89th Academy Awards ("Moonlight" wins Best Picture)

[jabbercash]

This is pretty early, but I thought maybe we could get a head-start on discussion for next Academy Awards. I made this thread last year, so I might as well do it again. I think that the #oscarssowhite controversy really made an impact, and we'll definitely see some more actors of color nominated next year. We have some heavyweight directors like Martin Scorsese, Ang Lee, and Woody Allen in the mix, so it should be interesting to see how the race turns out. So, let's get it started!


Best Motion Picture Of The Year
Silence
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Passengers
The Birth Of A Nation
Manchester By The Sea
La La Land
Café Society
Sully

Alternate(s):
Loving
Allied
The Founder
Zootopia
The Jungle Book

Best Acheivement in Directing
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Woody Allen, Café Society
Nate Parker, The Birth Of A Nation
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Morten Tyldum, Passengers

Alternate(s):
Clint Eastwood, Sully
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Tom Hanks, Sully
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Nate Parker, The Birth Of A Nation

Alternate(s):
Michael Fassbender, The Light Between the Oceans

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
Jessica Chastain, The Zookeeper's Wife
Alicia Vikander, The Light Between Oceans

Alternate(s):
Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Liam Neeson, Silence
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Armie Hammer, Birth of a Nation
Michael Shannon, Loving

Alternate(s):
Jared Leto, Suicide Squad
Daniel Bruhl, The Zookeeper's Wife
Steve Carell, Café Society

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea
Laura Dern, The Founder
Aunjanue Ellis, The Birth Of A Nation
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans


Best Writing, Original Screenplay
The Birth of a Nation
La La Land
Café Society
Passengers
Manchester By The Sea

Alternate(s):
The Founder
Loving
Florence Foster Jenkins
Allied
Midnight Special
Zootopia
The Nice Guys
Everybody Wants Some
(Lots of Possibilities!!!)

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Silence
Sully
The Light Between the Oceans
The Zookeeper's Wife

Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
The BFG
Jason Bourne

[Buscemi]

I'm favoring Loving for Best Picture (Jeff Nichols is due and the Academy loves politically charged historical films) while everything else is a wait and see.

I don't see Passengers contending. How many inspirational space movies do we need competing for Oscars? Besides, The Martian ended up being a non-factor with the Academy after its pre-Oscar buzz so I'm getting a feeling the Academy is simply spaced out.

[Tony208]

Best Animated Feature
Zootopia

Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

Passengers could be a wild card. All depends how well it is received and does Box Office wise. Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being this years Gravity or Martian.

[imsounoriginal]

I'd say The Founder is the frontrunner for Best Picture, considering Keaton's leading it

This early in the game, the only award that could possibly be guessed is Best Visual Effects:

Nominees:
The Jungle Book
Captain America: Civil War
Doctor Strange
Rogue One
Assassin's Creed (or X-Men or BFG)

[DanTheMan]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

I'd say The Founder is the frontrunner for Best Picture, considering Keaton's leading it

This. Whatever Keaton touches becomes gold.

[Talleyrand]

Yes, there's a slave movie coming out so we are almost guaranteed we won't get an #oscarssowhite trifecta. Heaven forbid a black person is nominated for a role that could have gone to either gender, but whatever.

Anyways, jabber, that's a very thorough list and I have to say I agree with the likelihood of all of those, by and large.

Originally Posted by jabbercash

Best Actor in a Leading Role[/I]
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Tom Hanks, Sully
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Nate Parker, The Birth Of A Nation

Alternate(s):
Michael Fassbender, The Light Between the Oceans

I'd hope Adam Driver gets the nomination over Andrew Garfield; obviously I haven't seen the film yet by my mind would be blown if Garfield put in a better performance than Garfield. That being said, it's entirely possible to be a double-nominee (which we haven't had in a while, unfortunately, so I'm kind of rooting for that; that being said, that list is full of heavyweights as you note).

Originally Posted by jabbercash

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Liam Neeson, Silence
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Armie Hammer, Birth of a Nation
Michael Shannon, Loving

Shannon is so due for an award!

[imsounoriginal]

No way Armia Hammer or Hugh Grant are getting nominated for those movies. The others in Supporting Actor sound plausible, though.

[Astro Zombie]

Meet the Blacks has a shot at a few awards

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

Originally Posted by Astro Zombie

Meet the Blacks has a shot at a few awards

Yeah, Razzies. Should be a clean sweep.

[jabbercash]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

No way Armia Hammer or Hugh Grant are getting nominated for those movies. The others in Supporting Actor sound plausible, though.

Hugh Grant is getting the best reviews of his career for that performance, some even say he's the standout over Streep. Plus, he's overdue. Armie is a bit more of a wildshot, but most sites predict him and he's getting raves for his performance. It seems like the typical kind of role that usually gets people nominated.

