End of the format war?... (long read)

[JTK]

Got this gem in my email box this morning:

I don't agree with all of his opinions and commentary on this. He's somewhat biased towards HD-DVD, as you'll see, but it's interesting stuff nonetheless.

Coming on the heels of Warner's announcement that they're working on a DVD that could combine HD-DVD and Blu Ray comes this major news from CNN.

IMO this is great news for all consumers -- except those who might have purchased a player already. Looks like 2007 could REALLY be the year to invest in the next gen of DVD.

Also, I feel this is also a major, major blow to Blu-Ray. Sony clearly had hoped Blu-Ray would be the ONLY next-gen DVD out there, but this virtually confirms HD-DVD isn't going anywhere, anytime soon. With Blu-Ray's production costs being twice that of HD-DVD, you have to wonder why anyone will be paying more money for a Blu-Ray PLAYER when HD-DVD will be giving you the same quality (so far) -- especially if this story ends up correct and every HD film on DVD will be in BOTH formats. That is big, bad news for Sony.

If anything this is going to further advance concerns that Blu Ray will end up another Sony technological misjudgement like Beta and the UMD format, or whatever they tried marketing with the PSP.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/ptech/0...eut/index.html

New DVD could end format war

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (Reuters) -- The format war around next generation DVDs may be over before it has begun, thanks to a breakthrough from a British media technology company.

Britain-based New Medium Enterprises (NME) said on Tuesday it had solved a technical production problem that makes it possible to produce a cheap multiple-layer DVD disk containing one film in different, competing formats.

"Current technologies to create multiple layer disks mostly don't work. We've created a technology for mass production of multiple layers that does not suffer from the well known problem of low yields," said NME Chief Technology Officer Eugene Levich.

A low yield means that many DVDs coming off the manufacturing lines are not working and have to be discarded.

The production costs of a multi-layer DVD using the new NME technology are estimated to be around 9 cents, compared with the 6 cents for a standard single-layer play-back DVD, according to Dutch company ODMS, one of the world's leading makers of production lines for optical disks.

This 50 percent cost increase compares favorably with the current generation of multi-layer recordable DVD disks which cost 3 to 5 times as much to produce than a single layer disk, due to low yields.

The technological breakthrough comes one week after three employees at movie studio Warner Bros. filed a patent for the application of multiple formats on a single DVD disc.

"There's no collision between Warner and us. They patent the application, we are patenting the technology. These are complementary patents. I'm glad it's happened. Warner opened our eyes, because it shows they really want to do this and create multi-format, multi-layer disks," Levich said.

Time Warner is the world's largest media company and owns Warner Bros. Former Warner Home Video President James Cardwell joined NME as a board member last month.
Nipped in the bud?

Multiple format DVD disks can solve the emerging war between the two new high capacity DVD formats: Blu-Ray, which is backed by Sony Corp., and Toshiba-supported HD-DVD.

High capacity DVD disks are needed to store high definition movies on a single disk. Movies stored in high definition provide five to six times more picture detail than standard definition which is used in normal DVDs.

Hollywood studios have been choosing sides in the DVD format war, each supporting one of the two formats. Some have said they will produce films in both, in addition to the standard DVD format.

By putting the same film on a single disk in the two competing formats, movie studios can save money and consumers do not have to worry if they are buying the right disk for their player.

The technological breakthrough by NME was confirmed by ODMS.

"I can confirm this. We were very skeptical when NME approached us. We have experience with producing dual layer recordable DVD discs and the yield is below 50 percent. But their technology gives a much higher yield and also brings other cost savings," said ODMS Chief Executive Jadranko Dovic.

ODMS said it will have the first prototype production line using NME's technology running by early 2007.

NME said it had also created new technology for the machines which have to read and write the disk, which is another bottleneck with multi-layer disks. The current generation of DVD players can read up to two layers.

NME has created DVD disks with up to 10 different layers that were still readable. It has created its own player, but it is willing to license the technology to mainstream consumer electronics companies, Levich said.

Movies on a DVD are stored at different depths depending on the technology. Blu-Ray discs store information only 0.1 millimeter from the surface while HD-DVD discs store it at 0.6 millimeters.

Movies longer than two hours would need to be stored on two layers of the same format very close to each other.

[Jazar]

I don't see how this spells Doom and Gloom for Blu-ray but at the same time is good news for HD DVD? Personally I think this news is "too little too late." The gears are already in motion for both formats and to change tracks at this stage may not be plausible especially since there isn't even a prototype out that can play this media.

How much information can these new DVDs store? Unless it's close to 50GB there's still a lot of use for BR & even HD DVD.

[theknub]

ok, great and all. how does it work?

interesting yes, but without any ideas regarding how the technology works or is created it is vaporware (i don't want to use that term since i feel like a fanboi saying it but u get the idea).

for all we know, this is a dual sided disc with BR on one side and HD DVD on the other.

lastly, if this tech is just coming out, it sets the whole hi def industry back years if it is different from the current standard. years of R & D goes into a single product testing, developing and working out issues. we suddenly couldn't have something new to step into the game without years of dev and research.

