Facts Vs. FUD

[bhampton]

Hi,

I thought I would list up popular HD DUD FUD and then gather data and see how the truth compares. I'll list up popular fud and then gather facts and edit them in.

1) HD DUD leads in Stand Alone Sales

Found data from 10/9

Year to date, according to NPD figures she cited, HD DVD players command 53% of sales; Blu-ray players, 44%; dual format players, 3%.

This data shows HD DUD leading in stand alone sales by nearly 10% year to date. Of course the whole concept of Stand Alone sales is an attempt to dis-count the PS3 which is the best selling Blu Ray player. Xbox add on HD DUD drives are counted as stand alones because all they do is play HD DUD's. So if you take out the best selling Blu Ray player,.. yes, HD DUD has a 10% lead for now.

2) Attach rates for Blu Ray are Horrible

Again,.. I'll look this up if I can. I don't know if anyone is interested enough in attach rates outside of the HD DUD FUD campaign to chart this type of data.

I would say that if HD DUD leads in hardware sales (53:44) and Blu Ray leads in software sales (71:29) then the attach rate looks pretty good to me.

Here is the inverse of the first point above in which they throw the PS3 back into consideration and say there's millions of Blu Ray players but Blu Ray is only slightly outselling HD DUD in software. A real "have your cake and eat it too" type thinking in which they sometimes consider PS3 and sometimes don't.

3) Disney is being paid to stick with Blu Ray.

I find zero evidence of this. The DUD-ers cling to the thought of someday having Disney HD DUD's so this bit of FUD comes up fairly often. Why disney would promote Blu Ray the way it does when it's secretly dying to produce discs with less storage space and bandwidth that don't sell well is simply beyond my understanding.

4) Sales of HD Media are so low compared to DVD that the sales data is irrelevant.

So far the only data I've found is this "1.3% of DVD market is HD SAL". I think that's reference to HD Media stand alone players vs DVD players. Still looking for more info here.

Looking at recent day and date movie releases though the High Def versions don't trail far behind the Standard DVD in sales charts. So I think HD Media is picking up some of the slack.

I will say however, that HD Media on both sides is getting lots of shelf space in what was the DVD section of any store. I would say that between Blu Ray and HD DUD, 20% of the movies shelf space at my Best Buy is HD Media. This to me doesn't look like a failing products last gasp.

Blu Ray has outsold HD DUD for 42 consecutive weeks now since just before X-mass last year so the only way to spin that for HD DUD is to say .. that doesn't matter anyway.

5) TL51 discs are coming any minute now and all but first gen players will work with the discs with a simple FW update.

"The next Steering Committe meeting is scheduled for 11/15/07. I am hoping that one of the agenda items will be the File Specs for the TL51."

In the last "steering" meeting TL51's got voted for another "approval" round and I've been informed it's not final approval yet but rather the final approval of the physical specs. File specs have to determined and according to the quote above by FUD Master Lee Stewart he hopes they address that at the next meeting in Nov. Facts are, it's not fully approved and compatability has not been investigated. If anyone knows otherwise please show me some evidence and I'll edit this one.

6) HD DUD will counter with a BOGO sale soon.


If this is going to happen we should now next week when SpiderMan is release on Blu Ray. Like the Transformers, SpiderMan is a big threat to sales data so if HD DUD is going to counter with a BOGO we will know in a matter of days. Plenty of DUD'ers got BOGO deals this week thanks to a Circuit City glitch but I have yet to see a real BOGO sale for the DUD's. Anyway this would be an attempt to stop numbers like 94:6 unlike the current Blu Ray BOGO which, I believe, was an attempt to just prevent any lead from the DUD side.


7) Blu Ray's Scratch Resistant Surface is not a feature but a nessessity because of the way Blu Rays data is so close to the surface.

Well, the facts are these. Blu Ray's have a scratch resistant surface that has been proven effective and I've seen video which shows it survive attacks by SOS pads and even a pizza cutter.

HD DUD's have the same amount of scratch resistance that DVD do but the data is more densely packed making a scratch on a HD DUD more of a problem.

Now a HD DUD on the shelf in a home may never get scrached up to begin with but the scratch resistant coating is a major advantage in the rental markets. I netflix DVDs and Blu Rays and have had problems with the DVD's but never with the Blu Rays.

8) Cheap Chinese HD DUD players ($199, $149) will turn the tides for HD DUD


The player in question, made by Venturer, is available now from Target online only and it sells for $249+Shipping not $199 or $149.

http://www.target.com

And rejected Toshiba players do exist as open box items at my Best Buy and sell for exactly the same $249. I don't think that even a HD DUD-er would be silly enough to buy a cheap player when Toshiba players can be purchased for the same price. Actual $199 or $149 players have yet to be seen.

9) 30GB is enough

Quote:
"Indeed, I had the opportunity to attend a special 'Transformers' media event with Paramount late last week, and the question was asked almost immediately -- why no Dolby TrueHD or uncompressed PCM? The studio's answer was that due to space limitations on the disc, the decision was made to limit the audio to Dolby Digital-Plus 5.1 Surround only (here at 1.5mbps). Unfortunately, this confirms the long-held theory that the 30Gb capacity of an HD-30 dual-layer HD DVD disc has forced studios to choose between offering a robust supplements package (as they've done here) and the very best in audio quality."

Second,.. TL51 is getting lots of attention these days which is a complete waste if 30GB is "enough."

10) HD DVD was finalized from Day One while new profiles will reder all current Blu Ray players obsolete.

Both formats are changing. Twin Disc was a recent addition to the HD DVD format and TL51 is up for consideration. Neither format is finalized. Even those who claim TL51 will be compatable with a FW update always suggest except for Generation 1 players. On the other hand, BDA has made it clear that existing Blu Ray players will all be able to show the main feature and only some of the extras will be in-compatable with older players.




Anyway,.. I'm off to look for the facts. If you have popular FUD points you want to see investigated let me know and I'll work them in.

-Brian