What Are They Thinking?

[stockstar1138]

What is HD DVD thinking having this BOGO on Amazon right now? I'm sure some HD DVD fanboy troll is going to read this and think, see they are upset and are spreading FUD because they relazied they are in trouble and blu-ray is dead, but i assure you nothing is farther from the truth.
What is Toshiba doing running a BOGO on amazon at this point in the game. Retailers are fed up with this war from what I hear. They want 1 HD format. Don't think for a second that they aren't looking at Q5 sales along with studios. So, when HD DVD has BOGOs on Amazon, what does that do, it takes sales out of the hands of B&M stores. This BOGO on Amazon is only going to inflate the ratio in which blu-ray outsells hd dvd at B&M stores. A B&M store dropping HD DVD is just as big as a studio shift. Remember studios sell movies to retailers, not customers, so if a store like Circuit City drops HD DVD, imagine what the universal rep has to go back to GE and say, "yeah, expect hd dvd sales to be about 10% less than what we expected." GE already thinks that HD DVD sales are poor, if something like that happened, it could be a tipping point in a major decision. Amazon will sell HD DVD for years no matter what happens, they sell laserdisc still, so its of little to no concern what they do as far as retailing goes, but their impact on the sales of B&M stores could have a very major impact, and running a BOGO for your format on Amazon right now creates a very negative impact throughout B&M stores.
Now, I have an issue what is being sold in these BOGOs. HD DVD fanboys have whined since Transformers about how blu-ray has these BOGOs the week of big hd dvd releases. Only one of these BOGOs (transformers) dealt with blu-ray doing a BOGO on new titles. Everything else has been strictly catalog. What on god's earth is hd dvd thinking doing an BOGO on Harry Potter or Bourne? For one, that sends a signal of desperation and disapointment in sales at normal pricing. Discounts on brand new products are only done when sales are disappoiting or inventory is trying to be cleared. The second and most important point is their idiocy at trying to woo warner. Im assuming the HD DVD group asked Warners permission to put HP in the BOGO and pay the cost of running the BOGO in an attempt to come back and say, look, look hp sold better on hd dvd than it did on blu-ray. If Warner is paying for HP to be BOGO, then I say, game-set-match, they are just dumping it and a blu-ray exclusive announcement is imminent. Even if this HP BOGO tips the numbers for HP in favor of HD DVD for the short term, what does that tell warner? It tells them that the only way they can sell more than blu-ray is by basically selling their hd dvd titles at half off. Does WB really want to go with a format that has to be discounted at half off in order to meet sales expectations? No way. Are they stupid and can't see what Toshiba is trying to do with the numbers. Nope, they aren't.
And what is this BOGO on new titles telling the consumer? Blu-ray doesn't run day-and-date BOGOs on titles two weeks after they come out. If I paid $100+ for the Harry Potter set when it came out, i would be PO'd right now. I'd be telling myself, shoot, next time you should just wait a few more days and you will probably be able to get it half off. Running these types of sales on new titles just because they didnt' meet expectations, is beyond stupid. Its only going to hurt initial sales of new titles coming out in the future. Consumers are going to be wary of paying full price now for new releases in hopes of getting it a lot cheaper in a matter of 15 days. Their biggest two titles since Transformers have been in BOGOs a week after being released. Unless HD DVD is willing to run BOGOs on all their new titles when they come out, they have just hurt future sales of all decent releases with this desperate BOGO.
And what is Toshiba doing, they are the big guns behind this I believe. It was them who paid of Paramount (not M$). How can they possibly afford to be doing this? They've already discounted players so much its not even funny, they have to pay studios to support their format, software was their only hope at turning a profit on hd dvd. Now they are basically giving away over half of their software instead of selling it (BOGO + 10 free titles with a player). They are losing major $ on all fronts. HD DVD hurt profits last quarter big time and I can only imagine that they are going to be worse this quarter with the desperate pricing of A3 players, free movies, half off movies, and continued checks having to be written to retailers and studios to keep HD DVD in the game.


On another note, I'm sick and tired of all the panicking on blu-ray.com. Some idiot comes in here with 1 post and says he knows a contact at warner and yadda, yadda, yadda, they like hd dvd more, blah, blah, blah, more features, no catching up on titles like the matrix, V, Batman, and people are believing him and saying, "OMGZ! There is no way WB is supporting us. The like HD DUD moarz!" Its ridiculous. Or if Penton doesn't reassure us everyday that something big is happening, people are like, where did Penton go? Why isn't he telling us on the hour that WB is really looking at going with blu-ray or Univeral is going neutral. He must know something is going astray and doesn't want to tell us. You know what babies? Maybe its because Penton is the one brokering the deal between WB and the BDA and he doesn't have time to come here and tell you guys the same sh1t every single day! You guys know who you are and I'm calling you out. You are spreading just as much FUD on blu-ray.com as trolls are, you are fearful, uncertain, and doubtful of our format because of what some @$$hat said about his "contacts" after he has only been here for a day. Look to the insiders that have proven themselves time and time again, they are the guides to what is going to happen in the near future, not some troll imposter from avsforum trying to get a laugh from how easy it is to get some of you guys ryled up, who has never made a correct prediction in his life. If Penton says we are in good shape two weeks ago, and doesn't say anything to the contrary, we are in good shape, if some guy with 7 posts, says "Oh noz the skyz are falling on blu-ray," don't fall for it, you just make this website look bad.

Sorry for the long rant, just wanted to get my thoughts out there. and hey, at least i used paragraph breaks this time

[jaymzbo]

Wow, that was quite the manifesto. I trust you got it all out of your system? (j/k); I could not agree more about the frequency of "oh no, let's panic" posts; they seem to flourish when things are not looking so good for that other format...........