[Blue]

I think they forgot one thing to make a Blu Ray Disc you need a license from the BDA, to make a HD-Disc you need a license from another body (the opposition). I think from previous hybrid player posts, licenses from the "precieved winning format" will not be granted to make such a beast as they will be after as quick a demise of the other format as they can orchestrate. It's one thing to patent something another to get it market. Oh we are in for interesting times.

[JTK]

You all make great points.

Like I said: THis person is biased towards HD-DVD because he's fallen for that "I can buy it at Walmart cheap" argument.


I basically just copied and pasted everything you all wrote and emailed it to him. I won't be hearing from him again for a long while.

No I didn't take credit for all of it, either. I said "Here's what some of my friends thought of your 'story'"

[hmurchison]

Sounds great but we'll have to see how NME can execute their plan along with warner.

I'd love to buy a disc that plays in my future BD player as well as HD DVD player but consider me a skeptic until I actually see high yields coming from the NME line.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Sounds great but we'll have to see how NME can execute their plan along with warner.

I'd love to buy a disc that plays in my future BD player as well as HD DVD player but consider me a skeptic until I actually see high yields coming from the NME line.

Believe it when you see it.

Sounds like fantasy and vaporware to me, as is.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Unless they have a working demo disc, it's just theory.

[phloyd]

Regardless of whether this is possible or not, I can't see any of the studios jumping at this other than Warner and Paramount.

And they aren't gonna be much of a factor in the 'war' anyways since they are already available on both formats.

I would see attempts to do this similar to doing the DVD Combo discs - why would I want to have an extra format I have no intention of using (regardless of what my HD preference is).

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Regardless of whether this is possible or not, I can't see any of the studios jumping at this other than Warner and Paramount.

And they aren't gonna be much of a factor in the 'war' anyways since they are already available on both formats.

I would see attempts to do this similar to doing the DVD Combo discs - why would I want to have an extra format I have no intention of using (regardless of what my HD preference is).

I don't fully agree with this. If what they say in the article is true the NME process yields well enough to put the replication costs at or below current BD-ROM production pricing. This would be a huge boon in costs because now I only have one SKU to manage, one SKU to store in warehouses one SKU to track. The cost savings and ROI are very evident here. I could see Sony/Columbia waffling but honestly this would be just the thing that other studios would be intrigued by

[zombie]

I'll sum it up best by saying this:

IT'S TOO LATE!

Blu-ray and HD DVD are here now.

[thunderhawk]

Indeed. By the way, we all know how it went with dual sided DVDs.
You can hardly find any nowadays. By the way, the movie studios want to put a label on them.

It's too late indeed.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

If what they say in the article is true the NME process yields well enough to put the replication costs at or below current BD-ROM production pricing.

It is not a case of production cost - it is authoring.

That is why I say Warner and Paramount could be interested since they are authoring for both anyways.

The others would need to gear up to author for the other side ... that is not trivial regardless of how cheap it is to make the discs...

[PurpleAardvark]

Originally Posted by nyg

I'll sum it up best by saying this:

IT'S TOO LATE!

Blu-ray and HD DVD are here now.

I agree 100%. Does that person honestly think that sony or toshiba is going to let this haappen. Warner may be big but they have no rep. for there players if they have any. How is going to take a risk on a company that is not known at all. Plus add in the fact Sony is very big, toshiba is smaller but still a big company. My guess is they would both put an effort in to destroy this new beast which unless they new format is willingto take a huge loss which my guess is it couldn't they it is over before it started. I would love to se a dual format DVD but it isn't very likely to happen IMO. Just like I feel HD is doomed. Athor factor in this dual format is Mac or apple. 75% of studios use Apple editing programs. Apple is backing blue ray with majo suppport. I don't feel that after all of this money sunk in to blu ray they are going to jump in and do HD DVD too. It would be like jumping into bed with microsoft. Anthor two companies that are always at war with each other. Sorry to say it folks but IMO HD and the new format are Doomed by who they are supported and made by IMO.

[JTK]

Here's the so-called response I've gotten so far.

This is basically a Cliff's Notes of AVS for the past year.

Most of you should feel deja vu reading this BS right away:

You'll see my responses along with it:

How long have you been a Sony share-holder?

Already know where this is headed...

Last week I was looking at these new disc formats on a dispay rack in my local FYE. I know FYE doesn't exactly peddle "gourmet video for people who love video" (as Leonard Nimoy would say) but it is a "common man's" store, and these are the places technology format victors are largely determind (sadly).

But that's all years down the road.

Right now, we're strictly in early adopter territory, across the boards.

HD adoption as a whole is going pretty slowly.

As a common man, I look at the rack of these spiffy new discs. One type is called HD-DVD. The name "HD-DVD" is readily comprehensible to a consumer. "Wow...a DVD which is Hi-Def! I could see getting one of those."

Yeah, I've seen this "Joe Six pack is going to carry HD-DVD to the finish line" argument a million times. I just don't believe it.

