Is Toshiba fighting a personal war, and not a format war?

[tron3]

Look at the facts. Earlier in the war blu-ray had a comfortable 2:1 lead over HD DVD. Christmas time showed even more support for blu-ray, and things have become ridiculously good for blu-ray since the Warner announcement in early January to become blu-sclusive.

Now we have a 80/20 split in the format war. These are not mutally exclusive formats where each can sell independantly of each other. Suppose a fish market opens next to a vegetable stand. How much business does the vegetable stand loose? "That's a stupid question. They are mutually exclusive businesses." Exactly my point.

Blu-ray and HD DVD are not mutually exclusive markets. It's not like DVD and CD. These are both high def movie formats. Yet, in the light of the Warner defection to blu-sclusive, we all look at the Toshiba giant and watch it wobble on it's last leg. Fall, damn it, fall! Why doesn't this thing just fall and die? You have to wonder.

In short, I believe Toshiba is going to fight this war as long as there is studio support - period. It may come down to just one studio. Perhaps Universal, and I think Toshiba will not give it up. Why? Because they can.

You wonder why is Toshiba going against all good business logic and still persuing HD DVD? It's bad business for them, bad for their stock holders, bad for their image, and certainly bad for the consumers. So why does it continue? It has become personal. A single CEO is going to do serious financial damage to an otherwise brilliant corporation for the sake of payback to his ego. Millions will be lost because one person with power likes the lesser format.

Even Microsoft has quitely backed away and just shifted focus to downloads. They know a dying market when they see it. Why not Toshiba? It's personal. It's time to fire the person responsible for this mess. It was a good fight Toshiba. You had a good product idea, a good concept, and it was cheaper in every sense of the word. But you failed to look to the future as you are now.

Toshiba, you alone are standing in the way of a multi-billion dollar industry in which even you can share. Your petty parting shots does not amuse us. Stop making this personal.

[Go Blu]

I think what it boils down to is that there are just too many resources and money commited already to just throw the towel in for them.

They made a half hearted attempt and never went all in so to speak.

Our friends at Sony took a much bigger gamble in the PS3 and it was worth the risk.

[Beta Man]

They also sell more than just HD DVD hardware, their public image would be destroyed if they just gave up. They still need to sell camcorders, TVs, and toasters.

[HighDefChief]

You wonder why is Toshiba going against all good business logic and still persuing HD DVD?

How is it bad business logic for Toshiba to sell their own product?

"ohh Honda why do you go against good business logic and sell your own cars instead of Fords"

Companies don't become as large as Toshiba by completely ending a products life span because fanboys on a online forum want it.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Go Blu

I think what it boils down to is that there are just too many resources and money commited already to just throw the towel in for them.

...

Listen to me, their accountants can write all of that off as a loss. This "in for a penny, in for a pound" nonsense is just that.

With BILLIONS at stake they rather bury the treasure chest than open it. In time we will forgive Toshiba and it will be business as usual. The BetaMax / VHS war was forever egg on the face of Sony, but look at them now.

People are fickle. We love a politician one day, and hate them in an election year. They tell us new lies with new promises and we forget what they had done wrong and re-elect them. We just don't learn from experience.

"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Dark Helmet / Space Balls

[tron3]

Originally Posted by HighDefChief

How is it bad business logic for Toshiba to sell their own product?

"ohh Honda why do you go against good business logic and sell your own cars instead of Fords"

Companies don't become as large as Toshiba by completely ending a products life span because fanboys on a online forum want it.

<slaps the red kool-aid out of your hand.>

Exactly, But Honda sells a car that uses the same gasoline fuel as Ford and every other car maker in Detroit.

Competition is good for business when you are competing for the same market. DVD is mainstream, blu-ray is High Def mainstream, and HD DVD throws off the market because they still running on steam - not gas.

[york weir]

HDM is outpacing DVD at the same point in their lifecycles, how is Toshiba standing in the way at this point?

