Education Please!

[Widukind]

Here is my deal:
1. I am new to the forum, and I just bought a Samsung BD-P1400. I love it! I am now totally on line, studying the format war, cause I chose sides!

2. My dad, recently retired, is a Geek type guy, former manager of IT at McDonalds Corp for over 25 years. He says, I am an idiot for buying now and chosing sides. He says digital downloads will replace everything, cause DVDs have had a life of like only a decade (he is assuming they will soon be obsolete for the most part).

3. I am an accountant, I am not a tech guy. I bought Blu-Ray for these simple reasons: I watch movies as like a hobby, typically see one a day. I prefer movies to look and sound great, and I have a nice new HDTV and stereo surround sound. I also chose Blu-Ray cause they had my favorite movie, the directors cut for Kingdom of Heaven. They have it on one Blu-Ray disc, whereas on DVD, the movie itself is 2 DVDs and the special features are two more DVDs (Like Lord of the Rings).
4. Now I am all into the format war and I want Blu-Ray to win, and fast. I have four kids, and spent a lot of money over a span of half a decade to get a lot of movies on DVD that were on VHS. I want to chose sides now, simply cause buying a movie for a little less on DVD makes little sense if it is a movie I will watch again and again. Thus, I would rather buy the best now...

Now for my questions:

1. How long can this format war rage on? I see no end in site. I would like to buy only my most favorite movies on Blu-ray, the ones I watch over and over (Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Incredibles, the Bourne series). I will not be suckered into spending all kinds of money to replace 200 or so DVDs my four kids, my wife and I own ourselves already.

2. Can both formats survive? Sure, I bet on Blu-Ray to win, I like one Kingdom of Heaven Disc vs. 2 which would be on HD DVD (if it even goes there.) Could this be like -RW and +RW where both formats will continue to exist and be "standard"?

3. This is about business and money, and both sides have a lot of stake, so do their stockholders. Thus, I see neither side giving up, and my favorite store in the world, Best Buy, will not take sides, but will sell both...

4. I forsee a lot my dad says as being right, like IPods losing to smaller and smaller Laptops, and the Laptop becoming our TV, our satellite Dish, (My netflix now), Laptops even becoming our phones. Heck, Toshiba is selling a Laptop that you can plug into your home entertainment system that has HD DVDs, I am assuming Sony has one out too...(not to mention, I watch a lot of movies on my train rides to and from work)

5. Could both sides lose over time?

6. The Best Buy store I go to, now has Blu-Ray discs and HD DVDs the first stands you see in the movies section. They are plugging for people to stop buying DVDs, I can tell. Where can I get good UP TO DATE INFORMATION on the format war, who is winning, and what merchants like Wal Mart are planning on doing?

7. I also see "less educated" consumers deciding this war. Most of my neighbors don't speak english well, and I see them running to Walmart, buying a cheap HD DVD player (which doesn't even play at 1080p, and they have no idea what that even is to begin with. Not to mention, three of my neighbors have their TVs in their garage along with a bar, so they have a completely different mindset than I do... I think those not as well informed buy more stuff nationally than us that spend the time researching products first, and I do think price will be a factor. Since I park my car in my garage, not the front lawn, to me, I want to buy the best...but I see most Americans no longer buying the best...thus, can the uneducated less knowledable make the impact I fear?

[tiger roach]

I'm not going to take on all of that, but I have to disagree with your Dad (with all due respect of course). I don't think packaged media will go away any time soon. And whatever happens in the war and with downloading, you can enjoy incredible HD movies NOW.

[MacDaddyOJack]

You are correct, there are far too many ignorant (and some just plain stupid) Americans who can inhibit this war. But chill Rocket, just do what the rest of us do and buy Blu, and only Blu! If this war doesn't come to an end, I see it being something like the NFL(Blu) and the Canadian Football League (HD-DVD). Both of them seem to be staying, its just that one is far better than the other because of its rules, specifications, and participants/ manufacturers. I highly doubt you are throwing away any money that you put into the Bluray format.

[SamInNorthCakalakey]

And I'm in IT as well. Not 25 years but double digits.