Then I look at the other discs. There are about a third as many Blue-Ray titles as HD-DVD. "Hmm...Blue-Ray? I wonder what that is? Are these movies? Games? Maybe they're soundtracks. Oh well..." and Blue-Ray passes quickly from my mind.

That's you.

A while later I wander into another common man's store, Best Buy. Right near the entrance there is a Blue Ray demo. "Oh, so this is Blue-Ray!" I look at the demo, which is a bunch of movie trailers -- NONE of which look any better than any of my conventional DVDs, and certainly don't begin to approach the look of what I see on the HD channels I get at home.

See, that's the mistake: You got get off this "common man" theme and argument it just isn't applicable in the here and now and it won't be for several years to come.

"How much is the player?" I look at the price tag. "A THOUSAND BUCKS? Are they crazy?"

Welcome to early adoption. That's relatively low for bleeding edge tech.

Toshiba had to subsidize these first gen beta players of theirs as is. They cut corners and took the cheap way out by using 2002 era laptop parts.

The newer A2 and XA2 that were announced at IFA 2006 and the recent CEDIA are simply more of the same, and the XA2 will cost a grand.

So there goes that argument.

You can buy a Toshiba player that's buggy as hell to play Universal discs in high def and multiplatform titles.

That's HD-DVD, in a nutshell.

So we have two competing formats. One with a name which makes sense and priced pretty reasonably for a new format. Then there is competing format with a weird name which makes no sense, and which is grossly overpriced. I'm sure Blue-Ray looks fantastic when demoed properly. But Best Buy is where the great unwashed see all the cool new inventions. That bad Blue-Ray demo could turn-off millions of consumers.

They'll get it fixed. *shrugs*

I'm just looking at this from the perspective of the average Joe.

The average Joe doesn't care.

The average Joe bought himself a $100 DVD player and he thinks he's hot @#$%.

If you're lucky, he may have recently bough his $3000 plasma and hooked it up to his outrageously overpriced Bose system, but good luck convincing him to even spend the extra $10 a month on his cable or satellite bill to get the HD tier.


Average Joe is not in this thing one way or the other.

They won't be for a good number of years from now.

And I just don't see regular consumers going for the expensive and (so far) poorly demoed Blue-Ray. This doesn't spell victory for HD-DVD either, but it certainly improves its chances of winning the propaganda war.

Regular consumers aren't in this thing.

[Deciazulado]

So now we would have BD, HD DVD, and 10 layer DVD? No thanks I don't want WWIII

I'm with NYG and the others: too late

You'd have to buy a new player to play this 10-DVD too. Same difference.



About JTK's mail correspondent,

"How much is the player?" I look at the price tag. "A THOUSAND BUCKS? Are they crazy?"

That's what VHS owners said about DVD..
o/~I remember it well.. ~\o - Maurice Chevalier

__________________
DVD is the new VHS
HD DVD is the new Beta

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

That's what VHS owners said about DVD..
o/~I remember it well.. ~\o - Maurice Chevalier

Oh yeah.

I remember my dad taking a BATH on the first Betamax player and then having to buy VHS later. Crazy money, especially when you take into account inflation from late 70's/early 80's.

__________________
DVD is the new VHS
HD DVD is the new Beta

^^ So what's Blu-Ray?

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

So now we would have BD, HD DVD, and 10 layer DVD? No thanks I don't want WWIII

The allowed sum of all variables (data layer average height variance, variance of a given layer over the entire disk, etc.) is up to 70 microns per layer IIRC. Thus the layers for a given DVD are 70+ microns apart. Simple arithmetic would put 10 layers at 0.7 millimeters including a 70 micron top layer (which, bye-the-bye, is thinner than the BDA's stated nominla 100 micron top layer). Since a DVD is defined as only 0.6 millimeters from the lowest layer to the top of the disk 10 layers exceed the physical thickness specification by 100 microns.

Thus, 10 DVD layers is not even possible, let alone feasible.

Additionally, the depth of field of the optics for HD DVD and DVD are not that great. Last I checked the depth of field was less than about 200 microns or at most three HD DVD or DVD layers. It would probably take a set of adaptive optics or multiple optics to see more than three layers. Both options are a lot higher cost.

Finally, if a 10 layer were to have, say, six BDA compliant layers (BDA compliant layers are nominally within 25 microns of each other), two HD DVD compliant layers and two DVD compliant layers, it would require a player with a minimum of three separate optics each tuned to a unique depth of field and depth within the disk. It's physically possible, but it would be extremely costly (the DVD and HD DVD layers would be at non standard depths and thus possibly not even DVD and HD DVD compliant). However -- in theory -- it could be done.

But then, if you have six BDA compliant layers -- coming in at 150 GB -- why would you want the other two formats?

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by JTK

^^ So what's Blu-Ray?

The new 35?

[thunderhawk]

Originally Posted by JTK

Oh yeah.

I remember my dad taking a BATH on the first Betamax player and then having to buy VHS later. Crazy money, especially when you take into account inflation from late 70's/early 80's.



^^ So what's Blu-Ray?

PS: we shouldn't leave out Laserdisc!


Oeh yeh