Where in the world is 3DTV going??

[ADWyatt]

Two recent announcements regarding 3DTV have me scratching my head, leaving me perplexed as to the financial direction and intent that the new format is heading.

Panasonic wll be releasing its plasma 3D sets in Japan before selling them in America, and if I read the caption correctly it is believed that Japanese prices will show the 54" model in the states retailing for $6,000. If we take a thousand dollars off of that total for street discounting, that's still five grand.

At the same time as this announcement, Sony has released information stating that their entry-level 3D blu-ray player will be $199.99, a firmware upgrade this summer giving it full 3D capability.

And Sony's 3DTVs? No official price list has been released to the public, but an authorized Sony retailer has told me that his pricing sheet shows the suggested retail of the 900 series model to be $3,995. From past experience, I'm going to guess that he will be selling this unit for about $3,500. He didn't tell me the price on the 700 and 800 series of 3DTVs, as I didn't ask him for that information. Although the 900 will come with a built-in 3D decoder, I believe it will still be priced perhaps $500 higher than the comparable 2D model in its 60" size. (I believe that the 800 series has a maximum size of 55", which will suit most people. What it's cost will be, when buying the 3D decoder, I can't say.)

You might understand my confusion on pricing here. Plasma is supposed to be less expensive than LED, but apparently not when it comes to 3D. Sony 3D, while a little more reasonable at its price point, may still be $500 more than standard, and that too may turn off consumers. Yet 3D BD players are only marginally more expensive than 2D. After discounting at places like Wal-Mart, the difference in prices might not fund the cost of a value meal at McDonalds.

I'd like to hear your opinion on this, but here's where I believe 3DTV is going...

3DTV is guaranteed to succeed, because it's an add-on to current technology. In a few years, all TVs will be 3D as a matter of course, and the additional mariginal charge for 3D will be disguised in the price of a new TV. As well, all Blu-ray players will be 3D, with perhaps $30 to $40 added to their cost. 3D movie discs will cost between $5 and $10 more than 2D, depending on the popularity of the movie. (As for the discomfort of wearing glasses, in a few years nobody will even think about it. Most TV watching will be 2D, and people will routinely don the glasses for special 3D viewing. That is, until glassless 3D becomes perfected and affordable. And when that new technology becomes available, I fully guarantee you that someone will shout, "There's NO WAY that I'm not wearing glasses when I watch 3D!")

For the present day, 3D prices will be uncomforably high for much of the technology, and not simply to recoup development costs. It is well known that die-hard videophiles will pay exhorbitant prices for the latest technology, and since the buying public is slow to accept new technology anyway, it makes good sense to overprice merchandise. For those of us who are more sensible in our buying practices, I am estimating that the 4th quarter of 2011 will begin to see attractive hardware and software prices, along with a fairly reasonable stock of movie titles.

So waiting for the price of 3D to drop would make good sense, as with all new technology. Although...

...I really could use a new BD player for the livingroom, and a 3D blu-ray player would hardly cost any more than 2D. And my gosh, my new BD player would be so lonely without a 3DTV to go along with it. Not that I actually would buy such an overpriced thing this year. I'm just saying...

[Mendoza]

At first blush my thoughts about this iteration of 3D are that it will fail. How long did it take for HD to start catching on? 5-10 years, and now we're being offered the novelty of home 3D for the low, low price of: A new expensive television, a new Blu-ray player, and x pairs of glasses. Disposable income is in short supply these days (at least in the States) and I don't know anyone who can afford or would buy all this stuff. And of course there simply isn't enough ready-made content for it at present.
All of this could change but if 3D ever even approaches the mainstream it's going to be years from now. For the foreseeable future, and under the best circumstances, it will evolve into a solid niche market.

[troyus]

here in australia we arnt in depression and our $$ is catching up to the USA one very fast!

But yea, its a massive investment for v little reward. (few titles)
I was gunna get a new tv and amp anyway, so Im just postponing it a little to see what 3D is like.

