Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[CinephileKing]

Originally Posted by AgentOrange

That being said, I do believe the market is speaking - and eventually we will have no choice but digital. But that's still a few years off. I think the real first signs of trouble will be when the specialty labels fold up shop (Criterion, Arrow, Shout, etc). The main studios will probably keep new releases coming for a long time after that, but catalog will be a thing of the past.

This whole statement has me laughing on every level. First off, you're not looking at the market very clearly or objectively. Actually, I could easily say you're looking at the market with significant narrow-mindedness. But I also find it funny you say, "That's still a few years off". Dude, it's not even close to a "few years off" for a number of reasons but try decades off potentially here as the market is statistically highly diverse within the public & within the home entertainment industry overall as there is no clear cut indication that digital is the future by any means & there is various reasons for it. I could go much further into this but I'll digress on the matter.

Now, did you just honestly say catalog titles will be a thing of the past? Are you outrageously saying the studios will bury the last 100 years of cinema & their film libraries? LOL! That comment you made is so exceedingly false on every level & I can assure you, 110% you're wrong. I don't think you understand the implications of what you just stated by any means under the circumstances. I'm not going to "bash you" on what you said but you definitely show a great lack of adeptness in the matter.

On a side note, I will agree, that if the speciality labels fold up then that could very well be a sign of things to come BUT speciality labels are actually exceeding very well in the market & actually, have strengthened over the years in popularity.

[CinephileKing]

Originally Posted by The Batman Professor

Didn’t Synapse say that as long as they could sell 1000 units of a title, they would still be in business? If so, that gives me hope, but I think physical has about 6-8 years left.

I do an informal survey of my students each semester, and ask them to raise their hands if they’ve purchased a movie on disc in the last twelve months. This semester, out of 62 students, one raised their hand. These are art students, whom you would think value PQ...

uh, no.

LOL! It's students! That survey holds about as much value as a political poll (which holds almost no value at all). Now, I don't know if you're talking about College students, high school students or what here but here's the thing, College students can't afford to go buy movies to begin with let alone, most don't have the time if there in college. As for high school students, forget it, they barely watch films overall statistically unless they are going out with friends or on dates they may go to their local movie theater on the weekend. But the demographic of 25 & under has declined in movie watching in general over the years but that's another story altogether.

There is a lot I could say here, but yeah, I wouldn't hold much barring (if any) on polling your students for numerous reasons on where physical media is going.

[stonesfan129]

That would be nice to watch a movie on x cloud service and I'm locked out because the studio or rightsholder lost the streaming rights. With a disc, that can't really happen.

[traths]

Yeah, I don't see blu-rays going away anytime soon.

[b_l_u]

Netflix sucks balls as it never has what I want to watch. If I feel like watching a certain movie they never had it. I un-subscribed after a month. Another thing is I live way out in the sticks with bad Internet so I never get good quality picture when streaming.

I like holding my movies in my hands, looking at the artwork and soaking it all in. And the main thing I like about it is I OWN IT. I can watch it when I want, with who I want, and I can share it with others.

I will never go digital which is why I have a giveaway thread where I give away all my codes for those who do like it.

[yellowcakeuf6]

There eventually has to be a drop off to the annual decline in sales where it will level off to just the serious collectors still buying. I wonder what the sales figures will be for that.

[AgentOrange]

Originally Posted by CinephileKing

This whole statement has me laughing on every level. First off, you're not looking at the market very clearly or objectively. Actually, I could easily say you're looking at the market with significant narrow-mindedness. But I also find it funny you say, "That's still a few years off". Dude, it's not even close to a "few years off" for a number of reasons but try decades off potentially here as the market is statistically highly diverse within the public & within the home entertainment industry overall as there is no clear cut indication that digital is the future by any means & there is various reasons for it. I could go much further into this but I'll digress on the matter.

Now, did you just honestly say catalog titles will be a thing of the past? Are you outrageously saying the studios will bury the last 100 years of cinema & their film libraries? LOL! That comment you made is so exceedingly false on every level & I can assure you, 110% you're wrong. I don't think you understand the implications of what you just stated by any means under the circumstances. I'm not going to "bash you" on what you said but you definitely show a great lack of adeptness in the matter.

On a side note, I will agree, that if the speciality labels fold up then that could very well be a sign of things to come BUT speciality labels are actually exceeding very well in the market & actually, have strengthened over the years in popularity.

