BDA strategy analysis

[JAGUAR1977]

Seeing as we are moving into November, and HD-DVD is getting huge publicity from the $200 players, isn't it really about time Blu-ray started to be a little more aggressive on the hardware side, both with significantly cheaper players and 1.1 on PS3.

I realise you can't give specific details, but it would be nice to know there are movements on these fronts, many prospective hi-def owners are in the market and need to see some moves by the Blu-ray camp.

[MrVorhees]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Seeing as we are moving into November, and HD-DVD is getting huge publicity from the $200 players, isn't it really about time Blu-ray started to be a little more aggressive on the hardware side, both with significantly cheaper players and 1.1 on PS3.

I realise you can't give specific details, but it would be nice to know there are movements on these fronts, many prospective hi-def owners are in the market and need to see some moves by the Blu-ray camp.

+1

[blitz6speed]

Guys, seriously, WHO is going to buy those cheap a2s? If you can hardly afford 199 for a HD player, how many discs are you buying a year? Seriously, they are going after a consumer who doesnt exist. One that has a lot of money to buy tons of discs, but doesnt want to pay more then 199 for a player. Give me a break.

[LeoneFan]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Seeing as we are moving into November, and HD-DVD is getting huge publicity from the $200 players, isn't it really about time Blu-ray started to be a little more aggressive on the hardware side, both with significantly cheaper players and 1.1 on PS3.

I realise you can't give specific details, but it would be nice to know there are movements on these fronts, many prospective hi-def owners are in the market and need to see some moves by the Blu-ray camp.

Well, it's almost October 31st and there is still absolutely no reliable news regarding a full featured player or an entry level player under $300 to better compete price wise with HDDVD. This just further shows the general complacent attitude of the BDA. They simply don't seem to care. They are riding the coat tales of the PS3 right now but before you know it the software sales ratio is going to dwindle down to 50:50 and all momentum will be lost. All these companies involved are all talk and no action. Judging by recent events over the last couple of months it's obvious which company WANTS to win the format war, and it sure as hell is not Sony.

With Toshiba's fire sales getting more and more stand-alone players into consumers' homes, it's going to make Warner's decision of going HDDVD exclusive that much more easy. All the while the BDA sits around with their thumbs up their behinds pounding their chest at their perceived dominance with crippled $500 stand-alone players at retail.

[Manco]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Well, it's almost October 31st and there is still absolutely no reliable news regarding a full featured player or an entry level player under $300 to better compete price wise with HDDVD. This just further shows the general complacent attitude of the BDA. They simply don't seem to care.

Let me get this straight.

8 of the largest multi-national corporations totaling nearly 1/2 trilion dollars in total assests. These companies combined have assests that total more than the GNP of most nations on Earth. Each has spent BILLIONS to garner patents on key pieces of technology that make Blu-ray even a technological possibility to begin with.

THEY DON'T SEEM TO CARE???

I'm really confused by this statement.

[LeoneFan]

Originally Posted by Manco

Let me get this straight.

8 of the largest multi-national corporations totaling nearly 1/2 trilion dollars in total assests. These companies combined have assests that total more than the GNP of most nations on Earth. Each has spent BILLIONS to garner patents on key pieces of technology that make Blu-ray even a technological possibility to begin with.

THEY DON'T SEEM TO CARE???

I'm really confused by this statement.

Ohh so they do care? They sure aren't showing it. As I said, actions speak louder than words. There is absolutely no action on behalf of the BDA. Where are the full profile players? Where are the entry level players to better compete with the cheap Toshiba offering? Exactly, they are no where to be found. It's quite amazing and incredibly pathetic that all these "multi-national corporations totaling nearly 1/2 trilion dollars in total assests" can't develop a damn full profile player well over a year into the format's life. Of course, the resident insiders have nothing to say on these issues since there IS nothing to say.

[hoser]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Guys, seriously, WHO is going to buy those cheap a2s? If you can hardly afford 199 for a HD player, how many discs are you buying a year? Seriously, they are going after a consumer who doesnt exist. One that has a lot of money to buy tons of discs, but doesnt want to pay more then 199 for a player. Give me a break.

