Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Have been away, what did I miss?

Digital HD’s slow death and Donster and Vilya asking for proof that I have posted about EST not having the legs and being a dead end!

It’s like asking for proof that WW2 happened!

[Vilya]

No one cares about your EST prediction because it has not happened nor have you told us when EST will die. You keep trying to claim credit for predicting the death of EST when EST is not dead. You lack conviction in your predictions as you rarely assign any time frame to them. You deliberately leave them open ended so that you can always claim that they could still happen.

We asked for you to provide proof of when a prediction of yours had come true AND to link to the post where you had originally made said prediction. You then replied saying that you had provided that link. You did no such thing; you blatantly LIED. None of your posts that day contained any links whatsoever. You still haven't provided any link to your original prediction. You post so much garbage here that even you can't keep track of it.

Your predictions are not only asinine, they are utterly worthless. You can't say when any of these events will occur. You predict flat-out stupid shit like we will be forced to watch movies at high speed and that we will be taxed for sitting too much.

You have more things killing movies than there are causes of death for us humans, yet you can't say when. You have TVs dying from causes as varied as millenials using only their phones to extremist vegans taking them away, but you don't know when...again.

You are more a crackpot with each passing day. You plaster this thread with one idiotic prediction after another with no time estimate attached to them and, worse, with no basis in reality. You are just comedy relief at this point.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Well, flyry posted this little story about Vudu in another thread:

From the responses I thought Walmart had released a official statement and I had missed it.

For me, Walmart dumping VUDU is/would be no surprise. Amazon, Dollar General, Family Dollar, etc. are taking a big bite out of their sales. The pundits are saying Amazon will overtake Walmart in revenue by 2022. Last time I checked Walmart had closed 55 stores this year. Who would have thought it!!!

Years ago Walmart was second only to Amazon in packaged media sales and IMHO, is the reason they are spending big dollars on new displays for same.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

No one cares about your EST prediction because it has not happened nor have you told us when EST will die.

If VUDU does go away then most likely we will have a poster explain it by saying he went to a friend's house and the friend had Amazon Video, Google, Fandango, etc. but no VUDU.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

From the responses I thought Walmart had released a official statement and I had missed it.

For me, Walmart dumping VUDU is/would be no surprise. Amazon, Dollar General, Family Dollar, etc. are taking a big bite out of their sales. The pundits are saying Amazon will overtake Walmart in revenue by 2022. Last time I checked Walmart had closed 55 stores this year. Who would have thought it!!!

Years ago Walmart was second only to Amazon in packaged media sales and IMHO, is the reason they are spending big dollars on new displays for same.

Despite what our our incontinent, er, intrepid, prognosticator says to the contrary, digital purchases will continue no matter what becomes of Vudu. Vudu being unloaded for a song, or even closed, should reduce consumer confidence in digital purchases, but sheep being sheep, it probably will not. It is as if their customers have to be burned several times before learning that fire is indeed hot.

I wish my Walmart would improve their displays, but my store is as cheap as they come. The media section at my local store is mostly unchanged in terms of overall size, but the displays are outdated and inconsistent within even the same aisle.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

If VUDU does go away then most likely we will have a poster explain it by saying he went to a friend's house and the friend had Amazon Video, Google, Fandango, etc. but no VUDU.

There's no antidote for a good anecdote.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

From the responses I thought Walmart had released a official statement and I had missed it.

Walmart gave a non-denial response where they basically just said that they are always re-evaluating their business strategy and assessing new opportunities or some similar such blah blah blah.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Let me put this to you.

Netflix introduce the feature permanently and their stats and research show 90% Of their audience is watching at double speed. They fin d that people are flying through series quicker and staying on Netflix longer.

What then?

nothing (or nothing important.)


think about it. What I underlined is good for Netflix (if they find a way to monetise time spent) while what I bolded is bad for them (means they need to purchase more content)

I can see (if it is popular) Netflix saying something " watching at higher rate increases our costs so we will move that option to a higher tear service"

but
"we will remove playback at normal speed and the only option will be 2x" is just insane.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Fast forward on cable boxes and DVD/Blu Ray players here have the ff mode without audio. This system has pitch corrected audio. Big difference.

