My opinion: what will hapen in 2007 when an average person enters an HD Video shop.

[Dave]

Here is what will hapen in 2007 when an average person enters an HD Video shop:

-Hi. I want a HD Video player. What do you have?
-Well we have Panasonic, Toshiba, Sony, Sharp, Samsung, Lite On, Philips, Pioneer, Hitachi and many computer drive players. PS3 and xBox360 also can play HD Movies but i wont recomend it for a home video player.
-What is the diference?
-The Toshiba player uses different discs incompatible with others and is the chepest but not many movie studios release for it... The others are a bit more expensive although the actual movie discs are cheaper. The Panasonic model (for example) is middle priced.
-OK I will get the Panasonic (Blu-Ray) player

[ethan]

In 2008 :
[...]
- Oh I'm sorry sir, we don't carry the Toshiba brand anymore

[JTK]

Originally Posted by ethan

In 2008 :
[...]
- Oh I'm sorry sir, we don't carry the Toshiba brand anymore

IF a few things come down in 4th quarter of 06 (re: If BD comes out with shock and awe and does what they're supposed to do)...it won't even take that long.

Key word: IF.

Now I hope you don't mean the entire company of Toshiba being wiped out, because that certainly will not happen in any event.

[AV_Integrated]

I think one of the biggest pieces of news would be if Universal would decide to make all their movies in both formats. While not the only hold out, they are definitely the only major hold out from Blu-ray. I really think that software needs to be designed that'll take the HD-DVD master disc, and allow an easy porting straight to Blu-ray. Keep the VC-1 encoding, just transfer all the menu structure, etc. from HD-DVD format to BD compatible format.

I do see things happenning as listed above, but I really wonder if Toshiba is going to fold in less than a couple of years on this. They are banking a ton of money on HD-DVD being accepted.

On the other hand... as things really begin to kick into production I do see late 2007 as the time when we may not see HD-DVD actually costing any less than Blu-ray. Especially if the Toshiba player is subsidized right now.

[ethan]

Originally Posted by JTK

Now I hope you don't mean the entire company of Toshiba being wiped out, because that certainly will not happen in any event.

Of course not, I was just trying to be funny However I'd see toshiba getting their bluray players on the market very quickly, if hddvd fails...

[Dave]

Originally Posted by JTK

Now I hope you don't mean the entire company of Toshiba being wiped out, because that certainly will not happen in any event.

Toshiba is loosing money seling their HD DVD players in a lower price (underpriced) than their real cost. I hope they do not run out of spare money! I have nothing against Toshiba, i even use their betteries in my TV remote!

[hmurchison]

Wow rose tinted glasses.

Even in late 2007 the battle will still be strong and neither company will be looking to fold. I think many of you are supporting your chosen format fine albeit a little blindly.

Right now price is key to me and I haven't seen much that leads me to believe that BD will draw even with HD DVD in price. The Sammy player is $1400 Euros compared to the Gen2 HD-XE1 which is a superior player.

I'm anxiously awaiting the Sony, Pioneer and Panasonic launches though. Let us get the cards on the table and get things moving.

Can't wait for CEDIA. I think we need some new toys here in North America.

[Dave]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The Sammy player is $1400 Euros compared to the Gen2 HD-XE1 which is a superior player.

See latest news. The "Sammy" is

While it did show up for only $730 on Amazon.com yesterday, today the retail price displays as $799.99, with a list price of $899.99. Circuit City's website displays an on sale price of $899.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Dave

See latest news. The "Sammy" is

While it did show up for only $730 on Amazon.com yesterday, today the retail price displays as $799.99, with a list price of $899.99. Circuit City's website displays an on sale price of $899.

^^

The Sammy should have come out originally at no higher than $799 MSRP to match the Toshiba Xa1.

When the new BD players roll out, this thing's finished.

They should drop it to $499 come November, after the PS3 and the big boy hardware comes out.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Wow rose tinted glasses.

Even in late 2007 the battle will still be strong and neither company will be looking to fold.

Probably but I certainly am not 100% sure of that. If Sony starts putting out many more BDs of the quality that Tears Of The Sun apparently is and the Disney, Fox, Warner, and Paramount BDs look nice - this fall is going to help BD in a big way. By spring BD could have not only caught up to HD DVD in terms of quality, availability, and perhaps even pricing, but surpassed it. Of course this is just my opinion but due to HD DVDs struggle to gain more studio and hardware support I feel this is fairly likely to happen.