Good point...I have often wondered about that.
Those guys that complain that $500 is too much dough for a player are neglecting to look at the cost of software.
Hardware is the smallest cost in that equation.

[Manco]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Ohh so they do care? They sure aren't showing it. As I said, actions speak louder than words. There is absolutely no action on behalf of the BDA. Where are the full profile players? Where are the entry level players to better compete with the cheap Toshiba offering? Exactly, they are no where to be found. It's quite amazing and incredibly pathetic that all these "multi-national corporations totaling nearly 1/2 trilion dollars in total assests" can't develop a damn full profile player well over a year into the format's life. Of course, the resident insiders have nothing to say on these issues since there IS nothing to say.

I don't know man. I've reasoned with you before on other posts before...particularly the Leone films when you were ready to throw in the towel months ago.

Maybe you would be much happier as an HD-DVD supporter. Really.
You always seem to be in the pits one way or another over Blu-ray.

[LeoneFan]

Originally Posted by Manco

I don't know man. I've reasoned with you before on other posts before...particularly the Leone films when you were ready to throw in the towel months ago.

Maybe you would be much happier as an HD-DVD supporter. Really.
You always seem to be in the pits one way or another over Blu-ray.

Nah, I couldn't get myself to buy into an inferior format but if I did at least I'd know that the company pushing the format is doing everything in their power to win the war unlike Sony and the BDA.

The bottom line is that Oct. 31 is almost here and the BDA has dropped the ball again. You can't sugar coat that, it's very simple.

[blindcat87]

OK, I try to not clutter up the insiders' thread with non questions, but seriously. (BTW, I do have a question at the end of all of this, so feel free to just ignore the rest.)

So, the BDA does not care about the format because they did not consult your ultimate marketing genius self for how to run their business? I, unlike some here, do not consider myself a marketing whiz. But I don't see much sense in trying to win a format war by driving all of the profat potential out of the hardware end of the format. Has it occured to you that there is a reason that not many companies other than Toshiba are making HD DVD hardware? Because Tosh's genius move was to try to hit DVD player price levels in order to get faster adoption. The provblem with this is that they are bleeding cash with each sale. The reason this is not a bright tactic is that consumers don't take well to major price hikes. Any other manufacturer entering the game has two options. They can keep parity with Tosh's lossy prices or they can aim their player at the high end market by adding goodies that make their model a top shelf item. The problem with the second option is that they then have a much more limited consumer base. Even if you win the war, you are still stuck with this paradigm. You just completely hosed yourself on the hardware side of the equation.

Why, in the name of all that is blue and good, would that be a good idea for the BDA to take up? Seriously?

I am not saying that all has been done perfect and right by the BDA and associated members, but it gets a little wearing to see these Merlins of Marketing continually acting as if they know more about marketing and the industry than the insiders here and those who they work with. No, we don't have to only give positive feedback and kiss insider posterior, but this insulting claptrap that has already been discussed multiple times on this and other threads gets pretty wearing. If you think you can run the format war better, stop complaining and apply for a job.

I don't know, maybe you have a PhD in marketing. I don't. I was a lit, creative writing, and rhetoric major myself. But my English major brain still tells me that what you are suggesting on the budget player thing is a bad idea. I see a lot of good work going on. I see a great marketing blitz and sales coordination that led BD to a victory on what was supposed to be Red Week. I see companies trying to make sure the hardware works right instead of getting it out fast and fixing it later. Even when problems do pop up like with some Samsung players, the problems get fixed. I want full profile. But I don't want it out so fast that it doesn't work right. I see a lot of amnesia around me. Or maybe most of the complainers here just weren't around for DVDs beginning. I got my first DVD player, a Toshiba coincidentally enough, just as DVD was emerging from test marketing. I remember following and participating in the war with DIVX on alt.video.dvD and on wevsites like the now defunct dvdresource.com and the fledgling thedigitalbits.com. I remember technical problems, poor releases, having to buy a new player because I got a DTS ready reciever, getting into rows with DIVX fans (though there were admittedly fewer of those and their FUD talents were much less developed). Except for scale, this format launch seems to be a very similar experience for me.

