Blu-ray Disc Association: 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray On The Way

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

4K BD

Thanks for the link, it was most informative.

[Kirsty_Mc]

Originally Posted by mredman

how do you explain record sales on black friday, chrsitmas weeks, record sales for Frozen, Hunger Games ect.. I do not even think physical is down because of streaming nothing can go up forever. Streaming is replacing renting like blockbuster costumers and such. Not those that want to own their favorite movies and tv shows.

I think you've hit the nail on the head.

Personally I think it will be stream it (if you can) to preview the movie, then if you like it, buy the blu-ray for better quality and all the extras you get with it.

It's pretty hard to stream a Steelbook or a Digibook

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by singhcr

Thanks for the link, it was most informative.

For some background, the speaker is not just another marketing talking head thrown up in front of an audience at an industry event, but an inventor, for example - http://patents.justia.com/inventor/robert-aubey-jr

[octagon]

Originally Posted by mredman

how do you explain record sales on black friday, chrsitmas weeks, record sales for Frozen, Hunger Games ect.. I do not even think physical is down because of streaming nothing can go up forever. Streaming is replacing renting like blockbuster costumers and such. Not those that want to own their favorite movies and tv shows.

These so-called records are not physical media records. They're BD records which is just another way of saying they're limited to the last eight years or so.

Frozen and Catching Fire sold a lot of units but they did not outsell things like Shrek 2 or Finding Nemo. They didn't even come close.

Physical media is doing just fine but sales are down compared to the heyday of the DVD era. There's really no way to dispute that.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by octagon

Physical media is doing just fine but sales are down compared to the heyday of the DVD era. There's really no way to dispute that.

Agreed. I think they will more or less level out at some point.

I've said things like this before, but I think that for anyone to expect the physical media to maintain, let alone surpass the DVD heyday is unrealistic. And it still would be even if things like streaming, downloads, etc. weren't even a factor.

The DVD era made collectors out of a lot of people who previously mainly rented during the VHS era (not all, but many). Now that many people already own many of their favorite movies, even if they still collect physical media, those who have event shifted over to Blu-Ray are likely just buying new movies and/or catalog titles that they don't already own on DVD... and maybe upgrading a few favorites here and there (those who haven't upgraded are likely just adding to their DVD collections).

They certainly aren't jumping at the bit to rebuy each and every movie that they already have. And when/if a new 4K format comes along, it will just be even more true, with I think fewer people upgrading a lot of titles. Those who were more willing to rebuy all or most of their DVD collections on Blu-Ray on average will probably be less likely to do it again. And of course the extra splintering that comes from streaming/downloading doesn't help.

But I don't think physical media is really "going anywhere." It just won't be as big of a piece of the pie as it once was.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by mredman

What are you even babbling about Blu Ray isnt stuggling at all. Its thriving.

What are you babbling about? Do you have any facts to back up your contention?

It's doing "okay" - I wouldn't say it's thriving.

In the U.S. , through 7/19, Blu-ray is 2.47% ahead of last year in units and a half percent behind in retail revenue. In physical media, it has only a 21% unit share and a 31.3% revenue share.

Last year at this time, BD was about 15% ahead of the previous year in revenue. In 18 weeks this year so far, BD revenue was behind the same week last year.

So BD isn't really growing and it still should be.

So DVD still has a 79% unit share and a 68.7% revenue share, which is kind of shocking at this late date. But I can understand why. The fact is that in almost any area you can name, most consumers don't really care about quality. Most consumers didn't buy HDTV because it looked better, they bought it because it was large and flat (in fact for years, the majority of consumers were watching SD cable on their HD sets). In spite of the fact that mass market BD players are remarkably inexpensive and the fact that especially back catalog BDs are are also inexpensive (who'd ever think we'd be seeing $7-$8 BDs at this point?), the mass market hasn't seen a reason to move to BD.

The problem for BD is that those who are still using DVD might skip BD completely and move to streaming and downloading, especially younger people who see no reason to own physical media.

[mredman]

^Man that is just pure crap you just posted. You should have the title "Streaming-Guru"

So young people see no reason to own physical movies you say ? wow what a load of crap and then some. So i guess it was all old people that bought Twilight, Frozen, Hunger Games ect . which had BIG sales.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by mredman

^Man that is just pure crap you just posted. You should have the title "Streaming-Guru"

So young people see no reason to own physical movies you say ? wow what a load of crap and then some. So i guess it was all old people that bought Twilight, Frozen, Hunger Games ect . which had BIG sales.

