Straw that breaks the camels back...

[d_rob1031]

I see people guessing when HD will fall but I'm more interested in what happens to make that move, not when.

So.. what do you all imagine being the one move that tips the market one way (towards blu, of course). I believe we can throw the obvious out... such as technical aspects and other known factors. Had those been the reasons it would have been decided long ago.

My prediction: I think if (or once, for the optimist inside me) Warner goes exclusive, more will follow quickly, pulling the last leg HD has left.

[USF Bull]

I say once blu-ray players reach under $200 and retailers only display blu-ray titles, that is when hd-dvd will fade into the sunset.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by d_rob1031

My prediction: I think if (or once, for the optimist inside me) Warner goes exclusive, more will follow quickly, pulling the last leg HD has left.

I agree. If Warner and New Line move to Blu-ray exclusively, the dominos will probably fall fairly quickly.

--Darin

[JohnGalt]

Possibilities in my mind: Warner going Blu-ray; Paramount & Universal going neutral; or a few major retailers (Wal-mart, Best Buy, etc.) dumping HD DVD in favor of the format the moves more product. Any of those, content is king but availability is a close second.

[d_rob1031]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Possibilities in my mind: Warner going Blu-ray; Paramount & Universal going neutral; or a few major retailers (Wal-mart, Best Buy, etc.) dumping HD DVD in favor of the format the moves more product. Any of those, content is king but availability is a close second.

Availability scares me a bit, we sell out of our players in NO time at the BB I work at. Which is a good thing on one hand but a terrible thing on the other. Double-edged sword.

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Originally Posted by USF Bull

I say once blu-ray players reach under $200 and retailers only display blu-ray titles, that is when hd-dvd will fade into the sunset.

Not the case. There are so many people who are getting to a breaking point after waiting so long that they are actually paying attention so that as soon as there is a victor they can get caught up. As long as 1 more studio goes Blu-ray exclusive, that is when the cookie will crumble and the tower of cards will tumble (specifically the tower built with hearts and diamonds... LOL).

[d_rob1031]

Originally Posted by USF Bull

I say once blu-ray players reach under $200 and retailers only display blu-ray titles, that is when hd-dvd will fade into the sunset.

BB already offers players at 199 (sony 300 and sammy 1400) if you buy a HDTV in the same purchase. We sold out in no time. We got a truck in tonight, I'm gonna do a count in the morning when I get there and see how long they last.

[reider]

Possibilities in my mind:

HD-DVD declared as format of choice by Al-Qaeda
Bill Gates had a Blu epiphany and joins BDA as Chief Architect
Opra and Dr Phil feature in a joint Blu-Ray advertisement campaign

And ok, the most realistic one... Warner goes exclusively blu

[radagast]

Originally Posted by d_rob1031

I see people guessing when HD will fall but I'm more interested in what happens to make that move, not when.

So.. what do you all imagine being the one move that tips the market one way (towards blu, of course). I believe we can throw the obvious out... such as technical aspects and other known factors. Had those been the reasons it would have been decided long ago.

My prediction: I think if (or once, for the optimist inside me) Warner goes exclusive, more will follow quickly, pulling the last leg HD has left.

I said this months ago: When the point of inevitability happens, we will look back and say that is when it happened. We may not realize it until later.
In other words, we may already have reached that point and will look back and realize it later.

[Go Blu]

Players selling out quickly is a very good thing.

It creates hype and demand. Which will in turn, sell more.

[hdalien]

Players at $199.99 and Warner, after that Para/Dream will join in 6 months and then it is just Uni supporting HD dvd, and it will fall.

[PossumPete]

I think it's already happened and we just don't see it (or it hasn't been reported). TV is king and I have never seen an ad for HD-DVD but you see them all the time for Blu. I think that is the measure that we're missing. Not everyone gets to see the sales numbers but everyone gets to see what is advertised on TV. You've got Wal*Mart and Disney filling their ads with Blu. These are the two major players in what we buy.

The war is over but nobody told us.

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by radagast

I said this months ago: When the point of inevitability happens, we will look back and say that is when it happened. We may not realize it until later.
In other words, we may already have reached that point and will look back and realize it later.

I believe that we've already reached that point. When folks on this list already noticed that at Target and BB and elsewhere, when the shelf space started declining for HD and increasing for Blu, that was the beginning of the end--and even before that when Blockbuster declared that consumer sentiment required that they only provide Blu.

Warner will be the more spectacular catalyst for further change--to the point that HD actually begins to disappear in store after store.

It happened (regarding shelf space) for laserdisc. Tower Records had a robust laserdisc section, and a huge VHS section. All of a sudden, really, this format called DVD began to take up shelf space. In a matter of a very few months, the laserdisc section shrank so noticeably--I looked and thought, "What the hell happened?" Then the VHS section began to (more slowly) decline as DVD grew almost exponentially. Eventually, the laserdisc section vanished entirely after a sell-off of remaining titles and VHS was now the niche section in the Tower store to DVD. (And the end came for me when even the Columbia House Laserdisc club ceased its existence.)

Any of this sound familiar?

-Greg

[The Don]

when Warner goes Blu and Universal supports both formats...

that will tip the scales so far into our favor that Red wouldn't be able to bounce back...

