HD-DVD versus Blu-ray, current stats

[mainman]

Do you guys know any article's which shows the current stats of sold HD-DVD players and movies versus sold Blu-ray players and movies.

I mean, right now, which one is winning right now?

[Blue]

Originally Posted by mainman

Do you guys know any article's which shows the current stats of sold HD-DVD players and movies versus sold Blu-ray players and movies.

I mean, right now, which one is winning right now?

Irrelevent as HD-DVD has been out four times as long as BD (although there were a few escapees BD was released about the 25th June, so approx 3 weeks ago HD-DVD Mid April approx 12 weeks).

It would be unrealisitc to expect HD-DVD to have sold 4 times as many units. The war has not yet begun, these are just the early warning shots.

Expect a dirty fight (from both sides) and a number of unsuspecting consumers to be the casualty. I suspect the HD-DVD camp will also be a casualty for 3 reasons.
The advantage for HD-DVD over BD was cheaper Disc's as smaller changes are required to existing DVD plants - this so far has not been passed onto the consumer, if indeed it's still an issue.

Capacity - in the computer market this is critical. It seems for movies space is running outfor HD that is using the more efficent codecs 200MB /min seems to be about the average, assuming they get more efficent at the encoding and can run max quality at 170MB/min that means only movies less than 150min will fit on one disc - Kiss the epics goodbye along with many many other films (BD using the high compression codecs will just make it)

The weight behind BD, nearly every CE is behind Blu Ray and nearly all exclusive to BD. Although a much more complex market it only took Sony and Philips to launch the CD. With Panasonic and Pioneer that should be enough to get them across the line, but the list keeps going Yamaha, Teac, Sharp, LG and of course Samsung (the latter two are critical as they will be the mass market, cheap and low end) well Samsung seem to have the low end in hand already (now for the cheap and mass - one out of three aint bad). That's not to say Toshiba will die without a fight. They are an enourmous company with a respected reputation for producing quality product.

The time for the first comparrision will be Jan (just after the Christmas madness), then I think it will be a little more complex, I think there will be 5 criteria
Availabilty of Hardware 'Decks'
Availability of PC drives (burners)
Number of available software titles
Number of Disc's sold (blank and pre-recorded)
Number of Playable Devices (Pc Burners and Movie 'decks') sold

The sideshow will be in full swing PS3 vs XBox (now that will be the classic pub brawl), however that will have little impact on the above as the XBox is at this point not exclusive HD-DVD, I don't see how they can keep blu ray out at least for storage as USB BD and I assume HD-DVD will appear sometime in the future.

If in Jan it's a 50 50 ratio it's going to be a mess that will last for a year or 3. If a 10:1 or greater ratio there is a clear winner and it's all over. At this point in time it will be a brave person to make a prediction what the ratio will be let alone which side will have that ratio.

[hmurchison]

Irrelevent as HD-DVD has been out four times as long as BD (although there were a few escapees BD was released about the 25th June, so approx 3 weeks ago HD-DVD Mid April approx 12 weeks).

Yes but if Amazon sales rankings are anything accurate the Sammy BD Player is trailing big. The A1 is usually in the Top 20 and sometimes Top 10. The Sammy hasn't cracked the Top 50.

The advantage for HD-DVD over BD was cheaper Disc's as smaller changes are required to existing DVD plants - this so far has not been passed onto the consumer, if indeed it's still an issue.

If there are any subsidies happening behind the scene the price differences would be obfuscated. The only way you will know the true price is to have a personal replication quote done and see the HD DVD price and Blu-Ray price.

Capacity - in the computer market this is critical. It seems for movies space is running outfor HD that is using the more efficent codecs 200MB /min seems to be about the average, assuming they get more efficent at the encoding and can run max quality at 170MB/min that means only movies less than 150min will fit on one disc - Kiss the epics goodbye along with many many other films (BD using the high compression codecs will just make it)

What kind of math are you Aussies using?

18Mbps avg bitrate corresponds to

18Mbps*60s= 1080 megabits per minute

Divide by 8 to get megabytes 1080/8 = 135MB per minute.

Microsoft's new VC-1 encoder coming should provide todays quality at avg bitrate of 14 so we have further space reduction. I think you need to bone up on this before you responding to people. There's no use in the blind leading the blind here.

