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Old 01-05-2017, 10:47 AM   #101
PenguinMaster PenguinMaster is offline
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Originally Posted by veritas View Post
How much digital media was sold not including streaming services like netflix since they are mostly taking money out of Comcast's pocket not physical media.
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Originally Posted by Zu Nim View Post
Not really. VOD has ups and downs but is basically steady since 2010. EST has grown but is dwarfed by subscription. EST was $500M in 2010 and about $1.5B now.

Subscription is eating physical sales and rental revenue (but not VOD so far).
Cable subscriptions are way down. That's the revenue out of Comcast's pocket that veritas is talking about.

Plenty of people have switched from $50-$100 per month for cable to $8-$12 per month for Netflix or Amazon Prime. Overall streaming has been very bad for business.

Last edited by PenguinMaster; 01-05-2017 at 10:53 AM.
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Old 01-06-2017, 01:20 AM   #102
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This is what I am talking about, Copper is Obsolete, Fiber is The Future! If your City or Community doesn't have it, it's time to move to a location that has Fiber.
My local internet provider (which supplies internet for like half the state which is rural) is finally supposed to go Fiber this year. Got something in the mail from them saying they're upgrading.
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:23 AM   #103
master gandhi master gandhi is offline
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My local internet provider (which supplies internet for like half the state which is rural) is finally supposed to go Fiber this year. Got something in the mail from them saying they're upgrading.
Good thing you didn't take alchav21's advice and move already. Heh
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Old 01-06-2017, 07:45 AM   #104
alchav21 alchav21 is offline
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This is what I am talking about, Copper is Obsolete, Fiber is The Future! If your City or Community doesn't have it, it's time to move to a location that has Fiber.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeApartYourHead View Post
My local internet provider (which supplies internet for like half the state which is rural) is finally supposed to go Fiber this year. Got something in the mail from them saying they're upgrading.
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Originally Posted by master gandhi View Post
Good thing you didn't take alchav21's advice and move already. Heh
You're right Master, people have to do their homework and not jump the gun. Talk to your Community or City, and tell them you want Fiber, you'd be surprised they may listen. My last two homes have had Fiber, so there is some truth to what I say.
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Old 01-06-2017, 07:48 AM   #105
Zu Nim Zu Nim is offline
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Originally Posted by PenguinMaster View Post
Cable subscriptions are way down. That's the revenue out of Comcast's pocket that veritas is talking about.

Plenty of people have switched from $50-$100 per month for cable to $8-$12 per month for Netflix or Amazon Prime. Overall streaming has been very bad for business.
Yes, cable subscriptions are down but revenue hasn't crashed. Video revenue is expected to drop a whopping 4.7% by 2026. That's 0.5% annually and about $0.25B/year which doesn't take much revenue out of Comcast's pocket. The bulk of subscription money isn't coming from reduced cable bills.

Also, when you unbundle services your bill doesn't always drop as much as you'd think it would. While it's hard to argue Netflix is good for Kabletown and their video revenue it's not exactly "very bad". As a cord-cutter for years, I recently came back into the fold because it dropped my Internet bill from $125/mo to $60/mo and I get a few channels I didn't before (same Internet speed). Still keeping Netflix.
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Old 01-06-2017, 04:24 PM   #106
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Yes, cable subscriptions are down but revenue hasn't crashed. Video revenue is expected to drop a whopping 4.7% by 2026. That's 0.5% annually and about $0.25B/year which doesn't take much revenue out of Comcast's pocket. The bulk of subscription money isn't coming from reduced cable bills.

Also, when you unbundle services your bill doesn't always drop as much as you'd think it would. While it's hard to argue Netflix is good for Kabletown and their video revenue it's not exactly "very bad". As a cord-cutter for years, I recently came back into the fold because it dropped my Internet bill from $125/mo to $60/mo and I get a few channels I didn't before (same Internet speed). Still keeping Netflix.
Perhaps I should have said cutting cable and sat channel subscriptions instead of Comcast. Here is a article about how they are losing around 800k subscribers a year as a market.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mor...ink-2016-08-11

all these lost subscribers are lost revenue for studios that should be included as a negative if you want to include streams in digital media (since its the substitute nearly everybody goes 2). If they each gave $10 a month for those subscriptions ( I am low balling the hell out of this) that is nearly a billion dollars in lost revenue per year and we all know subscriptions are way higher then $10 a month.
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Old 01-06-2017, 04:43 PM   #107
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Political correctness took over and destroyed sports.
Political correctness took over and destroyed Hollywood.
Political correctness took over and destroyed the news.

