HD media war, why it's not fierce, and the future (downloads)

[jsteinhauer]

I sometimes wonder why the two houses are not going at it in a more toe to toe fashion to try and be victorious, and all I can think of are ulterior motives. One may be that both camps realize that downloads are inevitable, despite some strong opinions here to the contrary (I'll get to that later). In many competetive fields it is often the practice not to undermine your competitors too deeply, since you are often in bed with them regarding other specialties in your area, or you may need them for something later. In this instance, if one side (BD or HDDVD) wins, the other will still have opportunities to make profits in the other format. Sony will make HDDVD players and release movies in HDDVD or Toshiba will will make Blu-ray players. They also have to keep the other parties satisfied...those that play both sides of the field. If someone is selling your produce, but you say or do something to hurt their sales of the other product, they make take that as unfriendly and start to take sides. This is the most likely short term scenario, I think. Fight your competitor, but don't knock them out. Sort of like Prosecutors and Defenders or Republicans and Democrats. You see them having beers together after hours.

On the other hand, if the writing is on the wall, and downloads are the future, this may simply be a game for both groups and studios to maximize the return on an investment that will be short lived.

While I have read may arguments about why downloadable HD movies will not be feasible in the US for quite some time, I'm not so sure about that. For it to be profitable, it does not need to be universally available. It need only be in major cities. Many rural Americans don't have high speed internet service and are quite fine without it. They still write checks and use postage stamps, too. They don't download things now, and won't feel the need to later. One of the arguments, though, is that even the current high speeds aren't enough to download one disc of BD content in a reasonable amount of time, but I can think of several ways around this at currently available speeds. Let's say you want a new release, you preorder it (there will be limited preorders available, of course, and they will be more expensive). In the days leading up to the release date, it is background downloaded into whatever device you will be using and finally ready to be accessed on the release date. You may also have the option of downloading higher quality content or more bonus content. For a lower price, you can have a lower priority, and the item will be completely downloaded to you at a slower pace and be available at a later time. For an even lower price, it may be available to you for a limited amount of time, after which it will expire and no longer be viewable. Thus making the difference between buying and renting. This has the potential to be enormously profitable, as nothing will need to be manufactured. The only downsides I see are the loss of money from selling collector editions, gift purchases and for some, the act of shopping importantly involves seeing and touching.

Does it make sense?

[dobyblue]

downloads are more than ten years away from being a dominant force

[w_tanoto]

right.... download???? I am soooo against this thing. not all people has internet connection and huge HDD

[kwhiplash]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

right.... download???? I am soooo against this thing. not all people has internet connection and huge HDD

Not only that...but why did I buy a 42" TV if I have to watch all my movies on a 15" laptop screen?

[lch]

how high is high speed internet going to be acceptable for downloading hd content ?
how many people is going to wait for 2 days for their download to finish before sitting down to watch it for only 2 hours and having to wait for another 2 days for the sequel ?

[Footloose301]

Originally Posted by kwhiplash

Not only that...but why did I buy a 42" TV if I have to watch all my movies on a 15" laptop screen?

I happen to have my Apple notebook connected via DVI to my 46" 1080P LCD Sony and my notebook even recognizes it as being 1080P. You've got to see how remarkable it looks. I was shocked to see how clear it was.

And I have the audio running via fiber optic(toslink) to my 7.1ch receiver

DVDs on my notebook to tv look just as good, if not better than my blu-ray player upscaling them.

We're not that far away from downloads being used.

[Footloose301]

Originally Posted by lch

how high is high speed internet going to be acceptable for downloading hd content ?
how many people is going to wait for 2 days for their download to finish before sitting down to watch it for only 2 hours and having to wait for another 2 days for the sequel ?

You'd be surprised how fast some internet connections are. I bet you'd be able to download a 25GB movie in a few hours. Takes me about 15min to download a 1 GB file.

[kwhiplash]

Originally Posted by Footloose301

I happen to have my Apple notebook connected via DVI to my 46" 1080P LCD Sony and my notebook even recognizes it as being 1080P. You've got to see how remarkable it looks. I was shocked to see how clear it was.

And I have the audio running via fiber optic(toslink) to my 7.1ch receiver

DVDs on my notebook to tv look just as good, if not better than my blu-ray player upscaling them.

We're not that far away from downloads being used.