[djc11369]

When I saw my first RealD 3D movie I was excited and could hardly wait for it to become a home option. Now after seeing 3 or 4 3Dmovies, the last being Avatar, I have to say the novelty has wore off. I also noticed the last couple that I went to that I started getting a headache about about halfway in and lasted a couple of hours after the movie. I had already written off 3D before Avatar but with all the hype I thought I might be missing something and went and saw it...wasn't impressed. I won't be replacing my equipment until something more substantial comes along to warrant it.

[HiDefRev]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. For the past 50 years I've been hearing the same story every time a new innovation comes out. " It's a fad, it's too expensive, nobody wants it.....blah blah blah. All of these things were said about TV in the early 50's, about color TV, about FM radio, about UHF TV, about 8-track tapes, about cassette tapes, about CDs, about DVDs, about HDTV, about Blu-ray, and now 3D. Geeeezzzzz. Don't you "naysayers" ever get tired of putting down EVERY new technology that is introduced ?????

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by ADWyatt

3DTV is guaranteed to succeed, because it's an add-on to current technology. In a few years, all TVs will be 3D as a matter of course, and the additional mariginal charge for 3D will be disguised in the price of a new TV. As well, all Blu-ray players will be 3D, with perhaps $30 to $40 added to their cost. 3D movie discs will cost between $5 and $10 more than 2D, depending on the popularity of the movie. (As for the discomfort of wearing glasses, in a few years nobody will even think about it. Most TV watching will be 2D, and people will routinely don the glasses for special 3D viewing. That is, until glassless 3D becomes perfected and affordable. And when that new technology becomes available, I fully guarantee you that someone will shout, "There's NO WAY that I'm not wearing glasses when I watch 3D!")

Are you saying that people will insist on wearing glasses if there is a viable alternative?

You have three different groups that aren't going to be happy with these glasses:

1. People who wear prescription eyewear
2. People with large families (not the same size fits everybody)
3. People who hate wearing any kind of shading eyewear indoors

It's a forced option. It's not like people are looking forward to it. Maybe the folks who like wearing cheese-wedge hats at home for football games, I guess they would shout about having to wear them.

Originally Posted by ADWyatt

For the present day, 3D prices will be uncomforably high for much of the technology, and not simply to recoup development costs. It is well known that die-hard videophiles will pay exhorbitant prices for the latest technology, and since the buying public is slow to accept new technology anyway, it makes good sense to overprice merchandise. For those of us who are more sensible in our buying practices, I am estimating that the 4th quarter of 2011 will begin to see attractive hardware and software prices, along with a fairly reasonable stock of movie titles.

That's a pretty aggressive schedule. Pre-production is starting now for films looking for a quarter 4 release in 2011; I doubt most of them will be 3-D. I haven't seen any announcements about 3-D films, other than the usual cartoons.

The hardware difference between so-called 2-D and 3-D sets is nominal, at best. Outside of the HDMI 1.4 requirement for decoding, most current sets are quite capable of displaying 3-D content. Prices won't stay high for new gear.

There is also going to be huge demand to retrofit via "black box" older sets. Mitsubishi, and some smaller vendors, are already talking about this - it's a 1080i solution, matching broadcast television's max HD resolution, and I'm sure it will fly with the broadcasters.

But there won't be much content, for some time. Not every theater is an IMAX theater, showing Avatar. The costs are very high, with the theater transition rate very low. This is going to be a long, hard slog.

Originally Posted by ADWyatt

So waiting for the price of 3D to drop would make good sense, as with all new technology. Although...

...I really could use a new BD player for the livingroom, and a 3D blu-ray player would hardly cost any more than 2D. And my gosh, my new BD player would be so lonely without a 3DTV to go along with it. Not that I actually would buy such an overpriced thing this year. I'm just saying...

Don't worry about it, there's no point buying anything with a possible max number of 3-D releases this year being six. All cartoons. Not worth it.

[Massacre1]

IMHO in a year 3D will cost the same as standard (2D) does now...

[Gremal]

New technology costs a premium. I really don't see 3D catching on for home video, despite the success of Avatar.