70% of the studios decided they want us to buy Blu-ray, the consumers will follow and all will resolve itself.

[JimPullan]

Excellent inital post and the follow-up postings so far. I'd like to make a couple points as well. First, even a CEO or a Chairman of the Board of Directors is accountable to the entire Board of Directors and more importantly, the share holders. Corporate profits have deminished by 25%, share value is dropping, not solely from HD DVD, but other factors as well caused the declines. Toshiba is still a major corporation with many vested interests in technologies, not soley HD DVD. I am confident they do understand the format war is winding down and they must gracefully exit, yielding to the new high definition standard, known as Blu-ray Disc. I truly expect the two remaining studios, once their contractural agreements are fulfilled, to go where the dollars are . . . Blu-ray Disc Movies. This is a no brainer. We, the early adopters and forum members here are often impatient and want immediate results. I can sense the frustration in Tron3, his original post, and I too share those feelings from time to time. But one thing I'm confident about is Blu-ray Disc has won the war, it's obvious, and we now, must be patient as the end game is played out, even if it takes to May or beyond. It will certainly conclude this year! You can be certain that as we enter into this next holiday season, all will be Blue, no more consumer confusion, prices affordable to the masses. This is my vision, and is my opinion. [Jim]

[GaS]

I don't think there is a chance in hell of the studios allowing one stubborn CE vendor to bring down their entire next-gen income stream. Universal and paramount will release on BD sooner rather than later.

[JTK]

Yes. It's personal and irrational against Sony. I think we've all know this for at least two years now.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by york weir

HDM is outpacing DVD at the same point in their lifecycles, how is Toshiba standing in the way at this point?

70% of the studios decided they want us to buy Blu-ray, the consumers will follow and all will resolve itself.

I defer to my previous statement, Toshiba will push HD DVD as long as there is studio support. The mere exisitence creates market confusion because people still see them as contenders. Granted, not like when they had Warner support but most people extropolate the truth from their perceptions when they don't know what is going on. We are the fan boys because we are here all the time. We know what is happening within minutes of CNN posting a new story. We follow and worship the insiders here. We are the minority.

Most people will see HD DVD and assume the war is strong based on perception. Live and let live is a great concept for people, but this is business. Sony extended the olive branch to Toshiba and wanted to make peace. Wanted to convince them to go blu-ray and everyone will be happy. Toshiba ate the olive branch and shat out HD DVD. They started the war and I'm no longer concerned with them saving face. They had their chance.

Blu-ray was the more "future proof" choice. Everyone knew it. Look at my join date. I have followed this war a LONG time. I swear I recall reading HD DVD was a 720p format. That is what Toshiba was going to give consumers for the next few decades until blu-ray heated things up. Suddenly, dual layer and super compression and 1080i comes into play.

Toshiba took the "good enough" approach. They are not artisans of fine technology like Sony. Yes, Sony hasn't done all things right in terms of sharing the market, but their stuff tends to be extremely well built.

In some ways I am still very much a Panasonic man, so don't think I am just a Sony fanboy.

[Blaumann]

Originally Posted by tron3

[...]

Toshiba, you alone are standing in the way of a multi-billion dollar industry in which even you can share. Your petty parting shots does not amuse us. Stop making this personal.

tron3,
is there just one example from any of the former format wars, where the "losing" format gave any sort of formal "we give up" statement? Just one?

Here are a few format wars:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Format_war

I think they just fade out of the market, after fighting back for as long as they can.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Blaumann

tron3,
is there just one example from any of the former format wars, where the "losing" format gave any sort of formal "we give up" statement? Just one?
...

I think they just fade out of the market, after fighting back for as long as they can.

You are correct, they tend to quietly go in the night. But Toshiba hasn't been quite since they cancelled showing their face at CES. Probably out of humiliation. They have since started running amok again and picked up the pace. Does THIS sound like HD DVD is fading?

