So... Microsoft is trying to buy out the war!

[BTBuck1]

From The Digital Bits today:
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

We've got a couple of interesting updates for you this afternoon...

First, in the aftermath of yesterday's DreamWorks news, our old friend Pete Bracke over at High-Def Digest contacted longtime Spielberg spokesman and DreamWorks marketing exec Marvin Levy, who had this to say:

"It was important to Steven that if any of his films were to be released [first] on high-definition, that it would be a classic," said Levy. "Steven is big supporter of Blu-ray, and chose 'Close Encounters' to be the first of his films on either format."

Levy further confirmed that none of Spielberg's films are included in the deal Paramount and DreamWorks made with Microsoft. Click on the link (above) for the complete story.

You know, we're always hearing "Let the consumer decide!" when it comes to this format war. So once again, we'd like to suggest that all you consumers out there weigh in with your opinions. Make your thoughts on Paramount and DreamWorks' decision yesterday known to them. Tell the studios that you think this format war is ridiculous. While you're at it, some of you might want to express to Warner your desire for them to stay format neutral in the face of pressure (and money) from Microsoft, which we hear is definitely being applied today at the studio. You can find contact information for all these studios on our Links page. Remember, though, that whether you call or send postcards and letters (the latter is always much more effective than e-mail), we would STRONGLY suggest that you be polite and professional at all times. Let the consumer decide indeed.

Stay tuned...

Wow, is all I can say..

Discuss,
Brian

[theknub]

first, have an email by chance? i already sent to the currently listed ones, but don't have one for the site.

[monkyman]

Lets hope 300's sucess on BD will prevent any kind of move from Warner, but execs are greedy and enough money in there pockets could change there minds as we've seen.

[theknub]

all right, i sent a bunch of emails earlier... i couldn't find an "official" address, but here is what i used

brenda_ciccone@paramount.com
brad_grey@paramount.com
Thomas_Lesinski@paramount.com
kelley_avery@paramount.com
mark_baddagliacca@paramount.com
andrew_cripps@paramount.com
frederick_huntsberry@paramount.com
john_lesher@paramount.com
rob_moore@paramount.com
hal_richardson@paramount.com
brad_weston@paramount.com
stacy_snider@paramount.com

of course, the CEO and a few other ones are full

[Blu-Light]

I guess it was only a matter of time for MS to try to pull warner back into the HD-DUD exclusive camp.

If they are successful then I would be really concerned for the survival of blu-ray int he long term.

[monkyman]

What would microsoft do if they helped HD-DVD win? then they would have to crush it.

[moweeis]

By having a worse format win it will be more of an improvement to the consumer when they launch their downloadable HD content

[Blu-Light]

I also believe that all blu-ray supporters should be prepared for this to occur given WBs history with Hd-DUD releases and blu-ray releases. Maybe it won't kill blu-ray but it will be very, VERY hard to overcome the loss over the next year or two and establish the format as the dominate high-def disc platform.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Blu-Light

I also believe that all blu-ray supporters should be prepared for this to occur given WBs history with Hd-DUD releases and blu-ray releases. Maybe it won't kill blu-ray but it will be very, VERY hard to overcome the loss over the next year or two and establish the format as the dominate high-def disc platform.

This wouldn't neccessarily Kill BD, but if anyone else (FOX or BV) sold out, it'd be game over.

It would however lead to a 50/50 split in which we'd have to have combo players to survive (HDM vs. DVD & crap HD downloads). Samsung and LG would kick everyones ass in player sales, and Sony & Toshiba would have a serious dilema on their hands.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by BTBuck1

This wouldn't neccessarily Kill BD, but if anyone else (FOX or BV) sold out, it'd be game over.

It would however lead to a 50/50 split in which we'd have to have combo players to survive (HDM vs. DVD & crap HD downloads). Samsung and LG would kick everyones ass in player sales, and Sony & Toshiba would have a serious dilema on their hands.

Yes, all studios being exclusive one way or the other and combo players being the norm is at least a stable outcome of sorts. Each studio would then just release on whichever format best meets their preferences, e.g. if they want improved anti-piracy measures and/or region coding, they would still choose Blu-ray.

What I can't understand is people who talk about combo players together with studios being neutral. What would be the point of that - why would any studio release on multiple formats if everyone has a combo player.

[bluflu]

Microsoft knows HD DVD can't win, their plan is to drag things out.

[Fozziwig]

Probability of Time Warner caving to a MS bribe = 60%

If that happens, probability of HD disc failing to ever achieve mass market status = 85%

I'm mystified as to why the price of wrecking billions of dollars of future revenue and handing the future of HD movie distribution to a computer software company is only a few hundred million. I'd be asking for much more.

MS must be rubbing their hands with glee. They are an ace away from buying Hollywood for a song.

It's a funny old world.

[theknub]

90% of all statistics are made up on the spot...

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

Probability of Time Warner caving to a MS bribe = 60%

If that happens, probability of HD disc failing to ever achieve mass market status = 85%

I'm mystified as to why the price of wrecking billions of dollars of future revenue and handing the future of HD movie distribution to a computer software company is only a few hundred million. I'd be asking for much more.

MS must be rubbing their hands with glee. They are an ace away from buying Hollywood for a song.

It's a funny old world.

