Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by jedicri

I don't have the time now to read everything from page 1 so I'll just go to the heart of my concern.....

There is now the trend of viewing in digital and streaming . I noticed that most brand name 4K player manufacturers have ceased producing such player save Panasonic.

Is it safe to conclude that this is the direction home movies are going?

Will we see the eventual stoppage of hard copy formats of movies and players in favour of digital and streaming devices?

Yes, it's in the direction HV is going. That doesn't mean that DVD, BD or UHD disappears completely. What it means is that they'll be fewer restorations, special packaging, extras, etc. BD has been a hit driven business for some time. Those big hits will still be released on physical for some time to come. In 2019, the top 100 BD titles comprised 50% of all units sold and took 60% of revenue (in North America). While the numbers aren't publicly available, I suspect the top 200 titles took 90% of the business. That's not very deep considering how many titles are released. And think what that means: if brick and mortar still existed to a large extent, one could cover the needs of most customers by stocking only 200 titles.

But that means that the more esoteric and vintage titles that haven't been released yet are unlikely to be released unless the studios license them out to publishers that are expert at addressing niche markets and have a way to make a viable business from that.

The physical business has gotten a lot smaller. In 2009 it was an $11 billion business. In 2019, it was $3.4 billion. In 2018, subscription streaming was already a $13 billion business (I don't have the number yet for 2019, but it was likely substantially larger). That's larger than North American box-office gross.

This shouldn't be much of a surprise. Consumers have always chosen convenience over quality, and streaming, for all its weaknesses is still far better than DVD and the typical consumer can't tell the difference between streaming and Blu. Being able to watch just about anything for $10-$15 a month is far less costly than collecting physical media unless one only buys a few titles per year. The issue is how many services will consumers be willing to subscribe to and what the churn rates are going to be. If true 5G delivers the speeds promised, the move to streaming is only going to be exacerbated.

The music business is similar. For all the hype about the resurrection of vinyl, in North America streaming now comprises 82% of music industry revenue. For better or worse, the market has spoken.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Yes, it's in the direction HV is going. That doesn't mean that DVD, BD or UHD disappears completely. What it means is that they'll be fewer restorations, special packaging, extras, etc. BD has been a hit driven business for some time. Those big hits will still be released on physical for some time to come. In 2019, the top 100 BD titles comprised 50% of all units sold and took 60% of revenue (in North America). While the numbers aren't publicly available, I suspect the top 200 titles took 90% of the business. That's not very deep considering how many titles are released. And think what that means: if brick and mortar still existed to a large extent, one could cover the needs of most customers by stocking only 200 titles.

But that means that the more esoteric and vintage titles that haven't been released yet are unlikely to be released unless the studios license them out to publishers that are expert at addressing niche markets and have a way to make a viable business from that.

The physical business has gotten a lot smaller. In 2009 it was an $11 billion business. In 2019, it was $3.4 billion. In 2018, subscription streaming was already a $13 billion business (I don't have the number yet for 2019, but it was likely substantially larger). That's larger than North American box-office gross.

This shouldn't be much of a surprise. Consumers have always chosen convenience over quality, and streaming, for all its weaknesses is still far better than DVD and the typical consumer can't tell the difference between streaming and Blu. Being able to watch just about anything for $10-$15 a month is far less costly than collecting physical media unless one only buys a few titles per year. The issue is how many services will consumers be willing to subscribe to and what the churn rates are going to be. If true 5G delivers the speeds promised, the move to streaming is only going to be exacerbated.

The music business is similar. For all the hype about the resurrection of vinyl, in North America streaming now comprises 82% of music industry revenue. For better or worse, the market has spoken.

^ Being able to watch almost anything for $10-$15?

That made me laugh. Cheers

Seriously, you have been repeating this stuff since 2011. I put it to you again. Why do you constantly ignore the flop that is Digital HD? In my opinion, if you fancy yourself as a analyst, surely you should have predicted the very small growth of that format and the fact it too is a hit based business.

You mentioned back in 2011 there would be fewer restorations and special editions yet here we are seeing cult/rare releases flying out every week. Obscure, long forgotten films from the VHS era are well presented for example.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

^ Being able to watch almost anything for $10-$15?

That poster has his head in his dark spot as well. I have spun 20 new titles (Netflix disc rentals) since the first of the year and none are available via SVOD or AVOD. He also seems incapable of grasping the fact that SVOD and AVOD is just pay TV and has nothing to do with ownership. In the South he would be known as a Bone Head.

[Vilya]

Yes, Zoet's post contains so many revelations like this exceptional insight of his: the top selling titles sell the most.

He also keeps saying that he has not seen the numbers for 2019 when they have been posted many times in multiple threads for months now. They were just posted again in this thread two pages back. He also never offers citations for the statistics that he mentions; we are just supposed to believe whatever his greatness tells us.

I'm not saying that his numbers are entirely wrong; only that he is too lazy to provide proof. His remark that the top 200 titles bring in 90% of disc revenue is just something that he made up himself. He says that the numbers are not "publicly available" when what he really means is that he is too lazy to look for them. Without evidence it is merely his guesswork. I don't think he can tell the difference between facts and his own speculation.

