Report: Blu-ray to Pass DVD in 2012

[Blu Titan]

The invevitable is about to happen. Total spending on blu-ray titles are expected to surpass DVD's share in 2012. From Home Media Magazine:

Total consumer spending on entertainment will move past $500 billion worldwide by 2014, and packaged media still should account for roughly one-fifth of that, according to data from Futuresource Consulting.

Packaged media still will continue to see year-over-year declines in the next few years, but even by 2014 the combined entertainment spending on online and mobile content won’t match what DVD and Blu-ray Disc can bring in, the research firm predicts. Subscription TV and broadband service entertainment revenues will continue to lead in overall consumer entertainment spending, with box office revenues a distant third.

Futuresource expects 2012 to be the year DVD revenue finally gives up its majority home entertainment stake to Blu-ray, and by 2014 DVD could be just 26% of home entertainment spending, with Blu-ray at 41%. TV-based VOD (18%) and online video (15%) will account for the rest. Futuresource pegs combined spending in those four categories at close to $25 billion by 2014.

By 2014 Futuresource expects close to 83 million connected Blu-ray players in the United States, compared with 14.4 million in 2010, but Americans likely will have more tablets (95.2 million) and certainly more smartphones (267 million).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...dvd-2012-24174

[Clark Kent]

Not unexpected, but I wonder when Blu-ray will pass DVD for unit sales. Due to the higher pricing of BDs, the gross revenue mark was coming sooner than later.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

The invevitable is about to happen. Total spending on blu-ray titles are expected to surpass DVD's share in 2012. From Home Media Magazine:



http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...dvd-2012-24174

That is way too optimistic.

[Clark Kent]

Originally Posted by blu2

That is way too optimistic.

It is not really about the fantastic growth of Blu-ray, but the horrible attrition rate for DVD. Most of the low-end market has abandoned DVD for free downloads or streaming.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

It is not really about the fantastic growth of Blu-ray, but the horrible attrition rate for DVD. Most of the low-end market has abandoned DVD for free downloads or streaming.

That would be an extremely severe collapse to get to there from the current split. It's already mid-2011 after all.

If studios go combo-only for most releases then perhaps it would be somewhat more likely.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by blu2

That is way too optimistic.

The big Summer releases will be getting a +50% share for Blu-ray when released in Q4. The first week in which Blu-ray sales > DVD's will happen some time late this year.

[ZoetMB]

What are they smoking?

According to Home Media's numbers, year to date (5/23), DVD has done $2.427 billion and BD has done almost $620 million. BD has a 20.3% share of physical media and is 10.3% over last year. DVD is down about 24% vs. 2010 and has a 79.7% share.

So let's say that at this same time next year, DVD declines another 30% and BD doubles its year-over-year growth to 20%. At this time next year, that would bring DVD to $1.699 billion and BD to $743.71 billion year to date, so DVD would still be over twice as large as BD.

In order for BD to exceed DVD, DVD year over year sales would have to decline 60% and BD sales would have to improve by about 57% (in dollars). That would bring DVD to about $971 million and BD to $973 million year-to-date (5/23).

[Steedeel]

Can i put people on the spot and ask for their estimation of bluray obsolescence? Many people seem to be slagging this wonderful format and i am curious as to exact predicitons n this? Also dvd while we are at it?

[ZoetMB]

My opinion is about ten years. More if the economy doesn't improve and the ISPs and phone companies don't improve their network speeds.

[bluflu]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Can i put people on the spot and ask for their estimation of bluray obsolescence? Many people seem to be slagging this wonderful format and i am curious as to exact predicitons n this? Also dvd while we are at it?

Blu-ray will become obsolete when 1080P becomes obsolete. DVD is already obsolete. Bring on Blu-ray XL 4K!

[bluflu]

"Report: Blu-ray to Pass DVD in 2012"

The original prediction when Blu-ray was first introduced was 2013. They must have moved it up a day from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2012.

[Anthony P]

lol, I find it funny that people with nothing more then an ID on a forum think they know better because they don't need real numbers to analyse the situation. But the companies who's job is to do this and have the numbers to work with must be completely off their rockers.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

lol, I find it funny that people with nothing more then an ID on a forum think they know better because they don't need real numbers to analyse the situation. But the companies who's job is to do this and have the numbers to work with must be completely off their rockers.

I complete agree that people who don't use numbers to analyze the market are expressing nothing more than personal opinion that isn't worth much because it's only based on emotion and perhaps a little anecdotal data ("My friends do this....", "I saw someone in the store...", "But I'm spending $XX...").

But many of the trade publications aren't much better. That's because journalism "ain't what it used to be". A lot of these trade journals now employ kids just out of school at almost minimum wage and they have no idea what they're doing. And there's also a built-in bias at trade publications because they don't want to alienate their advertisers. So they hype the format regardless of what the numbers show.

On one of the news items, I wrote a post where I expressed not a single opinion, but only quoted statistical facts on DVD/BR revenue and resulting calculations on year over year growth, etc. And people downrated my post. Why? Probably because they don't like facts that conflict with their emotional fanboy opinions.

As has been said many times, "you can have your opinions, but you can't have your own facts."

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

I complete agree that people who don't use numbers to analyze the market are expressing nothing more than personal opinion that isn't worth much because it's only based on emotion and perhaps a little anecdotal data ("My friends do this....", "I saw someone in the store...", "But I'm spending $XX...").

agree, especially since anecdotal information is coloured by what one wants to see.

But many of the trade publications aren't much better. That's because journalism "ain't what it used to be". A lot of these trade journals now employ kids just out of school at almost minimum wage and they have no idea what they're doing. And there's also a built-in bias at trade publications because they don't want to alienate their advertisers. So they hype the format regardless of what the numbers show.

agree in part, but this is not a publication nor blog we are talking about, this is what futuresource computed. Now if this was Chris Tribbey's opinion or if he is not saying the same as futuresource (let's face it, we see that all the time since fancy headlines draw people), I would agree with you

Also I disagree on trade publications and advertisers. True trade publications have to be more exact then none-trade publications, if they lose credibility they have nothing. So real trade publications (used by the trade) are at the top, then are aficionado publications (used by the connoisseur) then general publications followed by news publications and lastly blogs.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

On one of the news items, I wrote a post where I expressed not a single opinion, but only quoted statistical facts on DVD/BR revenue and resulting calculations on year over year growth, etc. And people downrated my post. Why? Probably because they don't like facts that conflict with their emotional fanboy opinions.

Oh come on. This from the guy who said Blu-Ray was doing poorly because it was 29% down year over year on AVATAR WEEK.

Maybe people downrate your facts because you cherry pick them to show what you want? When Blu-Ray is doing great or has something good happen, not once have you chose that week to post facts. And people remember that kind of negativity. The fact that you do this causes even pure facts to be colored by opinion.