Is DVI the cable or the type of connection? Does the type of notebook you use have an effect on the video quality that comes across?

[Footloose301]

Originally Posted by kwhiplash

Is DVI the cable or the type of connection? Does the type of notebook you use have an effect on the video quality that comes across?

A DVI is the same as HDMI for the most part. My DVI connection only carries video though, thats why I had to use a seperate audio connection.

As for the type of notebook I use having anything to do with the video quality.... probably, its an Apple. They are meant for graphics/design, demos, and presentations. I'd say most movies are made on Apple computers. Also, most movies you watch or even tv shows now feature Apple computers in them. But, I'm not saying a Windows laptop couldn't do the same thing. I know the newer HP's are coming with HDMI outputs, so those would work too.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Footloose301

You'd be surprised how fast some internet connections are. I bet you'd be able to download a 25GB movie in a few hours. Takes me about 15min to download a 1 GB file.

Speed is one aspect. Storage is another.

Sure 500GB drives are cheap. But, they still amount to $5-$10 a Blu-ray movie in storage costs. At 100 discs, you'd need 3TB-5TB of storage. And as the number of drives goes up, the risk of failure does too. So, really you want a nice RAID.

Or, you can try to build a culture that accepts very low video bit-rates and lossy audio to keep the storage costs down. Hmmm, quite the coincidence that is what Microsoft is pushing with HD DVD huh?

Gary

[jedisinclair]

Originally Posted by jsteinhauer

If someone is selling your produce, but you say or do something to hurt their sales of the other product, they make take that as unfriendly and start to take sides.

Sorry, I know it's just a typo, but I was LMAO "If someone is selling your produce"...

[ikbradley]

I'm all for downloads. As long as it remains free and legal in my country. Take that Microsoft!

[glenn22]

Saying downloadable HD content will take over physical media any time within the next 10 years is just SILLY at best. Think about it. Seriously. Blu-ray discs are 50 GB, do you realize how LONG that would take to download even on the best high speed internet connection?? Internet infrastructure can be upgraded and new technologies released, but that is not going to happen overnight. The only other way to make this a possibility is to seriously compress the content to make file sizes much smaller... more compression = less quality, not a good idea. In order to make this the norm, boxes used to download content will need large hard drives to hold all the data. Lastly, people are fundamentally resistant to change, thus the term 'early adopter'. Some people will always prefer a physical copy of something purchased. If you can't see how silly it is to say downloadable HD content will take over soon... well I don't know what to tell you.

[Bizi Jones]

^^
downloading a bd takes a few hours...downloads are here today...the hd rips of bd/hddvd, are just as good sometimes better than the actual bd presentation...I realize that they use compression and filters, but that's just my experience...it also avoids this format war...+ the content is much bigger, since there are many more sources, apart from studios releasing, hd channels provide multiple sources for films/shows/sports not yet released to hdm...sure they're prolly not full blown bd transfers...but still way better than dvd...cheaper too

failing hard drives...its easy enough to replace, and u can usually tell when the hdd is about to die, since its a progressive death...sure hdds pile up, but given the alternative, of empty shelf space, I don't mind...

[raginranger]

Originally Posted by Bizi Jones

^^
downloading a bd takes a few hours...downloads are here today...the hd rips of bd/hddvd, are just as good sometimes better than the actual bd presentation...I realize that they use compression and filters, but that's just my experience...it also avoids this format war...+ the content is much bigger, since there are many more sources, apart from studios releasing, hd channels provide multiple sources for films/shows/sports not yet released to hdm...sure they're prolly not full blown bd transfers...but still way better than dvd...cheaper too

failing hard drives...its easy enough to replace, and u can usually tell when the hdd is about to die, since its a progressive death...sure hdds pile up, but given the alternative, of empty shelf space, I don't mind...

BOOOOO!!!! I dislike downloads. If i pay my hard earned money for something, I'd like for it to be a tangible item I can see with my own two eyes and hold with my own two hands, not something stored on a hard drive. Call me old-fashioned but whatev, thats just my 2 cents on the matter.

[jsteinhauer]

But no one would really have to like it, you see. As long as it was profitable. And the scenario I presented did not require large bandwidth, and anyone, anywhere in the world with a satellite dish would be able to purchase anything that was available.

