesn't make 2 billion dollars in theaters, how there might only be 3 instead of 5 movies depending on the box office, etc. Best to just focus on his movie and ignore interview questions about other movies and the oversized budget when his film is just about to be released. Some who are on the fence with seeing the movie might get upset with some of his criticisms and comments, and then not see the movie.

[hanshotfirst1138]

I’m curious. Cameron has twice now had a movie open OK and then become the biggest movie ever made, so I don’t know what to think.

[Camellott89]

The fact that this film will open wide... and in China. I feel that this will be massive. I live in the US and have a lot of love for Cameron and the original. I'll for sure be seeing this a few times in IMAX 3D.

However, it seems it will hit bigger over seas.

[Lee A Stewart]

“I Wanna See a Movie” Goes Viral as COVID Lockdown Protest Slogan in China

Various chants, slogans and euphemisms have enjoyed brief viral moments in China in recent days, as grassroots protests spread to cities around the country, reflecting growing public anger over the grinding reality of life under Beijing’s strict COVID controls. But one slogan, in particular, seems to have caught the attention of China’s beleaguered movie industry.

A video showing protestors in Shanghai chanting, “I wanna see a movie!” was widely shared on WeChat among Chinese film fans and industry professionals over the weekend. The statement appears to be a reflection of one of the many everyday privileges that some in China feel they have lost as the third year of the pandemic wears on, with no end to Beijing’s COVID-zero policy in sight.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...na-1235270357/

[wonderer99]

Originally Posted by By_His_Strypes

I'll never underestimate the power of a James Cameron release... I'd rather have a sequel to The Abyss than Avatar though. But, that's never going to happen. Still, this will do very very well and will wind up in the Top 3 grossing movies of all-time.

Amen. A James Cameron directed sequel to Abyss would be a dream. Unfortunately I think after Pandora Cameron is going to be CG'ing everything he makes now.

[captveg]

Originally Posted by Hedrox

Relatively. Nobody cares about Puss N Boot that much. The first film made $550m WW.

[Boccaccio]

I don't think this will top Maverick. My prediction is 1,35 billion

[Hedrox]

Originally Posted by captveg

Relatively. Nobody cares about Puss N Boot that much. The first film made $550m WW.

That would be a pretty hefty sum in 2022 if it can repeat it, and predictions say it might surpass it.

It's not going to eat into Avatar's gross but it's good counter-programing, and the early reviews and audience reactions are very positive.

[ThulsaMike88]

Avatar and Top Gun: Maverick are apples and oranges. Avatar made most of it's money overseas (over 2 billion) whereas Top Gun was hugely popular in the US and did good numbers overseas (less than a billion). A lot will depend on repeat business and word of mouth in the states. It feels like this one is similar to the original in that people are waiting to see whether the film is good before committing.

[brooks101189]

Originally Posted by captveg

Relatively. Nobody cares about Puss N Boot that much. The first film made $550m WW.

They cared enough to have it get to half a billion, which was a bigger achievement back when it came out.

[Lee A Stewart]

Imax CEO Bets Big On ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ China Box Office Prospects

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/mo...ce-1235271424/

[NARMAK]

Personally i think Disney will make a big marketing push but there's a lot of question marks in the current climate for cinemas. Top Gun bucked the trend and made a lotta bank, but Avatar could end up on the opposite side if people don't end up resonating with audiences and getting positive word of mouth.

[ImBlu_DaBaDee]

1.7 billion already! 2 billion plus is guaranteed. How high will it go?

[Steedeel]

Never doubt Cameron.

[CreasyBear]

Seems likely for a $650-$700M domestic finish and probably around $2.5B worldwide.