Don't get the same quality, can't "HOLD" anything, takes too damn long to download. Can you imagine having to setup a download when you wake up in the morning to make sure you can watch it after dinner that night? My life isn't that structured.

[WickyWoo]

1. How long can this format war rage on? I see no end in site. I would like to buy only my most favorite movies on Blu-ray, the ones I watch over and over (Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Incredibles, the Bourne series). I will not be suckered into spending all kinds of money to replace 200 or so DVDs my four kids, my wife and I own ourselves already.

Not more than another year or so

2. Can both formats survive? Sure, I bet on Blu-Ray to win, I like one Kingdom of Heaven Disc vs. 2 which would be on HD DVD (if it even goes there.) Could this be like -RW and +RW where both formats will continue to exist and be "standard"?

No. Stores are not going to stock essentially duplicates of 10,000 movies. With writeable discs they might stock 3-4 brands

3. This is about business and money, and both sides have a lot of stake, so do their stockholders. Thus, I see neither side giving up, and my favorite store in the world, Best Buy, will not take sides, but will sell both...

No, they'll chose at the latest when that first aisle starts to fill up.

4. I forsee a lot my dad says as being right, like IPods losing to smaller and smaller Laptops, and the Laptop becoming our TV, our satellite Dish, (My netflix now), Laptops even becoming our phones. Heck, Toshiba is selling a Laptop that you can plug into your home entertainment system that has HD DVDs, I am assuming Sony has one out too...(not to mention, I watch a lot of movies on my train rides to and from work)

Laptops are not designed to be used like a desktop is. They're simply not durable enough unless you spend $3-4000 on one. Battery life is not enough with the kind of horses HD playback requires to watch a whole movie anyway, and on a laptop screen the difference it makes is negligable over DVD.

5. Could both sides lose over time?

It's possible, but very unlikely

6. The Best Buy store I go to, now has Blu-Ray discs and HD DVDs the first stands you see in the movies section. They are plugging for people to stop buying DVDs, I can tell. Where can I get good UP TO DATE INFORMATION on the format war, who is winning, and what merchants like Wal Mart are planning on doing?

Here, The Digital Bits.com

7. I also see "less educated" consumers deciding this war. Most of my neighbors don't speak english well, and I see them running to Walmart, buying a cheap HD DVD player (which doesn't even play at 1080p, and they have no idea what that even is to begin with. Not to mention, three of my neighbors have their TVs in their garage along with a bar, so they have a completely different mindset than I do... I think those not as well informed buy more stuff nationally than us that spend the time researching products first, and I do think price will be a factor. Since I park my car in my garage, not the front lawn, to me, I want to buy the best...but I see most Americans no longer buying the best...thus, can the uneducated less knowledable make the impact I fear?

I don't think enough of them will notice before it's already over

[CptGreedle]

Welcome to the forums!
First thing first....

1) The war could potentially last until 2010, however the latest developments (and soon to be announced developments) show that this could essentially end as early as 2008! Don't bother replacing your DVD collection, they will look great on your Blu-ray player (although some titles you might want to upgrade anyways).

2) No. If both formats "survive", consumers will be scared away from the HD discs formats altogether. This is Micro$oft's plan, to support their format in hopes of using their Online Downloads service as a replacement. If people find 2 formats after 2009, it is likely digital downloads will take over. It would cost too much to release to both formats.

3) The side with more support and backers will eventually overtake the side with less. Sony has put more into this than Toshiba, as well as Disney and others. Microsoft is not as influential as they are made out to be, but will benefit from HD-DVD winning or both failing. Eventually the studios will give up when they see that the money is on Blu-ray side and there will be a lack of support on their own.

4) The miniaturization of technology is amazing. However companies fight fire with fire and always come out with something to counter their competitors. The iPod has not lost to laptops yet, and it is more likely it will become a "palmtop" computer, with the capabilities of a laptop but smaller and more focused on communication. It will be at least a decade or so before the next format will start to rear its head. The latest developments in Home Entertainment is called Super HD or Ultra HD... TVs capable of 4k or 6k images (right now they are closer to 2k). These are not due to make it to the market for another 20 years. Plenty of time to enjoy your Blu-ray discs. Besides, if they are as successful as we hope, all future players will be backward compatible for both DVD and BD.