[jabbercash]

Originally Posted by Talleyrand

I'd hope Adam Driver gets the nomination over Andrew Garfield; obviously I haven't seen the film yet by my mind would be blown if Garfield put in a better performance than Garfield. That being said, it's entirely possible to be a double-nominee (which we haven't had in a while, unfortunately, so I'm kind of rooting for that; that being said, that list is full of heavyweights as you note).

From what I've heard, Garfield is the lead. Adam Driver would be supporting. However, there's a strong possibility that Liam could make it into lead, like a Gangs of New York situation. So in that case, Garfield could get shut out and maybe Driver gets the nomination. Who knows.

[jabbercash]

Originally Posted by Jennifer Lawrence Fan

Passengers could be a wild card. All depends how well it is received and does Box Office wise. Wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being this years Gravity or Martian.

That's what I was thinking. The Academy always puts in one big blockbuster. It's from an Academy Award nominated director, starring Jennifer Lawrence, who The Academy obviously loves. I'm sure it'll get in. It's definitely gonna make money.

[jacobsever]

Not even going to speculate on films I haven't seen/aren't released yet. So I'll stick with things I've seen.

I'd LOVE The Witch to be nominated for Best Original Score. Considering it's so unique, created with 100% non-electronic, acoustic instruments to fit the time period, it might (just might) sneak onto the Academy's radar.

I'd love to see John Goodman nominated for his performance in 10 Cloverfield Lane. I could see it in either Lead or Supporting category.

Christopher Plummer for his performance in Remember. He won the Oscar for Supporting Role in 2012's Beginners.

Out of everything I've seen this year, those are the only things I'd say have even a remote chance.

I'd personally love to see Green Room nominated for things, but that's not even a possibility. I'd like to see The Wave nominated for Best Foreign, but I'm not sure if it would be considered a 2015. Not really the Oscar type of film anyway.

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

Originally Posted by jabbercash

That's what I was thinking. The Academy always puts in one big blockbuster. It's from an Academy Award nominated director, starring Jennifer Lawrence, who The Academy obviously loves. I'm sure it'll get in. It's definitely gonna make money.

Yep. You got that right, Plus has Chris Pratt. Coming off two big hits like GOTG and JW. It's only worry is the Star Wars: Rogue One out the week before.

[zorbonaut]

I like the promise of The Birth Of A Nation, La La Land, Manchester By The Sea more than anything else. Hadn't heard of La La Land until today but if Damien Chazelle is directing, count me in.

[imsounoriginal]

Originally Posted by jabbercash

Hugh Grant is getting the best reviews of his career for that performance, some even say he's the standout over Streep. Plus, he's overdue. Armie is a bit more of a wildshot, but most sites predict him and he's getting raves for his performance. It seems like the typical kind of role that usually gets people nominated.

The overdue argument really only counts if he's had an entire career of quality work that's simply been overlooked. The vast majority of Grant's career is nothing more than mediocre rom-coms. I can't imagine many people thinking Grant is really due for a nomination when actors like Richard Gere (who has done more consistent work) have been overlooked.

[Creed]

Originally Posted by jacobsever

Not even going to speculate on films I haven't seen/aren't released yet. So I'll stick with things I've seen.

I'd LOVE The Witch to be nominated for Best Original Score. Considering it's so unique, created with 100% non-electronic, acoustic instruments to fit the time period, it might (just might) sneak onto the Academy's radar.

I'd love to see John Goodman nominated for his performance in 10 Cloverfield Lane. I could see it in either Lead or Supporting category.

Christopher Plummer for his performance in Remember. He won the Oscar for Supporting Role in 2012's Beginners.

Out of everything I've seen this year, those are the only things I'd say have even a remote chance.

I'd personally love to see Green Room nominated for things, but that's not even a possibility. I'd like to see The Wave nominated for Best Foreign, but I'm not sure if it would be considered a 2015. Not really the Oscar type of film anyway.

Agree, The Witch is my favorite film of 2016. Harvey (Caleb) deserves a nomination.

[jabbercash]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

The overdue argument really only counts if he's had an entire career of quality work that's simply been overlooked. The vast majority of Grant's career is nothing more than mediocre rom-coms. I can't imagine many people thinking Grant is really due for a nomination when actors like Richard Gere (who has done more consistent work) have been overlooked.

I think the Academy likes him. They obviously enjoyed Four Weddings and a Funeral, and About a Boy. He made both of those films. And he's in a very oscar-friendly film, where many say he gives his best performance. I think he's a definite possibility.

[Buscemi]

I think Remember is ineligible for this year as it played on DirecTV Cinema in December (back when A24 was planning an Oscar run but canceled plans due to negative reviews).

Florence Foster Jenkins has had mixed reviews and its August opening cripples its awards hopes (unless it became an enormous hit, which is highly unlikely as it will probably split its audience with Cafe Society).