Sure, there are things I think could be done better. But I, unlike some, realize that I am neither an industry insider nor expert. I have some minimal experience in media and marketing, even some limited background in consumer psychology. But I do not have the perspective, experience, nor the expertise to back up my assertions if I were to try to assert them. I really don't see where your vast expertise trumps that of Sony or the BDA. Though I would gladly welcome you sharing the reasons a vast thinktank of industry knowledge and experience should drop their current strategies and follow where you lead. This is neither meant as an insult nor an attack upon you. I have certainly agreed with you on other opinions and find that you have great taste in directors. But, seriously, to assert that Sony, or any other member of the BDA does not care about winning the format war is a pretty difficult assertion to back up. That is nothing but hyperbole. Toshiba's actions are not an orchestra of genius and dedication to success. They are actions of desparation and panic. The actions of the BDA speak to me of an organized attempt to build something solid and lasting rather than bricking themselves into a dead end to get there faster than the competition. Just my opinion, which I am as entitled to as you are to yours. But if anyone with more actual knowledge and experience in business and marketing wishes to further educate me as to why I am wrong, I am happy to be further enlightened.

Apologies for the overlong clutter, but there has been so much doomsaying and negativity dumped in the direction of the BDa and the Insiders at a time when I see such a great rebound from the Paramount backstab and such an increase in things for BD fans to be heartened by that it just finally irked me past my normal reticence. No, we haven't won yet, but momentum is growing again and I see much more new potential for good things to come than for bad. Not only that, but I see BD in a position much more able to take unforseen setbacks than HD. I am not an optimist by nature, I just see this particular glass as half full and heading for the brim at least at this moment.

Finally, a question to the insiders. Will DTS HD MA be rearing its lovely head on more players we will see this year and, now that there are actually players out and announced that will bitstream it, is there a chance that the PS3 might actually get this update before 2008?

Thanks,

Chris

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Ohh so they do care? They sure aren't showing it. As I said, actions speak louder than words. There is absolutely no action on behalf of the BDA. Where are the full profile players? Where are the entry level players to better compete with the cheap Toshiba offering? Exactly, they are no where to be found. It's quite amazing and incredibly pathetic that all these "multi-national corporations totaling nearly 1/2 trilion dollars in total assests" can't develop a damn full profile player well over a year into the format's life. Of course, the resident insiders have nothing to say on these issues since there IS nothing to say.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Where are the full profile players?

My first DVD player was a Panasonic. The best quality output on it was S-Video, but since my TV at the time's best quality output was composite, that wasn't a big deal. Later, after that TV went bad, I hooked it up temporarily to a TV with S-Video until I got a better TV that had Component cable inputs, so then I upgraded my DVD player to a Sony DVD player with Component.

OK, maybe the input/output argument is a bit of a stretch, but the point is, technology changes, as does features. You go out these days to get a DVD player and you got players that do Progressive, Upconverting, Kodak CD, JPEG, MP3s, DivX and ones that record. When I first got into DVD, none of these options were available... but the movies still played, and the same thing goes for Blu-ray.

I didn't buy my HD DVD player last year for it's interactive capabilities, I bought it for it's advanced picture and sound. In fact, other than bookmarking and zooming, I've never used any of HD DVD's interactive features (PiP, Internet functions), but I have watched some of the films and some of the documentaries and all the trailers. The same goes for Blu-ray when I got my PS3 this year, although I have tried some of the games, none of them really impressed me.

As a general rule, the only people I hear griping about Blu-ray's Profile-disabilities are the HD DVD owners who latch onto it because HD DVD is more advanced in one or two ways. That's the only real reason why I want the final Profile to be here as quick as possible... but as long as the movies are still playable... and some of the features (trailers, etc...), I'm HAPPY!!

Oh yeah, and the current HD DVD players may not be capable of playing triple-layer HD DVDs... so I feel that HD DVD has a bigger problem than Blu-ray does regarding future-proofing.

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Where are the entry level players to better compete with the cheap Toshiba offering?

While I would personally LOVE to have a Blu-ray player (I kind of like the looks of the Samsung 1400 myself... not to mention the bitstream output) priced at $199 or less, I view the sub-$200 player deal at Wal-Mart to be more of desperate measure than anything else.

