Adams Media Research 2007-2011 projections: BD to outpace all digital downloads

[Grubert]

Source: Home Media Magazine

[Nerdkiller likes BD]

Wow. It's just climbing at a aster rate than the downloads. Eat your heart out M$, you've been beaten again.

[kx11]

^^^
why is MS is attacked for blu-ray's success? as far as i know they'll support it sooner or later for movie fans , and the next xbox will have a blu-ray player unless toshiba made nazi decisions like making a new media to fight everyone else :P

[HeavyHitter]

Originally Posted by kx11

^^^
why is MS is attacked for blu-ray's success?

Dude, where have you been the last two years? MS has been doing almost everything possible to stop Blu-ray from growing.

[MarekM]

I posted thisd in other thread

that I like their prediction for thid year total units sold to customers

33.7 mil wich is bigger than my very optimistic 27mil

I hope that I will be wrong and that final number will be closer to their number

Marek

[Blu Titan]

33.7 million for 2008 would be huge I am expecting 25 million. Anyways, very positive news. Thanks!

[Clark Kent]

Once the format war was over this type of move was inevitable for Blu-ray. The U.S. simply doesn't have the telecommunications infrastructure now or in the foreseeable future to make digital downloads a viable option.

Another factor is going to be the digital transition the broadcasters will be making in 2009. Many analysts expect HDTV sets to really start selling once the analog tv signal is turned off. Once someone gets a HDTV it is a natural extension to start looking into making a Blu-ray player purchase.

[Blu Haze]

Originally Posted by kx11

^^^
why is MS is attacked for blu-ray's success? as far as i know they'll support it sooner or later for movie fans , and the next xbox will have a blu-ray player unless toshiba made nazi decisions like making a new media to fight everyone else :P

The Treaty of Versailles caused WW2 remember. TOSHIBA Is probably going to be Germany. The loser gets mad builds up and bam.

[Anthony P]

I think it looks good early on (the 33.7), but BD units growth goes from ~6x, ~3x, ~2x, <2x

so I think they are slipping later on, I don't think growth will slow down that fast.

[cakefoo]

Look at all the competition for that single download: Netflix, Amazon, Xbox Live, AppleTV, vudu, cable/satellite pay-per-view, etc.

Blu-ray, on the other hand, is the lone provider of HD discs.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by cakefoo

Look at all the competition for that single download: Netflix, Amazon, Xbox Live, AppleTV, vudu, cable/satellite pay-per-view, etc.

Blu-ray, on the other hand, is the lone provider of HD discs.

Which is a big problem for DD since they have not standard.

If people thought HD DVD vs Blu-Ray was confusing, DD would be a disaster for them....

[mightypen]

33.7m in 2008?

I take it that includes ps3s? And I would have to assume that is a world wide figure.

I find that to be highly optimistic.

Did they miss the abysmal 1st quarter stand alone numbers?

[Anthony P]

Did they miss the abysmal 1st quarter stand alone numbers?

they did not miss anything, you missed that it is movies

[mightypen]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

they did not miss anything, you missed that it is movies

Whoops, you're right.

[syncguy]

Large file HD downloads cannot be massmarket simply because there is no sufficient bandwidth in the networks.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by syncguy

Large file HD downloads cannot be massmarket simply because there is no sufficient bandwidth in the networks.

Not to mention the fact that if your download box crashes and burns your entire downloaded collection is most likely gone since the DRM ties it to that unit.

At least with physical media your entire collection is not at risk if the player crashes.

[CptGreedle]

nice graph, I hope that at least that much happens, if not better.
That is a prediction, based on analysis of the market et al. But it is possible for Blu-ray to do even better