He also keeps denying that we are getting more releases on disc each year as the selection of deep catalog titles is constantly growing. I posted a link to that chart also just two pages back.

Of course, the blockbuster hits sell the most copies; this should not even need stating, but catalog titles keep getting released because it is significantly profitable enough for both studios and their licensees to not only offer them, but to offer more of them. We would not be seeing more titles each year if this were not so.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Yes, Zoet's post contains so many revelations like this exceptional insight of his: the top selling titles sell the most.

He also keeps saying that he has not seen the numbers for 2019 when they have been posted many times in multiple threads for months now. They were just posted again in this thread two pages back. He also never offers citations for the statistics that he mentions; we are just supposed to believe whatever his greatness tells us.

I'm not saying that his numbers are entirely wrong; only that he is too lazy to provide proof. His remark that the top 200 titles bring in 90% of disc revenue is just something that he made up himself. He says that the numbers are not "publicly available" when what he really means is that he is too lazy to look for them. It might or might not be accurate, but without evidence it is merely his guesswork. I don't think he can tell the difference between facts and his own speculation.

He also keeps denying that we are getting more releases on disc each year as the selection of deep catalog titles is constantly growing. I posted a link to that chart also just two pages back.

Of course, the blockbuster hits sell the most copies; this should not even need stating, but catalog titles keep getting released because it is significantly profitable enough for both studios and their licensees to not only offer them, but to offer more of them. We would not be seeing more titles each year if this were not so.

I have most of the back catalogue titles I desired. True Lies is still one I’m waiting for though.

The guy has been spouting about the format getting less and less releases for 9 years that I know of. Despite this, Like you say, we are getting a more diverse selection of indies, cult, exploitation, adult etc..

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

That poster has his head in his dark spot as well. I have spun 20 new titles (Netflix disc rentals) since the first of the year and none are available via SVOD or AVOD. He also seems incapable of grasping the fact that SVOD and AVOD is just pay TV and has nothing to do with ownership. In the South he would be known as a Bone Head.

He also ignores the fact that Digital HD has flopped.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

I agree, there is no way that is accurate. The top 100 titles brought in ~51% of total revenue in 2019 (~$1.7 Billion out of ~$3.3 Billion total). If you look at how sharply the revenue drops in the top 100 there is no way that the next 100 titles made up another 39% of total revenue.

Top 100 Titles in 2019:
https://www.the-numbers.com/home-mar...dia-sales/2019

2019 Total Revenue:
https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

Indeed, the 100th title on that list, Fury, only brought in $1.415 million. The next 100 titles were all likely in the low single millions; some maybe even lower still in the sub $1 million range.

Even if the next 100 titles each made at or near $1 million, the whole batch would only add another $100 million to the $1.7 billion that the top 100 titles made. That would mean that the top 200 titles made $1.8 billion, and that is merely 54.7% of 2019's total disc revenue.

Zoet's fabrication about the top 200 titles bringing in 90% of disc revenue is entirely ludicrous.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I have most of the back catalogue titles I desired. True Lies is still one I’m waiting for though.

The guy has been spouting about the format getting less and less releases for 9 years that I know of. Despite this, Like you say, we are getting a more diverse selection of indies, cult, exploitation, adult etc..

It is amazing that we can find anything to buy at all, isn't it?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

That isn't quite accurate because the list is sorted by units sold instead of revenue, so the totals could be significantly higher than $1 million each for the next 100 titles. But even if we factor in an extremely high estimate of $500 million total for the next 100 titles the total would still be only ~$2.2 Billion which is only ~67% of the total revenue.

In either case Zoet's estimate of 90% is ridiculous.

You're right, of course, but when the last 13 titles on that list are all under $8.2 million, the progression is obvious. The 101st to 200th best seller are not going to bring in anywhere near to what the first 100 earned. As you said, even adding in another $500 million for them would not even come close to supporting Zoet's wild claim of 90%.

[Vilya]

Just for fun, I sent an email to the people at the numbers.com website to see if they would share the information on the 101st to 200th top selling titles. I like precise numbers when possible.

[Vilya]

I have lots of stuff due to arrive this week; 15 titles coming from all over: Amazon, Amazon.uk, Amazon.fr, and even Walmart.com.

I'm really struggling to find anything to buy, but I'm managing somehow.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I have lots of stuff due to arrive this week; 15 titles coming from all over: Amazon, Amazon.uk, Amazon.fr, and even Walmart.com.

I'm really struggling to find anything to buy, but I'm managing somehow.

Just one for me this week. Ken Loache’s ‘Sorry We Missed You’.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

He also ignores the fact that Digital HD has flopped.

That is because people like him wants to lump together ALL streaming revenue and wave their flags about how great things are for streaming.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Even if you lump all streaming revenue together it's still making less than DVD did in its heyday. It's absurd for people to claim that DVD and Blu-ray are dead but have complete confidence that streaming will always be available and all of their titles are safe.

Nobody knows what the future holds so putting your money into a format that needs constant support to function is crazy.

