Warner's Move Beginning of End for HD DVD

[Jeff®]

http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=156

January 5, 2008
Warner's Move Beginning of End for HD DVD

by: Scott Hettrick


How devastatiing to HD DVD is Warner's decision to stop supporting the format within 145 days?
Completely.

It's really only a matter of time now. The momentum hastening the demise of HD DVD began with Warner's announcement on Friday and is gaining steam as you read this.

Just think about it: What consumer is going to sink any or any more money in to HD DVD, knowing that there are only two studios supporting HD DVD and only one major CE company? What retailer is going to make additional space for the format?

That kind of thinking will feed on itself like wildfire.

I would be surprised if there weren't already meetings Friday among execs in the offices of Universal and Toshiba to figure out a graceful exit strategy. Paramount/DreamWorks leaders are probably praying that they can exercise an early exit clause in their agreement as soon as possible so they can get back on the Blu bandwagon.

You don't have to be a math wizard to calculate how Warner's decision spells the end of the road for HD DVD.

Warner has had by far the largest HD DVD market share of any of the three major studios. That will evaporate by the end of May and will begin to dry up much sooner than that with Warner's transitional plan to delay the release of HD DVD versions of each Blu-ray title by up to a month during that time.

Again, who would be foolish enough to buy in to any HD DVD product now?
Blu-ray has already been clobbering HD DVD by a 2:1 ratio in software sales all year long (sometimes as much as 3:1). Soon there will be no Warner HD DVD product at all. All Warner product on Blu-ray. Those numbers will easily swing to 75-25 or 80-20 in favor of Blu-ray in very short order.

Once again, we're talking the same kind of consumer as the laserdisc die-hards as the only realistic audience for HD DVD. Not exactly the Wal-Mart, Target, or Best Buy customers.

I may be missing something, but I can't see even a glimmer of hope for the severely listing HD DVD boat.

The only question now is how long Universal and Toshiba will hold on before abandoning ship.

One possible indication: Just 48 hours before it was to begin, the North American HD DVD Promotions Group (heretofore referred to in this blog as the HD DVD Propaganda Group, but there is no fun in kicking them when they are down) just canceled their much-ballyhooed CES media event scheduled for Sunday night at The Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas. Here is what may eventually be considered the first official flag of surrender by the HD DVD camp:

Subject: CANCELLATION NOTICE: CES press conf for NA HD DVD Promo Group

Notice of CES Press Conference Cancellation by North American HD DVD Promotion Group

Based on the timing of the Warner Home Video announcement today, we have decided to postpone our CES 2008 press conference scheduled for Sunday, January 6th at 8:30 p.m. in the Wynn Hotel. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

We are currently discussing the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluating next steps. We believe the consumer continues to benefit from HD DVD's commitment to quality and affordability – a bar that is critical for the mainstream success of any format.

We'll continue to keep you updated on new developments around HD DVD.