[Got2LoveGadgets]

Originally Posted by HiDefRev

Yeah, yeah, yeah. For the past 50 years I've been hearing the same story every time a new innovation comes out. " It's a fad, it's too expensive, nobody wants it.....blah blah blah. All of these things were said about TV in the early 50's, about color TV, about FM radio, about UHF TV, about 8-track tapes, about cassette tapes, about CDs, about DVDs, about HDTV, about Blu-ray, and now 3D. Geeeezzzzz. Don't you "naysayers" ever get tired of putting down EVERY new technology that is introduced ?????

+1 bring on the 3D revolution

[Got2LoveGadgets]

According to Futuresource’s Jim Bottoms (im not totally sure who he is), the industry is now currently moving into a preparatory stage. The 3D revolution will actually begin in 2011: ‘We’ll see new 3D movie releases on Blu-ray, re-masters of classic blockbusters like Star Wars, The Matrix and The Lord of the Rings, a wider range of 3D TV content for sports, wildlife documentaries and concerts, and studios introducing selective production of 3D TV shows and series. Moving forward, a new generation of videogame consoles will begin to emerge, fully embracing 3D technologies.’

I know Star Wars and Titanic are currently being converted to 3D not to mention Pixars back catalogue a good chuck of which was originally created to be viewed 3D

[EvilGav]

Originally Posted by HiDefRev

Yeah, yeah, yeah. For the past 50 years I've been hearing the same story every time a new innovation comes out. " It's a fad, it's too expensive, nobody wants it.....blah blah blah. All of these things were said about TV in the early 50's, about color TV, about FM radio, about UHF TV, about 8-track tapes, about cassette tapes, about CDs, about DVDs, about HDTV, about Blu-ray, and now 3D. Geeeezzzzz. Don't you "naysayers" ever get tired of putting down EVERY new technology that is introduced ?????

Thats nice, but you seem to have missed out :

Beta-max, V2000, Laser-disc, S-VHS, VCD, S-VCD, Mini-disc, SACD, DVD-A and HD-DVD - all either failed or were extreme niche markets that never made it to the big time.

3D has been touted as the NBT since, what, the 1960's with anaglyph glasses. Yet it's never managed to break into the main-stream. The current version is much better than anything thats been around before, but still has the same issue of requiring a set of glasses to work.

As a cinema experience, I can see how it works - you've already consciously made the decisions to go and sit in a room for a couple of hours, putting on glasses is hardly burdensome in those circumstances. But in the home, do I want to interrupt my casual viewing by having to put on glasses ?

I can understand why manufacturers want this, it gives them something new to sell. HD was great, especially when the first sets were found not to be full HD (720p), meaning that a whole shed load of people needed a new TV again. This was against the back-drop of having made no major changes in TV technology for some 40 years (size and flatness of screen changed, but little else) - we're now in a situation of changing the TV technology 3 times in little more than a decade (720p -> 1080p -> 3DTV).

The technology companies are very much in a position where they could kill off the very market they want, simply by upgrading everything too quickly - the faster it upgrades, the more reticent people will be about being an early-adopter.

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by Massacre1

IMHO in a year 3D will cost the same as standard (2D) does now...

Not if you have to re-buy it - because then, it will cost twice as much.

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by HiDefRev

Yeah, yeah, yeah. For the past 50 years I've been hearing the same story every time a new innovation comes out. " It's a fad, it's too expensive, nobody wants it.....blah blah blah. All of these things were said about TV in the early 50's, about color TV, about FM radio, about UHF TV, about 8-track tapes, about cassette tapes, about CDs, about DVDs, about HDTV, about Blu-ray, and now 3D. Geeeezzzzz. Don't you "naysayers" ever get tired of putting down EVERY new technology that is introduced ?????

I don't remember anyone knocking television as a technology, except the film industry, early on.

I remember folks knocking 8-track tape - it chopped up long album songs - but I don't remember anyone knocking cassette tapes. Heck, I remember 4 track tapes being knocked, then they were quickly supplanted by 8-track, and both were supplanted in four years by cassettes.

