Will BR and HDDVD never take off due to downloads?

[blitz6speed]

Considering that most movie buyers like to collect movies, the fact that broadband is still nowhere near any decent penetration, and the fact that nowhere near enough HDTV's have been sold, ONTOP of the fact that you need your PC connected to your TV running the proper res and all that fun stuff that 90% of people out there wouldnt figure out if their lives depended on it, no, i do not forsee this as an issue what so ever. Maybe in 5-10 years, and if even then.

[buckshot]

i'm one of those people who still needs a physical product. I buy cds and vinyl still. the only albums i've ever downloaded are ones that I could only find imported for 2x the usual cost. I haven't bought any movies online for download and the only tv shows i've downloaded I did because the dvds weren't out yet.

i'll keep my BD, cds, and vinyl.

[ZX-VETTE]

Originally Posted by buckshot

i'm one of those people who still needs a physical product. I buy cds and vinyl still. the only albums i've ever downloaded are ones that I could only find imported for 2x the usual cost. I haven't bought any movies online for download and the only tv shows i've downloaded I did because the dvds weren't out yet.

i'll keep my BD, cds, and vinyl.

I agree. The majority of people still like the experience of going to a store and actually picking up a physical product.

[pbnbcr]

Originally Posted by buckshot

i'm one of those people who still needs a physical product. I buy cds and vinyl still. the only albums i've ever downloaded are ones that I could only find imported for 2x the usual cost. I haven't bought any movies online for download and the only tv shows i've downloaded I did because the dvds weren't out yet.

i'll keep my BD, cds, and vinyl.

I think this is one of the reasons that BluRay will take off (I'd argue it already has). I, too, am one of those people who like to have a tangible product. I think there are still enough people out there, as well, who don't really want to mess with a computer but still want a good picture (I know, I know, there are few of those people left, but I still see them every week). I do think, however, that whenever BluRay reaches its end in some years down the road, then optical will be done and downloads will be in. This next generation is all about the downloads.

[ra1024]

I think the download service will take off but only for rentals. My newphew has a 360 and he says the movies start right away so there's no waiting to start watching and he hasn't had any problems with the stream stopping during playback.

Now that would be great for movie night at home but there's no way I would rather dl and save a film to my hd for a purchase. There's too much convenience you would have to sacrifice to go that route.

For a new technology to take off, it generally has to make things better for the masses to adopt it and change their ways. There is really no benefit to the dl service for people to make that choice. Dvds were a big improvement in quality over vhs, there was no rewinding, you could jump to points in the movie, you could freeze the picture without distortion, etc.. Once you used one, you never wanted to go back.

With movie downloads, you lose a lot of flexibility and I see no advantage that makes people want to use them in place of media. Now for rentals, there is a huge advantage since you don't have to drive or wait for the mail to come and there's no real downside. That's why I think the dl's will change the rental market but have no effect on the media market.

[HDJK]

Originally Posted by ra1024

With movie downloads, you lose a lot of flexibility and I see no advantage that makes people want to use them in place of media. Now for rentals, there is a huge advantage since you don't have to drive or wait for the mail to come and there's no real downside. That's why I think the dl's will change the rental market but have no effect on the media market.

I agree 100%

[The Big Blue]

How many Barnes and Nobels & Borders did you guys drive by on your way to work this morning?

[Jaren613]

Someone with hundreds of movies on their HDD will have it crash on them and then what?

[Blu Tiger]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Considering that most movie buyers like to collect movies...

Exactly, a download movie isn't really tangible. I like owning an actual movie disc in a case. Then you actually have something to show for your money. I'd stop collecting if the only way to purchase movies was by downloading them.

[KenThompson]

I had over 1200 songs on my last computer and it went bye bye. I paid. on average .99 per song. So thats a fair bit of green. Should have just bought the cds,I'd still have my music. I did not replace the music btw. Thats why I want the disc in my hands and not on a hard drive.

[GasCat]

Those who rent will like downloads, those who buy will not.

[theknub]

Originally Posted by GasCat

Those who rent will like downloads, those who buy will not.

not if it takes you five hours to download a movie when it take 20 mins to go down to BB and rent

frankly, as has been stated many times on here, internet speeds just aren't up to task for hi-def content yet

[theknub]

and where is it then?