I don't know if pitch correct is new. But I remember back when the ps3 came out it had audio when played at 1.5x ( once I put a movie on for my nephew and left the room, when I went back I saw it was at 1.5 and put it back to normal play, he still brings up the story every so often how he watched a film by mistake at 1.5)

On the other hand does "pitch corrected' audio matter?peoplewatching Netflix streaming have already decided they don't really care if the PQ is degraded and the audio is subpar. Not to mention that someone watching at greater then 1x is not really looking at enjoying the content but looking to say he saw more content.

[Vilya]

The Digital Entertainment Group's most recent report was thru mid year 2019.

As of mid year, overall disc sales were down 20.96%. EST sales were up 3.3%.

Total purchases from all formats equaled $2.754 billion dollars. EST was 44.13% of that total. EST comprises 44.13% of all purchase revenue.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

For the 2018, the results were these:

Overall disc sales were down 14.56%. EST sales were up 14.43%.

Total purchases from all formats was $6.494 billion. EST was 37.95% of that total.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

In 2017, EST was 31.35% of all purchase revenue.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

In 2016, EST was 26.80% of all purchase revenue.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

EST's share of total purchase revenue is rising each year while purchases overall continue to fall. As of mid year, EST is 44.13% of all purchases placing it nowhere close to death. Total purchases across all formats in 2016 was $7.500 billion; by 2018 that total was just $6.494 billion, which is a drop of 13.41% in just two years. Total purchases across all formats for 2019 are expected to be lower still and with a steeper rate of decline.

In summary:

Thru mid year 2019 EST was 44.13% of all purchase revenue.
For 2018, EST was 37.95 % of all purchase revenue.
For 2017, EST was 31.35% of all purchase revenue.
For 2016, EST was 26.80% of all purchase revenue.

Even the blind can see the where that trend is going. If this trend continues at these rates, EST could overtake physical media sales by the end of 2020 or by early 2021. Purchases of content overall are in decline while EST's share of those remaining purchases is rising.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

The Digital Entertainment Group's most recent report was thru mid year 2019.

Have stated several times that EST should be selling much better than physical based on the sheer number of devices EST can be played on, see chart here. Now add PC's, laptops, tablets, phones, etc. and the number becomes very large.

IMO, Apple will continue to do well with EST, the others will have to settle for the crumbs. Hence Walmart looking to dump VUDU.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Have stated several times that EST should be selling much better than physical based on the sheer number of devices EST can be played on, see chart here. Now add PC's, laptops, tablets, phones, etc. and the number becomes very large.

IMO, Apple will continue to do well with EST, the others will have to settle for the crumbs. Hence Walmart looking to dump VUDU.

Maybe EST would be selling better if purchases in general were not in decline. The fact is that fewer people are buying content in any form regardless of the range of devices that they can view it upon; they are instead subscribing to all you can eat streaming services and sharing their accounts with all of their friends.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

The Digital Entertainment Group's most recent report was thru mid year 2019.

As of mid year, overall disc sales were down 20.96%. EST sales were up 3.3%.

Total purchases from all formats equaled $2.754 billion dollars. EST was 44.13% of that total. EST comprises 44.13% of all purchase revenue.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

For the 2018, the results were these:

Overall disc sales were down 14.56%. EST sales were up 14.43%.

Total purchases from all formats was $6.494 billion. EST was 37.95% of that total.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

In 2017, EST was 31.35% of all purchase revenue.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

In 2016, EST was 26.80% of all purchase revenue.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

EST's share of total purchase revenue is rising each year while purchases overall continue to fall. As of mid year, EST is 44.13% of all purchases placing it nowhere close to death. Total purchases across all formats in 2016 was $7.500 billion; by 2018 that total was just $6.494 billion, which is a drop of 13.41% in just two years. Total purchases across all formats for 2019 are expected to be lower still and with a steeper rate of decline.

In summary:

Thru mid year 2019 EST was 44.13% of all purchase revenue.
For 2018, EST was 37.95 % of all purchase revenue.
For 2017, EST was 31.35% of all purchase revenue.
For 2016, EST was 26.80% of all purchase revenue.

