The Real Enemy: DVD

[powersfoss]

Guys, HD DVD is a has-been, deflated, pseudo audio/visual-o-phile, dead format. Let us set our sights on the real enemy in this war: DVD.

Let the BD - DVD wars begin!

[Zyclone]

blu ray needs way more numbers to even think about over coming dvd , just relax and enjoy the ride

[J_UNTITLED]

DVD is certainly going to be THE thing in HD's way as some people simply do not care about picture and audio quality as much as convenience and price.

[docjan_uk]

Meh, the only reason why HD DVD is an "enemy" is because it means not all studios put material on Blu-ray.
Once that's over, I don't care whether BD reaches DVD levels of penetration in the home movie market (it likely wont). Just so long as I can get my BD fix from every studio and every TV program for a reasonable price I'm happy.

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

Meh, the only reason why HD DVD is an "enemy" is because it means not all studios put material on Blu-ray.
Once that's over, I don't care whether BD reaches DVD levels of penetration in the home movie market (it likely wont). Just so long as I can get my BD fix from every studio and every TV program for a reasonable price I'm happy.

If there never comes a time when demand for Blu-ray is as or nearly as high as DVD then it will remain an under-supplied market and, worse, could very well end up going the way of Laserdisc and Betamax.

[docjan_uk]

It'll probably settle into some sort of equilibrium with downloadable content. A Large market, but in terms of percentage penetration, doubt it will beat the all conquering DVD.
Then again lots more people are getting richer in the world over the next fifteen years so theres lots of room to grow/space for BD & DL's.

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

It'll probably settle into some sort of equilibrium with downloadable content. A Large market, but in terms of percentage penetration, doubt it will beat the all conquering DVD.
Then again lots more people are getting richer in the world over the next fifteen years so theres lots of room to grow/space for BD & DL's.

DVD can't be king forever though as the future will ultimately bring something that knocks it down. Whether or not that something is Blu-ray is yet to be seen.

[docjan_uk]

Well my point is that DVD will probably be replaced with an ecosystem rather than one particular thing.
In terms of hardware, it might be BD, but a large portion of the market will likely be over the net.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by powersfoss

Guys, HD DVD is a has-been, deflated, pseudo audio/visual-o-phile, dead format. Let us set our sights on the real enemy in this war: DVD.

Let the BD - DVD wars begin!

I've started a thread about this before. We have to stop buying DVDs from studios that are dud exclusive.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

It'll probably settle into some sort of equilibrium with downloadable content. A Large market, but in terms of percentage penetration, doubt it will beat the all conquering DVD.
Then again lots more people are getting richer in the world over the next fifteen years so theres lots of room to grow/space for BD & DL's.

Downloads are not the way to go when you consider:

1) How long it takes to download 50GB
2) How much space it takes on a hard drive
and
3) recordable media doesn't last as long as pre-recorded media does.

[jw]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

Meh, the only reason why HD DVD is an "enemy" is because it means not all studios put material on Blu-ray.
Once that's over, I don't care whether BD reaches DVD levels of penetration in the home movie market (it likely wont). Just so long as I can get my BD fix from every studio and every TV program for a reasonable price I'm happy.

exactly, If bluray was available with selection of dvd , I wouldnt complain a bit. A lot of older folks just now updated to dvd because they got players as gifts and the price is dirt cheap. Blu-ray wont do them any good on them old 480i TVs

[GregBlu5]

The big transition will be when everyone has to have a Hi Def TV or a box to convert from Hi Def broadcasts to whatever regular TVs they're hanging on to. The vast majority of consumers have to get HDTV's *first* before they begin to think about Blu-ray player purchases.

Once they start to see TV broadcasts in Hi Def, and their old (cheap) regular DVD players begin to break and require replacement or won't work with their Hi Def TVs, they'll eventually have to purchase Blu-ray players (if Dud is gone) because they'll have gotten so used to Hi Def images and (many) won't settle for simply upconverted DVDs. (At this point, too, Blu disks will have dropped enough that the price difference won't be significant.)

It'll be a gradual evolution, certainly, that will gather momentum over time; but the biggest factor will be when Hi Def TV broadcasts are mandatory in the U.S., and consumers *have* to make some sort of move toward dealing with Hi Def-only broadcasts.

Hi Def TVs are still the biggest expense, at first, only then followed by the need for a Hi Def disk player.

-Greg

[thrlride]

I don't think blu will ever beat dvd. There are just too many people happy enough with DVD.

Most of my friends have HDTV but none have HD media. Heck, my wife hates when I change the channel from SD to HD broadcasting. I don't think the majority of the public really cares.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by GregBlu5

The big transition will be when everyone has to have a Hi Def TV or a box to convert from Hi Def broadcasts to whatever regular TVs they're hanging on to. The vast majority of consumers have to get HDTV's *first* before they begin to think about Blu-ray player purchases.