The weight behind BD, nearly every CE is behind Blu Ray and nearly all exclusive to BD

Eclusive?? Then how do you explaind this

http://www.tsstorage.com/index_e.html for optical drives. NEC will likely make optical drives for both. What about Lite-on making drives for both. Sanyo making parts for both.

Blue you're going to have to improve your knowledge muy rapido. I'm seeing other areas in which your post can be ripped to shreds. You can't bullshat her like you know something. Facts or lack of facts cant be proven or disproven with a quick google search.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Blue you're going to have to improve your knowledge muy rapido. I'm seeing other areas in which your post can be ripped to shreds. You can't bullshat her like you know something. Facts or lack of facts cant be proven or disproven with a quick google search.

One of the oldest rules of storytelling, arguing, and so many other things: SHOW, don't TELL.

why not SHOW him, and us, where he's wrong by directly refuting whatever it is you think he got wrong with something concrete and meaningful.

Removed personal attack. If you have a problem with something that's posted here please report the post rather than reply to it. - nyg

[hmurchison]

Simply math JTK

18Mbps at 1 minute is incongruent with the numbers he's given.

There are ways in which you can debate the intagible. Percieved sales or what features actually mean the most. But you've really f***ed up when you've made basic math errors as a basis for your statement.

I encourage people to rip my posts to shreds when I make factual errors that can be disproven with correct info. I get smarter this way and trust I've been corrected on A LOT of stuff. You learn not to make the same mistakes again.

Always a good practice to have thick skin. It's just debate ..nothing personal.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Simply math JTK

18Mbps at 1 minute is incongruent with the numbers he's given.

There are ways in which you can debate the intagible. Percieved sales or what features actually mean the most. But you've really f***ed up when you've made basic math errors as a basis for your statement.

I encourage people to rip my posts to shreds when I make factual errors that can be disproven with correct info. I get smarter this way and trust I've been corrected on A LOT of stuff. You learn not to make the same mistakes again.

Always a good practice to have thick skin. It's just debate ..nothing personal.

There ya go. That's better. Showing, not telling...turning the ego notch down several levels...thank you. Much better!

[mainman]

Eclusive?? Then how do you explaind this

http://www.tsstorage.com/index_e.html for optical drives. NEC will likely make optical drives for both. What about Lite-on making drives for both. Sanyo making parts for both.

Blue you're going to have to improve your knowledge muy rapido. I'm seeing other areas in which your post can be ripped to shreds. You can't bullshat her like you know something. Facts or lack of facts cant be proven or disproven with a quick google search.

But Nec, Sanyo and Lite-on were suposed to be HD-dvd exclusives right?
I mean Nec created HD-dvd together with Toshiba right?

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by mainman

But Nec, Sanyo and Lite-on were suposed to be HD-dvd exclusives right?
I mean Nec created HD-dvd together with Toshiba right?

It's hard to say. I think we as consumers tend to think about this war as "Sony against Toshiba"

But to suppliers hey it's all about the contracts. If Toshiba can sell some optical drives for Blu-Ray hey it's more money for the coffers.

I think you'll see a lot of alliances behind the scenes where the unlikeliest of partnerships will be made.

For instance the Cell processor in the Playstation 3 was developed by IBM with input from Sony and Toshiba. It's feasible that Toshiba could sell Sony Cell chips if they run dry. That may be unlikely but it illustrates how companies still have to worry about the bottom line even if they are supplying components for a competitors products.

As always I don't mean to be an arse. If I can help you in anyway and you can help me its worth the occasional "hmurchison you totally screwed that up dude" posts. After the initial embarassment I'm going to thank you.

Regards.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

It's hard to say. I think we as consumers tend to think about this war as "Sony against Toshiba"

But to suppliers hey it's all about the contracts. If Toshiba can sell some optical drives for Blu-Ray hey it's more money for the coffers.

I think you'll see a lot of alliances behind the scenes where the unlikeliest of partnerships will be made.

For instance the Cell processor in the Playstation 3 was developed by IBM with input from Sony and Toshiba. It's feasible that Toshiba could sell Sony Cell chips if they run dry. That may be unlikely but it illustrates how companies still have to worry about the bottom line even if they are supplying components for a competitors products.

Now this is true.

Outside of this format war, we see plenty of crossover, cross pollinating, and alliances between these companies on all sorts of enterprises. And this is just what's publicly well documented.

That's why it just continues to frustrate me that some way, some how, they couldn't all get together and figure out a way to get one unified, stable format that incorporates the best of both worlds from both Blu-Ray and Toshiba.

