Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by squatting hen

The team/department I work with consists of about 10 people, and none of them purchase physical media. The age range is 28-65. They all, except one, have Netflix. Just about all of them don't have land lines any longer either. People are simply satisfied with streaming.

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

It's examples like this that make many people say that physical media is dead. But it doesn't matter how many people are buying physical versus digital what matters is the amount of money spent. At this point way more people are buying digital but the amount of money spent is close to even. That's why physical media isn't going away anytime soon.

Originally Posted by Cranston37

The problem with that is you could also ask them how many purchase, say, snowmobiles, and while all of them probably will say no that doesn't mean there isn't a healthy profit to be made selling snowmobiles.

Physical media took in $5 billion+ in revenue last year, about the same as the NBA. In this age of everyone streaming, it is still a robust business.

You guys bring up some good valid points. The Studios make Movies because they are profitable, and of course they want to make back their invested money. Most of that is made from the ticket sales when they come out at the Theater. To add to this profit, Physical Media is very important now so I'm sure it will continue in some way but the price will go up. When Digital Streaming came out the price and quality were low. The quality has gone up, and so have the prices. People have a certain Price Point for Physical or Digital, so it will be an individual decision. I feel the same way, Collecting Physical for the Average Movie is really not worth it. So Physical will remain, but the Collector will have to pay a lot more for all the Bells and Whistles.

[squatting hen]

Originally Posted by Cranston37

The problem with that is you could also ask them how many purchase, say, snowmobiles, and while all of them probably will say no that doesn't mean there isn't a healthy profit to be made selling snowmobiles.

Physical media took in $5 billion+ in revenue last year, about the same as the NBA. In this age of everyone streaming, it is still a robust business.

I agree....I was just sharing my experience, and from people I interact with, just about everyone no longer purchases physical movies, they also don't buy digital. They all basically say the same thing....Netflix/Amazon has plenty of movies. Now just about all of them do go to the theater.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

My point is that there are plenty of people buying physical releases at $10-$20, but not many buying digital titles at those prices.

You could be underestimating the market. It's true that discs still generate more revenue, but electronic sell-through is a $2 billion (and growing) market, currently about a third of the disc market (which continues to shrink). It is also true though that subscription services have stronger growth.

If they dropped digital to $5 each they'd get a lot of people switching to digital

There is very little reason why digital movies should be so much cheaper. I think about $15 for new movies (quite common today) is fair. People are spoiled by the grey market prices for digital codes, but that will eventually come to an end.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by alchav21

So Physical will remain, but the Collector will have to pay a lot more for all the Bells and Whistles.

I see no evidence of that. While physical can never compete on price with subscription services, if you want a specific movie that isn't available on Netflix or Amazon Prime physical is still usually the cheapest option.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

So Physical will remain, but the Collector will have to pay a lot more for all the Bells and Whistles.

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

I see no evidence of that. While physical can never compete on price with subscription services, if you want a specific movie that isn't available on Netflix or Amazon Prime physical is still usually the cheapest option.

It all has to do with Supply and Demand, as Physical Supplies go down, Price and Demand go up. Right now Physical might be cheaper because the Supply is high, but going into the future with 8k+ Physical and prices $50+ I'm sure the Supplies will be limited. So the Physical Collectors will be few, but they will have to pay Premium Prices. As opposed to Digital Collectors and Subscription, where the prices will be stable and reasonable for viewing purposes.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by alchav21

It all has to do with Supply and Demand, as Physical Supplies go down, Price and Demand go up. Right now Physical might be cheaper because the Supply is high, but going into the future with 8k+ Physical and prices $50+ I'm sure the Supplies will be limited. So the Physical Collectors will be few, but they will have to pay Premium Prices. As opposed to Digital Collectors and Subscription, where the prices will be stable and reasonable for viewing purposes.

8K and higher are likely to be premium with both physical and digital. Since a very small amount of customers care about such high resolutions the studios will likely charge them as much as they possibly can.

4K is already at premium prices. Have any 4K downloads or streams gone below $15? I've seen various Ultra HD Blu-ray discs for under $10.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by alchav21

It all has to do with Supply and Demand, as Physical Supplies go down, Price and Demand go up. Right now Physical might be cheaper because the Supply is high, but going into the future with 8k+ Physical and prices $50+ I'm sure the Supplies will be limited. So the Physical Collectors will be few, but they will have to pay Premium Prices. As opposed to Digital Collectors and Subscription, where the prices will be stable and reasonable for viewing purposes.

As far as supply and demand goes this is a free market with multiple studios and products that work well as substitutes for each other. Raising products pricing in a market like this isn't easy as other studios with better pricing simply take a larger share of the market assuming people are a little flexible about what movies they watch (basically you can monopolize and and charge what you want for a few of peoples top movies but after that most will substitute for cheap entertainment). Demand for physical media is also highly elastic so increasing prices will cost scores of consumers even if you could get the studios to cartel their pricing.

