Disney/Fox media is pointless on physical formats

[Falaskan]

Just an opinion piece, but now with the Disney/Fox buyout, Disney’s category of films is going to increase exponentially. I don’t see the purpose of their digital copies at the moment, because I doubt they will transition over into their streaming service. I also don’t have as much of a desire to buy physical formats unless I’m totally in love with the film. If Disney is smart, they won’t let that happen. Then, when their streaming service goes live, they’ll have endless films worth streaming, all in one place. Basically I question the value of every Disney digital copy from here until we found out how this streaming service will affect everything.

Also, if they’re smart, the digital realm could be the loophole for releasing the UOT as well.

[Nailwraps]

So you're a streaming person? That's fine.


But know the big possibility for this deal is an ultimate Star Wars saga box set containing the unaltered versions of the first 6 films on all available formats.

Another strategy Disney and Fox can do, is make a new classic movie channel featuring their films from the 30's-mid-80's.

[lilboyblu]

There's this whole thread too, Disney Deal:What will happen now to FOX titles and their running tv shows on Blu-Ray?, which this one can probably be lumped into.

[CelluloidPal]

If that's the case, ALL media from all the studios and indie companies are pointless on physical formats, according to what you just wrote.
As I said before, everyone cannot afford to stream movies and TV constantly. In order to even stream 4K requires a boatload of bandwidth which is too expensive for the average Joe & Jane, then you add throttling and cap space on top of that. Most can't even afford to stream 480p.
I sure as hell do not want to be pushed into streaming movies or TV, especially since it's an inferior product. I would like to have a choice and not a choice made for me.

[Rory]

Disc media will still be around a decade from now, I bet.

[TXMoviebuff77]

It’s quite obvious the Fox catalog will end up on the Disney streaming service & I have no issue with that & this is coming from a supporter of physical media. Sign of the times & time to look ahead.

[rdodolak]

There's no guarantee the merger will be allowed... only time will tell.

[TripleHBK]

Originally Posted by Falaskan

Just an opinion piece, but now with the Disney/Fox buyout, Disney’s category of films is going to increase exponentially. I don’t see the purpose of their digital copies at the moment, because I doubt they will transition over into their streaming service. I also don’t have as much of a desire to buy physical formats unless I’m totally in love with the film. If Disney is smart, they won’t let that happen. Then, when their streaming service goes live, they’ll have endless films worth streaming, all in one place. Basically I question the value of every Disney digital copy from here until we found out how this streaming service will affect everything.

Also, if they’re smart, the digital realm could be the loophole for releasing the UOT on well.

All of Disney's digital films are already transitioning into a new service. The Fox titles will be added to this same service and nothing will change with what you already "own". Disney will eventually launch a streaming platform of it's own to rival Netflix (If the merger goes through it will also be the majority shareholder for Hulu). Big time franchises will continue to have physical media prepped. The only thing in doubt are the smaller niche films and the licensing agreements that may have been in place with Fox.

I'm not worried about Star Wars, Alien, The X-Men, Deadpool, etc... I'm more concerned about the mostly forgotten films that only appear on cult/fan lists and sites like this and whether they will continue to see physical release/licensing.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Rory

Disc media will still be around a decade from now, I bet.

Around, yes. But there will be far fewer titles, far fewer restorations and far less special packaging. Obviously, the big hit movies, especially the popcorn films will still be released on disc, but smaller films and unreleased back catalog may not be.

Discs are a very hit driven business. In the U.S. in 2016, the top Blu-ray 100 titles constituted 70% of industry Blu-ray revenue and 57% of the units. In a typical week, the 20th best-selling title sells just 3% of the top selling title and only the top 20 titles sell more on Blu-ray than on DVD.

The physical disc business is also in decline overall. In 2009, in the U.S., it was almost $11 billion at retail (Blu-ray + DVD combined). By 2016, it was half that at $5.469 billion. 2017 will come in under $5 billion.

One thing driving the studios to still release physical is that the licensing fees they get back from third party streaming services aren't very high. But in the case of Disney/Fox, they're planning their own streaming services so they get to keep all the revenue (aside from backend participations) so they will have even more of an incentive to push streaming over physical.

On the other hand, if the abandonment of net neutrality isn't reversed, streaming services might get far more expensive as the ISPs attempt to blackmail the services or they'll slow them down.

We also have a younger generation which largely doesn't care about owning physical media or about the extra quality it provides. Streaming is the future whether us old fogies like it or not, although maybe that will change a bit as the younger generation settles down, buys homes, etc. In the music industry, physical media (in the U.S.) is now only 16.3% of the business in revenue. Downloads constitute 19.6% and streaming dominates with 64.1% of the dollars.

[Gobo]

lol

[Nailwraps]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Around, yes. But there will be far fewer titles, far fewer restorations and far less special packaging. Obviously, the big hit movies, especially the popcorn films will still be released on disc, but smaller films and unreleased back catalog may not be.

Discs are a very hit driven business. In the U.S. in 2016, the top Blu-ray 100 titles constituted 70% of industry Blu-ray revenue and 57% of the units. In a typical week, the 20th best-selling title sells just 3% of the top selling title and only the top 20 titles sell more on Blu-ray than on DVD.

The physical disc business is also in decline overall. In 2009, in the U.S., it was almost $11 billion at retail (Blu-ray + DVD combined). By 2016, it was half that at $5.469 billion. 2017 will come in under $5 billion.