Outside of greed, there really is no excuse for it.

I would have rather seen it hold until 2007, even, if we could have gotten that awesome, unified format.

Like I've stated many times now: Even I would have early adopted for the first time in my life under that auspice.

But not like this. Not the way it is now.

The only exception I might make is if I see a universal player from a top CE company.

As always I don't mean to be an arse. If I can help you in anyway and you can help me its worth the occasional "hmurchison you totally screwed that up dude" posts. After the initial embarassment I'm going to thank you.

Regards.

That's good. I hope you mean that.

I'd like to believe you don't mean to be an arse, but sometimes you come into some of these threads with that ego button pressed down quite a bit.

And it shouldn't require people ripping into other people's posts either way, as you referred to in another thread, to communicate and have an effective argument/discussion.

[mainman]

Eclusive?? Then how do you explaind this

http://www.tsstorage.com/index_e.html for optical drives. NEC will likely make optical drives for both. What about Lite-on making drives for both. Sanyo making parts for both.

Blue you're going to have to improve your knowledge muy rapido. I'm seeing other areas in which your post can be ripped to shreds. You can't bullshat her like you know something. Facts or lack of facts cant be proven or disproven with a quick google search.

About that link you gave, about tsstorage.com. This is a joint venture with Toshiba and Samsung and they bring Hd-dvd among others to the market. But this does not mean that Samsung is not Blu-ray exclusive. I would say that despite this, Samsung is still Blu-ray exclusive.

Tsstorage is a joint venture with the two companies like I said before, 51% of this company is owned by Toshiba, so they are the one's making all the decisions. Samsung has some say, but is there just to share the profits and costs of that joint venture.

[zombie]

Please keep this discussion civil. Personal attacks will not be tolerated. Thank you in advance.

[mainman]

Originally Posted by nyg

Please keep this discussion civil. Personal attacks will not be tolerated. Thank you in advance.

Who did you adress this message to? Not me I hope

[zombie]

Originally Posted by mainman

Who did you adress this message to? Not me I hope

No, you're doing fine my friend.

[hmurchison]

I'm extending a public apology to Brian and JTK.

Normally I'm pretty level headed but today was a case of the monday blahs and I shouldn't have let angst creept into my post. Sorry guys. Take care and we'll debate more in the future in a more respectful manner.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'm extending a public apology to Brian and JTK.

Normally I'm pretty level headed but today was a case of the monday blahs and I shouldn't have let angst creept into my post. Sorry guys. Take care and we'll debate more in the future in a more respectful manner.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'm extending a public apology to Brian and JTK.

Normally I'm pretty level headed but today was a case of the monday blahs and I shouldn't have let angst creept into my post. Sorry guys. Take care and we'll debate more in the future in a more respectful manner.

Ok, cool...i'll call off the goons!

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Ok, cool...i'll call off the goons!

My kneecaps thank you decision.

Hey I'm freakin ready for some HD regardless of format. I'd download the stuff if I had to.

Brian question for you. How are the 1080p Samsungs doing in sales? I'm thinking about grabbing the HLS-5087w is the model I believe. Since I sell computers I can actually order through a local distributor for a bit above cost. I hope they're doing well for you.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

My kneecaps thank you decision.

Hey I'm freakin ready for some HD regardless of format. I'd download the stuff if I had to.

Brian question for you. How are the 1080p Samsungs doing in sales? I'm thinking about grabbing the HLS-5087w is the model I believe. Since I sell computers I can actually order through a local distributor for a bit above cost. I hope they're doing well for you.

We've sold lots of em, and having it setup on the Blu-Ray end cap isn't hurting the sales, that i can assure you. I get small collective groups gathering around it on weekends and in between trailers you can hear the customers talking to eachother:

"wow, what a great picture"

"is that the new high def discs"

"wow, the player is $999, i want it, but i'll wait til they come down a bit"

"Do you have that in stock, if so i'll take it"

"then the occassional avsforum guy, Oh...poo poo, i've seen better than this, looks worse than DVHS, HDDVD and my denon upconvert"

BTW, i'm just kidding on that last one.

[hmurchison]

Great news.

It's earmarked as my "gift to myself" next year before I get engaged and get caught up in the Wedding Buzzsaw.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Great news.

It's earmarked as my "gift to myself" next year before I get engaged and get caught up in the Wedding Buzzsaw.

the antidote to sex- "wedding cake"