Avatar Way of the Water BO Predictions

[kwisatzhaderach]

$2.1 billion

[whfan007]

1.8 billion.

[raptors661]

There are less than 20 tickets sold total for opening weekend at my theater. Endgame was mostly sold out at this point.

[captveg]

I don't see this reaching the $700m Domestic of the first film, as Americans seem the most cynical about movies they've been in decades. However, it'll be interesting to see how this does internationally, where the first film made $2b of its $2.7b.

When I saw Glass Onion today the people behind me were talking about Avatar TWoW before the movie and one lady told her friends it needs to make $2b to break even, so there's already the narrative out there among the general public that no matter how much money it makes it will be a disappointment for Disney.

Like I said, an incredibly cynical public for movies in the US these days.

[Lee A Stewart]

I don't see this movie crossing $1.5 billion total because of the situation in China with the COVID lockdowns. China would be worth at least $500M and that may not happen.

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by captveg

I don't see this reaching the $700m Domestic of the first film, as Americans seem the most cynical about movies they've been in decades. However, it'll be interesting to see how this does internationally, where the first film made $2b of its $2.7b.

When I saw Glass Onion today the people behind me were talking about Avatar TWoW before the movie and one lady told her friends it needs to make $2b to break even, so there's already the narrative out there among the general public that no matter how much money it makes it will be a disappointment for Disney.

Like I said, an incredibly cynical public for movies in the US these days.

Agreed. I have to say, there is a chance that this just doesnt work out the way Jim is hoping. I mean, if anyone can pull it off its probably him but its hard not to see the potential issues. Lets review:

1) 13 years is an eternity for "waiting" on sequels to come out, especially in this day and age of binging and instant gratification. Some people have certainly moved on or arent making Avatar a priority in 2022/2023. The original isnt old enough to stoke some nostalgic fire like The recent Top Gun film did. Its too "new" for that but is also sort of "old" to be cranking out sequels now. Its just strange timing.

2) The first one was as much of a perfect timing thing as it was anything else. It all came together and just worked. A lot has changed since then. Pretty visuals arent enough anymore. The plot was never deep or thought provoking, it was very much cookie-cutter although well executed.

3) People are struggling right now financially. Entertainment dollars have a lot of options now, moreso than in 2009. And for some folks gas in their car or food on the table trumps going to see a sequel to a film franchise that they may or may not quite remember much about.

4) Aging directors dont have the best track record. Like I said, James is maybe the one that can pull it off but as we painfully watched Ridley Scott embarrass himself over the last several years & destroy the Aliens franchise this concern can be applied here. I dont believe it will happen but its a fair point to ponder.

Of course, we'll find out .

[Zivouhr]

About 1.5 billion sounds reasonable. It already has an established fanbase, and movies like Spider-Man No Way Home proves movies can make a lot of money in theaters again, and that wasn't even a very good Marvel movie IMO.

If he can make 3 billion, that would be good for his hopes to bring out 5 movies instead of only 3 more according to his statements about the box office.

When he said it needs 2 billion to break even cause he spent too much on it, that's not a great statement to make since he spent 14 years just to make a sequel where costs have seriously risen in all that time for movie making. That's his fault. The other films don't matter if this one doesn't do well.

Waterworld could be the result, you never know. But the chances are good this will do as well as the first Avatar 1 3D film in 2009/2010.

[lupinskitten]

Cameron could have made the movie half as long for half as much money, and then wouldn't have to make so much at the box office to earn a profit on it. It coming out in the middle of a recession with inflation the highest it's been in 40 years won't help him, neither will the fact that people have fallen out of the habit of going to movies due to streaming and the pandemic.

I think it will be BIG, but maybe not repeat-business huge, the way the first one was. People don't have the money to spend like they did fifteen years ago.

[prkchopexpress]

Originally Posted by s2mikey

Agreed. I have to say, there is a chance that this just doesnt work out the way Jim is hoping. I mean, if anyone can pull it off its probably him but its hard not to see the potential issues. Lets review:

1) 13 years is an eternity for "waiting" on sequels to come out, especially in this day and age of binging and instant gratification.

you keep saying the first one came out 13 years ago. but the first top gun came out 36 years ago.

people are so just eager for something to fail. (but if you something like that about marvel movie everyone loses their minds)

why? do people just want to pretend for predicting one of two outcomes? wow. what deep insight you have. that’s totally way more impressive than flipping a coin.