I think you simply misunderstood what I said, then went off the deep end a bit with your hystrionics.

Catalog titles are almost a thing of the past with the major studio labels right now. We are talking about viability of physical releases here, not "burying their past". The major studios barely bother with their back-catalog right now, other than the occasional small "waves" of releases some of them still do. Do you think it's going to get BETTER as time progresses? When the 3rd party labels fold up shop, that will be the end of catalog releases on physical formats.

As of right now the independent labels are still going strong and there is no reason to think anything changes in the immediate future. But if pondering 5 or 10 years from now, I don't have a crystal ball and neither do you. But I do know the market is shrinking, at some point it will be untenable to produce a product (physical catalog releases) for which there is almost zero demand. Personally I think we are in a golden age right now where deep catalog releases are still viable products, but I'm not sure that will be true 10 years from now.

[AgentOrange]

Originally Posted by b_l_u

Netflix sucks balls as it never has what I want to watch. If I feel like watching a certain movie they never had it. I un-subscribed after a month. Another thing is I live way out in the sticks with bad Internet so I never get good quality picture when streaming.

I like holding my movies in my hands, looking at the artwork and soaking it all in. And the main thing I like about it is I OWN IT. I can watch it when I want, with who I want, and I can share it with others.

I will never go digital which is why I have a giveaway thread where I give away all my codes for those who do like it.

I don't subscribe to Netflix for movies, I figured out many years ago they didn't have much of a selection to satisfy me there. But I still subscribed for the old TV series.

In more recent years, it is their original content that has been king. I actually think their content is far better than HBO at this point. Now HBO has a few of the greatest series of all time in my opinion, but Netflix is giving them a run for their money for sure...and while I'm not quite sure I'd put any Netflix show in the echelon with The Sopranos or The Wire or Game of Thrones... they probably have more "good" series going concurrently. I'd put Narcos and Altered Carbon and Stranger Things right there behind those HBO series.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Cutter_

We'll see. 4K will definitely work in digital. Especially when iTunes upgrades your movies to 4K for free. Physical, we'll see. DVD still outsells Blu-ray, and always will. I would assume 4K will always have the smallest market share between DVD, blu-ray, and 4K blu-ray. So, who knows the future of the format? That's my guess, anyway, but it's just an opinion.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

No high quality format will ever dominate the market. The masses just like cheap and nasty. We know this. UHD will have its niche and like you say, subscription is king. Digital HD is a niche also and a stepping stone to subscription much like Apple MP3 downloads was to subscription music.

People just shop for the best price in Movie watching, that's why DVD has lasted so long. Now that Streaming Quality has caught up to Disc, you have more options. Like not having to wait till the Disc Release Date. I know you guys talk about Subscription taking over, but what does that mean exactly Amazon and Netflix handling everything. Amazon has Subscription, but also your Movie Collection. So I see it differently, Subscription will be in there but your Movie Collection is going nowhere. What did I say, Digital Bit Streaming is the same from a Disc or Server, it's just all in the Bandwidth.

[traths]

Originally Posted by b_l_u

Netflix sucks balls as it never has what I want to watch. If I feel like watching a certain movie they never had it. I un-subscribed after a month. Another thing is I live way out in the sticks with bad Internet so I never get good quality picture when streaming.

I like holding my movies in my hands, looking at the artwork and soaking it all in. And the main thing I like about it is I OWN IT. I can watch it when I want, with who I want, and I can share it with others.

I will never go digital which is why I have a giveaway thread where I give away all my codes for those who do like it.

And most of the content that is on Netflix is only on there for a limited time so if you don't get around to watching it you're screwed.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by CharlesLeeDay

As long as you guys continue to put more money in Netflix and other streaming services pockets, the physical market will continue to dry up. I'm telling you, Netflix will be the end of the physical media if allowed to continue to get bigger and bigger. It's buying up so many licenses and properties that we won't know what the heck happened to our physical media until it's too late.

Considering shows and movies leave and are added on a monthly basis, Netflix will NEVER have ALL the movies. The people who care about that continue to support physical media, and the studios will notice it with sales. Anybody who relies solely on streaming services where licenses expire just doesn't care either way.

[CinephileKing]

Originally Posted by AgentOrange

I think you simply misunderstood what I said, then went off the deep end a bit with your hystrionics.