I think many of you are supporting your chosen format fine albeit a little blindly.

Agreed. I feel I personally got way too much into BD too soon and now I fear I may have gotten a bit further into HD DVD than I should have. The end of this format war may be years off or maybe even months off. Seriously, if all BDs start measuring up to good HD DVD quality this thing could be over very soon.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Dave

See latest news. The "Sammy" is

Dave that's Euro launch prices that I'm referencing with regard to the Sammy.

For the record I welcome lower BD player pricing and higher quality discs. This would remove the reservations I have thusfar about the format.

I'm not going to blindly support HD DVD as well. Robert from ValueElectronics stated that the HD-XA2 would likely be $999 and I don't think that's worth it. 1080p and HDMI 1.3 aren't worth a $500 premium IMO. Toshiba has to ship more players, woo more studios and bring on more vendors. Period.

I think they'll accomplish 2 our of the aforementioned 3.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by nyg

Probably but I certainly am not 100% sure of that. If Sony starts putting out many more BDs of the quality that Tears Of The Sun apparently is and the Disney, Fox, Warner, and Paramount BDs look nice - this fall is going to help BD in a big way. By spring BD could have not only caught up to HD DVD in terms of quality, availability, and perhaps even pricing, but surpassed it. Of course this is just my opinion but due to HD DVDs struggle to gain more studio and hardware support I feel this is fairly likely to happen.



Agreed. I feel I personally got way too much into BD too soon and now I fear I may have gotten a bit further into HD DVD than I should have. The end of this format war may be years off or maybe even months off. Seriously, if all BDs start measuring up to good HD DVD quality this thing could be over very soon.

You pretty much took the words out of my mouth.

I think it all comes down to the 4th quarter of this year myself.

If BD really does come out with the onslaught like indicators are starting to show us, and HD-DVD can't come back with much more than what it has now, I think it's going to be over with pretty fast after that.

"Pretty fast" being a relative term.

HD-DVD is a nice product, but if you can't come out with more CE support than Lite On, NEC, Toshiba, and RCA vs. the rest of the world practically, and Universal is the ONLY big name studio you have to your advantage AND if BD overcomes its early underachievments (already happening)...MS and Toshiba can only do much by themselves with HD-DVD. That's the bottom line.


EDIT: You're right Murch. I liked the xa1 a lot at the $699 I got it for with two free movies and a 4 year warranty, but a grand for that Xa2 is laughable.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Wow rose tinted glasses.

Even in late 2007 the battle will still be strong and neither company will be looking to fold. I think many of you are supporting your chosen format fine albeit a little blindly.

My post in another area on this forum explains when and why HD-DVD will be dead by 2008. Here's the LINK! It's comment #16. Of course, Toshiba's sales numbers are now at 50,000 players worldwide.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Ascended_Saiyan

My post in another area on this forum explains when and why HD-DVD will be dead by 2008. Here's the LINK! It's comment #16. Of course, Toshiba's sales numbers are now at 50,000 players worldwide.

Good post. I'm unable, however, to place faith in the PS3 being the "killer app" for HD movies. The PS2 was half the cost and didn't require a HDCP HDTV and it didn't exactly set the Hollywood on its ear with DVD sales.

If people wanted HD content that bad they'd be playing it on their HD DVD or Blu-Ray player right now. The PS3 is going to be about playing games first and foremost. Japanese kids are the most fanatical gamers that I've seen. Something tells me that movie sales will be high there but not significant enough to damage the prospects of HD DVD and the Xbox360 which will have a 3+ million player advantage and be quite the media centre extender with Vista from what I've seen.

The battle is going to be better in 2007 and hitting its stride in 2008. HD DVD will still be around. Toshiba's goals are for 200k players by end of 2006. By Xmas 2007 they should be flirting with a million players. How will content providers ignore that many people?

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Good post. I'm unable, however, to place faith in the PS3 being the "killer app" for HD movies. The PS2 was half the cost and didn't require a HDCP HDTV and it didn't exactly set the Hollywood on its ear with DVD sales.