[Kenbar]

I placed me bet on 2 billion+. Maybe I should just call it a hope...like to see 3D TV's make a come back. Huge show of interest might make some manufacture decide to do a run. Or maybe we might at least get a 3D bluray release from Disney.

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by prkchopexpress

you keep saying the first one came out 13 years ago. but the first top gun came out 36 years ago.

people are so just eager for something to fail. (but if you something like that about marvel movie everyone loses their minds)

why? do people just want to pretend for predicting one of two outcomes? wow. what deep insight you have. that’s totally way more impressive than flipping a coin.

Ahh, but I also mentioned that Top Gun was old enough to stoke the nostalgic fires and that’s another factor here. Avatar isn’t old enough for that. It’s lingering in the middle: too new for nostalgia, too old to be fresh in peoples minds.

Why do you assume I want it to fail? Where ya getting that from? I just brought up some valid points that could play a role in it not being the end all in life or the film industry. I own the first film and watch it fairly regularly. I don’t want it to fail, I’d like it to be good actually. But all the reasons I highlighted are legit. Unless you aren’t up on current events.

Coin flip? Nope, just might not make the two billion that Jim is hoping for. Again, not sure where you’re getting all this from.

[kwisatzhaderach]

Originally Posted by raptors661

There are less than 20 tickets sold total for opening weekend at my theater. Endgame was mostly sold out at this point.

Fanboys always pre-book to see Marvel productions as early as possible. Avatar will have a much longer run at the box office.

Curiously Cameron has more followers on Twitter than Feige, wouldn't have expected that.

[ctujackbauer]

I'm not even sure it hits the $150 million tracking at this point, possibly even less than my guess of a $140 million domestic opening weekend.

There are only one or two sold out shows at AMC (Dolby Cinema 3D and IMAX Laser 3D, most likely they are A-List subscribers) and the rest of the standard or 3D shows that have sold nearly no tickets. Harkins has a couple of sold out Cine1 theaters and a 3D HFR sold a quarter of the seats. And Regal... not many tickets in any theater.

I hope the reviews are good.

[Zivouhr]

The opening weekend is critical for Avatar 2 and an indicator of the film's potential. Sort of like when Force Awakens Star Wars was released in 2015. The curiosity to see the new film in a dormant series is a big part of the appeal. After that, it relies on those who really enjoyed it and then want to see the sequels.

I hope the film does well, because the better it does in theaters for all the 3D shows, the more chance there could be of a blu ray 3D set potentially somewhere in the world hopefully. The 3D looks promising.

The film will probably be entertaining, and if anyone can deliver, it would be James Cameron's track record.

He really hasn't made a lot of movies though compared to other top listed directors.

1982 Piranha II: The Spawning Saturn International Pictures / Columbia Pictures
1984 The Terminator Orion Pictures
1986 Aliens 20th Century Fox
1989 The Abyss
1991 Terminator 2: Judgment Day TriStar Pictures
1994 True Lies 20th Century Fox / Universal Pictures
1997 Titanic Paramount Pictures / 20th Century Fox
2009 Avatar 20th Century Fox
2022 Avatar: The Way of Water
2024 Avatar 3
2026 Avatar 4

[-JKR-]

The movie will do well.

[avs commenter]

Does the 3D up charge help this make another $50 million than it would otherwise

[brooks101189]

I think it's gonna do well.

But I think that run-time is gonna be a deal breaker for some.

[captveg]

It helps the film that there is zero real competition until Ant-Man is released two months later.

If people want to see a movie over the holidays with their families this is practically the only choice.

[Hedrox]

Originally Posted by captveg

It helps the film that there is zero real competition until Ant-Man is released two months later.

If people want to see a movie over the holidays with their families this is practically the only choice.

[s2mikey]

Originally Posted by brooks101189

I think it's gonna do well.

But I think that run-time is gonna be a deal breaker for some.

It can be. Its rare that a film can pull it off, like the LOTR movies. But those are the exception, not the norm. Theaters hate 3 hour movies. Its a long time for people to sit still, especially kids/teens.

Thats why I asked about the return of intermissions. I think its a great idea and they can run some ads during it if they wanted.