5) Yes. Digital Downloads are gaining momentum and if nothing happens in a year or two to settle the format war, they will start to take over.

6) This is a great place for information. Ask and you will recieve. Every week we post the results of the Neilson report through Home Media, on Fridays. Keep your eyes open cause it gives the official numbers of the latest sales of both HD formats. Also, try www.eproductwars.com/dvd or http://www.blu-raystats.com

7) It is a fear that the cheaper product will win because it is cheaper, and not just inexpensive. However WB said something today I think is true... the format war is no longer up to the consumers, the choice has not been made in all this time so it is not going to happen. The companies have to make the choice for us by choosing sides. If they all buy the cheap player, but find their movies are out on the other player, they will have no choice but to realize they stepped into an ugly world of the format war they were oblivious to. It happens all the time. Tragic.

Hope that helps. Ta ta!

[PSA1]

Originally Posted by Widukind

Here is my deal:
1. I am new to the forum, and I just bought a Samsung BD-P1400. I love it! I am now totally on line, studying the format war, cause I chose sides!

2. My dad, recently retired, is a Geek type guy, former manager of IT at McDonalds Corp for over 25 years. He says, I am an idiot for buying now and chosing sides. He says digital downloads will replace everything, cause DVDs have had a life of like only a decade (he is assuming they will soon be obsolete for the most part).

3. I am an accountant, I am not a tech guy. I bought Blu-Ray for these simple reasons: I watch movies as like a hobby, typically see one a day. I prefer movies to look and sound great, and I have a nice new HDTV and stereo surround sound. I also chose Blu-Ray cause they had my favorite movie, the directors cut for Kingdom of Heaven. They have it on one Blu-Ray disc, whereas on DVD, the movie itself is 2 DVDs and the special features are two more DVDs (Like Lord of the Rings).
4. Now I am all into the format war and I want Blu-Ray to win, and fast. I have four kids, and spent a lot of money over a span of half a decade to get a lot of movies on DVD that were on VHS. I want to chose sides now, simply cause buying a movie for a little less on DVD makes little sense if it is a movie I will watch again and again. Thus, I would rather buy the best now...

Now for my questions:

1. How long can this format war rage on? I see no end in site. I would like to buy only my most favorite movies on Blu-ray, the ones I watch over and over (Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Incredibles, the Bourne series). I will not be suckered into spending all kinds of money to replace 200 or so DVDs my four kids, my wife and I own ourselves already.

We will know how long this war will last tomorrow, if Warner announced to drop HD DVD, I imagine it will only last a year or so more, I was thinking like you but I ended up replaced quite a few of my old favorite DVD with Blu, it just looks so much better.

2. Can both formats survive? Sure, I bet on Blu-Ray to win, I like one Kingdom of Heaven Disc vs. 2 which would be on HD DVD (if it even goes there.) Could this be like -RW and +RW where both formats will continue to exist and be "standard"?

Probably could but I hope not.

3. This is about business and money, and both sides have a lot of stake, so do their stockholders. Thus, I see neither side giving up, and my favorite store in the world, Best Buy, will not take sides, but will sell both...

4. I forsee a lot my dad says as being right, like IPods losing to smaller and smaller Laptops, and the Laptop becoming our TV, our satellite Dish, (My netflix now), Laptops even becoming our phones. Heck, Toshiba is selling a Laptop that you can plug into your home entertainment system that has HD DVDs, I am assuming Sony has one out too...(not to mention, I watch a lot of movies on my train rides to and from work)

Download HD still takes a long time even with high speed, and most people don't even have high speed yet so it will be awhile.

5. Could both sides lose over time?
Yes, this is MS plan, that is why they support Toshiba just to screw things up.

6. The Best Buy store I go to, now has Blu-Ray discs and HD DVDs the first stands you see in the movies section. They are plugging for people to stop buying DVDs, I can tell. Where can I get good UP TO DATE INFORMATION on the format war, who is winning, and what merchants like Wal Mart are planning on doing?

