The Real Enemy: DVD

[GregBlu5]

The big transition will be when everyone has to have a Hi Def TV or a box to convert from Hi Def broadcasts to whatever regular TVs they're hanging on to. The vast majority of consumers have to get HDTV's *first* before they begin to think about Blu-ray player purchases.

Once they start to see TV broadcasts in Hi Def, and their old (cheap) regular DVD players begin to break and require replacement or won't work with their Hi Def TVs, they'll eventually have to purchase Blu-ray players (if Dud is gone) because they'll have gotten so used to Hi Def images and (many) won't settle for simply upconverted DVDs. (At this point, too, Blu disks will have dropped enough that the price difference won't be significant.)

It'll be a gradual evolution, certainly, that will gather momentum over time; but the biggest factor will be when Hi Def TV broadcasts are mandatory in the U.S., and consumers *have* to make some sort of move toward dealing with Hi Def-only broadcasts.

Hi Def TVs are still the biggest expense, at first, only then followed by the need for a Hi Def disk player.

-Greg