HD DVD already doomed?

[Odium69]

Now that i caught your attention with my positive headline id like some extra input on a discussion i had tonight. A friend and i were debating on the future of blu ray and hd-dvd, he believes hd-dvd will win the war with there cheaper players because most people wont spend $500+ on Bd players and after i crushed his only ace i brought up the point that so many big companies hardware and film wise are so tied up in blu ray that none of them could afford to let it lose. Toshiba, universal, and Microsoft are the only companies i know of to be hd-dvd exclusive, thats 3 versus everyone that supports blu ray exclusively. I know many companies are neutral but even now we see the wheels turning in companies becoming bd only. Does my argument have any merit when it comes to this point? Thanks i just needed to vent