Even the blind can see the where that trend is going. If this trend continues at these rates, EST could overtake physical media sales by the end of 2020 or by early 2021. Purchases of content overall are in decline while EST's share of those remaining purchases is rising.

It’s that shrinking ownership stat that is the concern. That tells us that Digital HD WILL be the same as ITunes music downloads, still here but in s market sense, effectively dead. Subscription will be king, the industry is losing interest in Digital HD. This will only increase as several subscription services hold into exclusives.

Effectively, Digital HD is a dead man walking. It’s certainly not worth Investing in. DVD peaked in 2008, Blu-ray has been around for more than a decade. It’s not Apples to Oranges anywhere.

The takeaway from al, this is that all those easily swayed folks who jumped ship to Digital has diluted both formats and handed the keys to the kingdom back to the distributors. They can giveth them and taketh them away.

Finally, don’t play the innocent Vilya. You were just as guilt as me of overcooking the situation the other night, not just on here either. You got away with it in the Vudu thread by mentioning your Vudu free rental but you knew what you were doing in there.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

nothing (or nothing important.)


think about it. What I underlined is good for Netflix (if they find a way to monetise time spent) while what I bolded is bad for them (means they need to purchase more content)

I can see (if it is popular) Netflix saying something " watching at higher rate increases our costs so we will move that option to a higher tear service"

but
"we will remove playback at normal speed and the only option will be 2x" is just insane.

Seems insane now maybe.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Digital EST is starting to crumble. It appears Walmart may be preparing to sell Vudu. It looks like rentals and EST can’t compete with subscription and Digital HD is flopping big time.

I wonder who would buy it and what their plans would be.

Another Steed prediction coming true?

EST has never been as big a deal as portrayed by fanboys. so I don't know if crumbling is the right word ( that word assumes there was something solid to start with)

As for Vud, it is like a cat with nine lives, so it might be OK, on the other hand it has already lost a few so who knows the count.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

It’s that shrinking ownership stat that is the concern. That tells us that Digital HD WILL be the same as ITunes music downloads, still here but in s market sense, effectively dead. Subscription will be king, the industry is losing interest in Digital HD. This will only increase as several subscription services hold into exclusives.

Effectively, Digital HD is a dead man walking. It’s certainly not worth Investing in. DVD peaked in 2008, Blu-ray has been around for more than a decade. It’s not Apples to Oranges anywhere.

The takeaway from al, this is that all those easily swayed folks who jumped ship to Digital has diluted both formats and handed the keys to the kingdom back to the distributors. They can giveth them and taketh them away.

Finally, don’t play the innocent Vilya. You were just as guilt as me of overcooking the situation the other night, not just on here either. You got away with it in the Vudu thread by mentioning your Vudu free rental but you knew what you were doing in there.

EST will soon have the largest share of purchase revenue; if there is anything remotely resembling a "dead man walking" here it is the concept of purchasing content. Purchases are declining, but more and more of what is still being purchased is being purchased digitally.

As for playing "innocent", I really don't know what you are babbling about. I was having a wee bit of fun at the panicked reactions to the speculation about Vudu while you were already celebrating the death of digital itself and taking credit for having been the only "visionary" to have foreseen an event that has not even happened.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by avs commenter

There’s always go to be a demand for EST just as there is for disc. But with the crowded marketplace I doubt many are that profitable except iTunes

if something is not profitable that is either because the demand is not there, or the costs are too high or both. None of which are good and if the market place is crowded or not is irrelevant.

The problem is that the business models you are comparing are no where near the same. disks have a one time cost that is easily recuperated even in extremely low quantities. EST has high costs that are constantly increasing they need to a constantly increasing user base that is constantly buying more.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Vilya

The very idea of purchasing movies and TV shows on any format, physical or digital, is waning.

I don't think that is true. If that was the case Blockbusters + would have been as big as they were.

People who prefer to buy their content are very much in the minority.

that I agree, I just think it was always the case.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I don't think that is true.

It is true when compared to the height of movie media sales. Physical + EST sales are much less than sales were several years ago.

[Wendell R. Breland]

For those that think the Roku and Nivida streaming boxes are new need to look deeper. Virtually no difference than previous models.

2019 Nvidia Shield TV PRO - 4K Official Android TV Box - The Shocking Truth! - YouTube