[Blaumann]

Originally Posted by tron3

You are correct, they tend to quietly go in the night. But Toshiba hasn't been quite since they cancelled showing their face at CES. Probably out of humiliation. They have since started running amok again and picked up the pace. Does THIS sound like HD DVD is fading?

No, they are not fading yet. They are still trying to "fight back" i am sure. Imo Uni&Paramount need to go blu to stop the war completely. Toshiba will not back down, as long as they have some exclusive content. I think they will even keep it up, if Uni&Paramount just went purple.

These are corporations, not human beings. I think if i would have taken a beating like Toshiba, i think i would probably quit. But a corporation is not a human being, they have their business plans, strategies, goals, managers, etc. It might be personal for a few, maybe they want to save face. But i think it is simply business as usual: were our goals met yet/no; WB has gone blu, what are our options now? etc. bla bla.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Blaumann

... It might be personal for a few, maybe they want to save face. But i think it is simply business as usual: were our goals met yet/no; WB has gone blu, what are our options now? etc. bla bla.

Too late to save face. Already said how Toshiba turned down Sony's Olive branch. Which they extended a couple of times! When the race was nearly neck and neck you could not blame HD DVD for staying in the running. They had a real chance. When I heard Microsoft was in the picture I lost a little confidence because I know how brilliantly MS controls their own market. Alas, I was only shaken and not stired like a cocktail of red kool-aid.

Hey, if Toshiba wants to "live free and die hard" until May 2008, that is their choice. While I fully expect Paramount and Universal to go neutral, I don't think that is a wise move.

Some consumers will buy anything and don't care if the market changes. They are not stupid, just trusting souls who believe "this new technology will stay a long time." Probably the same people who didn't do their homework in high school, either.

Everyone expects blu-ray to win this year. Even with neutral support of the last two studios, that would be true. But it doesn't make HD DVD the loser, just less successful.

While retailers can greatly influence the war by not stocking HD DVD, ultimately the studios provide the content. They should phase out HD DVD by year end.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by york weir

HDM is outpacing DVD at the same point in their lifecycles, how is Toshiba standing in the way at this point?

That's a red herring. If we had one and only one Hi def format being marketed, consumer hesitation about picking the losing format would disappear and adoption would be even faster.

[Blaumann]

Originally Posted by tron3

Too late to save face. Already said how Toshiba turned down Sony's Olive branch. Which they extended a couple of times! When the race was nearly neck and neck you could not blame HD DVD for staying in the running. They had a real chance. When I heard Microsoft was in the picture I lost a little confidence because I know how brilliantly MS controls their own market. Alas, I was only shaken and not stired like a cocktail of red kool-aid.

.....

I meant "saving face" in a "once the samuraii has chosen a path, he will walk on it to the end" kinda way. They can´t stop, because they might lose face otherwise.

I agree that the studios can and should end this war, it´s about their movies after all.

[plee]

Originally Posted by tron3

You are correct, they tend to quietly go in the night. But Toshiba hasn't been quite since they cancelled showing their face at CES. Probably out of humiliation. They have since started running amok again and picked up the pace. Does THIS sound like HD DVD is fading?

What do you mean by not fading? Other than fanboy supporters, they have been very quiet and have not made too many annoucements, other than responses to "x now supporting Blu". The superbowl thing was paid and scheduled last year so throw that out and you have pretty much nothing...

[tron3]

Originally Posted by plee

What do you mean by not fading? Other than fanboy supporters, they have been very quiet and have not made too many annoucements, other than responses to "x now supporting Blu". The superbowl thing was paid and scheduled last year so throw that out and you have pretty much nothing...

I don't know if air time is refundable, but if they really wanted to pull out a superbowl ad would not appear. Sure, they want to clear their stock and they have a right to. I just find it unethical to dump it on a somewhat unsuspecting consumer. Remember, not everyone knows what is going on.

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

They also sell more than just HD DVD hardware, their public image would be destroyed if they just gave up. They still need to sell camcorders, TVs, and toasters.

they also sells kettle to make the water boil to fix their HD DVD combo discs