Enderle: Will Time Warner’s Move to Blu-ray End HD War?

[Iron Man]

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback224.html

[krinkle]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback224.html

When Enderle starts writing articles contemplating Blu-ray's victory, you know the war is almost over.

[krinkle]

I think we have here the debut of the new HD DVD/Microsoft talking points!!

Originally Posted by rob enderle

Why Downloadable Movies are Better

What makes downloadable movie services better for the studios is they don’t have to stock the movies anyplace but digitally. Keep in mind that much of their vast libraries of films haven’t made it to DVD yet, and only a very small fraction to HD. Motion pictures sitting in archives and not on DVD are simply gathering dust, not revenue, but many have such small potential audiences the cost of producing, stamping and stocking a DVD would make reissuing them on a new format an unprofitable endeavor. However, studios have been digitizing these movies for some time now already, just to preserve them, and the incremental cost to make these reasonably high-quality transfers available isn’t that great.

Collectively, the move to downloadable flicks could make a multi-million dollar difference to the bottom line for many studios, and given the size of Warner Brother’s back catalogue, we are talking the high end of a rather impressive revenue range for them.

This new war is just now beginning. When Microsoft puts all its money behind HD downloading, look out for the spin to begin again in earnest.

[Blu-Generation]

HD download can come in 20 years or so from now for all I care.

But at this point, Blu needs to win!

[NutsAboutPS3]

lol, so his argument is that a move by Warner to HD DVD would end the format war in HD DVD's favour, but a move to Blu-ray would cause a prolonged stalemate, and he says Warner clearly would be better off with a prolonged stalemate so that downloads can take off.

The guy is clearly mad!

[Crackbone]

He's a shill.

Downloads will be coming @ some point, but so will putting a man on Mars. They are full of $hit and they know it.

[jason_grumpy]

She's warming up....

[miokti]

what the FUD is this... He keeps mentioning that DUD has the momentum. based on what? the latest numbers? the latests numbers were from Black Friday and Blu won that weekend (the biggest retail weekend in the US) nearly 3 to 1. How is that momentum on the DUD side? paramount/dreamworks' defection, the release of transformers and the $98 DUD has never won them a week all year. where's this momentum? i don't see any momentum on DUD except momentum going down.

[krinkle]

Originally Posted by miokti

what the FUD is this... He keeps mentioning that DUD has the momentum. based on what? the latest numbers? the latests numbers were from Black Friday and Blu won that weekend (the biggest retail weekend in the US) nearly 3 to 1. How is that momentum on the DUD side? paramount/dreamworks' defection, the release of transformers and the $98 DUD has never won them a week all year. where's this momentum? i don't see any momentum on DUD except momentum going down.

This is how Microsoft will admit defeat.

1) Downplay the importance of HD optical media as a technological relic.

2) Talk up Microsoft's new book, HD downloads.

[krispyjala]

Originally Posted by krinkle

This is how Microsoft will admit defeat.

1) Downplay the importance of HD optical media as a technological relic.

2) Talk up Microsoft's new book, HD downloads.

How will M$ talk up HD downloads when we're still stuck in the stone age (at least in the US) with broadband? Even with the latest cable download speed, that's still 10Mbps? Downloading a 45GB file on 100Mbps will still take 1 hour. It will be faster for me to just drive to a local retail store and buy a blu ray disc for the movie. Until we have widespread fiberoptics or something that can deliver those HD movie downloads as fast as that (or faster) or amazing price points, I don't think the HD format downloading will fly...

Edit: Oops I guess spicynacho wrote a similar response above just before I posted hahaha...but we have similar opinions

[JadedRaverLA]

Wow!

When Enderle is talking about Warner going BD exclusive... you can bet there's more than just a rumor here.

The fact that there is no longer any debate regarding HD DVD vs. Blu-ray is very telling. They're already gearing up for their REAL battle -- Blu-ray vs. digital downloads.

The end is near -- and we're the victors!

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

Wow!

When Enderle is talking about Warner going BD exclusive... you can bet there's more than just a rumor here.

The fact that there is no longer any debate regarding HD DVD vs. Blu-ray is very telling. They're already gearing up for their REAL battle -- Blu-ray vs. digital downloads.

The end is near -- and we're the victors!

Microsoft and HD Toshiba destroy their own HD product. Players and software. Onkyo and other manufactureres are going to bite the dust on DUD players. Good lessons learned for any future company that is thinking about a collaboration with Microsoft in regards to Digital Downloads. Having a butt load of money, power and a delusional sense of world domination does not equate to success. (Hitler anyone?) As with Blu-ray, the people made their choice in their preferred format for HD viewing. Microsoft can not force this venture down people's throat. The fact is, is that 95% of us want hard copies of movies. We do not want our privacy invaded as to who is watching what when. I say let them try and waste billions more on another failed venture in market place dominance. The bottom line is what the people want. Not what Microsoft wants.