Nice post.

I agree with your numbers too.

[JTK]

Folks, this is how MS plays ball, especially when they're losing. They open the wallet and they'll do whatever it takes.

I guess the home theater market is going to have to learn the hard way the lessons of what MS is about and how they work. The PC market knows it all too well for the past 30 years.

Like I've said before: Warner going HD-DVD exclusive probably wouldn't have surprised many if that had been the big news yesterday. Paramount was a surprise (to non insiders.)


So I certainly won't panic on a rumor or anything, but if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive, I'd see it as them ending a pretense anyways. It will not surprise me if it happens and possibly soon. I certainly think there's better than 50/50 chance that Warner takes the MS bribe like Paramount did.

Obviously that move would create a true format war schism and would probably set us all up for SACD vs. DVD-A II.

[RunsWthScissors]

In the interest of full disclosure let me start by saying that I am a Blu-Ray supporter. I purchased a PS3 (which complements my Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii nicely btw) for the purpose of playing games but I have found more use for it as a high-def player in recent months as the Playstation3 titles come closer to completion.

My purpose in commenting here is not to support one format over another but rather to draw attention to what I believe is the true motivation behind Microsoft’s recent move to woo Paramount into the HD-DVD camp.

MICROSOFT DOES NOT SUPPORT HD-DVD. Sure Microsoft provides an add-on allowing consumers to view HD-DVD’s using their Xbox consoles but their true goal is to destroy high definition DVD’s on both formats. Why? Microsoft has long stated their opposition to physical media in favor of downloadable content. Their Live Marketplace has proven to be an effective method for providing content (including high-def) directly to consumers allowing Microsoft to reap the rewards/profits.

Microsoft has also announced plans to bring PC owners into the fold by offering Games for Windows which, with a subscription to their Live service, will allow PC gamers to interact with Xbox 360 users. Naturally the Live service for PC users will include access to the wildly successful Live Marketplace and access to downloadable content.

Even non-gamers are considered in Microsoft’s plans. Media Center, and other similar operating systems, is designed to centralize control and access of all your media and content to a PC. These users will no doubt also be granted access to the Live Marketplace and high-def content available for download.

Microsoft’s true agenda is to prolong the high-def format war until consumers give up on high-def altogether preferring to stay with the easy to understand DVD format. At that point Microsoft will be left with little or no competition with regards to providing high-def content to consumers via Live Marketplace.

Consider what Microsoft has to gain. If HD-DVD wins out they will stand to sell some additional HD-DVD add-on players to Xbox 360 owners. Consumers with no interest in games will not spend money on an Xbox 360 AND HD-DVD add-on player opting for a stand-alone player instead. Microsoft will continue to reap some profits from the downloadable content via Live but the majority of the HD-DVD profits will go to studios from the sales of media. If Blu-Ray wins Microsoft won’t be able to sell their HD-DVD add-ons and may or may not opt to produce a Blu-Ray version instead while the profits from the Live Marketplace will remain about the same.

If neither format wins Microsoft will stand to make huge profits being one of the only, if not the only source for high-def content via downloads. They will be able to negotiate their own terms with the studios and cut themselves in on the insane profits earned from media sales which they currently are left out of. $150M is a drop in the bucket compared to the profits made by studios on DVD and high-def DVD sales and this payoff was just the ante to get Microsoft into the game.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by JTK

Folks, this is how MS plays ball, especially when they're losing. They open the wallet and they'll do whatever it takes.

I guess the home theater market is going to have to learn the hard way the lessons of what MS is about and how they work. The PC market knows it all too well for the past 30 years.

Like I've said before: Warner going HD-DVD exclusive probably wouldn't have surprised many if that had been the big news yesterday. Paramount was a surprise (to non insiders.)


So I certainly won't panic on a rumor or anything, but if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive, I'd see it as them ending a pretense anyways. It will not surprise me if it happens and possibly soon. I certainly think there's better than 50/50 chance that Warner takes the MS bribe like Paramount did.

Obviously that move would create a true format war schism and would probably set us all up for SACD vs. DVD-A II.

Agreed 100%

[Blu-Light]

Call me paranoid but I am beginning to think that Fox released their fall release lineup not to counter what Paramount just did but to try to head off what we are about to get in the next week with a defection by Warner to go HD-DUD exclusive.

Here is another thought:

This was all planned out by Warner and Paramount well before we got to this point. They were both HD-DUD exclusive in the beginning. Why not put on a facade for a year to have the most impact of going back to HD-DUD exclusive when it mattered most to the war. And as a bonus they get these big money kick backs from MS and crew in the process. At this point I would not put it past either.

[oldmike]

yep why dose no one under stand this but us i dont get it

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Blu-Light

Call me paranoid but I am beginning to think that Fox released their fall release lineup not to counter what Paramount just did but to try to head off what we are about to get in the next week with a defection by Warner to go HD-DUD exclusive.

Here is another thought:

This was all planned out by Warner and Paramount well before we got to this point. They were both HD-DUD exclusive in the beginning. Why not put on a facade for a year to have the most impact of going back to HD-DUD exclusive when it mattered most to the war. And as a bonus they get these big money kick backs from MS and crew in the process. At this point I would not put it past either.

Hopefully you overthought this.