Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Lots of people are well aware of how to take advantage of streaming's easy peasey terms.

Millions of people?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Millions of people?

More. Dozens even.

Don't make me resort to anecdotes.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

It's enough to make you "loose" your mind.

I lose my mind when people are loose with grammar!

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

What is it you think that 99% of streaming customers can't figure out how to do? You stated yourself that they know that they can cancel anytime. What exactly is savvy about subscribing when there's a show you want to watch and cancelling when you're done?

That would put the churn rate much higher than the current 18%. Netflix enjoys a much lower rate of 11%

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Netflix is by far the most popular streaming subscription. Therefore most people who use streaming is as their main form of home entertainment will have an ongoing Netflix subscription.

That doesn't at all contradict Vilya's assertion that people will not have more than 2 or 3 subscriptions at a time. Just because many people have an ongoing Netflix subscription doesn't mean that they will have ongoing subscriptions of Disney+, HBO Max, CBS All Access, DC Universe, Hulu, and Peacock as well. The more subscriptions there are to choose from the less likely people will stay with the same one month after month.

And again I point to the stats, not a post based on opinion. If you intend to back it up with a URL, make sure it's from the last few days not weeks/months ago.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

And again I point to the stats, not a post based on opinion. If you intend to back it up with a URL, make sure it's from the last few days not weeks/months ago.

Start with yourself then; where's that URL that shows these churn rates? I am not saying that there aren't any; just don't demand things that you don't provide yourself.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Start with yourself then; where's that URL that shows these churn rates? I am not saying that there aren't any; just don't demand things that you don't provide yourself.

The average over-the-top (OTT) video service churn rate has hovered around 18% for years. Keeping customers around equates to greater lifetime value and, ultimately, building long-term profitability. It's a challenge faced by all Cloud TV providers. Aug 22, 2019

Well, every big player in the OTT space is investing in original contents and user-experience, but what’s favoring Netflix is its low churn rate. Netflix is winning the streaming game with a relatively low churn rate of 11%, which is lower than any other subscription-based service.

https://www.muvi.com/blogs/ott-churn...e-netflix.html

[Vilya]

Here's one from me:

"Just over half (56%) of America already subscribes to between one and three services."

" More than a third (37%) of all Americans say that between $1-$20 is the maximum they’re willing to spend on entertainment subscriptions each month."

Source is from an article dated Oct. 30, 2019:

https://today.yougov.com/topics/medi...icans-willing-

From an Oct. 2, 2019 article:



https://deadline.com/2019/10/half-of...es-1202750361/

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Here's one from me:

"Just over half (56%) of America already subscribes to between one and three services."

" More than a third (37%) of all Americans say that between $1-$20 is the maximum they’re willing to spend on entertainment subscriptions each month."

Source is from an article dated Oct. 30, 2019:

https://today.yougov.com/topics/medi...icans-willing-

From an Oct. 2, 2019 article:



https://deadline.com/2019/10/half-of...es-1202750361/

Right . . . October 2019. But this is March 15, 2020 and we are in the advanced stages of the Coronavirus Pandemic whose first objective is containment.

Care to explain why Disney released Frozen II on Disney+ 3 months early?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Right . . . October 2019. But this is March 15, 2020 and we are in the advanced stages of the Coronavirus Pandemic whose first objective is containment.

Care to explain why Disney released Frozen II on Disney+ 3 months early?

Disney wants to promote their service is why. People might try them out for the free trial period, keep them or drop them afterwards, and they might drop one of their other services to keep Disney+ instead, but none of this means that people are going to increase their overall monthly streaming bill. People switch services back and forth routinely; it isn't hard to do and it isn't some rare tech savvy insider secret, either.

The pandemic might mean that people have more time to watch the services that they already have; it does not automatically follow that they will add more services, and spend more in total for them, at a time when many people might be facing financial strains due to unemployment, lack of paid vacation time or paid sick leave, being sick themselves, or having loved ones who are affected by financial problems or health concerns or both. A pandemic is not the ideal time to increase one's discretionary spending on non-essential services; it is a time to be prudent, enjoy what they have, cut expenses, and see what happens.

Two or three services gives people plenty to watch as it is; there is no compelling need to spend more during uncertain times.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Disney wants to promote their service is why. People might try them out for the free period, keep them or drop them afterwards, and they might drop one of their other services to keep Disney+, but none of this means that people are going to increase their overall monthly streaming bill. People switch services back and forth routinely; it isn't hard to do and it isn't some rare tech savvy insider secret, either.

The pandemic might mean that people have more time to watch the services that they already have; it does not automatically follow that they will add more services, and spend more in total for them, at a time when many people might be facing financial strains due to missing work, being laid off, being sick themselves, or having loved ones who are. A pandemic is the not ideal time to increase one's discretionary spending on non-essential services; it is a time to be prudent, enjoy what they have, cut expenses, and see what happens.

Two or three services gives people plenty to watch as it is; there is no compelling need to spend more during uncertain times.

If what you say is true then the churn rate would be much higher than it is. Hulu is $5.99 with ads, Disney+ is $6.99. You can get both plus ESPN+ for $12.99. No matter what people's financial conditions that is not a lot of extra out-of-pocket monthly money outlay. Less than a single DVD/BD/UHD-BD purchase which only gets you a single movie.