Once they start to see TV broadcasts in Hi Def, and their old (cheap) regular DVD players begin to break and require replacement or won't work with their Hi Def TVs, they'll eventually have to purchase Blu-ray players (if Dud is gone) because they'll have gotten so used to Hi Def images and (many) won't settle for simply upconverted DVDs. (At this point, too, Blu disks will have dropped enough that the price difference won't be significant.)

It'll be a gradual evolution, certainly, that will gather momentum over time; but the biggest factor will be when Hi Def TV broadcasts are mandatory in the U.S., and consumers *have* to make some sort of move toward dealing with Hi Def-only broadcasts.

Hi Def TVs are still the biggest expense, at first, only then followed by the need for a Hi Def disk player.

-Greg

Nobody has to convert to a high-def box.

You need to convert to *digital*, not High-Def.

There are a lot of cable providers which are already full on digital. Only a fraction of their channels are high-def.

[tiger roach]

Yep, more people need to get HDTVs before we can get them hooked on blu-ray.

So far, a number of people have gotten their first taste of HD and blu at my house and it tends to impress them.

I expect HD sales to grow steadily over the next couple years, then blu will begin to chip away at SD-DVD sales for real.

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Nobody has to convert to a high-def box.

You need to convert to *digital*, not High-Def.

There are a lot of cable providers which are already full on digital. Only a fraction of their channels are high-def.

Yes, but when *all* broadcasts are in Hi Def (if the U.S. gov. mandates Hi Def in 2009, say), if you do not wish, or cannot afford, to buy a Hi Def TV, you will *then* have to have a converter box that allows you to still watch cable on your regular TV because all of the broadcasts will be in Hi Def and your TV isn't equipped to handle Hi Def broadcasts. (If I understand what this eventual Hi Def broadcast mandated situation is all about.)

I mean, I went to Digital cable when I still had my regular large-screen TV, and I could still watch cable on my regular TV. But if all TV broadcasts, cable or dish, become Hi Def, then my regular TV--if I still had it--would *not* be able to handle those Hi Def broadcasts.

The big point right now is that I heard some months back that only 17 percent of American households even had Hi Def TVs, of any sort. (That figure may be up to 20-25% at this point, I dunno.) But those of us with Blu-ray and/or Dud players are in even more of a niche market than that Hi Def TV market. Until more households have Hi Def TVs, Hi Def players will remain in a niche. Even as DirecTV is going to have 100 Hi Def channels by the end of this year, that's going to be more of a driving force for people to buy Hi Def TVs. When more American households have Hi Def TVs, then the market for Blu or HD players will begin to increase far more significantly.

-Greg

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by tiger roach

Yep, more people need to get HDTVs before we can get them hooked on blu-ray.

So far, a number of people have gotten their first taste of HD and blu at my house and it tends to impress them.

I expect HD sales to grow steadily over the next couple years, then blu will begin to chip away at SD-DVD sales for real.

Honestly, it's been phenomenal at my house. I call it Hi Def envy. One of my good friends, upon watching just part of one college football game on my new Sony (and DirecTV), emailed me the next week, wanting to know when the Sony 70-inch was coming out, and he already has a Hi Def Mitsubishi.

Clearly, too, others to whom I've shown Blu-ray disks are immediately impressed by the PQ. Another friend and I did the Blu vs Upconverted trial, and he knew right away when he was watching Superman Returns in either Upconverted DVD or Blu. He obviously was impressed by Blu.

It does take all of us showing, and explaining, to friends and anyone else who stops by how much better the Hi Def experience is, and how Blu is the best player. Once the others do get HDTVs, the rest will eventually follow.

-Greg

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by GregBlu5

Yes, but when *all* broadcasts are in Hi Def (if the U.S. gov. mandates Hi Def in 2009, say)

This was precisely my point. The US government mandated digital, not High Def.

There is no mandate for High Def anytime in the near future.

Most big cable companies have already switched to both digital and analog, in 2009 they drop the analog.

That's it. Generally, what you have now is what you get in 2009 too, unless you are hanging on to the analog signal for some reason.

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

This was precisely my point. The US government mandated digital, not High Def.

There is no mandate for High Def anytime in the near future.

Ah, gotcha. My bad. (We gotta get the gov. to mandate Hi Def, dagnabit!)

However, it will still be HDTVs that drive the Hi Def player market. Once more households have HDTVs (and how can anyone, walking into BB or CC or even COSTCO, not be swayed to at least consider buying an HDTV?), then their regular SD players, when they eventually break, will likely get replaced by Hi Def players, when the prices become more competitive, as they likely will in the next year or so.

-Greg

[powersfoss]

Okay, so can we now set our sites on replacing DVD? Been waiting for this day. . . Blu Friday.