Here.

7. I also see "less educated" consumers deciding this war. Most of my neighbors don't speak english well, and I see them running to Walmart, buying a cheap HD DVD player (which doesn't even play at 1080p, and they have no idea what that even is to begin with. Not to mention, three of my neighbors have their TVs in their garage along with a bar, so they have a completely different mindset than I do... I think those not as well informed buy more stuff nationally than us that spend the time researching products first, and I do think price will be a factor. Since I park my car in my garage, not the front lawn, to me, I want to buy the best...but I see most Americans no longer buying the best...thus, can the uneducated less knowledable make the impact I fear?

Yeah they probably buy that cheap HD DVD player along with spiderman and will find out that it won't play. btw my reply are inline.

[Matt X]

Your dad might be right on some fronts, but current theories on why Microsoft is even involved in this war (M$ is an HDDVD supporter, why does a PC software Co. want to support ANY movie format?) is that they want to back a technically inferior product that does not hold enough potential to compete w/video downloads (as your dad mentioned). Basically the theory is that M$ figures they can make way more money controlling the download market, and can do it easier if they cause physical HD formats to fail (dragging this war out would work in their favor).

It's been mentioned before that physical media is the studio's "bread and butter" - I can't see them giving up on discs anytime soon - and speaking of soon, to answer your Q on when the war might end - maybe soonser than later. movie studios are looking HARD at the sales #'s this holiday season, and if BR comes out on top (so far it is, by far), more studios will go at LEAST "format neutral" (release on both formats), if not drop HDDVD altogether. as soon as that happens, war's pretty much over, BR wins, and you can relax.

[Sonny]

I Love Blu-Ray, I'm in deep.......very deep,and I love it but there are some Uni films I want so they better hurry up and go "BLU"! Physical media is not going anywhere any time soon . And when they start that down load crap that is going to sux balls, physical media will still be around even when that happens its not just going to disappear, I will be an old man or dead lol before down loads the ONLY way to get a film , and if it happens sooner SHOOT ME I'm just 26 & I don't mind dieing

[Widukind]

Physical Media sticking around?
I buy my MUSIC now totally downloaded. No physical CDs. While CDs still sell, I am sure their numbers are down, but I admit I have not researched this out. Also, knowing a bit about the music industry, it will unintentionally drive CD sales down. Most bands or teen age acts (who can't typically write their own music) get two good songs, and a bunch of filler songs, and a couple songs sell a CD. Now that you download, and you can hear a clip of the songs first, why buy the whole CD you won't listen to anyways??? Thus, I spend two bucks on two songs, as oppossed to the whole darn CD to begin with! Thus, CDs are a thing of the past now!

With Movies, I do beleive it will be different. First, you won't be allowed to watch more than the preview before downloading. Some previews portray a bad movie well...Second, DVDs take up a lot of space. I actually can fit them in 1/6th the space using slim CD cases. I like Blu-Ray cause its cases are slim, and allows me to keep the original package, without taking up much space. But my desktop and lap top can store lots of movies, without taking up my own bedroom, and my kids, or my livingroom. Again, space is the issue, this is why I chose Blu-Ray as well...

One shelf of a book shelf, or the whole darn shelf?

[U4K61]

I am almost sure blu will win - so long HD-DVD does not 'Take the Bat' as I read yesterday. Greater capacity, more industry support, movies, etc. So for the educated lot, we should know the outcome, the less educated, however, can skew this dispite the best efforts on our part. It seems the look and feel can exicite a fickle crowd wanting new gadget around the house. Take thoes $46 video games sets they sell at Xmas that play one game only. People forget or don't care it's only composite video with 80's style graphics. Why not just buy the game on DVD and use the console you already have? Why all the clutter. For some HD-DVD fits the bill as a new gaget. In the meantime, I am not ready to replace my 50" TV with a laptop or cell phone just yet, the 2'' screen dosen't quite mearure up.