And any stats today do not include upcoming HBO MAX, Peacock or the expanded CBS All Access. They are not yet available.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

If what you say is true then the churn rate would be much higher than it is. Hulu is $5.99 with ads, Disney+ is $6.99. You can get both plus ESPN+ for $12.99. No matter what people's financial conditions that is not a lot of extra out-of-pocket monthly money outlay. Less than a single DVD/BD/UHD-BD purchase which only gets you a single movie.

And any stats today do not include upcoming HBO MAX, Peacock or the expanded CBS All Access. They are not yet available.

Your linked article does not have a date nor does it state from what period that 11% churn rate covers. Was it for the last quarter of 2019? All of last year? Last week? It does not say.

It isn't just the amount of money involved. When people are anxious about their finances, and possibly their health, they do not want, and may not even be able, to spend extra money in any amount for anything unnecessary. If you are broke- and more than a few people will be hurting economically because of this situation, or worse, broke and sick both, that extra $6-$12 per month is better spent on food or medicine. If anything, there might be an increase in account sharing to reduce costs.

Being unemployed is frightening enough; being sick is bad by itself and being both can really be scary. Even if it does not happen to them personally, it could happen to someone that they know and that they care about.

It is not like they will be at a loss for anything to watch. The amount of content available to view on one streaming service is large and on two or three it is vast. It is more than enough to keep people satisfied.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Your linked article does not have a date nor does it state from what period that 11% churn rate covers. Was it for the last quarter of 2019? All of last year? Last week? It does not say.

It isn't just the amount of money involved. When people are anxious about their finances, and possibly their health, they do not want, and may not even be able, to spend extra money in any amount for anything unnecessary. If you are broke- and more than a few people will be hurting economically because of this situation, or worse, broke and sick both, that extra $6-$12 per month is better spent on food or medicine. If anything, there might be an increase in account sharing to reduce costs.

Being unemployed is frightening enough; being sick is bad by itself and being both can really be scary. Even if it does not happen to them personally, it could happen to someone that they know and that they care about.

It is not like they will be at a loss for anything to watch. The amount of content available to view on one streaming service is large and on two or three it is vast. It is more than enough to keep people satisfied.

So based on all your info you should be expecting a major crash in the purchase of physical discs no?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

So based on all your info you should be expecting a major crash in the purchase of physical discs no?

I was wondering how long that would take.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

So based on all your info you should be expecting a major crash in the purchase of physical discs no?

It depends on how bad this situation gets and how panicked people become. Any number of non-essential products and services could see substantial drops in revenue, not just discs. When people are nervous, out of work, sick, or all of the above they spend less on luxuries. This pandemic has the potential to hurt a lot of businesses before it is done.

This Nov. 1, 2019 article had this to say about subscription streaming churn rates:

"The streaming wars are likely to frustrate consumers, said Tom Anderson, a partner at consumer insights firm The Langston Co. A Langston survey of 1,264 U.S. adults found that consumers are frustrated about losing beloved shows and about the rising costs and inconvenience of subscribing to multiple services."

"That could lead to heavy subscriber churn. Based on its projections, Langston expects Netflix to lose 12% to 17% of its U.S. subscriber base after Disney+, HBO Max and Peacock launch. Similarly, Hulu could see a 15% to 19% subscriber haircut.

"People told us 'I know I'm going to be subscribing to Disney+, so I might not do Netflix.' Or, 'I've already seen everything on Netflix,' " Anderson said."

https://www.investors.com/news/techn...-are-too-many/

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I was wondering how long that would take.

Right inline with the topic of this thread: Digital vs Physical & The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Lee A Stewart]

Samuel Goldwyn - "I'm willing to admit that I may not always be right, but I am never wrong."

[gotmule]

I am thinking both of you are right to some degree. Businesses have to figure out how to survive and minimize losses during this unprecedented time. Some might even come out the other side in a better position, but time will tell. When I first read about Disney and Frozen II, I thought it was an attempt to capitalize on the fact that parents are going to try an figure out what to do with kids being home from school, and usual entertainment options not being options.

Vilya is certainly right when he says that a lot of folks will not be able to make ends meet as their place of work closes their doors for a very bumpy ride. Factor into that the fact that a fair amount of people live paycheck to paycheck, and maybe can do without one check by cutting and changing habits...but 3 or 4 will be brutal.

Don’t think for a minute that this thing will be over in two weeks. At this point, there are those who still are not taking it seriously, as they are going about their day in the same manner as they did previously. I am not saying to panic, but people need to make good choices and listen to what we need to do to stop the spreading.

I hope everyone is in a position to weather this storm, and I certainly hope everyone stays healthy.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

No. People who already buy physical media will probably buy more of them since they aren't going out as much. People who stream will probably stream more, but not necessarily spend more if they are primarily streaming with subscriptions.

My spending is unchanged as my income is not threatened, but I won't be spending more than normal. I have a fair amount on hand already should I feel the need to reduce, or to put on hold, my spending for discs. I am playing it by ear for now.

[gotmule]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

My spending isn't changing either. I already buy everything I'm interested in so that can't increase.

My comments were about casual fans of physical media, not fanatics like you and me.

I think people’s spending will be determined by their financial position more so than being a casual fan or fanatic. I know people in both categories who are cutting back because their earnings have already been impacted, and signs are that it may be cut completely.