Studios compete similar to walmart competing with amazon for consumer buisness. because the markets shrinking doesnt mean walmart can just double its prices (amazon would eat them alive and the same is true for the competing studios).

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

4K is already at premium prices. Have any 4K downloads or streams gone below $15? I've seen various Ultra HD Blu-ray discs for under $10.

Certainly. FandangoNow has dozens of titles under $15 (not much I'd like to see though) but many more between $15 and $20. During their 50% off sale on Cyber Monday you could easily have gotten titles for less than $10 and even the latest titles were $15. I'm assuming you're referencing sale prices because the better sale prices I've seen on UHD Blu-rays are in the $13-15 range and those are for catalog titles mostly, not new releases. List prices for EST are still high on average but that will change.

At the end of 2016, there were 16M UHD TVs in the U.S. but only 300,000 UHD Blu-ray players. Obviously that number will continue to grow but 1.9% penetration isn't the number you'd hope to hear.

Originally Posted by Cranston37

I would also wager to bet though that those same 10 people would have given the same answer 15 years ago, substituting renting at Blockbuster for streaming through Netflix. The "norm" was never buying physical media.

        2009  2016
Disc	11.4   5.5
EST      0.5   2.0
Rental   6.2   2.5
VOD      1.6   2.1
Subs       -   6.2
Total   19.7  18.3

I can only go back 8 years not 15. If you want to compare sales (ownership) vs. rental+VOD+subs (non-ownership), in 2009 it was $11.9B ownership to $7.8B. In 2016 it was $7.5B ownership to $10.8B. The dollars, and presumably mentality, have clearly shifted to non-ownership.

Also, someone said that most of the money is made at the theater. That's not true. North American box office revenue was $11.8B vs. $18.3B in U.S. home entertainment spending last year.

[squatting hen]

Originally Posted by Cranston37

I would also wager to bet though that those same 10 people would have given the same answer 15 years ago, substituting renting at Blockbuster for streaming through Netflix. The "norm" was never buying physical media.

Asking the same people if they ever purchased DVD's or blu rays 7 of them said they used to buy a few a month. Two others said they had a few but rarely (3 a year) bought one. One person said they only bought kids dvds. I also asked the size of collection and the largest was about 200 dvd's. This person said they quit buying them when blu ray and hddvd came out because they didn't want to upgrade, and they also realized that over time they didn't watch them often. He said he sold all of his titles except a few, doesn't have cable, but has Netflix and Amazon. He said he goes to the movies about 3-4 times a month and that there is so much out there to watch, purchasing seems pointless. I didn't ask others more details.

Again, none of them buy anything anymore. No discs, no digital. They just use services like Netflix, Amazon and RedBox. Most of them still go to the theater though.

[bubba111]

Originally Posted by squatting hen

Asking the same people if they ever purchased DVD's or blu rays 7 of them said they used to buy a few a month. Two others said they had a few but rarely (3 a year) bought one. One person said they only bought kids dvds. I also asked the size of collection and the largest was about 200 dvd's. This person said they quit buying them when blu ray and hddvd came out because they didn't want to upgrade, and they also realized that over time they didn't watch them often. He said he sold all of his titles except a few, doesn't have cable, but has Netflix and Amazon. He said he goes to the movies about 3-4 times a month and that there is so much out there to watch, purchasing seems pointless. I didn't ask others more details.

Again, none of them buy anything anymore. No discs, no digital. They just use services like Netflix, Amazon and RedBox. Most of them still go to the theater though.

The data referenced by Zu Nim seems to be a more accurate indicator of the state of the market than a small, geographically-concentrated sample size. For example, no one I know goes to movie theaters more than once or twice a year, if that.

[rui no onna]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

Can you recommend one? The problem is that almost all drives are riplocked these days ...

I use an LG WH14NS40 but I bought that back in 2014. I'm unfamiliar with current models.

Originally Posted by Fiffy

Ripping TV shows is one of the most annoying things. It's not only the ripping itself, but afterwards you have to identify and tag the episodes, since the titles on disc are often not in the same order as the episodes. I'm currently going through this process for a 5-season British show that is only available on region B discs and the region-b player I brought over from Europe recently stopped working. If that show had been available on iTunes, it would have been no work at all. I'd be glad to pay for it again just to spare myself this stupid work.

Yeah, TV shows are a pain. Even more so are those that just use chapters to denote episodes instead of having them as a separate title (common with anime and Asian dramas).

[squatting hen]

Originally Posted by bubba111

The data referenced by Zu Nim seems to be a more accurate indicator of the state of the market than a small, geographically-concentrated sample size. For example, no one I know goes to movie theaters more than once or twice a year, if that.

Obviously.

[flyry]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

There is very little reason why digital movies should be so much cheaper. I think about $15 for new movies (quite common today) is fair. People are spoiled by the grey market prices for digital codes, but that will eventually come to an end.

I disagree. Digital is almost always MORE expenive than the physical counterpart. And that makes no sense. They're not paying for pressing a disc or packaging or shipping so they should not be more expensive.