Guess you're one of those people who don't let facts get in the way of their beliefs. I posted sales numbers. The numbers are the numbers. Blu-ray is not growing. It has never dominated physical media. Get over it. An individual successful title (like Frozen) doesn't mean that much - it's what the overall business is doing. And Frozen, which was the big title this year, was obviously purchased by adults for their children to watch at home. That's obviously not what I'm talking about.

This has nothing to do with whether I like Blu-ray or streaming. It so happens I love Blu-ray. I also love vinyl LPs and CDs. My house is filled with physical media of all types. Many people talk about the comeback of vinyl LPs. But the reality is that vinyl LPs are less than 2% of the music market. So I can love something, but also understand whether or not it's commercially successful. The facts are the facts, so grow up and apply some critical analysis to the topic. Saying "that's a load of crap" is not critical analysis.

I never wrote that 100% of young people want to stream. But every bit of research as well as observation clearly demonstrates clear trends away from physical media, with younger people leading that charge. Don't believe me? Start asking people under 30 who don't live with their parents how much physical media they own and whether they're buying more or less than they used to.

In fact, in the music business, not only are they not buying physical media, they're starting to forego paid downloads of tracks in favor of listening to streaming services like Spotify and Pandora. That's one of the reasons why Apple spent $3 billion to buy Beats ($500 million of which was allocated to Beats Music) and get Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre into the fold - to come up with new models to sell music.

[mredman]

my god you really come of as an insufferable know it all and want to be right. Even when not all share your opinion on the matter.

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Agreed. I think they will more or less level out at some point.

I've said things like this before, but I think that for anyone to expect the physical media to maintain, let alone surpass the DVD heyday is unrealistic. And it still would be even if things like streaming, downloads, etc. weren't even a factor.

The DVD era made collectors out of a lot of people who previously mainly rented during the VHS era (not all, but many). Now that many people already own many of their favorite movies, even if they still collect physical media, those who have event shifted over to Blu-Ray are likely just buying new movies and/or catalog titles that they don't already own on DVD... and maybe upgrading a few favorites here and there (those who haven't upgraded are likely just adding to their DVD collections).

They certainly aren't jumping at the bit to rebuy each and every movie that they already have. And when/if a new 4K format comes along, it will just be even more true, with I think fewer people upgrading a lot of titles. Those who were more willing to rebuy all or most of their DVD collections on Blu-Ray on average will probably be less likely to do it again. And of course the extra splintering that comes from streaming/downloading doesn't help.

But I don't think physical media is really "going anywhere." It just won't be as big of a piece of the pie as it once was.

I completely agree.

[Shavian]

It is certainly true that convenience generally trumps quality for most viewers. However, it's also worth considering the value of ownership. MP3s are lower-quality than CDs, but they're also portable and easily transferable. Personally, I want to own the CDs, but then, I'm almost 50, and I like owning books and CDs and other physical items.

Streaming, however, is something different. Rights shift, and a movie that's available for viewing on Netflix or Amazon Prime one month may no longer be available the next. Even 1080p movies take up too much room to be stored easily, which is why people are more likely to stream, or rent, or buy Blu-rays than to pay for digital downloads. With 4K, it will be even worse, with excruciatingly long download times. People want instant gratification, and they want to know that a movie is theirs forever. (How many films on VHS tapes did I buy on that very promise?) Streaming isn't permanent, and doesn't give the satisfaction of ownership.

For an impulse view, or something you're only going to watch once, streaming might be fine. But for a movie that you truly love and want to own, a Blu-ray disk isn't just higher quality, it's more convenient. You can put it in your player and watch it any time you want. (Of course, I also thought that about my VHS cassettes, and I haven't watched one of those in years.)

Barring substantial upgrades to the world's telecommunications infrastructure, and increased flexibility towards copy protection, I don't see near-instant, easily-transferable SuperHD downloads in our immediate future. As humans, we want to own things. So I believe that there is, and perhaps always will be, a future for physical media.