Catalog titles are almost a thing of the past with the major studio labels right now. We are talking about viability of physical releases here, not "burying their past". The major studios barely bother with their back-catalog right now, other than the occasional small "waves" of releases some of them still do. Do you think it's going to get BETTER as time progresses? When the 3rd party labels fold up shop, that will be the end of catalog releases on physical formats.

As of right now the independent labels are still going strong and there is no reason to think anything changes in the immediate future. But if pondering 5 or 10 years from now, I don't have a crystal ball and neither do you.

Okay, you added more clarity & you specified on the matter here as I see your viewpoint more clearly in what you're saying. Perception when reading can leave much room for interpretation. While I see what you're saying, I disagree to many extents & the future for all formats physical & digital are uncertain. But by all indications, data, & such I don't see much changes in 5 to 10 years either.

The major studios have gone towards more of a movie-on-demand type distribution model for physical releases with their catalog titles (it saves on overhead & it's actually smart business for numerous reasons). Warner Bros for example, created Warner Archives (which I'm sure you know about) which practically makes almost the entire WB film library available through DVD & is growing in Blu-Ray. I actually just read an article month or so ago about how Warner Archives has surpassed expectations with WB management by the public's demand & supply for catalog titles. Warner Archives is actually thriving more then the majority realize because it doesn't get nationally publicized. The movie-on-demand physical release platform could be an interesting outlook but I'll digress on that as that's another subject for another time.

Sony, Universal, Disney, and Fox are regularly releasing catalog titles on DVD & steadily to Blu-Ray (more than you think). They would probably be coming out quicker with catalog titles to Blu-Ray but the major studios have to remaster films which takes up to 6 months or more before they can set them up to go to the Blu-Ray format. It's far more of a time factor than a lack of effort factor in what takes catalog titles to transition to Blu-Ray. Yes, 3rd party labels play a part to a certain extent but it takes two to tango & the major studios are more than ever pushing catalog titles on physical media just in a variety of different exhibitions.

The only major studio that's in question is Paramount & no one seems to no what's going on with them or their strategy for home entertainment platforms overall that includes both physical & digital. While all their catalog titles are available on DVD, the transition to Blu-Ray has been halted in the past few years here. What's weird, they're licensing out catalog titles to 3rd parties & to Warner Bros. even but yet, not licensing out many of their top-tier catalog titles though or releasing them themselves. Warner Bros. grabbed a good portion of their top-tier titles (like "Funny Face", "Sabrina", "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance", & such) but there is still many to go ("Roman Holiday", "Hud", "The Elephant Man", & so forth). The whole thing with Paramount is baffling really & I've been in contact with Kino & Twilight recently on Paramount & they really don't have much insight on what Paramount is doing at this time either. Granted, Viacom & Paramount are going through corporate management transitioning so that could very well be playing a part in what's going on with them.

[Thomas Irwin]

Although blank recordable media at the time, the official production of Betamax tapes didn't end until March of 2016. Talk about the regarded underdog hanging in there. As many people have noted, the market is relatively diverse, and I'm still giving Blu-ray quite a few years.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

People just shop for the best price in Movie watching, that's why DVD has lasted so long. Now that Streaming Quality has caught up to Disc, you have more options. Like not having to wait till the Disc Release Date. I know you guys talk about Subscription taking over, but what does that mean exactly Amazon and Netflix handling everything. Amazon has Subscription, but also your Movie Collection. So I see it differently, Subscription will be in there but your Movie Collection is going nowhere. What did I say, Digital Bit Streaming is the same from a Disc or Server, it's just all in the Bandwidth.

You can repeat this nonsense all you like, but streaming quality has not caught up with disc unless by disc you mean dvd. Streaming services can look quite good, but they do not equal either blu-ray disc or 4K UHD discs.

I am going to postulate that frozen pizza quality has caught up to pizzeria pizza quality even including the finest New York and Chicago restaurants. You may not believe this, so I will just repeat it until it becomes fact.

And again, there is no such thing as streaming from a disc. Reading data off of a disc is plain data transfer while obtaining data from a server requires the internet. Why you can not grasp the dictionary definition of streaming is beyond perplexing. Is it a mental block, a learning disability, or are you just simply being willfully obtuse? Reading an optical disc requires ZERO bandwidth; no internet is involved. Of all the nonsensical word salads you toss repeatedly, this is among the most absurd when you do not even know the definitions of the very words you repeat ad nauseum.