[Widukind]

I will play devil's advocate with the above post. Yes, size does matter. However, the Laptop's own screen is your monitor on the road, but at home, you plug it into a huge monitor. My point is you can eventually (even now) have the LapTop be the DVD/BD player itself, that just plugs into the Media. Instead of buying a Blu Ray stand alone, I almost went the HD DVD route, with a Toshiba that would just plug into my home entertainment center. What scared me is the "cables" as well as the media. BD is better, and if you buy a lap top HD DUD player, and it plugs into your home theater, I was afraid it would not look as good as a stand alone BD player.

However, I am considering researching Sony laptops that would in a sense wipe out my Stand Alone player needs...maybe not for this year, but for next. Besdies, since I have a TV in my bedroom as well, and have just one stand alone, a second home Blu-Ray player is a smart decision, should that be a lap top that just plugs into the TV?

What does factor to a Lap top decision however, is the fact that on a desktop I can easily just buy a Blu-Ray drive, with Laptops, (I am an accountant, not a geek) I assume with Laptops you can upgrade memory over time, but the drive for discs may not be such the easy upgrade...again, I have to do research...

[CptGreedle]

I think the thing to remember about music vs movies is that music is much smaller and the quality difference is harder to hear.
Music tends to be harder to differentiate between say 320 Mbps, and 192 Mbps. Some can tell the difference, most can not. Because of this, it is easy to sell 128 Mbps downloads, a fraction of the quality of a CD, in exchange for the convenience of having all your music in one library, and on one computer/mp3 player. Plus, even iTunes is now selling higher quality downloads for a little more. The fact is, people find the ease of music downloads and the size convenient and easy, and far better than a library of CDs. Personally I own more albums than movies.
Movies are easier to notice quality difference. Sight is the strongest of our senses, and in modern society, it tends to be the most used sense as well (internet anyone?). It is easier to see the difference between a compressed cable channel movie, and an uncompressed Blu-ray movie.
It is also important to note that CDs are in stereo (with the exception of SACDs, music DVDs, and music BDs/music HD-DVDs). So all the information is stored in the file on the computer, just compressed to save space. A Movie however stores a soundtrack that is usually as long as an album and has surround sound. If digital downloads were to take over, everyone would loose their surround sound until they standardized a surround sound format. Even then hooking it up would potentially be more difficult.
Face it, movies have easier to see compression, more demand for quality, more channels of sound, and require more space. If everyone wants a compressed stereo 720p (or 1080i at best) movie on their computer.. leave me out.
I want the full quality experience! Give me the 7.1 Uncompressed Audio with a mostly uncompressed 1080p video!

[Matt X]

Originally Posted by Widukind

Physical Media sticking around?
I buy my MUSIC now totally downloaded. No physical CDs. While CDs still sell, I am sure their numbers are down, but I admit I have not researched this out. Also, knowing a bit about the music industry, it will unintentionally drive CD sales down. Most bands or teen age acts (who can't typically write their own music) get two good songs, and a bunch of filler songs, and a couple songs sell a CD. Now that you download, and you can hear a clip of the songs first, why buy the whole CD you won't listen to anyways??? Thus, I spend two bucks on two songs, as oppossed to the whole darn CD to begin with! Thus, CDs are a thing of the past now!

With Movies, I do beleive it will be different. First, you won't be allowed to watch more than the preview before downloading. Some previews portray a bad movie well...Second, DVDs take up a lot of space. I actually can fit them in 1/6th the space using slim CD cases. I like Blu-Ray cause its cases are slim, and allows me to keep the original package, without taking up much space. But my desktop and lap top can store lots of movies, without taking up my own bedroom, and my kids, or my livingroom. Again, space is the issue, this is why I chose Blu-Ray as well...

One shelf of a book shelf, or the whole darn shelf?

see my previous post - movies & music are different as far as revenue is concerned, IMO.

I've downloaded some music too, but I'll tell ya if I EVER get to downloading movies, ya better be damn sure I'm backing them up on PHYSICAL MEDIA (BR, anyone?). what if the HD that stores my downloads fails? OOPS! there goes my "collection". so why go through all the BS of doing that, just buy the BR releases. F*&k downloads.