[SNAP]

Yes............What about Select-A-Vision??

Greg.......How many laserdiscs do you own??

Originally Posted by GregBlu5

I believe that we've already reached that point. When folks on this list already noticed that at Target and BB and elsewhere, when the shelf space started declining for HD and increasing for Blu, that was the beginning of the end--and even before that when Blockbuster declared that consumer sentiment required that they only provide Blu.

Warner will be the more spectacular catalyst for further change--to the point that HD actually begins to disappear in store after store.

It happened (regarding shelf space) for laserdisc. Tower Records had a robust laserdisc section, and a huge VHS section. All of a sudden, really, this format called DVD began to take up shelf space. In a matter of a very few months, the laserdisc section shrank so noticeably--I looked and thought, "What the hell happened?" Then the VHS section began to (more slowly) decline as DVD grew almost exponentially. Eventually, the laserdisc section vanished entirely after a sell-off of remaining titles and VHS was now the niche section in the Tower store to DVD. (And the end came for me when even the Columbia House Laserdisc club ceased its existence.)

Any of this sound familiar?

-Greg

[forumwriter]

Unfortunately, in my opinion, the only way to accelerate the adoption of Blu-Ray as the HD standard of choice is to sell the baseline players at the same price or below their HD-DVD counterparts. The (average) consumer is not interested in fancy audio formats and connections. They just want a cheap way to get High Definition movies onto their glorious new HD TVs and toss some sort of surround sound through their existing sound system.

I propose the following. A $149 or less Blu-Ray profile 1.1 player that has the following, very basic, specs.


Resolution : 1080i/720p

Many consumers at the cheaper end of the buying spectrum have displays that will only natively display 720p anyway. The 1080p is lost on everybody except purists and those with full HD screens. These are the people that can afford the more expensive units anyway.

Cinema 1080p24 : NO

Most displays don't know what to do with this anyway and most consumers will never notice.

HDMI : Yes, version 1.1.

Again, most consumers won't know the difference and this is sufficient for the format.

Analog Audio Out : NO / 2 (Cost)

There is little doubt that most surround sound systems have some sort of digital input. I feel that you could safely leave out the 5/7.1 analog out and the resulting cost. Possibly a simple L/R output could be left for legacy and for those people who chose to connect the player to a display with built in speakers.

Audio : PCM 5.1, DTS (Core), Dolby Digital (Core)

The player should be capable of passing the core Dolby Digital and DTS as bitstream over HDMI or Optical/Coaxial. It should also be capable of passing PCM 5.1 over HDMI as well as decoding the core Dolby Digital and DTS and passing them as PCM over HDMI.

DVD Upscaling : NO

The consumer is buying this as a basic HD player. One wants the consumer to purchase new Blu-Ray movies so the player should output DVD's at the same resolution as a regular DVD player. Let the display do the upscaling.

Region Coding : NO / YES

Although I would prefer to see no region coding at all, it is unlikely that this is going to happen for all studios. It is interesting that Warner are showing that region coding is not necessary. However, the region coding should be removed from DVD playback as many people have existing multi-region PAL/NTSC DVD collections.

Gimmicks : NO (Cost)

There is little point in loading a player with silly add ons like MP3 playback.

Ethernet : NO (Cost)

The manufacturer should provide hassle free firmware updates via discs that can be burnt for free via download or shipped to the consumer at cost.

Offers : Free and discounted Blu-Ray discs.

The price point I listed above should be for the unit only. A price point of $199 with at least 2 free top rated discs, 3 catalog discs AND an offer for discounts on further disc purchase should definately take this product over the edge.


Obviously the above requirements are very basic, but if one wants to move discs, the players need to be competitive and not resting on the laurels of the PS3.

Hopefully some manufacturers are listening.

[Blu-Dog]

I definitely think you're on to something here. Back when they were throwing the $99 HD-DVD players off the roof of Wal-Mart, most folks rushing to grab them didn't have a clue what the limitations were. And didn't care.

But they always find out, within a month or two - no reason to give them a case of "buyer's remorse" because they didn't get vital features.

Personally, I don't have any more interest in in PIP or any of that stuff than I do in the previews I have to fast-forward to - I want high end audio. But folks with a fairly decent home theater in the box, most of which cost about $600 and have HDMI nowadays, would feel good rolling the shopping cart out of the store with a hi-def player in it, too - for under a thousand bucks.

Your list would fit the bill, but my understanding is that it's the laser mechanism that costs so much - or am I off base?

[gandley]

it hinges on the studios. Support for hardware is everything.

If Warner move, New Line will follow. which way they go is key to the success of either format.
If they go blu and New Line follow, HDDVD dies instantly, thats it, there would just be no point in buying HD DVD with the overwelming support that blu ray would then have.
seriouly who would lay any money down on anything HD DVD then unless they already own players.

Its in WBs hands at this stage, they go and the dominos fall.

[Whytewash]

Originally Posted by reider

I guess, I had too much holiday booze ... sorry

That eggnogg will do that to ya!

[SNAP]

Southern Comfort Egg Nog is the best......w/a little Jack Daniels in it.

Originally Posted by Whytewash

That eggnogg will do that to ya!