"Amazon has Subscription, but also your Movie Collection." That sentence of your makes no sense at all. It ranks among your greatest hits. I have my movie collection right here in my home, shelf after shelf of neatly alphabetized titles. I do not need Amazon, Netflix, servers, or the internet to watch any title in my library. I use NO bandwidth in doing so; I stream absolutely nothing.

From Collins English Dictionary: streaming definition:

"a method of sequentially transmitting an audio or video presentation, as over the Internet: the data is playable as it is being received, rather than only after it is completely downloaded."

and:

"Streaming is a method of transmitting data from the Internet directly to a user's computer screen without the need to download it."

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us...lish/streaming

[GeoffOliver]

I don't really see streaming as something that replaces owning a show on physical disc. Everyone knows that shows and movies leave Netflix and Hulu all the time. Even my local news runs a story on their website every month that lists everything leaving Netflix. If anything, Netflix (and similar services) replaces cable TV more than DVD/Blu-ray. When I get my own place, I'll probably keep Netflix/Hulu/Amazon Prime instead of paying for cable, but I'll absolutely still collect films on Blu-ray. I can even stream TCM, AMC, Starz, etc through my mom's DirecTV account.

There's a huge market for catalog films on disc in addition to the blockbusters. Horror and anime in particular seem to do well on Blu-ray.

[ravenus]

Physical media as a whole will be there for some time, what may come down is all the 5$ bargain bin "on a lark" offers with which many people fill their collections (and perhaps eventually, landfills). Streaming (assuming you don't have stifling broadband caps) is a great option for first-time watch movies and especially TV series. It beats getting a multi-disc set only to realize you are unlikely to watch something more than once. Especially once a majority of people have internet connections sufficient for a decent HD stream, the need to buy a disc for casual watching will certainly go down. Physical will be more directed towards genre fans, cult movies and recognized classics which people know or at least have a strong feeling that they want to revisit.

I stopped buying music and games on physical media a good while back, dedicating my personal space to the movie collection. For physical media to continue, it will have to provide stuff that cannot be replicated on a digital platform - packaging, booklets, physical-exclusive extras - which can come mainly from the boutique labels.

[Gac-Man]

Well, not a lot of movies or TV shows can be in 4k, not without them being converted, so I imagine a long time. A lot of stuff still looks like crap on Blu-ray. I'm a bit surprised Die Hard is going straight to 4k along with the Blu-ray remaster. Plus 4k isn't the beat all format. Some things still look really great on Blu-ray without needing the 4k.

[darkness2918]

Originally Posted by GeoffOliver

I don't really see streaming as something that replaces owning a show on physical disc. Everyone knows that shows and movies leave Netflix and Hulu all the time. Even my local news runs a story on their website every month that lists everything leaving Netflix. If anything, Netflix (and similar services) replaces cable TV more than DVD/Blu-ray. When I get my own place, I'll probably keep Netflix/Hulu/Amazon Prime instead of paying for cable, but I'll absolutely still collect films on Blu-ray. I can even stream TCM, AMC, Starz, etc through my mom's DirecTV account.

There's a huge market for catalog films on disc in addition to the blockbusters. Horror and anime in particular seem to do well on Blu-ray.

That's what I did & it saves me a lot of money monthly that I can put into my BD buying budget. I love collecting BDs but Netflix, Hulu & Prime Video have saved me more then a few times from making a blind buy I would've regretted. I has happy to have been able to see them first. While I personally am not a fan of digital movies they are useful for people like my dad who has bad legs so getting up to change discs can be a hassle.

That said, I don't think BDs are going anywhere for a long while. I also don't buy 4K unless its a 4K steel book that doesn't have a 2D steel also or if the 2D is sold out & 4K steel is all they have left.

[jmat91]

5 More years I'd say, the premium china market is booming for collectors but still very niche.

[Jexes23]

5 years??? Lol.

Until there is a service that streams all movies at all times for all customers at the same quality or higher than Blu ray, which would require that all people have around 50 meg connections when 4k becomes the norm higher when a higher resolution becomes another norm, Blu Ray media will continue to exist. So expect it to be around for a very very long time. Unless you know of some groundbreaking trillion dollar infrastructure project that I’m not aware of Blu Ray’s aren’t going anywhere.