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Old 12-18-2007, 10:19 AM   #1
181 181 is offline
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Default Some thoughts

The mass market wasn't ready for HDM in 2007.

Toshiba burned its fuse too quickly by offering cheap players. How long can they last?

Paramount/Dreamworks know that HDM was too early for 2007 and gladly took a paycheck for $150 million to stay red exclusive until end of 2008.

Microsoft will try to throw in their download backend service into new hd dvd titles and it will fail miserably.

Warner knows 2008 is the key year to educate consumers and push HD content. It's almost as if this war was needed to make a giant mess of things so that news could report on Blu-ray, HD DVD and the HDM market. Warner knows the HDM market is still young in 2007. They know most CE's support Blu-ray. They know the numbers.

Warner will stay neutral until May 2008
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Old 12-18-2007, 11:09 AM   #2
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I still think it's too early for mass consumer adoption.
HDTV needs to be set up in many many households worldwide. And still, the mass is buying cheap DVDs or just joined DVD.
It's up to the early adopters and HDTV users to lift HDM out ot the niche, which will happen 2008 for sure. Digital Downloads especially for HDM is no alternative, since the broadband connections are way to slow and the business modell for it is not even really developed. Apple, Microsoft and Sony are still fighting for the definite plattform. HDM will only make it's breakthrough to the mass if the industry can establish ONE Format (that is Blu-Ray) not only for movies, but for ANY other content (games, storage data etc.) on a critical price point for all HD components. And then HDM has yet to fight against SD and DVD....but it will become standard in maybe 5 or 6 years.
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Old 12-18-2007, 11:34 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack View Post
I still think it's too early for mass consumer adoption.
HDTV needs to be set up in many many households worldwide. And still, the mass is buying cheap DVDs or just joined DVD.
It's up to the early adopters and HDTV users to lift HDM out ot the niche, which will happen 2008 for sure. Digital Downloads especially for HDM is no alternative, since the broadband connections are way to slow and the business modell for it is not even really developed. Apple, Microsoft and Sony are still fighting for the definite plattform. HDM will only make it's breakthrough to the mass if the industry can establish ONE Format (that is Blu-Ray) not only for movies, but for ANY other content (games, storage data etc.) on a critical price point for all HD components. And then HDM has yet to fight against SD and DVD....but it will become standard in maybe 5 or 6 years.
I do hope that digital downloads for HD really do not catch on for a long long time. If they do, it will be high def but not great quality. They will do what ever is needed to compress the video and sacrifice audio in order to still be considered hi def but it might be good enough for mass adoption sort of like MP3s are for audio.

Lets hope physical media will have a long life still
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Old 12-18-2007, 12:07 PM   #4
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Movies are not Music, where you can encode it at small bitrates and have 4MB tracks. Audio is a very subjective thing. Audiophiles of course hear any peak and sound but not the common joe. But he will see a difference in SD versus HD. A movie lives and dies by it's quality. And if a system or company can't deliver the quality, it's worthless. Sure the demand for HDM will rise in the coming years but people want hard copies of what they bought and the only way to get HDM of any kind in the near future is through Blu-Ray. Maybe one day DD will be an alternative, but there has to be a system that works like "i-tunes" and then we need the broadband for it to use it...xboxlive is a nice try but given it's limitations in quality, infrastructure and purpose, it's only a shadow of what it really wants to be.
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Old 12-18-2007, 12:10 PM   #5
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High def downloads are a ways away , just imagine if your hard drive crashed boom all that money you spent on films gone.
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Old 12-18-2007, 02:07 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack View Post
I still think it's too early for mass consumer adoption.
HDTV needs to be set up in many many households worldwide. And still, the mass is buying cheap DVDs or just joined DVD.
It's up to the early adopters and HDTV users to lift HDM out ot the niche, which will happen 2008 for sure. Digital Downloads especially for HDM is no alternative, since the broadband connections are way to slow and the business modell for it is not even really developed. Apple, Microsoft and Sony are still fighting for the definite plattform. HDM will only make it's breakthrough to the mass if the industry can establish ONE Format (that is Blu-Ray) not only for movies, but for ANY other content (games, storage data etc.) on a critical price point for all HD components. And then HDM has yet to fight against SD and DVD....but it will become standard in maybe 5 or 6 years.
Exactly... that's problem number 1... HDTV is not in the masses homes yet but they are selling like hotcakes now.
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Old 12-18-2007, 02:17 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdc115 View Post
I do hope that digital downloads for HD really do not catch on for a long long time. If they do, it will be high def but not great quality. They will do what ever is needed to compress the video and sacrifice audio in order to still be considered hi def but it might be good enough for mass adoption sort of like MP3s are for audio.

Lets hope physical media will have a long life still
If the quality of the music videos that are available on the Aussie/NZ PSN store are anything to go by, it will be a long time before it catches on...
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Old 12-18-2007, 02:21 PM   #8
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What is the date CES will be on tv
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Old 12-18-2007, 02:40 PM   #9
mystiksuicide mystiksuicide is offline
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Places like Blockbuster and Best Buy will help determine the winner long before digital download takes a hold. If the mass confusion remains and neither of the two formats catch on and neither will win.

The last thing the above mention companies want is that since they will get out of the financial loop.
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Old 12-18-2007, 03:01 PM   #10
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It seems like Warner might go Blu sooner than later. Why is January too soon? It seems like studios are tired of stagnant dvd sales. They know what needs to be done. One Format to Rule Them All. BLU-RAY.... Yeaahhhh woooooo... The crowd goes wild....Yeahhhhh. Anyways. I think once Warner goes Blu, it will be next x-mas that all HDM is blu.

As for digital downloads. Most people don't back up their hard drives regularly or even know how to. Everyone it seems has gotten a bad virus that has crippled thier computer at least temporarily. Buying something that is only virtual for the same price as something solid just won't make sense.

The only reason mp3's are so huge is because everyone and their mom downloaded them for free for years before the government started cracking down. Now less people do it, but it still happens. If movies go digital, the movie business loses billions. There is no way they will let that happen.

Just my two cents.
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