Like I have always said, it's all Digital and the Master DI is on a Server and can be used to Remaster Digital Disc or Digital Streaming. What is safe when it comes to Disc or Digital, safely backed up and on a Server?

Also when talking about Support for Digital Streaming, shouldn't it also include Support for Disc Players. Oppo hasn't had a FW update in over a year, and Panasonic and Sony are lagging. Then there are rumors that the Pioneer LX500 are not available and sales figures are dropping.

So I think it goes back to accessing your Source Content, and what is best for your capabilities, setup, and Bandwidth.

[sapiendut]

1. Oppo is dead. A dead company won’t have new FW update
2. Sony and Panasonic have their players since 2017, there is no need for new FW.
3. LX500 is not available due to high demands surpassing the supply hence you can’t find them anywhere.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Like I have always said, it's all Digital and the Master DI is on a Server and can be used to Remaster Digital Disc or Digital Streaming. What is safe when it comes to Disc or Digital, safely backed up and on a Server?

Also when talking about Support for Digital Streaming, shouldn't it also include Support for Disc Players. Oppo hasn't had a FW update in over a year, and Panasonic and Sony are lagging. Then there are rumors that the Pioneer LX500 are not available and sales figures are dropping.

So I think it goes back to accessing your Source Content, and what is best for your capabilities, setup, and Bandwidth.

Stop your idiotic ramblings about 4k disc players. You don't even own one and here you are claiming again to know all about their sales data, by manufacturer no less, and also about their firmware needs with no sources cited to back-up a word of it. Rumors are fabricated and spread by ignorant people like yourself.

My Oppo 203 has played every 4k disc presented to it flawlessly, even ones released as recently as last week. Firmware updates occur when they are needed and not on an arbitrary schedule. Oppo continues to provide warranty and repair services for all of their disc players even servicing players as old as the Oppo 83. Other 4K disc player manufacturers also provide firmware updates when they are needed.

My Oppo 93 has not received a firmware update since October 27, 2014 and yet it plays every blu-ray that I load into it just fine from start to finish.

The Pioneer LX 500 and LX 800 are in short supply due to high demand, not because of lagging sales. These are premium players far beyond the price point that someone like you would ever consider paying. The LX 500 retails for $1000-$1100 and the LX 800 retails for $2449. You know nothing about these high-end 4K disc players, or any 4K disc players, so stop pretending that you do.

Finally, your trademark "it's all digital" comment is as stupid as ever. Digital files vary immensely in quality based upon the codec and the amount of compression used among other factors. Where that file is stored is irrelevant; a digital file is not better or worse because of where it is stored.

However, a file that you do not possess that is instead stored upon someone else's server is not a safe storage method because you have zero control over that file. You also have no control over the internet infrastructure that is required to access that file making such access dependent upon a variable and often unreliable internet connection.

A file stored on a disc in your possession gives you complete control over that file. You are not reliant upon servers or the internet infrastructure to access that file. All you need is a disc player and a source of power and you have stable and reliable access to your content.

As for "capability", many of us purchase our content on better "sources" to begin with, namely blu-rays and 4K discs, and we have the hardware necessary to enjoy them more fully in part because we listen with true surround sound systems and not with cheaper and far lesser options. You are not even equipped to get the best that streaming can deliver, yet alone that which a 4K disc offers.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Like I have always said, it's all Digital and the Master DI is on a Server and can be used to Remaster Digital Disc or Digital Streaming. What is safe when it comes to Disc or Digital, safely backed up and on a Server?

Also when talking about Support for Digital Streaming, shouldn't it also include Support for Disc Players. Oppo hasn't had a FW update in over a year, and Panasonic and Sony are lagging. Then there are rumors that the Pioneer LX500 are not available and sales figures are dropping.

So I think it goes back to accessing your Source Content, and what is best for your capabilities, setup, and Bandwidth.

Like we said a million times before, playback of UHD and Blu-ray is not a concern. The new Xbox and PS5 will both play those discs without issue. Firmware updates will never be a issue either. That’s a potential audience of 170-180 million combined. Readily available for the next decade at the very least.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Where that file is stored is irrelevant; a digital file is not better or worse because of where it is stored.

Indeed, paper tape, paper punch cards, audio cassettes, magnetic reel to reel tape, floppy disk, optical disc are all quite capable of storing binary data. Of course the the write/read speed and amount of data vary widely among these devices but that does not mean a spreadsheet stored on paper tape will be worse off than the same spreadsheet stored on a magnetic disc.

[voltz]

I think the only time I'm personally going to feel safe about digital media is when we can download AND KEEP the media on our harddrives at our own discretion. Because of what was just said about whoever controls the streaming services, consumers are not in control of their content.

I'm going to mention DVD vs DIVX again so people can clearly remember what the original intent was and how it's evolved as a streaming platform.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by voltz

I think the only time I'm personally going to feel safe about digital media is when we can download AND KEEP the media on our harddrives at our own discretion.

This has come and gone with Vudu (before Walmart) and Sony (FMP-X1 and FMP-X10). Anything you download is going to have all kinds of DRM.