What effect will the Super Bowl ad have on the numbers?

[firestar120]

I'm not sure what will happen with 800+ million people watching, but I feel that it might not be good, but it could also not alter anything. Here are my predictions all the way up to July (not considering any studio changes)...

Note that these are averages of hardware and software sales combined.

Week ending February 9th: 73:27
Week ending February 16th: 72:28
Week ending February 23rd: 72:28
Week ending March 1st: 75:25
Week ending March 8th: 77:23
Week ending March 15th: 78:22
Week ending March 22nd: 81:19
Week ending March 29th: 81:19
Week ending April 5th: 82:18
Week ending April 12th: 83:17
Week ending April 19th: 87:13
Week ending April 26th: 87:13
Week ending May 3rd: 88:12
Week ending May 10th: 90:10
Week ending May 17th: 94:6
Week ending May 24th: 96:4
Week ending May 31st: 96:4
Week ending June 7th: 98:2
Week ending June 14th: 98:2
Week ending June 21st: 99:1
Week ending June 28th: 99.2:0.8
Week ending July 5th: 99.6:0.4
Week ending July 12th: 99.9:0.1

Overall, I see a growing trend for Blu-ray and that it will be the winner of the format war by the middle of July.

Just my two cents...

[jw]

I have seen alot of ps3 advertising recently with the exclamation on the blu-ray capabilities citing the titles available. As far as the superbowl ads, I think it will help increase beer sales for anheuser busch and I am looking forward to the go daddy.com ads

[Joe Cain]

Wow. HD DVD couldn't win a single week last year, but a Super Bowl ad is going to give them a bona fide software sales victory? Too much.

[firestar120]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Wow. HD DVD couldn't win a single week last year, but a Super Bowl ad is going to give them a bona fide software sales victory? Too much.

True, I didn't think about past sales figures... my bad...

[firestar120]

Originally Posted by jwbbud

I have seen alot of ps3 advertising recently with the exclamation on the blu-ray capabilities citing the titles available. As far as the superbowl ads, I think it will help increase beer sales for anheuser busch and I am looking forward to the go daddy.com ads

LOL!!

[Wreck]

wow way too much time on ur hands hehe, yeah it wont do shit, cause where a family or group is watching the superbowl together, one 30 sec ad shouldnt do anything, and if it does, there will be a Blu-supporter there to tell them how much HD DVD sux!

[DeeChizzle]

Maybe I've been in a cave lately, but does HD DVD have a commerical planned for the Super Bowl? Why has BLU decided not to run a commercial?

[Blu boy]

if they couldnt win with transformers they cant win with a commercial. i think the super bowl ad will end these amazing weeks for blu ray but by the end of the month the numbers will be at the same point there at now.
just my prediction

[jw]

I just read into what you were writing, you are saying the HDDVD is gonna win the disc sales next week? With what?
Here is all thats coming out, 1 title....a catalog one at that
Feb 5, 2008
Elizabeth - The Golden Age (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]


blu-ray:


1.
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford [Blu-ray] ~
2.
Across the Universe [Blu-ray] ~ Evan Rachel Wood, Jim Sturgess, Joe
3.
Celine Dion: Live in Las Vegas - A New Day [Blu-ray] ~ Celine Dion (Blu-ray -

4.
The Brave One [Blu-ray] ~ Jodie Foster, Terrence Howard, Nicky Katt, and
5.
Crimson Tide [Blu-ray] ~ Matt Craven, George Dzundza, Gene Hackman, and

6.
Wall Street [Blu-ray] ~ Frank Adonis, Thomas Anderson, James Bulleit, and
7.
The Jane Austen Book Club [Blu-ray] ~ Maria Bello, Emily Blunt, Kathy Baker, )


8.
Over America [Blu-ray] (Blu-ray - 2008)


9.
Over California [Blu-ray] (Blu-ray - 2008)


10.
Me, Myself & Irene [Blu-Ray] ~ Jim Carrey, Chris Cooper, Tony Cox, and

[Blu boy]

Originally Posted by DeeChizzle

Maybe I've been in a cave lately, but does HD DVD have a commerical planned for the Super Bowl?

yes and blu ray doesnt. theres been like a million threads on it

[Grif32]

Originally Posted by Blu boy

if they couldnt win with transformers they cant win with a commercial. i think the super bowl ad will end these amazing weeks for blu ray but by the end of the month the numbers will be at the same point there at now.
just my prediction

Well they could have won with Transformers if it were not for a Bogo going on

[firestar120]

Originally Posted by BigBLUballz

wow way too much time on ur hands hehe, yeah it wont do shit, cause where a family or group is watching the superbowl together, one 30 sec ad shouldnt do anything, and if it does, there will be a Blu-supporter there to tell them how much HD DVD sux!