What's left? Fake reality TV?
Occam's Razor slices the clueless.

*
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Old 01-06-2017, 10:33 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by veritas View Post
Perhaps I should have said cutting cable and sat channel subscriptions instead of Comcast. Here is a article about how they are losing around 800k subscribers a year as a market.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mor...ink-2016-08-11

all these lost subscribers are lost revenue for studios that should be included as a negative if you want to include streams in digital media (since its the substitute nearly everybody goes 2). If they each gave $10 a month for those subscriptions ( I am low balling the hell out of this) that is nearly a billion dollars in lost revenue per year and we all know subscriptions are way higher then $10 a month.
Yes, the loss in subscribers is well known. But it's not translating into much lost revenue. That's what the article I linked to stated. For the next decade it's projected that cable video subs will drop from 53M today to 45.4M (about 800k/year). But cable video revenue only drops by 4.7% over the decade - that's a loss of only $250M/year on revenues of over $55B. A loss of 0.5%/year is negative but it's not substantial.

OTT subscription revenue is growing faster than $250M/year (by far - about $1B in 2015 and more this year). So my point still stands. Subscription revenue (the vast bulk of it) isn't coming from cable. And that makes complete sense, because Netflix and Amazon Prime have back catalogs but they're really focused on new exclusive content. If you want to see House of Cards you don't cancel cable, you get Netflix. But then you rent fewer new movies and buy fewer discs to keep your budget in check. The numbers bear this out. As to what defines a "studio", both Netflix and Amazon would argue they're studios and justifiably so. They don't press discs but there's no growth there.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:23 AM   #109
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Yes, the loss in subscribers is well known. But it's not translating into much lost revenue. That's what the article I linked to stated. For the next decade it's projected that cable video subs will drop from 53M today to 45.4M (about 800k/year). But cable video revenue only drops by 4.7% over the decade - that's a loss of only $250M/year on revenues of over $55B. A loss of 0.5%/year is negative but it's not substantial.

OTT subscription revenue is growing faster than $250M/year (by far - about $1B in 2015 and more this year). So my point still stands. Subscription revenue (the vast bulk of it) isn't coming from cable. And that makes complete sense, because Netflix and Amazon Prime have back catalogs but they're really focused on new exclusive content. If you want to see House of Cards you don't cancel cable, you get Netflix. But then you rent fewer new movies and buy fewer discs to keep your budget in check. The numbers bear this out. As to what defines a "studio", both Netflix and Amazon would argue they're studios and justifiably so. They don't press discs but there's no growth there.
I don't trust their numbers for future cord cutting. They are proposing 20% higher rates on cable bundles with no increase in cord cutting (I don't think the cable market is that inelastic). Even the current number of cord cutters is closer to 1.6 to 2million a year when you include cheaper substitutes like sling tv meaning they think comcast can raise rates and have less cord cutting. Basically none of the data I have seen for the last 1 to 2 years points to what that article is predicting.
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Old 01-07-2017, 08:20 AM   #110
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I don't trust their numbers for future cord cutting. They are proposing 20% higher rates on cable bundles with no increase in cord cutting (I don't think the cable market is that inelastic). Even the current number of cord cutters is closer to 1.6 to 2million a year when you include cheaper substitutes like sling tv meaning they think comcast can raise rates and have less cord cutting. Basically none of the data I have seen for the last 1 to 2 years points to what that article is predicting.
You said cord cutters were 800k/yr and I supplied a regarded research firm's estimate of cord cutters that's in line with that. I'll stick with the pro's numbers until proven otherwise. Regardless, claiming that there are both more cord cutters and cord "switchers" to SlingTV isn't evidence that they started subscribing to Netflix, let alone accounting for most Netflix revenue growth. Netflix is less like a big back catalog of cable shows and more like an original network and that period is when they've seen most of their growth. (They've lost about half of their catalog over the past few years too and their subscribers don't seem to care at all.)

I've shown that lost cable sub revenue doesn't remotely offset growth in OTT subscription services. VOD revenue has stayed steady. What has dropped significantly? Physical sales. You could argue that subscription revenue is growing at the expense of some other discretionary source but I don't know what it would be. And it wouldn't offer an explanation for the tanking of physical sales.