Yes we are paying for convenience but just take a look at vudu for almost everything the digital will be more. Older titles are always $13.99 when you can get a physical (+ ultraviolet as well many times) for half that price. And for newer titles a few weeks after release the physical + ultraviolet is usually $5-6 cheaper than the one on VUDU. etc.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by squatting hen

The team/department I work with consists of about 10 people, and none of them purchase physical media. The age range is 28-65. They all, except one, have Netflix. Just about all of them don't have land lines any longer either. People are simply satisfied with streaming.

Originally Posted by bubba111

The data referenced by Zu Nim seems to be a more accurate indicator of the state of the market than a small, geographically-concentrated sample size. For example, no one I know goes to movie theaters more than once or twice a year, if that.

Originally Posted by squatting hen

Obviously.

No matter how small the group Squatting Hen surveyed it still very accurate on how I see things headed. Physical Media is on the way out, it will just be a Collectors Market. Digital HD will be the viewing favorite, and Collect on a Server to view a few times. Long Term Collection of Physical will only be for a few, and the price and value for Physical will keep increasing.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by flyry

I disagree. Digital is almost always MORE expenive than the physical counterpart. And that makes no sense.

Is that so? More often than not, new movies are $15, while the BD costs $20 or more (you also don't pay sales tax on digital movies). There are constantly sales on iTunes for as low as $4.99. You can easily find sale items using this site's price tracker.

Yes we are paying for convenience but just take a look at vudu for almost everything the digital will be more. Older titles are always $13.99 when you can get a physical (+ ultraviolet as well many times) for half that price. And for newer titles a few weeks after release the physical + ultraviolet is usually $5-6 cheaper than the one on VUDU. etc.

I'm not following Vudu, but on iTunes we have recently seen many new movies drop to $10 just a few weeks after release.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Like I said, a good balance is needed between Wireless and Wired. 5g does seem like the way to go, and in some areas it's the best Technology but the Bandwidth is Fiber. Progressive Cities will see this, and implement FTTP to most Business and Residents, while the rest will get 5g only. Home Cinema is growing, and with 4K+ Video massive amounts of Bandwidth will be needed which Fiber can only achieve.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

But will it be needed? Your assumption is that the current disinterest in big screens and movies from Millenials won't accelerate.

Steedeel I haven't seen your Postings here for awhile, but did you see the latest on Verizon their Go90 Streaming Video is going under. I think they were listening to your Rants on watching Videos on your Phone. Verizon was going after the Millennial Market, and lost big time. Hopefully they will wake up and go after the Home Market.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by flyry

I disagree. Digital is almost always MORE expenive than the physical counterpart. And that makes no sense. They're not paying for pressing a disc or packaging or shipping so they should not be more expensive.

Yes we are paying for convenience but just take a look at vudu for almost everything the digital will be more. Older titles are always $13.99 when you can get a physical (+ ultraviolet as well many times) for half that price. And for newer titles a few weeks after release the physical + ultraviolet is usually $5-6 cheaper than the one on VUDU. etc.

Originally Posted by Fiffy

Is that so? More often than not, new movies are $15, while the BD costs $20 or more (you also don't pay sales tax on digital movies). There are constantly sales on iTunes for as low as $4.99. You can easily find sale items using this site's price tracker.
I'm not following Vudu, but on iTunes we have recently seen many new movies drop to $10 just a few weeks after release.

Digital is cheaper than Disc for new releases, if you shop around. Like you said here on Blu-ray.com and at the UV Stores.

http://ultravioletcinema.com/getuv.php?q=HD

Then for older Movies the prices keep going down.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Digital is cheaper than Disc for new releases, if you shop around. Like you said here on Blu-ray.com and at the UV Stores.

http://ultravioletcinema.com/getuv.php?q=HD

Then for older Movies the prices keep going down.

It looks like that site is mostly codes removed from physical releases. If physical media ever goes away then those codes will as well.

If what sells the most is physical media / digital copy bundles then that is what the studios will continue to release. It doesn't really matter what customers care more about if they're buying bundles. And while I absolutely do not want any titles to be only available digitally I have no problem with bundling physical and digital together: everyone gets what they want.

[flyry]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

Is that so? More often than not, new movies are $15, while the BD costs $20 or more (you also don't pay sales tax on digital movies). There are constantly sales on iTunes for as low as $4.99. You can easily find sale items using this site's price tracker.
I'm not following Vudu, but on iTunes we have recently seen many new movies drop to $10 just a few weeks after release.

I can't speak for iTunes but Vudu definitely charges sales tax.

I realize there are sometimes quick sales but is that any different than say Sully or suicide squad currently being $9.99 on disc?

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by flyry

I realize there are sometimes quick sales but is that any different than say Sully or suicide squad currently being $9.99 on disc?

Not only that but they are $9.99 for a Blu-ray/DVD/UV combo. Or you can pay $9.99 for just iTunes by itself.