Will BR and HDDVD never take off due to downloads?

[baccusboy]

I just saw my first XVID download. No, it's not full-resolution 1080p. It isn't even 720p. It's a bit lower than that. I pipe it out of my computer via VGA into my 42" LCD TV, and it looks pretty darned good. The laptop sizes it perfectly, and it plays cleanly. No, it's not HD, but it looks better than a regular DVD. The audio is 5.1 (not the best out there, but still sounds very good). More than acceptable, and it filled out my entire screen (no black bars) Total size: under a few gig (half the size of a DVD).

Yeah, I know, I know you... it's not in high definition. Better quality is available by Bluray... but at what cost to the consumer?

Downloading of movies (and paying for them) has never been something I was interested in. I just head out and rent them. But for now, it's impossible for me to even rent Bluray (I live in Korea). I can buy a few titles (mostly imported) but they are expensive.

Korea has launched this:

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/ht...703300031.html

I hear the quality is pretty good (I am anxious to see it for myself). The movies are coming out soon after they hit the theater (it says).

I have no idea what the cost is. Probably not a lot. Currently, there are pay services in Korea to download movies for as low as $1 per movie -- in an XVID-type format -- and they download in under 10 minutes.

This all makes me wonder.... will Bluray get a chance to really grab ahold of the consumer market? Will consumers be able to live with DVDs long enough (and because BR and HDDVD are too expensive to bother upgrading) until downloading takes over?

I'm curious about your thoughts? The average consumer is not always interested in the best quality... VHS beat Beta...

The XVID honestly looked good enough for me, and I was a TV producer. What will the average consumer choose, if they are faced with high BR and/or HDDVD costs for too long? Will downloading do an end-run around these formats? Will Apple TV, or a MS-compatible equivalent become hot before prices come down enough on BR/HDDVD to interest the average consumer?

It's already happening here... (possibly, if it looks good)