What's the end-game going to look like?

[What'sHD]

Back in the day when the only hd-dvd exclusive was Universal, we were confident that this holiday season would end the war. How/why did you guys see that happening? I understood that the factors were:

1. Massive PS3 sales + Cheaper BD players

2. Glut of day and date releases with massive sales thanks to installed base

How was this going to end the war? Was it that it would lead to Universal realizing that BD was the s*** and going neutral cos of lost sales? I ask cos all the above factors can/will still come true this holiday season and the same decision will be faced by Uni and now Para.


Even if they do go/would have gone neutral, how would that have led to the end for hd-dvd?

1. Studios stop releasing hd-dvds? - unlikely

2. Toshiba stops making players? - very unlikely

3. People stop buying hd-dvd players since everything is on BD? - plausible but not a slam dunk


So, in essence, what is the end-game?


P.S. Imo, if studios stop releasing on hd-dvd, it is still unfair to hd-dvd buyers, even if given clear warning (on that issue, Para has conducted itself pathetically, all for the sake of creating maximum panic and "impact" on the war. Ironically, it has created terrible publicity for them. Good going, BDA.)


P.P.S. IF scenario 3 comes true after (IF) all studios start releasing on BD, it will take quite some time until the stage is reached where BD to hd-dvd sales are so disparate that the studios can then, without disgrace, make a good, reasonable economic argument for discontinuing hd-dvd.

Looking at it in this light, the war was not going to end in any meaningful sense until at least end 2008 or later. Even if people had stopped buying hd-dvd players from march 2008 (say), to get a 10:1 ratio (big enough disparity) of effective players out there would have taken quite some time.

Perhaps some of this calculation was done by Para and thus, the 150M is just gravy plus they get to sell their titles on BD anyways in the end cos no matter what, PS3s will always have a BD players and that is a ready made market.


Welcome your opinions.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

P.S. Imo, if studios stop releasing on hd-dvd, it is still unfair to hd-dvd buyers, even if given clear warning (on that issue, Para has conducted itself pathetically, all for the sake of creating maximum panic and "impact" on the war. Ironically, it has created terrible publicity for them. Good going, BDA.)

I'm not going to make any predictions as to the endgame, but you bring up a very good point. Robert Smith has pointed out in a very thought-provoking article that when a company no longer produces a product for some of their customes, they usually do it in a nice, graceful way (sort of like saying "thank you for your support all these years"), and how the Para situation is so unusual:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/smith082607.htm

In fact, people who bought Blu-ray players thinking they can buy Para movies were rudely told to go away. This includes the ones they themselves were advertising and promoting as coming soon (e.g., Blades of Glory). These shiny new BD's are now sitting in some warehouse waiting to be destroyed.

Jerks.

stupid
gandalf

[MOONPHASE]

Blades of Glory comes out Tuesday why not just wait till that comes out then go hd-dvd exclusive stupid paramount but then again them going exclusive to hd-dvd is pretty stupid anyways and everyone on here knows that unless you have been asleep for the past week or so.

[secret]

The end game will occur if the Wii chooses one of these formats for movie playback with either an add-on or an upgraded console (if that's even possible) and when computer companies start releasing drives that support only one format.

Watch the HD-DVD camp or Microsoft take note of this and start courting the Wii now. Let's piggy back on the Wii's success, eh? The Wii would be the perfect viral trojan horse for Microsoft and HD-DVD if they can get their claws on it.

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by gand41f

I'm not going to make any predictions as to the endgame, but you bring up a very good point. Robert Smith has pointed out in a very thought-provoking article that when a company no longer produces a product for some of their customes, they usually do it in a nice, graceful way (sort of like saying "thank you for your support all these years"), and how the Para situation is so unusual:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/smith082607.htm

In fact, people who bought Blu-ray players thinking they can buy Para movies were rudely told to go away. This includes the ones they themselves were advertising and promoting as coming soon (e.g., Blades of Glory). These shiny new BD's are now sitting in some warehouse waiting to be destroyed.