[KRW1]

The goal posts are forever shifting. A few years ago, bluray would be 'obsolete by now', and now it's, 'it wont be as big as DVD was'. It doesn't have to be, and, frankly, closer to 2015 than 2013, I'm surprised it's still as big as it is.

Of course it's not growing, all the big titles (Star Wars, Alien films, Jaws, Raiders, Back to the Future etc) have been out for years. It's now shifted into the deep catalogue territory that many, many people said it would never get into. It's not going to grow on the back of Halloween sets, Herzog sets and Twilight Time releases but I really can't see why it matters as long as the releases come and they show no signs of slowing.

If and when (and I'm pretty sure it's when) we get a 4k disc, it won't be as big as bluray was and the same arguments will go around and around again.

[Geoff D]

I just hope that we do eventually get to have these same arguments about 4K BD.

[benji888578]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

When it comes to anecdotal observations on the reliability of new technology TVs I'm taking the word of someone who's owned a TV repair shop for decades in the largest SE U.S. city over someone not in that field.

Specifically he mentioned all the mad Samsung customers who couldn't get repairs under the warranty time period authorized and this happened right around when this story was written on Consumer Affairs website,




http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news0...amsung_tv.html

I think this is more of a Samsung issue than "all HDTVs". ...I bought one Samsung electronics product years ago and never will again, it started having problems just as soon as the warranty ran out, and then it got worse and quit functioning properly at all.

Originally Posted by DiscoDan

I don't think blu ray in particular is struggling, it's just that physical sales are down overall due to the shift to streaming. 4K could bring enthusiasm back to the disc, though, because I would imagine most won't have internet connections fast enough to stream true 4K content.

My internet is just barely enough to stream HD (1080p), so, yeah, streaming 4K is not going to work for everyone, only those with highest broadband connection, which, I can't even get where I live.

[benji888578]

One thing I can't stand about blu-rays (I'm still a newbie, got my BD player last december), is that, in order to access all the extra stuff, BD-live and such, you have to sign-in, which means you have to set up an account with WB, Sony, and all the others, they each have a separate one, and they don't all work the same, this is so utterly ridiculous, I can't imagine that anyone does it, (I have chosen not to bother, but, now I'm missing out on ? extras). (...I also can't stand ultra-violet for the same reason.).

When the 4K disc is developed, they need to make it so we have access to everything, no sign-in required! They need to realize that this HAS NOT HELPED sell BDs, but, once you take home a BD, go to the trouble of waiting for BD-live features to load only to find out I have to sign-in, which means I have to set-up an account with them, it is actually a deterrent to buying another BD with that feature. Now, I pretty much ignore those kinds of extras when looking at BDs, or, get pissed because that feature is only accessible with an account with Sony or whomever. I have enough things I sign-in for on the internet, I don't want more and more! We need access, not B.S. to get to these special features.

Heck, one BD I just recently got works with a free mobile app! ...only, that app has since been deleted off iTunes with no replacement! This kind of crap needs to stop!

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by DiscoDan

I don't think blu ray in particular is struggling, it's just that physical sales are down overall due to the shift to streaming.

I don't think my favorite restaurant is struggling. It's just that people aren't eating there anymore.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by benji888578

One thing I can't stand about blu-rays (I'm still a newbie, got my BD player last december), is that, in order to access all the extra stuff, BD-live and such, you have to sign-in, which means you have to set up an account with WB, Sony, and all the others, they each have a separate one, and they don't all work the same, this is so utterly ridiculous, I can't imagine that anyone does it, (I have chosen not to bother, but, now I'm missing out on ? extras). (...I also can't stand ultra-violet for the same reason.).

When the 4K disc is developed, they need to make it so we have access to everything, no sign-in required! They need to realize that this HAS NOT HELPED sell BDs, but, once you take home a BD, go to the trouble of waiting for BD-live features to load only to find out I have to sign-in, which means I have to set-up an account with them, it is actually a deterrent to buying another BD with that feature. Now, I pretty much ignore those kinds of extras when looking at BDs, or, get pissed because that feature is only accessible with an account with Sony or whomever. I have enough things I sign-in for on the internet, I don't want more and more! We need access, not B.S. to get to these special features.

Heck, one BD I just recently got works with a free mobile app! ...only, that app has since been deleted off iTunes with no replacement! This kind of crap needs to stop!