[sj001]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

Sorry for the long rant, just wanted to get my thoughts out there. and hey, at least i used paragraph breaks this time

100% man, 100%. I've been saying most of these things in other threads for the past two weeks now... obviously not all in one big mega-rant, but people do need to calm down and stop panicking every five seconds.

Red has realized they can't GIVE AWAY hardware, so now they are trying to GIVE AWAY software for half off, and it really isn't gonna make much of a difference. Toshiba has already lost a ton of money, how they can justify this to their shareholders is beyond me.

Hopefully in a month or so, there will be solid answers, and an end to this silly war.

[T-Town Oil]

couldnt agree more...it gets old when people constantly think the sky is falling. all we can really do is wait it out and continue to buy as many movies as possible. its definitely nothing to be getting panic stricken over...

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by sj001

100% man, 100%. I've been saying most of these things in other threads for the past two weeks now... obviously not all in one big mega-rant, but people do need to calm down and stop panicking every five seconds.

Red has realized they can't GIVE AWAY hardware, so now they are trying to GIVE AWAY software for half off, and it really isn't gonna make much of a difference. Toshiba has already lost a ton of money, how they can justify this to their shareholders is beyond me.

Hopefully in a month or so, there will be solid answers, and an end to this silly war.

was it really nessecary to quote my entire post right on though. desperate times call for desperate measures and this is clearly one or toshibas most desperate measures.

another thing id like to add is about a month ago we had all these, "Wal-mart favors HD DVD" posts beacuse of the $98 firesale. Id just like to rub it in some of the panickers faces. What has Wal-mart done for HD DVD since then? Nothing They don't even offer the cheapest prices on players anymore. There selection is usually >12 titles/store while blu-ray usualy has around 30. They havn't done anything to help out HD DUD. It was said numerours times that the firesale was the last part of a contract between Toshiba and Wal-mart from about a year ago. but few believed it and instead panicked and proceeded to spread FUD about blu-ray.

[camper]

Who's Penton?

~camper

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by camper

Who's Penton?

~camper

Penton is an insider, who basically has never been wrong about anything. He has said and hinted numerous times in the past few weeks that blu-ray is in a very good position in the run up to CES.

[SpikesBluBlooded]

{clap}{clap}{clap}

Well done, sir, well done. I've been wanting to sit down and compose my thoughts on a great deal of the FUD being spread (BY OUR OWN MEMBERS NO LESS!)

[sj001]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

was it really nessecary to quote my entire post right on though. desperate times call for desperate measures and this is clearly one or toshibas most desperate measures.

another thing id like to add is about a month ago we had all these, "Wal-mart favors HD DVD" posts beacuse of the $98 firesale. Id just like to rub it in some of the panickers faces. What has Wal-mart done for HD DVD since then? Nothing They don't even offer the cheapest prices on players anymore. There selection is usually >12 titles/store while blu-ray usualy has around 30. They havn't done anything to help out HD DUD. It was said numerours times that the firesale was the last part of a contract between Toshiba and Wal-mart from about a year ago. but few believed it and instead panicked and proceeded to spread FUD about blu-ray.

I truncated my quote...

With the sheer number of CE's on the market with BD Players, there is just no way that HD-DVD can have an advantage in any B&M store, and Walmart as well. I think Kjack had mentioned that there are a "jaw-dropping" amount of BD players being produced in China right now. So we will have a whole slew of those at the beginning of next year. Can't wait to see Funai come out with a 1080P player at the SAME cost as the Toshiba 1080i model. LOL.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

On another note, I'm sick and tired of all the panicking on blu-ray.com. Some idiot comes in here with 1 post and says he knows a contact at warner and yadda, yadda, yadda, they like hd dvd more, blah, blah, blah, more features, no catching up on titles like the matrix, V, Batman, and people are believing him and saying, "OMGZ! There is no way WB is supporting us. The like HD DUD moarz!" Its ridiculous. Or if Penton doesn't reassure us everyday that something big is happening, people are like, where did Penton go?

And, in case people didn't see Penton-Man's post in the Insider's Thread, he has warned he will not be around much because he's working hard for CES. So, he won't be around as much to reassure.

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Now, it’s going to pretty much be nose to the grindstone for me folks all the way up and thru CES, so don’t read anything negative into my absence.

Just remember to point someone at that message when the inevitable "Where's Penton-Man?!!" hand-wringing occurs.

Gary

[Crackbone]

Penton's response.

I’ve received a bunch of PM’s about HD DVD bogo sales and what not --currently going on somewhere, or already finished?

After discussions yesterday, I am not concerned about this or any other future HD DVD sales for that matter. Personally now, I think there should be sufficient sales data even without waiting for 5th quarter numbers or beyond.

The only thing on my mind at this time is whether a certain would be totally blu studio gets “exce$$ively mounted” like another one did several months ago to corrupt a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you guys that are PMing me about HD DVD bogo sales want to worry about something, that is the only possible thing I can see that could potentially derail a good expedited outcome…… and so far, everything is still on track.

Later

[mgonzo2u]

Nice subtle hidden message, W B

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by mgonzo2u

Nice subtle hidden message, W B

unless you are retarded, that isn't very subtle. you don't bold subtle things

[yakman]

My bet is they are trying to cash in on the new DUD players that just came out from under the tree.

[TheTenth]

maybe they're doing BOGOs to empty their stock? they quite know they've already lost and they want to get rid of those reds ...