I remember folks knocking UHF TV getting knocked -reception was terrible, and very short range - which was supplanted by satellite (hideously expensive) and then cable. Oh, the howling! People wanted their "free TV".

The only people who knocked CD's were audio purists who loved the vinyl sound. There was no serious opposition that I can recall.

I have no memory of anyone knocking DVD's, perhaps you can provide examples?

The question here is quite different. In every example you cite, the media was already established. You had video or audio, quite standard since early in the 20th century, recorded in pretty much the same format for a long, long time.

3D is different. There is no established standard for media, and very little content available. The playback equipment is very expensive. A 3D platform of television and playback equipment costs far more than expected, and the high definition platform recently presented to the public was very quickly adopted. I didn't hear any complaints about flat screen HDTV's, which didn't appear on your "naysayer" list.

There is still no established standard, no matter what anyone says. Until that is clear and complete, there will be intense skepticism about where this is headed. I see the whole problem of glasses - whose shutter refresh method still may be proprietary to manufacturers - as akin to the 8-track tape problem, a rush job based on technology that is a bit too crude to be ready for full acceptance by they public.

If you like 3D, go for it. I think most people like the idea, but are turned off by the current incomplete implementation and marketing.

[steve1971]

Personally I hope 3D succeeds I really because if it dont can you imagine the money thats gonna be lost by the major manufacturers? Personally I think they moved to fast with this 3D thing. I think they should have let the HD/Blu ray format grow a little more then go for 3D. Now they want people to literally upgrade to new tv sets, new players ect. Here in America money is getting harder and harder to make it seems and now they want cash strapped people to go out and upgrade their systems for 3D? I know they aint forcing you to buy new product but come on! Me? I just bought my new tv last November along with a new Blu ray player and they are both working like a charm so no upgrades are coming anytime in the near future from me. For those that want this new little toy called 3D? Go for it. More power to you. Its your money. I just hope 3D dont fall flat on its face because there is gonna be alot of money lost if it does.

[moodyman]

Originally Posted by ADWyatt

3DTV is guaranteed to succeed

by who??

[bhampton]

My 3dtv is going right over there.

Hope the "adult" industry embraces this new fangled 3d stuff. Seems like it could be nifty.

-Brian

[ewsjr]

who cares? I sure don't. I have loved movies all my life and gimmicks (other than the ones used by William Castle) add nothing to experiencing a film. I mean, c'mon, the chariot race in Ben-Hur, considered the greatest action sequence in the history of motion pictures, IN 3D. that would be a joke.

[Yautja]

3D, what next????
Upgrade after upgrade, I don't think so

[gates70]

Originally Posted by steve1971

Personally I hope 3D succeeds I really because if it dont can you imagine the money thats gonna be lost by the major manufacturers? Personally I think they moved to fast with this 3D thing. I think they should have let the HD/Blu ray format grow a little more then go for 3D. Now they want people to literally upgrade to new tv sets, new players ect. Here in America money is getting harder and harder to make it seems and now they want cash strapped people to go out and upgrade their systems for 3D? I know they aint forcing you to buy new product but come on! Me? I just bought my new tv last November along with a new Blu ray player and they are both working like a charm so no upgrades are coming anytime in the near future from me. For those that want this new little toy called 3D? Go for it. More power to you. Its your money. I just hope 3D dont fall flat on its face because there is gonna be alot of money lost if it does.

Well they better be ready to lose money then because I can't see most people watching tv with glasses on all the time, and that includes me. Most people I know have very modest HT's if any, so why would the average person want to spend money on this stuff let alone buy glasses for everyone. Besides, they've been trying to give us 3D for the past 20 years and it's failed. 3D is meant to be a "bonus" or a "once in a while" thing IMO, not a full time thing. If they couldn't get 3D to work as a once in a while thing in movies, I don't know how they'll get it to work on a full time basis. Personally I get a headache everytime and don't like the washed out colours it gives. They also better be ready for all the scammers out there that will claim that 3D tv screwed up their eyes and will start suing and stuff. I can just see it now.

[Buddy Christ]

Where is my flying car!!