I think it's more likely that subscription is a substitute for physical with many consumers. Consumers may be choosing to binge first-run TV shows over first-run movies. $10/mo for House of Cards, etc. may be more satisfying than $10 for a single first-run movie on DVD. That fits with the documented shifts in revenue.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:33 PM   #111
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When most people think of streaming they think Netflix. Most people have no clue what places like Vudu are but, as more people use the familiar subscription services, they will eventually discover VOD imo.
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Old 01-09-2017, 11:44 PM   #112
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When most people think of streaming they think Netflix. Most people have no clue what places like Vudu are but, as more people use the familiar subscription services, they will eventually discover VOD imo.
You're right, most people don't have a clue on Streaming Video. I think it will all depend on Access and Bandwidth, and FTTH should be the Standard. Most people that put down Streaming Video say the quality is no where near Blu-ray or UHD Disc. I say with enough Bandwidth the PQ will be seamless. So all we have to do is upgrade our Infrastructure!
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:35 PM   #113
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Hi guys, just thought I would jump in as it's been a while. (Only fair considering I started the thread!)

I see AT&T have just been given the go-ahead to push their zero rated data plans by the FCC (well, trump really isn't it?) Free unlimited streaming but only on mobile. In other words, you can get free mobile streaming service if you pay a wireless bill every month. You guys still trying to tell me people won't just go with the free option on mobile? They are not going to pay for direct tv on their tv through fibre if they can get it free on mobile with just a wireless fee every month. As I have said before, Amazon Netflix, Hulu, BBC, HBO etc.. could end up the same. I have read all the comments, thanks guys. No one seems to be addressing this point directly though. Why pay for fibre on the tv if you can get it far far cheaper by subscribing to AT&T wireless through mobile?
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Old 02-04-2017, 01:24 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by Steedeel View Post
Hi guys, just thought I would jump in as it's been a while. (Only fair considering I started the thread!)

I see AT&T have just been given the go-ahead to push their zero rated data plans by the FCC (well, trump really isn't it?) Free unlimited streaming but only on mobile. In other words, you can get free mobile streaming service if you pay a wireless bill every month. You guys still trying to tell me people won't just go with the free option on mobile? They are not going to pay for direct tv on their tv through fibre if they can get it free on mobile with just a wireless fee every month. As I have said before, Amazon Netflix, Hulu, BBC, HBO etc.. could end up the same. I have read all the comments, thanks guys. No one seems to be addressing this point directly though. Why pay for fibre on the tv if you can get it far far cheaper by subscribing to AT&T wireless through mobile?
People generally don't sit around watching movies and TV on their phones. That's mostly reserved for TVs. People usually just kill time on their phones. Could that change? Sure. But I think we've brought up the point that families typically gather around to watch things on a TV. They don't sit in a room looking at their separate phones, unless they're waiting on something (hence me saying that they're doing it to kill time). That's how I see it, but of course that's not a definitive viewpoint/prediction.
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Old 02-04-2017, 03:42 AM   #115
alchav21 alchav21 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steedeel View Post
Hi guys, just thought I would jump in as it's been a while. (Only fair considering I started the thread!)

I see AT&T have just been given the go-ahead to push their zero rated data plans by the FCC (well, trump really isn't it?) Free unlimited streaming but only on mobile. In other words, you can get free mobile streaming service if you pay a wireless bill every month. You guys still trying to tell me people won't just go with the free option on mobile? They are not going to pay for direct tv on their tv through fibre if they can get it free on mobile with just a wireless fee every month. As I have said before, Amazon Netflix, Hulu, BBC, HBO etc.. could end up the same. I have read all the comments, thanks guys. No one seems to be addressing this point directly though. Why pay for fibre on the tv if you can get it far far cheaper by subscribing to AT&T wireless through mobile?
Hi Steedeel, where have you been hanging around with your Kindergarten Kids with their Mobile Phones? Streaming Video to your Phone is nice, but only for things like YouTube not Movies. Verizon just failed with their Go90 Video which was directed to Mobile Phones. I feel the Streaming Movie Market is to the Home Theater, and FTTH is the Infrastructure that will provide this.
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Old 02-04-2017, 09:14 AM   #116
Steedeel Steedeel is online now
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Originally Posted by alchav21 View Post
Hi Steedeel, where have you been hanging around with your Kindergarten Kids with their Mobile Phones? Streaming Video to your Phone is nice, but only for things like YouTube not Movies. Verizon just failed with their Go90 Video which was directed to Mobile Phones. I feel the Streaming Movie Market is to the Home Theater, and FTTH is the Infrastructure that will provide this.
Why are you fixated on the kids thing? More adults use mobile than anyone else. Look, history has shown that when free or cheap is introduced, people flock to that option. If that means getting free content on phones via unlimited streaming, they will do that. Remember, cable and streaming services using broadband/fibre will NOT be part of the zero rated policy by AT&T.
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