As I explained, assume today it is announced that Movie X will be "released" for home viewing on December 15th and preorders are being accepted. You pay now, and it is transmitted to whatever hardware you use by the 15th of December. That's pretty low tech even on the existing infrastructure. Sure, you'll need a box full of memory, but that may just be a big Ipod.

Maybe it is 10 years away, but I don't think it needs to be. If you've been doing R and D on technology for years, you need some time to make some money on it, before trashing it (which may be what's happening now).

And I'm not saying it will necessarily be better, either, but if it's more profitable, it will happen sooner, not later.

[Bizi Jones]

Originally Posted by raginranger

BOOOOO!!!! I dislike downloads. If i pay my hard earned money for something, I'd like for it to be a tangible item I can see with my own two eyes and hold with my own two hands, not something stored on a hard drive. Call me old-fashioned but whatev, thats just my 2 cents on the matter.

well, how does the SW hd trilogy feel in your hand...or Sopranos S3...or TTT,or X2, or Jurassic Park, or Batman Begins, or Band of Brothers...etc etc...me I'm pretty satisfied watching them now...but you, as an old-fashioned media fan, can continue to hold all those titles with your two hands...

until they come out, not holding my breath, I'll gladly continue watching the stuff I want to c in hd, not what the Studios want me to watch...

I know it'll take time...but for now downloads will suffice

[GasCat]

Are they going to pay for my download service when they say I am over-using my connection and must pay a larger bill.

Downloads are a pipedream. The next format is in the labs growing in a petri dish right now.

[jorg]

Originally Posted by jsteinhauer

I sometimes wonder why the two houses are not going at it in a more toe to toe fashion to try and be victorious, and all I can think of are ulterior motives. One may be that both camps realize that downloads are inevitable, despite some strong opinions here to the contrary (I'll get to that later). In many competetive fields it is often the practice not to undermine your competitors too deeply, since you are often in bed with them regarding other specialties in your area, or you may need them for something later. In this instance, if one side (BD or HDDVD) wins, the other will still have opportunities to make profits in the other format. Sony will make HDDVD players and release movies in HDDVD or Toshiba will will make Blu-ray players. They also have to keep the other parties satisfied...those that play both sides of the field. If someone is selling your produce, but you say or do something to hurt their sales of the other product, they make take that as unfriendly and start to take sides. This is the most likely short term scenario, I think. Fight your competitor, but don't knock them out. Sort of like Prosecutors and Defenders or Republicans and Democrats. You see them having beers together after hours.

On the other hand, if the writing is on the wall, and downloads are the future, this may simply be a game for both groups and studios to maximize the return on an investment that will be short lived.

While I have read may arguments about why downloadable HD movies will not be feasible in the US for quite some time, I'm not so sure about that. For it to be profitable, it does not need to be universally available. It need only be in major cities. Many rural Americans don't have high speed internet service and are quite fine without it. They still write checks and use postage stamps, too. They don't download things now, and won't feel the need to later. One of the arguments, though, is that even the current high speeds aren't enough to download one disc of BD content in a reasonable amount of time, but I can think of several ways around this at currently available speeds. Let's say you want a new release, you preorder it (there will be limited preorders available, of course, and they will be more expensive). In the days leading up to the release date, it is background downloaded into whatever device you will be using and finally ready to be accessed on the release date. You may also have the option of downloading higher quality content or more bonus content. For a lower price, you can have a lower priority, and the item will be completely downloaded to you at a slower pace and be available at a later time. For an even lower price, it may be available to you for a limited amount of time, after which it will expire and no longer be viewable. Thus making the difference between buying and renting. This has the potential to be enormously profitable, as nothing will need to be manufactured. The only downsides I see are the loss of money from selling collector editions, gift purchases and for some, the act of shopping importantly involves seeing and touching.

Does it make sense?

sure body the pirsates of carriben and spier man 3 movies w ere over 50 gigs some hdd can`t even donwload that

[Bizi Jones]

Originally Posted by GasCat

Are they going to pay for my download service when they say I am over-using my connection and must pay a larger bill.

Downloads are a pipedream. The next format is in the labs growing in a petri dish right now.

well, usually isps don't care too much about their cap limits...and even if they do they send u a warning, and then you threaten to take your business elsewhere and they stop caring...

Originally Posted by jorg

sure body the pirsates of carriben and spier man 3 movies w ere over 50 gigs some hdd can`t even donwload that

what does that even mean