Rumor has it that Blu-ray players may be had for $399 or less this Christmas, which puts Blu-ray players only $100 more than Toshiba's new offerings.

Besides, while I think my HD-A2 is a fine player, I have to wonder what kind of moron buys an HD DVD player now? I don't know if my local Wal-Mart has any of these on sale, but with 75-80% of the HDM shelf space set aside for Blu-ray as well as Blu-ray movies found elsewhere in the electronics as well as up front in the store by the checkouts with the new releases.

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

There is absolutely no action on behalf of the BDA.

Spider-Man 1, 2, 3
Cars
Ratatouille
Close Encounters of the Third Kind
Live Free or Die Hard
I Know Who Killed Me (OK, I'm joking here!)
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Superbad
High School Musical 2
Lost: The Complete Third Season
The Simpsons Movie

Have you WATCHED much TV lately?

Starting about a week ago, Disney started airing a commercial for the Blu-ray release of "Meet The Robinson's" instead of the DVD, not to mention a commercial I've started seeing focusing on the "Cars" and "Ratatouille" Blu-ray releases, as well as the commercial for the latter two and POTC III Blu-ray releases, and Sony has now started getting in on the act with a commercial for the Blu-ray release of "Spider-Man 3".

I'm REALLY impressed with the amount of MEDIA advertising Blu-ray has been doing lately. You may not think it amounts to as much as HD DVD's Wal-Mart clearance sale, but with all this talk about Blu-ray, who would want an HD DVD player?

I congratulate the BDA and eagerly look forward to what they have planned next.

~Alan

[LeoneFan]

Blindcat87, good post but here's the issue. Software is what sells players. Who makes the software? The studios do. Do the studios care about profit margins on hardware? No, they could care less since they'll go to the format with the hardware sales advantage. The PS3 excluded since that is not a long term solution for any format. All I'm saying is that a studio like Warner doesn't give a crap about who makes the hardware or how much they profit from it. They will go where the stand-alone player market is, they have no allegiance to any of the BDA CE companies.

[richard lichtenfelt]

I envision a fair number of people buying these bargain priced hd dvd players and taking them home to find out that the picture quality difference is next to nothing on their inexpensive regular definition tvs. Then, if they haven't already, they're going to notice that the movies are roughly $30 bucks a piece and decide that if they want to keep the player they will just rent the hd dvds from Blockbuster. Next they will go to their local Blockbuster and look around. Eventually, after working up a mild irritation, they will approach the counter and ask the rental associate who will then reply that they don't stock hd dvds, but instead carry blu-ray.
I envision a large portion of the cheapo hd dvd players being returned to wally world which will end up costing Toshiba more money to repackage the players and ship them back out to maybe repeat the cycle.
THE BDA IS DOING AN INCREDIBLE JOB. Sales dominance for the whole year despite Toshiba always having the lower priced player. Worry less, watch more movies.
Ipods have always been the most expensive mp3 player but continually crush the competiton, price is not usually the most important determinant in the electronics market.

[Grisle]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

I envision a fair number of people buying these bargain priced hd dvd players and taking them home to find out that the picture quality difference is next to nothing on their inexpensive regular definition tvs. Then, if they haven't already, they're going to notice that the movies are roughly $30 bucks a piece and decide that if they want to keep the player they will just rent the hd dvds from Blockbuster. Next they will go to their local BB and look around. Eventually, after working up a mild irritation, they will approach the counter and ask the sales associate who will then reply that they don't stock hd dvds, but instead carry blu-ray.
I envision a large portion of the cheapo hd dvd players being returned to wally world which will end up costing Toshiba more money to repackage the players and ship them back out to maybe repeat the cycle.
THE BDA IS DOING AN INCREDIBLE JOB. Sales dominance for the whole year despite Toshiba always having the lower priced player. Worry less, watch more movies.

To be fair they will look better than SD and their movies are the same prices as ours. It's a legitimate threat having players priced so low, but the PS3 should bring a greater influx of consumers. I do feel bad for the people who are going to buy this just because it's cheap and find out later what they've gotten into.

