Will blu-ray be successful? - Blu-ray Forum

AlexKx · 01-21-2006, 04:53 PM

What do you all say to the people who say that neither blu-ray or HD-DVD will be successful because people are going to get their films, music, and video games from the internet in the future instead?

Blue · 01-21-2006, 07:09 PM

Pleas Note all observations below are from Australia - however I suspect to many countries including the US.
Many places in Australia can't even get 256Kb broadband (all th city areas can), I think HD is around 12Mb/s. So for many people they will miss out.

Although cable has been around for many years - it seems it's biggest popularity is for live sports events and owners of Cable still buy DVD's (sure cable is not movies on demand).

There is also way too much "firepower" behind blu ray - that's why I think it will prevail.

The computer market is demanding better backup and storage. Sure flash or holographic storge may fill that slot one day - but both are in reality a number of years before becoming a common item in the market place for mass backup.

zombie · 01-21-2006, 10:31 PM

People can get a lot of music from online but yet many, including myself, still choose to buy CDs. Downloading movies takes much longer even with high speed internet service. Above all though, people like to own things that they can physically hold in their hands. I believe we'll be using some form of disc for music and movies for many years to come. I have no doubt in my mind that Blu-ray will be a big success for those and other reasons.

AV_Integrated · 01-22-2006, 01:46 AM

I believe that downloads may eventually be a standard, but at this time downloaded movies aren't even close to a reality. There isn't some major push right now to put downloaded videos into people's homes. There is the push by cable TV for On-Demand video. But, this isn't the same at all as downloadable video.

Keep in mind that there are a few things that need to occur before downloadable video really has a chance.

1. It needs to be MORE convenient than getting a disc based movie.
2. It needs to be possible to move the movie from television to television easily if wanted.
3. It needs to be owned by the end user so they can use it as they wish, watch it whenever, wherever they want.
4. It needs to be easily setup and reliable in people's homes.

I don't think any of those items are met right now with downloadable movies. PCs aren't designed around the television, they are designed around the PC monitor. They take a long time to boot up, and they are notoriously unreliable. Confusing to many, and while many have them hooked to televisions, a vast majority does not. They do have a DVD player hooked up though. Just turn on the TV, put a disc in, press play. Very convenient AND reliable. People get it.

I would have to say that I think a well founded concern would be whether or not HD discs will run into the same lack of support that DVD-A and SACD have run into. I personally don't believe that this will happen as HD televisions continue to be sold to more and more people and that HD content demands continue to rise.

Throw in PS3 in a few million homes....

01-21-2006, 04:53 PM	#1
AlexKx Active Member Member since:Jan 2005	Will blu-ray be successful? What do you all say to the people who say that neither blu-ray or HD-DVD will be successful because people are going to get their films, music, and video games from the internet in the future instead?

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01-21-2006, 07:09 PM	#2
Blue Super Moderator Top contributor Member since:Jan 2005 Location:Melbourne Australia Blu-ray collection:206	Pleas Note all observations below are from Australia - however I suspect to many countries including the US. Many places in Australia can't even get 256Kb broadband (all th city areas can), I think HD is around 12Mb/s. So for many people they will miss out. Although cable has been around for many years - it seems it's biggest popularity is for live sports events and owners of Cable still buy DVD's (sure cable is not movies on demand). There is also way too much "firepower" behind blu ray - that's why I think it will prevail. The computer market is demanding better backup and storage. Sure flash or holographic storge may fill that slot one day - but both are in reality a number of years before becoming a common item in the market place for mass backup.

01-21-2006, 10:31 PM	#3
zombie Blu-ray Guru Top contributor Member since:May 2004 Trading Score:864	People can get a lot of music from online but yet many, including myself, still choose to buy CDs. Downloading movies takes much longer even with high speed internet service. Above all though, people like to own things that they can physically hold in their hands. I believe we'll be using some form of disc for music and movies for many years to come. I have no doubt in my mind that Blu-ray will be a big success for those and other reasons.

01-22-2006, 01:46 AM	#4
AV_Integrated Senior Member Member since:Jan 2005	I believe that downloads may eventually be a standard, but at this time downloaded movies aren't even close to a reality. There isn't some major push right now to put downloaded videos into people's homes. There is the push by cable TV for On-Demand video. But, this isn't the same at all as downloadable video. Keep in mind that there are a few things that need to occur before downloadable video really has a chance. 1. It needs to be MORE convenient than getting a disc based movie. 2. It needs to be possible to move the movie from television to television easily if wanted. 3. It needs to be owned by the end user so they can use it as they wish, watch it whenever, wherever they want. 4. It needs to be easily setup and reliable in people's homes. I don't think any of those items are met right now with downloadable movies. PCs aren't designed around the television, they are designed around the PC monitor. They take a long time to boot up, and they are notoriously unreliable. Confusing to many, and while many have them hooked to televisions, a vast majority does not. They do have a DVD player hooked up though. Just turn on the TV, put a disc in, press play. Very convenient AND reliable. People get it. I would have to say that I think a well founded concern would be whether or not HD discs will run into the same lack of support that DVD-A and SACD have run into. I personally don't believe that this will happen as HD televisions continue to be sold to more and more people and that HD content demands continue to rise. Throw in PS3 in a few million homes....

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