[miokti]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Microsoft and HD Toshiba destroy their own HD product. Players and software. Onkyo and other manufactureres are going to bite the dust on DUD players. Good lessons learned for any future company that is thinking about a collaboration with Microsoft in regards to Digital Downloads. Having a butt load of money, power and a delusional sense of world domination does not equate to success. (Hitler anyone?) As with Blu-ray, the people made their choice in their preferred format for HD viewing. Microsoft can not force this venture down people's throat. The fact is, is that 95% of us want hard copies of movies. We do not want our privacy invaded as to who is watching what when. I say let them try and waste billions more on another failed venture in market place dominance. The bottom line is what the people want. Not what Microsoft wants.

Toshiba is hurting itself by lowering that price of it's product, alienating other would be CE's because they can't under-sell Toshiba. Also, they market DUD players actively as SD up-converters. If you tell people that your players can magically play SD's so that they look like HD, why would they bother buying DUD discs? They'll just keep up-converting their SD collection.

[Verbal]

Originally Posted by krinkle

I think we have here the debut of the new HD DVD/Microsoft talking points!!



This new war is just now beginning. When Microsoft puts all its money behind HD downloading, look out for the spin to begin again in earnest.

HD downloads won't matter until there's a significant increase in the North American internet infrastructure. And that's not likely to happen any time soon. That's a slow, painful process. ISPs aren't providing anywhere near the bandwidth to make HD downloads viable.

[What'sHD]

"What makes downloadable movie services better for the studios..."

Yes, that is the kind of thinking that gets consumers to buy high definition movies... If it's "better for the studios". Idiot.

[jdsanko]

Originally Posted by Verbal

HD downloads won't matter until there's a significant increase in the North American internet infrastructure. And that's not likely to happen any time soon. That's a slow, painful process. ISPs aren't providing anywhere near the bandwidth to make HD downloads viable.

The closest thing to downloads are the HD movies I can get On Demand from Comcast. The selection is small and this is really more a Rental model than a download/purchase model.

The movies I have watched look good but not great due to heavy compression I assume. The audio is also limited to DD 5.1. There is no lossless audio most likely due to bandwidth contraints.

[jason_grumpy]

Originally Posted by Verbal

HD downloads won't matter until there's a significant increase in the North American internet infrastructure. And that's not likely to happen any time soon. That's a slow, painful process. ISPs aren't providing anywhere near the bandwidth to make HD downloads viable.

Exactly. A very slow EXPENSIVE progress. Verizon is the only one taking the infrastructure upgrade seriously with their FioS service. Even then, they are years away before completion and even after they are done, they will only service about half of the US.

[marzetta7]

If Enderle's commentary isn't retarded enough, I'm already seeing knuckleheads on other forums stating that a Blu Warner wouldn't end the format war because Paramount and Universal will gladly share the less than 20% marketshare for HD DVD and let the other studios compete for the other 80%.

I then had to explain that a Blu-Warner would inevitably cause the HD DVD marketshare to dwindle to 10% or below, as the Blu-ray user base and disc sales would increase dramatically as time went on. I swear, if short-sighted thinking was a standard, HD DVD proponents would be the de facto standard of this type of thinking.

[cking2729]

Originally Posted by jason_grumpy

Exactly. A very slow EXPENSIVE progress. Verizon is the only one taking the infrastructure upgrade seriously with their FioS service. Even then, they are years away before completion and even after they are done, they will only service about half of the US.

AT&T is also contributing. They have Austin, TX & the majority of its suburbs (i.e. Round Rock, etc) totally upgraded to fiber. I read somewhere they are going to St. Louis, Missouri and L.A. next. The problem is most guys smaller than AT&T and Verizon don't have the resources to even shit out enough fiber, more less provide quality service for it. I work for a network planning & engineering company and I know first hand how much of a rut these businesses are in. Unless you live in a major metropolitan area, you have about an approximate 5-10 year wait ahead if you are wanting to jump out of the stone age............

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by jason_grumpy

Exactly. A very slow EXPENSIVE progress. Verizon is the only one taking the infrastructure upgrade seriously with their FioS service. Even then, they are years away before completion and even after they are done, they will only service about half of the US.

Potentially service..even once it's there...then it's a LONG LONG to converting people with cost effective incentives..