Avatar Way of the Water BO Predictions

[Just_Discovered_3D]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Looking at the seating charts, advanced ticket sales look shockingly soft at the moment. 3D, premium format, standard format - doesn't seem to matter. Perhaps the first Avatar movie's cultural impact wasn't that big.

Domestic opening: $140 million
Domestic total: $595 million
Worldwide total: $1.4 billion

It does have the underpublicized issue that while many theaters are showing it, only Dolby and a subset of IMAX theaters are showing it in the way that it is meant to be seen.

I don't know why Disney is so joined at the hip with IMAX these days, but this debacle is serious enough that there's a case to be made that Avatar 2 should only release in those select IMAX and Dolby theaters.

[slumcat]

More than 2 billion easy peasy.

[levcore]

I think it will do over 2 Billion but ultimately i hope it does become the highest grossing movie of all time.

[Socko]

Over 2 billion for sure. Even if the story will be thin as paper.

It's 13 years later and there are new sceneries to gaze at. CGI has improved to be wowed once again. 3D will be strong.
Kids will see this over and over.

Adding the fact that China did about 10% of the international box office back in 2009, surely it will do a lot more. China loves these kinds of movies.

[Just_Discovered_3D]

Originally Posted by Socko

Over 2 billion for sure. Even if the story will be thin as paper.

It's 13 years later and there are new sceneries to gaze at. CGI has improved to be wowed once again. 3D will be strong.
Kids will see this over and over.

Adding the fact that China did about 10% of the international box office back in 2009, surely it will do a lot more. China loves these kinds of movies.

Sadly, it does seem that when movies are made for the Chinese box office by Hollywood that they become, well, intellectually stunted. Crazy phenomenon, most unfortunate.

Although if that means more action and 3D vistas, and less faffing about and endless exposition then maybe that could be a silver lining.

[mwynn]

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Tracking for $150M-$170M Domestic Box Office Opening

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/mo...0f0740c6f56c40

[albertbj]

I was going to say $1-1.5 billion, but then I remembered that Spider-Man: No Way Home made 1.9, and I can't imagine Avatar not being in that same neighborhood. Of course, a big part of it is going to be the length of the theatrical window. If Disney let's it play for several months before putting it out on streaming like Paramount did with Top Gun: Maverick, it should be able to at least approach $2 billion. But if it's already on Disney+ and HBO Max by February or March, all bets are off.

[kylor]

I'll say 1.5 - 2 billion. I reckon that's a safe bet.

[Jonno2009]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Looking at the seating charts, advanced ticket sales look shockingly soft at the moment. 3D, premium format, standard format - doesn't seem to matter. Perhaps the first Avatar movie's cultural impact wasn't that big.

Domestic opening: $140 million
Domestic total: $595 million
Worldwide total: $1.4 billion

Yeah exactly! I’ve never seen a ‘big’ movie have such soft presale ticket sales! Looking at my theater here in downtown montreal even Thursday night screening isn’t sold out? 3 days after tickets went on sale. that's crazy to me.

I know the whole phenomenon of the first one is that it made money CONSISTENTLY across months. And not just ONE giant weekend. But I dunno. I feel like the hype just isn’t there? There’s like no conversation? I guess we’ll see closer to release with reviews and word of mouth.

[wonderer99]

Its either going to be ginormous or Cameron may receive a big shock. I don't think there's much in the way if middle ground here.

[Darev]

I'm not really sure about this. I'm not going to completely judge a 3+ hour movie based on a trailer, but right now the story looks very similar to the first one. Only now it will be two "tribes" learning to work together to win against the "invaders" when the first one was really one on one. We saw this story last time around, and this time the "frenzy" for 3D is long gone.

[ImBlu_DaBaDee]

I was thinking that if the movie is amazing they need to drop reviews early to increase the hype but apparently the embargo for social media is 12/6 and the one for full reviews is 12/13, just 2 days before the first shows.

[wonderer99]

Originally Posted by Darev

I'm not really sure about this. I'm not going to completely judge a 3+ hour movie based on a trailer, but right now the story looks very similar to the first one. Only now it will be two "tribes" learning to work together to win against the "invaders" when the first one was really one on one. We saw this story last time around, and this time the "frenzy" for 3D is long gone.

Plus it cost more, plus it looks the same as the first tech wise, plus we are in a financial crisis, plus streaming wasn't the normal in 09, plus Cameron has had a few misfires since Avatar, plus now we know years later Avatar has practically zero cultural impact whereas people thought it would on the success of the first.

Personally I think this will do very well no matter the storytelling quality. The big test will be number 3. That's gonna drop a fair chunk I think.

[Hindustani]

AVATAR 2 will be a movie event of this god forsaken, pathetic decade.

I know I, for sure, will need to see it atleast twice for $20+ per screening in IMAX and DOLBY. 3D or Not.

so will most.

$2B+ comfortably. I will be shell shocked if it stops short.

[dvining]

Originally Posted by ImBlu_DaBaDee

I was thinking that if the movie is amazing they need to drop reviews early to increase the hype but apparently the embargo for social media is 12/6 and the one for full reviews is 12/13, just 2 days before the first shows.

It's not screening for critics until 12/12.

Just noting it.

[ThulsaMike88]

Depends on how good the movie is. Cameron said in a recent interview that this one is all about the characters, rather than the awe and spectacle...hoping for the best. Also, if there's one thing Cameron is good at, it's subverting expectations with a sequel. My guess is the trailers are setting us up to think it's like the first film, but there's going to be some massive twist/game changer during the film. I think this could be why it isn't screening for critics until late. Mitigate the damage spoilers can do to your box office take.

It'll also depend on how well it does in China, and what kind of legs it has in Europe and the U.S. Top Gun Maverick had insane legs and just kept going, similar to what Avatar did in 2009, it felt like it just kept going and going. Supposedly it needs around $2 billion for it to break even. I think it it'll stop short of taking in what the 1st film made, and end up around $2.5 billion...but then again underestimate James Cameron at your own peril. There's also the pandemic factor, and how comfortable people that haven't gone to the theater recently are with seeing it in big crowds...etc. which will factor in.

[prkchopexpress]

the first one had a zero percent drop from week one to week two. pre social media.

for all this talk about people acting like it didn’t have an imprint, it just magically had the same amount of people the second week as the first. where as other stuff routinely drops 50-60% drops.

[Hindustani]

Originally Posted by mwynn

Is this the price for the bus to the theater?

just the convenience fee online tickets are costing these days

[Lee A Stewart]

The China BO may be in trouble. There are a number of lockdowns due to COVID. No way that gets fixed in 3 weeks.

China Recovery Set Back by Record Covid Outbreak as Lockdowns Spread

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-r...ad-11669276266

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

Looking at the seating charts, advanced ticket sales look shockingly soft at the moment. 3D, premium format, standard format - doesn't seem to matter. Perhaps the first Avatar movie's cultural impact wasn't that big.

Domestic opening: $140 million
Domestic total: $595 million
Worldwide total: $1.4 billion

The first one was a solid hit financially and a decent film overall. The problem is that it’s been a LOOOOOOOOONG time since that film came out. You’re talking like 13-14 years ago from the original to its first sequel. That’s a galactic sized gap. Some interest has certainly waned. Movie goers have changed since then. They aren’t as wowed by pretty pictures. Dunno, just feel like it’s a damned long time. Why didn’t he get to work on these sooner?

It’ll do a little over a billion which sounds crazy to say that might feel like it underperformed.