Just got reinstated at AVS - any bets on how long before the next suspension?

[PrinceLH]

My latest post at AVS. I have been reinstated for about 1/2 an hour after my third suspension. Here is my latest post, and I'll let you guess how long it'll take for suspension number four:

Originally Posted by PopcornReady
Really, the correct answer will prove to be:

HD DVD will take the lead in Spring 2008.

Sony's Blu-ray format is toast -- barring drastic action no one believes is going to happen (like $199 Blu-ray players from JVC). Sony thought they could use PS3 as a "trojan horse" to drive Blu-ray installations, become the leading game console, and charge a premium across the board. By last winter it was obvious they gambled and lost: PS3 came in considerably below sales targets, lost a HUGE amount, was singled out in the financial reports dragging the entire division deeply into the red, and came in Number 3 in the console game market.

International Sales Rule Number 1: you must be number 1, or number 2; there is no margin in being number 3 in a commodity market. Sony is number 3.

As for Blu-ray, they never quite managed studio dominance, merely an unequal parity: Universal vs Sony, Warner and Paramount in the middle, Fox and MGM kinda sidelined -- and release volumes fairly close. Then Paramount jumped ship, and Fox returned but guess what? Blu-ray found itself second in number of titles and box office. Yes, they maintained a lead in actual unit sales thanks to the PS3 base but not nearly enough to reflect the supposed "installed base lead". By this measure, 2:1 was a disaster in all eyes except the PR department.

Finally consumer acceptance comes with consumer friendly pricing and if its not going to be the discs its gonna hafta be the hardware, right? So Sony strikes a celebrated end-cap deal with Target to sell Sony Blu-ray only players at $499 (check the press release, that's the deal) from Oct 1 through end 2007. Disney goes on a Disney Blu-ray tour of 8 (yes, eight) malls "across America".

Meanwhile Toshiba, and HD DVD, steadily like the turtle, not the hare, push lower hardware prices, more expanded software titles, and broader shelf space in many stores -- for hardware and software. Look at the choice in hardware: Blu-ray has 2 or 3 brands at roughly $499, all with the same features and only Sony can get shelf space universally; HD DVD has 1 brand but three different price points and feature sets (aka choice!) and is equally well represented as Sony. Sure, you can buy Samsung but is it any different than the BDP-S300? And now we have confirmation: HD DVD will deliver a new price point -- under $199 for the "off brand" set.

Give away the razors, sell the blades ... that's why HD DVD disc sales will overcome Blu-ray by the spring.

A final reminder: studios operate out of self-interest, ultimately, and not to a blind devotion to red or blue packaging. Allegiances are defined by bottom line performance -- like Laser Discs and UMD, studios will invest for a while and then settle in where the real future starts paying off today.

The fat lady is about to take centre stage and she won't be humming a Disney tune or whistling while she works. Is that the glint of Transformer breastplates I see on Brunnhilde, a yonder?

There is so much FUD here, I don't know where to begin. I don't have an hour to disect this work of art. Rookie FUDmeisters need to go back to school for a slicker presentation. I guess that you like HD DVD propaganda and don't look at the true software title sales, from week to week. If HD DVD wins one week this year, it'll be a small miracle.

How many demerit points for me this time, admins? I feel like John Spartan, in Demolition Man, getting fined for every opinion that is not HD DVD Politically Correct.
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