[WickyWoo]

Please stop posting these things in the Insider thread and post them here instead

[richteer]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Ohh so they do care? They sure aren't showing it. As I said, actions speak louder than words. There is absolutely no action on behalf of the BDA. Where are the full profile players? Where are the entry level players to better compete with the cheap Toshiba offering? Exactly, they are no where to be found. It's quite amazing and incredibly pathetic that all these "multi-national corporations totaling nearly 1/2 trilion dollars in total assests" can't develop a damn full profile player well over a year into the format's life. Of course, the resident insiders have nothing to say on these issues since there IS nothing to say.

I'm not saying the BDA have done a perfect job (because they haven't), but to say they're doing nothing is plain wrong. If they were doing nothing, we wouldn't have had the 2 for 1 sale, which enabled us to win Transformers week.

[jon s]

Blu-Ray player manufacturers are releasing their products at a price they can afford without selling at a loss. Otherwise, why would they even release a player? Obviously, Toshiba is selling HD-DVD players as a loss leader in order to gain market share. That's why no other major manufacturer has jumped on the HD-DVD bandwagon. I do not understand why so many people keep insisting that BR companies sell at prices to match or beat HD. If the costs are high, so will be the prices.

Sony is probably the only BR company selling players at a loss (the PS3) and they are getting hammered with huge losses in their game division. They are forced to drop the prices to increase their sales for their share in game devices. Currently, they are third and the market does not fare well for new games for the third place device. If game developers do not release new games for the PS3, it will probably go down as the biggest marketing blunder ever. While it may be good for us BR users, it does not bode well for Sony in the long term if sales do not pick up. Sony also has a very bad reputation from the consumer's perception recently. They have had nothing but bad publicity from their laptop battery fiasco, the DRM rootkit in their CDs, the poor sales and marketing strategy of their PS3, recalls of digital cameras and problems with their vaunted SXRD televisions.

But what I do see as a failing for BR is their marketing strategy. The PS3 is probably their biggest selling BR player. It is also the best BR player out there. It loads the movies very quickly, it responds well and will be profile upgradable as soon as firmware updates allow it, and is also the cheapest player out available. As such, stand-alone BR player sales have been pretty dismal. That's why Toshiba keeps insisting that HD player sales outnumber BR players. But if you take in account the PS3, the HD sales rate is greatly outnumbered.

Meanwhile, I do not see much advertising for BR on TV. BR is still very much a work in progress, as new movies get released, players either don't work without firmware updates. The profile changes also will leave a sour taste for a lot of early adopters unaware of these planned features. When joe 6-pack sees the Toshiba A2 at Wally world for $200, he's going to be looking at the price, not reality. Most of the purchasers do not know that the market is strongly divided until after the fact. meanwhile, Toshiba will say that their sales are increasing because of the lower hardware prices. This will force studios to look into HD-DVD more seriously as an alternative rather than a competitor.

Toshiba says that they are winning the market share by NOT including the PS3 in their sales figures. But they include the PS3 in their counts on attach rates of HD movies sales on a per machine basis. This gives the perception that not only Toshiba player outsell BR, but they are selling more movies than BR. Although we know the truth, this fact is handily ignored in most news reorts.

The market is currently in BR's court, but it is a war that they can easily lose and for HD to win unless they get their act together.

[JAGUAR1977]

Of course this will only come to pass if the BDA doesn't have cheaper players in the next few weeks.

These may be lined up, but we won't hear anything until an official announcement, which could be days or weeks away.

P.S standalone player sales are actually very close, around 55-45.

[T-Wrecks]

AVS pro HD DVD members are making threads about the superior Blu-Ray software sales in the US and around the world and are inadvertently giving Blu-ray free advertising...

[The Guardian]

Panasonic did promise us lower prices... Acer dropped their price $50. A cheaper PS3 is coming out and the price was cut on the 80 gig model. And down the line we should have Funai and Daewoo players below the prices of the higher-end CE companies. Don't forget none of the player brands we have currently supporting Blu are "cheap" brands even for DVD players... There are also many threads over the last few days about amazing Blu-ray advertising on TV...

The FUD is thick when pro-Blu-ray people can't even see their own good news!