I didn't even think that BD-Live was being used by anyone anymore. It was always trash anyway - all you usually got was a few trailers that you could more easily access by other means. After the first few tries, I never used it again.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by benji888578

My internet is just barely enough to stream HD (1080p), so, yeah, streaming 4K is not going to work for everyone, only those with highest broadband connection, which, I can't even get where I live.

You need at least 15 mbps or so because Netflix 4k streaming caps out around 13 mbps. Still that's more than the average, but then again the average person won't have a 4k TV.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by KRW1

The goal posts are forever shifting. A few years ago, bluray would be 'obsolete by now', and now it's, 'it wont be as big as DVD was'. It doesn't have to be, and, frankly, closer to 2015 than 2013, I'm surprised it's still as big as it is.

Of course it's not growing, all the big titles (Star Wars, Alien films, Jaws, Raiders, Back to the Future etc) have been out for years. It's now shifted into the deep catalogue territory that many, many people said it would never get into. It's not going to grow on the back of Halloween sets, Herzog sets and Twilight Time releases but I really can't see why it matters as long as the releases come and they show no signs of slowing.

If and when (and I'm pretty sure it's when) we get a 4k disc, it won't be as big as bluray was and the same arguments will go around and around again.

The problem is that there once was a time when studios (like many record labels) produced products for specialist and niche markets. They found a way to make money doing that.

But today, companies are only happy making the really big mass market bucks. And part of the reason for that is that these are almost all public companies and they're only interested in producing products and services that "increase shareholder value". And the only thing that's going to push that needle is large profits which means large sales.

Look at the theatrical market. A movie that grosses $100 million today is considered a failure. "John Carter" grossed $284 million worldwide, not including ancillary or home media sales and it was considered a major failure for Disney (although it did have a ridiculous $250 million production budget).

Frankly, I'm surprised that items like the Herzog and Twilight Time releases get issued at all. Because if you look at the sales numbers, BD (surprisingly, at least to me) is a hit driven business. Once you get past the 10th best-selling title in any given week, sales are pretty minimal. And I don't think we're seeing (but correct me if you have evidence otherwise) a lot of successful "long-tail" titles - in other words, in spite of what'd you think by looking at the releases or comments on this site, it's not actually a collector's market.

The problem is that if it's not growing (only 2.47% unit growth and negative half percent revenue growth so far this year) and especially since BD still has a surprisingly small physical market share (21% in U.S. units, 31.3% in U.S. retail revenue), the studios, especially the big studios, will lose interest and place their resources elsewhere. That means fewer releases, fewer restorations, vanilla discs with few extras, fewer titles released with special packaging, etc. and probably higher prices. Obviously, all the big hit movies will still get released, but they'll be fewer catalog releases, except for the ones that are quick, cheap and easy to put out. Look at how WB claims they don't have any more money for Looney Tunes restorations.

Either there's not enough of us or BD player owners are not buying enough titles. Obviously, people who participate on this site own plenty of titles (sometimes more titles than they'll ever be able to watch), but the mass market doesn't. I think that this is partly a marketing problem - the studios have not gotten the message out to the general public that BD has the most superior picture and sound quality. And unfortunately, the media uses the terms DVD and BD interchangeably. Even the NY Times refers to all physical media as DVD. That's part of the problem, IMO.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by benji888578

My internet is just barely enough to stream HD (1080p), so, yeah, streaming 4K is not going to work for everyone, only those with highest broadband connection, which, I can't even get where I live.

Originally Posted by bruceames.

You need at least 15 mbps or so because Netflix 4k streaming caps out around 13 mbps. Still that's more than the average, but then again the average person won't have a 4k TV.

There are several problems:
- not enough speed

- speed isn't the advertised speed (my speed is supposed to be 25mbps - I usually get around 7mpbs)

- even when it is, some ISPs will throttle your speed if they catch you using a lot of data at a time when the network is congested. When I stream a film, it always seems to work fine for an hour - then I have problems after that and while I can't prove it, I think I'm being throttled.

- you know what's going to happen: various vendors will provide streaming 4K, but they'll compress the hell out of it. So they'll be able to say it's 4K resolution, but it will look worse than 1080p because of all the artifacts. And idiot consumers will think, "I have twice the resolution of Blu-ray, so I don't need Blu-ray."