The truth about studio support - percentage breakdowns

[JadedRaverLA]

All too often I hear from HD DVD supporters that studio support doesn't matter. When that argument falls apart, they usually claim that the studios that do release HD DVDs put out pretty much every movie they (and presumably other consumers) want to see.

Well, there's an easy way to see what studios produce films people want to see and that's to just look at their percentage of industry revenues. As it turns out, between the 6 major studios and 2 mini-majors, those studios make up 97.7% of all box office and DVD revenues (for 2006). From that, the four studios who are Blu-ray exclusive made up 58.4% of all revenue, neutral studios made up another 25.9% of all revenue, and HD DVD exclusive studios made up 13.4% of all revenue.

When you add the neutral studios in to both sides' totals, Blu-ray studios come out with 84.3% of all revenue, while HD DVD comes out with 39.3% of all revenue. It's hard to believe that the four Blu-ray exclusive studios, who have a 58.4% marketshare, don't release any films that consumers want to see. If that were so, then who's contributing to those revenues?


Edit: I was able to locate the same data for 2007, up through 6/24/07. This should give people some idea of the fall/winter release breakdown. I updated the chart to show both years' data.

For 2007, Blu-ray exclusive studios have a 51.4% revenue share, with neutral studios having a 33.1% marketshare, and HD DVD exclusive studios have a meager 8.5% markeshare. In terms of disc availability (by adding neutral studios to both formats) 84.5% of the revenue was by Blu-ray supporting studios, and 41.6% of the revenue was by HD DVD supporting studios.

It should be a fun fall.

(Click the image to see the chart.)

[nhaase]

This will bear its teeth come fall, when the summer movies hit BD and HD DVD.

[j_rocca42]

Originally Posted by nhaase

This will bear its teeth come fall, when the summer movies hit BD and HD DVD.

I agree. With Spiderman 3 and Pirates coming on BD soon, it's going to get even worse for HD-DVD.

[WinterWolf]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

When you add the neutral studios in to both sides' totals, Blu-ray studios come out with 84.3% of all revenue, while HD DVD comes out with 39.3% of all revenue.

Your math is a little funny because 84.3% and 39.3% actually add up to 123.6%.

But besides that, I think that you are forgetting about major hits like Casino Royale. There are many big hit movies on Blu-Ray that really helped it to become the force it is today....imo anyway

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by WinterWolf

Your math is a little funny because 84.3% and 39.3% actually add up to 123.6%.

But besides that, I think that you are forgetting about major hits like Casino Royale. There are many big hit movies on Blu-Ray that really helped it to become the force it is today....imo anyway

The math isn't off. The figures you quoted include the neutral studios added to both the Blu-ray and HD DVD lists. Have a look at the chart and it makes more sense.

[nhaase]

Originally Posted by WinterWolf

Your math is a little funny because 84.3% and 39.3% actually add up to 123.6%.

But besides that, I think that you are forgetting about major hits like Casino Royale. There are many big hit movies on Blu-Ray that really helped it to become the force it is today....imo anyway

The percentages weren't adjusted, and they cannot be adjusted, since you can't really split up the format neutral studio revenues. You could do a rough calculation based on releases like The Departed and Happy Feet, but they're not going to be to accurate of reality. Just taking the numbers as they are, it just shows how much of a disparity there is.

Also, Casino Royale was released in 2006, (right before Thanksgiving in the States), so it was included, even though some of its revenue could also have come from 2007, after the new year.

[Deciazulado]

Well you could split the neutral studio percents half and half (assuming half the people buying Paramount and Warner titles will be buying them on BD and the other half on hd dvd) or you could assume a split closer to the current sales ratio like, theorizing 60 or 65% of Warner/Paramount sales going to BD and 40 or 35% going to hd dvd, etc etc

Half and half:

58.4 + 13 = 71.4

13.4 + 13 = 26.4


2 to 1:

58.4 + 17.33 = 75.7

13.4 + 8.7 = 22



The numbers JadedRaverLA gave (84.3 vs 39.3) might be closer to what movies % you could buy on each format

[darinp2]

Universal has had a somewhat rough go of it for a while. And they've been aggressive about releasing their movies on HD DVD already that made over $50 million at the US box office in the last 5 years, so are running fairly low on those. If they had a movie like Transformers I think they could sway the war a fair amount with it, but as things are they just don't seem to have any really big ones. The 3rd Bourne movie should be good, but I doubt it will be up in the league with some of the others as far as people having to own it. They obviously have some really good older titles, but so far the older titles just don't seem to be swaying the war a lot. The rest of the year should be interesting. I doubt Universal will stay in a sort of box office slump forever, but it might be too late to sway the war their way by the time they have a huge hit (and not just a good hit like Knocked Up).

Warner not really being neutral up until now has helped HD DVD a lot, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue after Blu-ray gets their HD PiP implemented.

--Darin

[jorg]

"The three biggest box-office winners of this year were, in order: Sony, Disney, and Fox. Those are the three Blu-ray players. When you consider that those three successful studios will be delivering last year's successful box office in home video this year, then that's an enormous advantage. The fourth is Warner, and they release in both formats, so it doesn't hurt. If you are going to be buying discs, you are going to be buying an awful lot of Blu-ray discs going forward—if you want Pirates of the Caribbean or James Bond or Da Vinci Code or Spider-Man. Universal is the only one with HD DVD. I don't feel terribly intimidated."Sir Howard Stringer, CEO of Sony

puts it in perspective and hd movies will look best with the newer movies

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

The numbers JadedRaverLA gave (84.3 vs 39.3) might be closer to what movies % you could buy on each format

That's what I was going for... to show people who hadn't "bought in" yet, what they'd be able to get on each format. Of course, revenue isn't a measure of how many movies each studio releases, just how popular the movies they release are.

That said, the top 3 movie studios for last year are ALL Blu-ray exclusive. The next two down are format neutral, and the last of the "Big 6" studios is the only one that is HD DVD exclusive.


Also, I updated the first post and the chart with data for YTD 2007 (up through 6/24/07).

[jermwhl]

Now that's what I'm talking about! Some good solid numbers!!! Good post sir! thank you

[Canada]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

All too often I hear from HD DVD supporters that studio support doesn't matter.

That is BS and HD-DVD knows it.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

All too often I hear from HD DVD supporters that studio support doesn't matter.

When they aren't claiming studio X is about to go neutral, or goosing on Microsoft to push the EU to investigate the situation, they don't care.

Gary