[HDTV1080P]

It is possible in 5 years one might be able to purchase a BLU-RAY movie online and download a 50GB disc. Then in 5+ years if Internet speeds are 100Mbs a second then download to burn on BLU-RAY would become a reality.

[Blue]

This is just like MP3 a great convenience option. For viewing on a small screen Great. So for a "personal" player as in personal audio it will be great. If you are sitting down to listen to music with a serious "Stereo" you don't automatically go for a very compressed MP3. It will have it's place in complimentary way not as a competitor.

[baccusboy]

In all fairness, you guys are talking about 1080p downloads.

The vast majority of consumers won't need 1080p downloads. As I mentioned in my original post, I watched an XVID file that was around 1.5 gig or so for 1 1/2 hours. The quality was not 1080i or p, but it was better than a DVD, and filled up the entire area of my 42" 1080P LCD display.

These are the types of videos that will be downloaded.

People like us picked Betamax over VHS. The average Joe who doesn't care about seeing every little hair on Hugh Jackman's head picked VHS 30 years ago. Even that XVID will look great to the average person. If downloads become as cheap as they are here (about $1 per movie) and available instantaneously through a box, such as Apple TV, who needs to own the disc? Remember... with these type of boxes, you don't need to wait for the entire download to finish. It starts playing from the beginning, and downloads as it goes.

Only collectors will have a need or a desire to own. And you can be certain that avenue will be open as well.

Even more interesting, as that link I posted shows, they have movies available that are recently out of theaters (a few that are in them!). Not sure what they charge for the newest releases, though.

[Blackraven]

Give me cheap and easy access to Gbps internet speeds as well as cheaper + faster higher capacity storage before we even talk about massive downloads.

EDIT:
From where I live, you're even lucky to have broadband. Right now, I'm using a 768 kbps connection which for people in this country is a luxury (even if I still think it's too damn slow).

At these speeds, it would take you eight full days (running 24 hrs nonstop) to even download all 26 episodes of My-Otome (and these don't have english dub tracks yet). If these come from DVD volume extracts (NTSC 480), I'd say it would take twelve to fifteen days total.

I had a really good read on this, very detail, and very useful information.
Thanks.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by KenThompson

I had over 1200 songs on my last computer and it went bye bye. I paid. on average .99 per song. So thats a fair bit of green. Should have just bought the cds,I'd still have my music. I did not replace the music btw. Thats why I want the disc in my hands and not on a hard drive.

That's a key aspect.

People always seem to think about the issues of downloading and time that will take. Really, that is unimportant if people stop thinking about it like going out and picking up a disc.

Consider that the new release is always the key for all formats, and realize you could already have it downloaded days before it is released (and unlocked for you). So, really NEGATIVE download time.

The key aspect is KEEPING what you paid for. How do you back it up? What happens when you want to change the player or the media box? Can you recover it for free if the hard drive crashes?

At this point the entire download concept is better suited to rental, where there is zero expectation of maintaining possession for long periods of time. The top-N titles of your Netflix queue are maintained on the box, and they are generally already there when you want to watch a title.

Gary

[jorg]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

That's a key aspect.

People always seem to think about the issues of downloading and time that will take. Really, that is unimportant if people stop thinking about it like going out and picking up a disc.

Consider that the new release is always the key for all formats, and realize you could already have it downloaded days before it is released (and unlocked for you). So, really NEGATIVE download time.

The key aspect is KEEPING what you paid for. How do you back it up? What happens when you want to change the player or the media box? Can you recover it for free if the hard drive crashes?

At this point the entire download concept is better suited to rental, where there is zero expectation of maintaining possession for long periods of time. The top-N titles of your Netflix queue are maintained on the box, and they are generally already there when you want to watch a title.

Gary

i see what your saying but what if one day u say"i wanna see the original matrix movie agein" or nay other movie that is 1 week plus old. and alot of videos u can donwload are infected with drm to the point were u can`t even burn a copy to back up. 1080p movie downloads will be hear when blu-rays life is at its end(around 13 years)