I'd like to see what you guys think of this article. I think this guy has the HDDVD love goggles on and can't see past his own nose:
Quote:
Has Warner's action destroyed the chances for HD optical media?
January 10th 2008 HDOM may never go mass market now, due to this poor decision? !
Most of what you see on this site have been commentary and opinion on various bits of news and gossip gleaned from "out there" on the progress of the so-called format war. However, I'm proud to say that this will be my first "rant". Why a rant? Because I'm very sad at what I fear may be the end of any chances of Hi Def optical media ever becoming a true mass-market product.
I do believe that Warner's action may actually have destroyed the chances for Hi Def Optical Media to ever become a mass-market success like DVD. I fear that the action Warner took was against much of their own internal research on which format was more commercially viable, and I am greatly disappointed to hear the rumors that they may have made this switch mainly for the"incentives" offered by the BDA.
We take note of insider commentary that Bluray does not presently have anywhere close to the production capacity required to supply a mass market, should BD player sales go "through the roof", whereas HD DVD does. We feel that the "Stepford Wives"-style statement from Warner that "The Customers Choose BLU!!" undermines their credibility, because about THREE TIMES as many buyers CHOSE specifically dedicated HD DVD players (nearly 1 million), purchased for ONLY that purpose (that includes the Xbox add-on) than chose Bluray dedicated players (350,000). It is said that most people who bought a PS3 did so as a game console, with Bluray playback not being a factor in their decision.
Personally, I have wanted HD optical media to be a rip-roaring success, since before the start of this format war. As a big buyer of the DVHS-based D-Theater system, I was keen to have more high-quality prerecorded films available to me for purchase. To me, D-Theater served as a great reminder that the "next" format had to be hugely commercially successful, in order for me to get my wish. After all, one could hardly expect to get thousands of movies available on any format if there were not millions of owners of dedicated players to buy them.
To me, HD DVD was the OBVIOUS candidate for that success, as HUNDREDS of HD DVD replication lines are already installed, available to meet the demands of going mass-market. Bluray, on the other hand, does not, from all indications that I can see. After all, it is said that Cingulus may only have sold EIGHT (8) Bluray replication lines in total. Sony may have sold a few more, but I have seen some talk that there is barely more than a dozen active Bluray replication lines in existence! (not including "pilot" lines)
On top of that, HD DVD replication, both for HD-30 and HD-15 discs top 95% yields on a regular basis, whereas Bluray yields are still said to still struggle at 45% to 70% for most BD-50 replication runs. It has been said that some specific cases have seen BD-50 replication runs achieve 79%, but that this is not common.
SO, I ASK THE READER.... How the HECK does Warner expect Bluray to be a mass market format when they appear to have NEITHER the replication capacity, NOR the production yields to keep up with demand, should Bluray players actually "take off"?? Does Warner believe that the BDA will want to sell millions of cheap $99, dedicated players if they are concerned that they cannot print enough discs to keep up with demand? Are we the ONLY observers to suspect that Bluray will keep player prices high, in order to slow consumer adoption, until they have enough replication capacity and yields to keep up? (especially if they are able to kill off HD DVD now).
How much does Warner want to BET that the cheapest Bluray players we'll see from China, etc, this year will be in the $300 to $500 MSRP range, rather than the $150 range targeted by HD DVD. Does it take a rocket scientist to figure out that $99 HD DVD dedicated players would capture millions of owners, compared to what $300 to $500 Bluray players would capture? How long will replication companies take to install HUNDREDS of Bluray replication lines, at over $1 Million each, LET ALONE Bluray replication lines that ACTUALLY WORK and provide competitive yields??
I am very much of the opinion that Warner, whether they actually realize it or NOT, may have COMPLETELY ruined the chances of HDM ever becoming a true mass market product like DVD. Bluray cannot support going mass market yet, and may well be doomed to remain a niche format for the next 2 years - by which time the fabled "window of opportunity" may be long gone...
And let's not forget that the US economy (and other western nations' also) is looking to be entering a full-scale recession as we speak! Not only are consumers' luxury purchases like home movies going to be hurt, but a MORE expensive, more "elite" pitch is likely to fail miserably in this environment. And replication companies? Are they supposed to happily dish out billions of dollars buying tons of new Bluray replication lines at a terrible economic moment like this, for a format that, even if the ONLY format, may not ever even be a commercial success? Suuure...... HOW could Warner have called this SO WRONG?!
In my view, Warner has ADDED TWO YEARS to HDM going "mass market" by choosing Bluray. Warner, I believe, has almost GUARANTEED that HDM will now miss it's "window" for consumer adoption. I do feel that if Warner had grabbed their cojones and chosen HD DVD, that the replication capacity available to HD DVD, and the flood of new and cheaper HD DVD players coming to market would have completely overpowered Bluray sales within the next 6 months, leading to the guaranteed defection of BD studios.