One thing driving the studios to still release physical is that the licensing fees they get back from third party streaming services aren't very high. But in the case of Disney/Fox, they're planning their own streaming services so they get to keep all the revenue (aside from backend participations) so they will have even more of an incentive to push streaming over physical.

On the other hand, if the abandonment of net neutrality isn't reversed, streaming services might get far more expensive as the ISPs attempt to blackmail the services or they'll slow them down.

We also have a younger generation which largely doesn't care about owning physical media or about the extra quality it provides. Streaming is the future whether us old fogies like it or not, although maybe that will change a bit as the younger generation settles down, buys homes, etc. In the music industry, physical media (in the U.S.) is now only 16.3% of the business in revenue. Downloads constitute 19.6% and streaming dominates with 64.1% of the dollars.

Valid opinion. But:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/11/...-are-thriving/

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Nailwraps

Valid opinion. But:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/11/...-are-thriving/

For better or worse, businesses are judged on revenue, earnings and return on investment. Especially if the business is publicly held, decisions are made based upon "shareholder value" which basically means getting the stock price to increase.

Some boutique distributors might be doing great stuff, but you cannot state that a business is thriving when it's half the size it was eight years ago. CEO's have to make a decision about where to invest. They don't invest in declining businesses. Would you be happy if your income was half what it was eight years ago?

This is similar to the hype about vinyl. Fans of vinyl (including myself) love their vinyl, but the reality is that (in the U.S.) only 17.2 million LPs were sold in 2016 and only 7.2 million LPs were sold in the first half of 2017.

Since back in the day, there were single LPs that sold over 10 million units each, that's not very good and the worse part is that unless the second half of 2017 has substantially increased sales, 2017 will come in lower than 2016. This shouldn't actually be surprising because who's buying vinyl? -- some hipsters and a small group of old men. And once those old men re-buy remastered versions of the albums they bought 40-50 years ago, they stop buying.

So vinyl is a niche format and video discs are also heading in that direction, in spite of the introduction of UHD. As I frequently say, "the numbers are the numbers". The author of that article is just using semantics to hide the problems in the industry. That's not to say that these boutique distributors aren't doing wonderful things.

Personally, I love my Blu-rays (especially Criterion and special editions/boxed sets) and when I watch (and hear) a film, I want to do it with the maximum quality, but even I will only buy a Blu if it's a film I think I'll watch more than once. For movies I don't really care about, I'll stream them.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

We also have a younger generation which largely doesn't care about owning physical media or about the extra quality it provides.

Suggesting that previous generations cared all that much about owning physical media or the extra quality it provides is a little revisionist, I think.

Our generation (we're more or less contemporaries, I think) didn't collect physical media or care all that much about the extra quality it provided. We accumulated physical media because it was convenient and cheap.

In the early days of home video the masses didn't buy movies or tv shows, they were basically content to record cable or even commercial OTA broadcasts. They didn't start amassing large numbers of commercial releases until those releases went way down in price.

And when the masses moved to DVD I would submit they weren't won over by increased quality so much as by convenience and price. DVD took up less space, you didn't have to rewind them, they (almost) never got stuck in the machine and they were cheap.

It's tempting to look at the way my nieces and nephews consume media and conclude there's some huge generational shift underway but the rub is, my sisters and brothers now consume media in largely the same way their kids do.

It's not just these kids today. Even adults don't buy discs anymore. Not like they used to, anyway.

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

decisions are made based upon "shareholder value" which basically means getting the stock price to increase.

It's good while it lasts, but the stock price can't increase forever. At some point it will slow down if not flat line or drop all together.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

It's good while it lasts, but the stock price can't increase forever. At some point it will slow down if not flat line or drop all together.

Then the company dies unless it pays a strong dividend. Usually, if the stock price does fall substantially below what the company feels it's worth, they'll buy their own stock back which demonstrates faith in the stock and usually increases the price.

[Member-222782]

Originally Posted by Nailwraps

Another strategy Disney and Fox can do, is make a new classic movie channel featuring their films from the 30's-mid-80's.

Great idea...until it morphs into yet another outlet for TV shows and reality programming. Happened to AMC. Cable television is now just an extension of the broadcast television industry. Just another excuse to cram more commercials down our throats.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

There's no guarantee the merger will be allowed... only time will tell.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danafel.../#7e0bf0a817c8

"Yesterday it was officially announced that The Walt Disney Company will acquire 21st Century Fox for an astounding $52.4 billion in one of the biggest deals the entertainment industry has seen. The all-stock transaction will include Twentieth Century Fox movie and TV studios, most of its cable networks and international assets. Not included in the deal are the Fox network and Fox News."

[Member-222782]

Originally Posted by TXMoviebuff77

It’s quite obvious the Fox catalog will end up on the Disney streaming service & I have no issue with that & this is coming from a supporter of physical media. Sign of the times & time to look ahead.

I agree that physical media is on its last legs. On a related note, if studios are moving away from physical media and into streaming, what will happen to all those film negatives and other source materials? If the idea is to cut down on costs, wouldn't this include getting rid of negatives? After all, storing and caring for this material costs money. Lots of it. Will they transfer all the big titles to digital files and trash the rest?

[koberulz]

Originally Posted by Nailwraps

But know the big possibility for this deal is an ultimate Star Wars saga box set containing the unaltered versions of the first 6 films on all available formats.

No it isn't. That's been said repeatedly over the last few days.

[Promo_Cop]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

There's no guarantee the merger will be allowed... only time will tell.

I wouldn't bet against it.