If people wanted HD content that bad they'd be playing it on their HD DVD or Blu-Ray player right now. The PS3 is going to be about playing games first and foremost. Japanese kids are the most fanatical gamers that I've seen. Something tells me that movie sales will be high there but not significant enough to damage the prospects of HD DVD and the Xbox360 which will have a 3+ million player advantage and be quite the media centre extender with Vista from what I've seen.

The battle is going to be better in 2007 and hitting its stride in 2008. HD DVD will still be around. Toshiba's goals are for 200k players by end of 2006. By Xmas 2007 they should be flirting with a million players. How will content providers ignore that many people?

Xbox 360 will probably have a 3+ million player advantage, but remember they're not HD-DVD players. That is $200 add-on movie choice for Xbox 360 owners. The PS3 uses Blu-ray for games plus it's a movie player. That is additional functionality at no additional cost (because the Blu-ray drive's primary function is to play Blu-ray disc games). The movie prices are comparable to HD-DVD, but they already have a Blu-ray player in their PS3! Most people aren't even aware of the format war, but they know about the PS3 coming out! Movies will become more of a curiosity at first (I wonder what a Blu-ray movie will look like...Hell, it's only $28, pick it up).

Actually, the Japanese can light a fire under Hollywood alone. They will have a couple million people with PS3s right off the bat (and buying movies). HD content is big in Japan. They have been waiting for Blu-ray HD content (they have had the Blu-ray recorders for years). Right now, Hollywood has about 100,000 customers to provide movies to (in both format). Think about what 2 million Blu-ray customers would do for Hollywood. They would then head full steam into cranking out more content in that format and in greater numbers. It's the snowball effect from that point on. HD-DVD content will still come out at it's regular pace from their exclusive providers. The others studios will slow production of HD-DVD and ramp up Blu-ray movie production. Then, the stockholders will force the HD-DVD exclusive content providers to at least provide for both formats. Finally, production for HD-DVD movies will slow down and eventually stop. This should happen in 2008. IMO, HD-DVD will probably be dead before 1 million standalone units are sold due to lack of manufacturer support.

Gamers don't take lightly to others having a better gaming experience than they are having. More and more people will buy a PS3. I think they will be on track to above 80 million units sold by the end of it's life cycle.

[hmurchison]

It's plain old folly to think that 2 million game console buyers are chomping at the bit to play HD movies. They can have that now. HD DVD has almost twice the movies of Blu-Ray right now.

PS3 games are going to be expensive. Does Sony really believe the that world outside of fanatical Japanese will Pony up

$600 for the player.
$70 for each game

and still have oodles of money left over to gobble up a bunch of movies? That's a tough sell. The Xbox360 add on by virtue of it's non-gaming only utility guarantees movie watching. That's it's only function so I'd put more stock into 100k people buying this device having an impact over 2 million game consoles in movie sales/rentals.

I'm not even sure I want a PS3 as my BD player anymore. I'm probably just going to wait for a standalone and pickup an Xbox360 and Nintendo Wii for less than what one PS3 will cost.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

"It's plain old folly to think that 2 million game console buyers are chomping at the bit to play HD movies."

Did I say 2 million PS3 buyers are chomping at the bit to play HD movies? Please revisit the first paragraph of my last post.

You must not know Japanese people well. They have lots of disposable income because a lot of them still stay with their parents.

"PS3 games are going to be expensive. Does Sony really believe the that world outside of fanatical Japanese will Pony up"

Do you remember when games were $50? How many people are paying $60 now? If Microsoft goes up on price, it's ok as long as Sony doesn't?

You will get an overpriced GameCube--I mean a Wii ($225) and a Xbox 360 premuim-no HDMI-($400) for the price of a PS3 ($500) with no HDMI? Did you know that the Wii has the exact same processor as the GameCube? I guess a face lift, a tune-up, and new controller (Wii-mote) is worth the extra $126. But, getting a PS3 that cost Sony $900 to build for $600 is overpriced? To each his own. The Wii looks nice, though.

[Psiweaver]

All it takes is a few marquee blu-ray only titles that are released in stunning quality and that will shift the tide of public opinion then as more and more titles are released with amazing audio and video on blu-ray and more and more are completely exclusive people will see that they relaly must get blu-ray. as that shift happens universal will want to sign on too so as not to miss out on any profits and then hd dvd will be a very fast sinking ship.