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Go Back   Blu-ray Forum > Blu-ray > Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology

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Old 05-04-2007, 02:33 PM   #1
Blu-Ray Buckeye Blu-Ray Buckeye is offline
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Dec 2006
Default BD v HD-DVD Predictions

A professor at Kansas University created a quasi-financial security to try to predict what people really believe regarding whether BD sales will outpace HD-DVD sales in 2007. Basically it's similar to an options contract.

If BD outsells HD-DVD in '07 then your contract would be worth $100. If BD does not win then it would be worth $0. The implication is that if this were an even battle the price of the option should be exactly $50. Instead the contract is currently trading at $82 and has been rising since it started trading a few months ago. Pretty much no one is willing to bet on the HD-DVD side.
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Old 05-04-2007, 02:56 PM   #2
Matt X Matt X is offline
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Feb 2007

is this actually trading on the market, or is the professor running a simulation where active securities traders can weigh in on this speculation by fake investing as if it WAS real? either way for those non-financial types out there, volume/directional readings on REAL options trading can give a good picture on what investors think will happen in the market in the future. Options #'s are a good gauge of "consumer sentiment" (consumers in this case being investors) - so if this is an exercise that involves investors/speculators that are studying this BR/HDDVD market from the "outside" (as investors who want to make a bet on the direction of a war to make a profit, not as fanboys), these #'s in favor of BR are VERY interesting.
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Old 05-04-2007, 03:09 PM   #3
Blu-Ray Buckeye Blu-Ray Buckeye is offline
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Dec 2006

I think it is a simulation. If it were real money I think we'd all be throwing $$ at it to lock in that easy $18 return on our $82 investement. Still it is very telling, essentially saying that people will bet $82 for a possible $100 on BD and only $18 for their chance at $100 on HD-DVD.
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