Jerks.

stupid
gandalf

I hear you and agree. I had transformers on my list. Now, I have Die Hard

Para, you idiot, you

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by secret

The end game will occur if the Wii chooses one of these formats for movie playback with either an add-on or an upgraded console (if that's even possible) and when computer companies start releasing drives that support only one format.

I doubt the Wii has enough CPU horsepower to decode the advanced audio/video codecs....

enjoy
gandalf

[Stundra]

Originally Posted by gand41f

I doubt the Wii has enough CPU horsepower to decode the advanced audio/video codecs....

enjoy
gandalf

Wouldn't it be possible to build a 3rd party BD-Addon drive and playback software for the XBOX 360?

[WickyWoo]

Wouldn't it be possible to build a 3rd party BD-Addon drive and playback software for the XBOX 360?

Not without MS's OK. Yeah, that'll happen

Wii barely has the horses for DVD, nowhere CLOSE to handing Highdef formats even if it had the video hardware for it.

[Spankey]

The endgame will be dual format players. It seems like the HD-DVD crowd wants to go over video software the way game companies go after licenses. They will pay Paramount or any other studio for exclusivity on their format for a time. As long as their are dual format players in the market, their software will survive and MS won't have to pay royalties for BD discs on their game platform.

[The Guardian]

I thought the Nintendo people were already on the record as thinking both formats were stupid or something to that effect?

It seems that you COULD do an addon for the Wii but it would be almost as expensive as a stand-alone player. It would still be a bit of advertising maybe.

[WickyWoo]

The end game is that the last studio starts releasing in Blu, and the HD releases trickle down to a stop over about 12 months

When you see a neutral studio ship a catalog title on BLu and not HD, you know it's over

[Musashi]

Nintendo's in the console biz for games; they tend to avoid multi-functions like the PlayStations have.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

Back in the day when the only hd-dvd exclusive was Universal, we were confident that this holiday season would end the war. How/why did you guys see that happening? I understood that the factors were:

1. Massive PS3 sales + Cheaper BD players
2. Glut of day and date releases with massive sales thanks to installed base

3. The non-tech public generally taking it for granted that the war was now effectively "over" in the headlines, finally conquering their phobia about Which One to Buy, and rushing out to one-up last year's Christmas present (usually to themselves)--
Or as just a little "necessary" extra splurge to themselves, after that big-screen they got for "somebody else".

How was this going to end the war? Was it that it would lead to Universal realizing that BD was the s*** and going neutral cos of lost sales? I ask cos all the above factors can/will still come true this holiday season and the same decision will be faced by Uni and now Para.

Although, yes, they're still selling UMD's (hey, came as a surprise to me too!), it would make HD significantly harder to find in stores--
And, with fewer updates, give the impression there won't be that many more forthcoming.

IOW, a Beta/UMD "whimper" end, rather than the DiVX "bang" end we were all rooting for.

Even if they do go/would have gone neutral, how would that have led to the end for hd-dvd?

1. Studios stop releasing hd-dvds? - unlikely
2. Toshiba stops making players? - very unlikely
3. People stop buying hd-dvd players since everything is on BD? - plausible but not a slam dunk

Although it sure do help.

So, in essence, what is the end-game?
P.S. Imo, if studios stop releasing on hd-dvd, it is still unfair to hd-dvd buyers, even if given clear warning (on that issue, Para has conducted itself pathetically, all for the sake of creating maximum panic and "impact" on the war. Ironically, it has created terrible publicity for them. Good going, BDA.)

As noted by the earlier "Studios will still probably trickle HD titles out anyway regardless" argument, this illustrates in both directions the concept that our free-market capitalist system grants studios the entreprenurial right to release any of their movies in whatever form they darn well please--
And if it no longer pleases them to follow HD for whatever operating-cost reasons, believe the operative words to the format's buyers are "tough" and "noogies"

Welcome your opinions.

(Just don't whine when you get them.)