Instead, Warner talk of how their choice was the "quicker end" to the format war, as though somehow they have become completely oblivious to the obvious! Shame!
And now, we see views being published from "expert analysts" speaking about the Warner BD victory, and saying that HDM will "have arrived" or "made it" when there are 500 movie releases available, and how Bluray is "almost there". My view? RUBBISH!! 500 releases?? 500 Releases is mass market?! RUBBISH!! If that were true, then D-Theater could be called a mass-market success also.
No, not true at all, in my view. I was ready for THOUSANDS of HDM releases. I was ready for a format that could support many millions of dedicated players (not just a bunch of game consoles that most owners don't use for playback - unless you believe Sony's claim of 87%, har har!)
I was ready for a format that showed itself repeatedly capable of besting the PQ and AQ of Bluray, and that certainly was able to match it on the same material. I still am ready for this format - HD DVD.
Warner's announcement just before CES was clearly intended to try to drive a stake through the heart of HD DVD once and for all. But I hope it will not succeed so easily. I do not wish to wait years more for an HDM format that may end up remaining a niche product. Oh, the tragedy - how could Warner have called it so wrong?! Well... there is that rum our about $620 Million, of course...
HD DVD still has several advantages which they will certainly press home this year. It's success has certainly been made more difficult by what I regard as some serious back-stabbing by Warner, but it will not be giving up. I expect to hear a lot more from the HD DVD camp this year.
But at the end of the day, it is truly my distinct impression that Warner may have permanently ruined the mass-market chances for HD optical media by making what I consider to have been a misguided decision supposedly to get HDM to mass market sooner, which would seem, to some, to make sense only on the grounds of the aforementioned $500 to $620 Million that they are rumored to be getting in exchange.
A HALF BILLION DOLLARS, or more, could make anyone's research a moot point, I guess?
I really do worry now that, in three year's time, the only entities that may have benefited from HD optical media will have been the studios who got paid-off by the billions, and the companies who sell Bluray replication machines. I truly fear that the consumer may be stuck with only several hundred movies on HDM, not the 10's of thousands of choices on DVD today.
Color me sad... not blue.
THis guy is such a dumbass its painful to read. His points are ludicrous. He is stuck in the now and expects Bluray players to be expensive forever. He assumes replication is still an issue. And yet he DOESNT realise that going red-ex wouldnt have given a clear winner and thus doomed HDM. WHat a moron.
It seems like ever HDDVD fanboy out there is writing his own article how HDDVD would have been the better format. Funny how the guy does not say anything about how now that it is basically over Toshiba is extending the war by lowering player prices.. Oh well some people can never be changed.
I read this kind of article and I envision someone who had bought over 100 HD-DVD's and at least two HD-DVD players (one first generation model and a newer one during the $99 dumping). Now he's complaining because "Warner made the wrong decision"? Ha!
Nothing positive in this. Just whine, whine, whine, whine....
Give me my two minutes back for reading this garbage please.
EDIT: I read the quoted article without noticing the web site it came from. If I had seen it was from rdjam's site I wouldn't even had bothered looking at the quote. Just more FUD from a HD-DVD extemist who has had his parade rained on.
If you click on the link to his little fanboy site, don't forget to be a nice little visitor and click through on the link to vote on the bd vs hd dvd thing
What bothers me is that before I got my Blu-ray player, I was researching on both sides of which format was superior (although I always believed it was Blu-ray), and who was winning with sales, and there were several websites stating that HD DVD was selling more players, or that Blu-ray was selling more movies, etc.. I kept reading conflicting information and I didn't know what to believe, but I knew that someone on one side was lying because I read a supposed "fact" from one website, and then read the exact opposite from another.
It's people like this guy and websites like these that confuse and misinform the consumers so they can't even think for themselves. Instead they take the information that they read and make an assumption on it, then either make a purchase that is not completely based on truth or no purchase at all because of the confusion. I can't stand it!
I came to believe that Blu-ray was the definitive winning format after reading an unbiased website on their stats, and judged that the Blu side was being honest, and the Red side was doing the deceiving.
Before we had either format, my dad was talking about purchasing an HD DVD player because of their price, but I informed him of what I had been researching on both formats; both the cons and the pluses. I can just say now that I am glad I did thorough research on both of them and have made a final decision by purchasing a Blu-ray player.
This guys view of this situation is so emotional and convoluted it is hard to follow his argument, and when he does make a clear point it is just flat wrong... its not even worth arguing with these types of people.
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Here, pick this guys "POV" apart:
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