You're right... (not about the fact that I have too much time on my hands ), just that the whole thing about the ad not really doing much. I feel that people will only care about the beer ads, and not about a cheap disc player, or that a Blu-ray fan will be there.

[NoQuestion]

Originally Posted by firestar120

I'm not sure what will happen with 800+ million people watching, but I feel that it will not be good. Here are my predictions all the way up to July (not considering any studio changes)...

Note that these are only disc sales.

Week ending February 9th: 48:52
Week ending February 16th: 52:48
Week ending February 23rd: 49:51
Week ending March 1st: 60:40
Week ending March 8th: 68:32
Week ending March 15th: 70:30
Week ending March 22nd: 75:25
Week ending March 29th: 78:22
Week ending April 5th: 80:20
Week ending April 12th: 83:17
Week ending April 19th: 87:13
Week ending April 26th: 87:13
Week ending May 3rd: 88:12
Week ending May 10th: 90:10
Week ending May 17th: 94:6
Week ending May 24th: 96:4
Week ending May 31st: 96:4
Week ending June 7th: 98:2
Week ending June 14th: 98:2
Week ending June 21st: 99:1
Week ending June 28th: 99.2:0.8
Week ending July 5th: 99.6:0.4
Week ending July 12th: 99.9:0.1

Overall, I see a growing trend for Blu-ray, with maybe a week or two with HD in the lead. But I definitely can predict that by August of this year, HD DVD will be but a niche format.

Just my two cents...

I would like to know how you think that hd-dud will win the two weeks i have in bold? even if the duds have a major release those two weeks, it would not tilt the scale in thier favor, maybe just a closer week but blu will win every week. And the part about a studio switch...that will never happen after WB/New Line/HBO switch to blu exclusive.

[CGYBLU]

Originally Posted by DeeChizzle

Maybe I've been in a cave lately, but does HD DVD have a commerical planned for the Super Bowl? Why has BLU decided not to run a commercial?

I guess you don't have internet access in your cave

[DeeChizzle]

Originally Posted by CGYBLU

I guess you don't have internet access in your cave

I guess not!

Jwwbud makes a valid point that it's still doesn't look good for the Dudsters based on what is being released in the following weeks on both formats. IMO it would have to depend on what they are advertising specifically? Firesale? 9 free HD DVD's with the purchase of a HD player?

[BLU for Blue]

Gotta remember they have Beowulf and American Gangster coming out in back to back weeks

[BLU for Blue]

Originally Posted by firestar120

I'm not sure what will happen with 800+ million people watching, but I feel that it will not be good. Here are my predictions all the way up to July (not considering any studio changes)...

Note that these are only disc sales.

Week ending February 9th: 48:52
Week ending February 16th: 52:48
Week ending February 23rd: 49:51
Week ending March 1st: 60:40
Week ending March 8th: 68:32
Week ending March 15th: 70:30
Week ending March 22nd: 75:25
Week ending March 29th: 78:22
Week ending April 5th: 80:20
Week ending April 12th: 83:17
Week ending April 19th: 87:13
Week ending April 26th: 87:13
Week ending May 3rd: 88:12
Week ending May 10th: 90:10
Week ending May 17th: 94:6
Week ending May 24th: 96:4
Week ending May 31st: 96:4
Week ending June 7th: 98:2
Week ending June 14th: 98:2
Week ending June 21st: 99:1
Week ending June 28th: 99.2:0.8
Week ending July 5th: 99.6:0.4
Week ending July 12th: 99.9:0.1



Just my two cents...

If anything, BLU will win week of FEB 9th and RED will win the next 2 with Beowulf and American Gangster

[MasterXeus]

Originally Posted by jwbbud

I just read into what you were writing, you are saying the HDDVD is gonna win the disc sales next week? With what?
Here is all thats coming out, 1 title....a catalog one at that
Feb 5, 2008
Elizabeth - The Golden Age (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD) [HD DVD]


blu-ray:


1. The Assassination of Jesse James
2. Across the Universe
3. Celine Dion: Live in Las Vegas - A New Day
4. The Brave One
5. Crimson Tide
6. Wall Street
7. The Jane Austen Book Club
8. Over America
9. Over California
10. Me, Myself & Irene

Not that it really matters (HD-DVD is still gonig to have a bad week) but Elizabeth:The Golden Age is not a catalog title, it's a new release.

[ussrelativity]

All people need to know is that HD DVD isn't good for a long term investment. It's the simple truth.

[Blus Brother]

The ads will do absolutely NOTHING at all - I have not once let a BS commercial sway my opininon on anything I have ever purchased. Only gullible naive people believe the ad hype.